RosterResource Chat – 3/14/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! This is the last one before official MLB games are played and second-to-last before official Opening Day.

Still plenty of intriguing roster battles. Check out our MLB Opening Day Tracker to see which players are still left in camp. Best way is to click on the “Not On Projected Roster/Still In Camp” drop-down … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker/padres?s…

Here we go …

Zach: Is Robert Hassell III going to have a real role on the Nats this year?

Jon Becker: Maybe after the Trade Deadline if they’re out of contention and move Bell, or if Bell just isn’t hitting enough, though they could also move Young to a bench/defensive replacement/pinch runner role if Hassell forces things. But he’s coming off a really bad year and they’re going to need to see more than a great Spring Training in a small sample.

Buff: Does Brett Baty seize the Mets’ 2b job and run with it?

Jason Martinez: That was my thought as soon as the injury was reported and still my projection … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mets

Baty is having a great camp. He should be adequate at 2B. Acuña has not done much this spring and he also didn’t really hit much in the minors last year. People just remember how impactful he was in his short stint and assume he’s going to be the 2B now. That doesn’t mean the Mets aren’t thinking the same thing. Just seems like Baty has earned the job (vs RHP).

Snoo: What do you make of the SS playing time situation in Detroit. Baez has actually had a stronger spring than Trey Sweeney, so do you think maybe he gets the first crack at the gig (hard to believe he’s still only 32) and gets more than 400 PA?

Jon Becker: I think it’ll be Sweeney’s job every day, at least against righties. It’s possible, though, that Báez actually starts at 3B after playing there for the first time in a while a day or two ago. Jung hasn’t looked good and thy might want to give him more AAA time.

Cromulent: What would it take for Shane Smith to break into the ChiSox rotation?

Jason Martinez: He’s probably earned it. But I think he threw less than 100 IP last season and will be limited. If he starts in the rotation, he’s not going to finish there. Easier to do if you have him pitching multiple innings out of the bullpen. Bryse Wilson should also be adequate as the No. 5 SP for a month and then he can move into a multi-inning bullpen role. That’s how I think it will go. But Smith is forcing their hand.

Easy E: It feels like we’re on the cusp on a major breakout for Gavin Williams (health pending). Do you agree?

Jon Becker: I don’t like to read too much into Spring Training performance, but he’s also always had such good stuff and just didn’t have the performance to match last year. Not a stretch at all to say he could be their best starter this year even if Bibee is still really good.

POTATO_CANNON: Amador to get a bigger callup this year, and is it entirely predicated on a Thairo Bounceback?

Jason Martinez: Seems like they’re all in on Thairo at the moment. They’ve even anointed him as their No. 5 batter in the lineup. Amador wasn’t ready last year and I think the plan is for him to get a full season in AAA. Of course, if he’s hitting and Thairo is not, things could change.

wheelhouse: just how bad is the yankees’ pitching depth after injuries to Cole and Gil? bad enough to view this as an inevitable gap year in their closing window?

Jon Becker: It’s pretty rough beyond the top five options with Hampton out for the year too. But I’m always hesitant to say the Yankees have a closing window. They’re certainly worse now than they were when they ended the season, though.

Schlittlerature: How many PA do you see Hunter Goodman getting given his strong spring and that also it’s the Rockies?  I’m skeptical Bryant, Beck and some of their other projected starting options last long, and I hope HG hits his way into more PT

Zach: How many at bats should we expect for Jacob Stallings?

Jason Martinez: I have Goodman with over 300 PA as a C/1B/OF/DH. With Romo officially optioned, he will also get a chance to be the backup catcher. Will be a bit more challenging to prove himself with the bat since he has a lot more on his plate because of catching duties. But there’s a good chance he can at least stick in a David Fry role and maybe even more if Bryant can’t stay healthy or Toglia, Beck, etc. aren’t productive.

I have Stallings getting 50% of the starts as of now.

clydethedog: Does Baldwin have a real chance to make opening day roster?

Jon Becker: Assuming this means Drake Baldwin, absolutely, we have him as their starting catcher right now. Sale has liked working with him and that matters even more than the offense since his stay could be pretty temporary.

Guest: Hey Jason, Al Riccobono here. I know that Kim is not traveling with the Dodgers to Japan, but are you confident that he is the every day second baseman when they get back at the end of the month? That being said is Edmond more appropriate in the outfield long-term than listed at second base as he will be for the first two games?

Jason Martinez: Hi Al. Kim was optioned to AAA so the plan is to let him get comfortable down there for at least a few weeks before they have to make a decision. Presumably, this opens up CF for James Outman or Andy Pages, which means Tommy Edman will play a lot of 2B early in the season.

drplantwrench: im starting to lose hope about my angels already… can you guys spin up some hope to get me through spring training?

Jon Becker: Mike Trout looks healthy and like himself, Schanuel’s working on bat speed and power to all fields, Ben Joyce threw 104 yesterday! I’m not expecting them to get to .500 but I think they’ll be better than last year.

Robert: Drew Avans has come out of nowhere Why do u like him over the competition?

Jason Martinez: For that final bench spot, I’m just going with the guy who is having the best camp and that’s Avans. I’ve had Esteury Ruiz there because even if he doesn’t play much, he gives them some blazing speed off the bench. But he can’t hit at all and the A’s probably want him working on that very important skill in AAA. Max Schuemann also has a good chance because of his defensive versatility.

POTATO_CANNON: Is Colson up in May and this send down just an excuse, or are they really losing interest in him being a big part of 2025?

Jon Becker: I think he’ll be up soon, and May might even be pessimistic. Don’t think it’s an excuse since they can get PPI if he’s up within the first two weeks of the season and wins ROY. He was slowed with back tightness for about ten days and they just felt he ran out of time, though it’s not like they’re really teeming with options at SS, so I was surprised to see him sent down so soon.

Doc Estes: Mets bullpen behind Diaz…some say Stanek is the next right hander, Closer depth chart shows Butto.  What is the argument for Butto?

Jason Martinez: I actually moved AJ Minter back to the SU8 role now that he appears to be on track for Opening Day. I would guess that a closer committee is likely if Diaz were to get hurt. And that’s the “many good options” closer committee as opposed to “closer committee because there are no good options”. Stanek, Butto, Minter, Garrett are all capable of closing out games. And if whatever Kranick is doing this spring carries over, you can also put him in the mix. But who’s the “next in line” change from week to week in regards to who would get the first save chance.

TD: What do you think of the Padres LF/DH options? Heyward looks washed, do you see them dropping him before opening day?

Jon Becker: Not impossible to think they’d dump Heyward with Gavin Sheets hitting so well, but it’s also Spring Training, and it’s not a great look to future free agents to give a guy a guaranteed deal and then cut him. Just about everyone on the team will get PA at DH, but probably primarily Arraez, Joe, Iglesias (assuming he makes the team, which he will).

Guest: Has anything in Spring Training shed more light on the Heim/Higashioka split in playing time?  Do you still think its pretty much an even split?

Jason Martinez: They can’t totally ignore spring stats (Higgy has been great, just like 2024; Heim continues to not hit) but I think the plan is to be as close to 50/50 as possible and then go with the hot hand throughout the season. If anything has changed, I think Higgy’s chances of starting on Opening Day and getting a slight edge in playing time have increased.

Spherical: When will teams start putting injured players on the 7-day IL?

Jon Becker: Teams can only backdate IL (10 days for position players, 15 for pitchers; 7-day is only in the minors) stints by three days, so there’s no point until ILing anyone until Opening Day. Not sure they’re even allowed to until then.

Cromulent: If spring training dispatches are to be believed it sounds like the race for the Royals fifth starter is pretty close between Bubic and Lynch. Could you elaborate on why you have Bubic fifth and how close this race might actually be?

Jason Martinez: As long as the Royals are going to give Bubic a chance to start, it’s going to be in the beginning of the season or not at all. Once he’s back in the bullpen, where he dominated last season, it will be difficult to build him back up.

Guy: Chances of a majors roster spot for Ben Brown and Heston Kjerstad?

Jon Becker: 95%+ for Kjerstad and maybe 50/50 for Brown? O’s are going to mix and match a lot; Brown is on the travel roster to Japan and they still have time to decide between Brown, Rea, and Wicks for the 5th SP spot.

br0wnpants: Do you guys envision Donovan Solano getting any time at 2B for Seattle this year? Seems like his projected role is limited if they enter the season with Tellez on the roster and the offensive floor of Moore/Bliss is pretty low

Jason Martinez: Probably not much 2B. He’ll catch everything but doesn’t have the range to play there anymore. He’s fine at 3B. I think the plan is mostly DH/3B and occasional starts at 1B/2B. Should get 300-400 PA.

Easy E: Are the Brewers viewing Garrett Mitchell as a full time OF heading into the season?

Jon Becker: Absolutely. It’s Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, and Yelich for the three spots but Yelich will spend a lot of time at DH. Perhaps Frelick or Mitchell sit against lefties for Canha, Capra, or Durbin but they won’t be fully be shielded from southpaws either.

Arno: Given Giolito’s delay, how do you see the Fitts/Priester battle for 5th starter playing out?

Jason Martinez: Good chance they’re both on the roster (Giolito, Bello on IL) unless Criswell or Newcomb win a spot. And then they should each get at least 2 regular season starts. Maybe 3. That’s a good opportunity to prove they belong when the Red Sox need a starter again.

drplantwrench: How much do you guys read into Spring Training stats? i feel like its hard to ignore great/terrible performances, but at the same time, none of this really matters

Jon Becker: I personally don’t care much at all except for guys who are actually fighting for spots, when the performance can actually be a needle-mover. But it is fun to see which definitely-on-the-roster players have new pitches, throw harder, hit the ball harder, or are trying out new positions, regardless of results.

Jason Martinez: Lots of roster battles are so close that the spring stats will be a deciding factor. But it’s really up to the team to determine whether it matters or not. Like, Gavin Sheets will destroy AAA pitching and it’s not a surprise that he’s crushing the ball in ST. That could mean absolutely nothing but he has supposedly made changes in his hitting approach. So the Padres would have to determine if the improvements are real and will help him during the season. Because he won’t do this against MLB pitchers during the season if he’s the same guy as he was with the White Sox the past 2 years.

Rose: Odds Mason Montgomery is the Rays closer by seasons end?

Jason Martinez: It’s the Rays so who knows what they’ll do. I think it’s more likely that they use him in a multi-inning role with occasional save chances and then give him a chance to start again heading into 2026. If he becomes their “closer”, he’s probably there in the bullpen for good. I don’t think that’s the plan.

AL Central Casting: Assuming no injuries over the next few weeks, candidates for the final two position player roster spots on the Twins seem to be down to Lee, Julien, and Gasper. How do you see this shaking out?

Jon Becker: Lee and Julien has been our projection all offseason and I think we’ll stick with that unless the Twins give us reason otherwise. Gasper being able to catch would help his case on a lot of other teams but not a ton for a team that has two catchers entrenched.

Phil: Is Yoshida more hurt than the team is letting on (again), or is he still just not a great roster fit? I am not reading every single word of Red Sox coverage but I just feel like I’ve barely seen his name all spring.

Jason Martinez: I think it’s no longer a great roster fit and the fact that he hasn’t been able to play defense makes him a bad bench candidate. I haven’t changed the projection yet because he has been DHing and that’s what his primary role has been. But they might put him on the IL to start the season. Devers would be the DH, Bregman would play 3B, and Kristian Campbell (or someone else) would play 2B. Then they’ll worry about what to do with Yoshida later on. There is no doubt that they have tried to trade him and will continue to try. He can hit. Just not enough for the amount of $ he makes.

You say goodbye, I say Halo: Would the Angels be better off making Trout the full time DH and putting Soler in RF?  Or at least have them split duties at both positions?  Sure, it’s a massive defensive downgrade in RF using Soler, but if you really want Trout healthy, playing RF every day will still leave him more vulnerable to injury.

Jon Becker: I remember reading at some point in the last couple years that the Angels were concerned about Trout DHing actually being worse because he’d just end up taking swings in the cage all the time in between plate appearances and put more wear on his body than he would running around for a handful of plays in the outfield. He’ll get his share of DH time just to keep him fresh but Soler in RF is a disaster that they’d like to avoid having to watch too often.

David: I think your roster resource is wrong about the Dodgers CF. All the buzz out of camp is that Pages will make the team over Outman

Jason Martinez: I think that was the buzz for most of camp but Outman has made it a close call. He was also pretty good a couple years ago and the Dodgers haven’t forgotten that. Their bench is all right-handed hitters, too, so I think Outman could get an edge by giving them a left-handed batter to play CF. With that said, the Cubs are starting two LHP (Imanaga, Steele) so Outman won’t start in the Tokyo Series. And then they’ll decide prior to 3/27 whether to carry Outman or Pages.

Jason Martinez: I’m RosterResource, by the way.

Chip: Any doubt that Nolan Jones is starting and playing 140+ games?

Jon Becker: I think he’ll be the starting LF to open the year, but 140+ games is pretty high to me. Bouchard and Beck could both start against LHP to push Jones to the bench, and if Jones hits like he did last year he won’t hold the starting spot very long with Veen and Yanquiel potentially debuting this year.

diadem: Please list the minor league SP in the NLthat will have the greatest impact in 2025.

Jason Martinez: A few that should pitch in the majors in 2025 … Dollander (COL), Mathews (STL) Lowder (CIN), Chandler (PIT), Sproat (NYM), Painter (PHI)

Uncle Festa: Best guess at a current NL setup reliever who emerges as a closer?

Jon Becker: Jeremiah Estrada, though it might not be this year. His fastball has always been ridiculous and he finally found a secondary pitch that works for him in his splitter. Suarez faded towards the end last year and it’s really tough to succeed throwing almost-exclusively fastballs (unless you’re Sean Doolittle). Jason Adam’s another option from that same bullpen.

War2d2: Any insight on why David Robertson hasn’t been signed yet? I realize he’s 40, but he was worth almost 2 WAR as a reliever last year. Feels like someone should be knocking on his door. I was hoping the Cubs would bring him back, but apparently they’re going after Lance Lynn instead

Jason Martinez: A lot of the veteran players who have already made plenty of $ aren’t interested in taking a deal that is less than what they believe they are worth. They are also mindful of how taking a deal that is less than their perceived value negatively affects future free agents.

Jon Becker: I’m sure he’s had offers but when you’ve accomplished what he’s accomplished and made the money he’s made, might as well be picky about $ and team.

Closer sweepstakes: Who do you guys think will lead these teams in saves:  Boston, Detroit, Kansas City, and Arizona?

Jon Becker: I’ll say Hendriks, Foley, Estévez but not by much, and I’ll go off board for the Dbacks and say Drey Jameson emerges as the guy, freeing up Puk and Martinez to be used as firemen.

Colaaa: Why is the Kirk starting games projection so low when he’s strong defensively and the backup C is no good?  Seems maybe an artifact of the Jansen era?

Colaaaa: Can’t help feeling like PT projections for Herrera are low… if he’s as strong offensively as many experts think he will be, will he really cede 250 PA to the punchless Pages?  I wonder  if his PA will be similar or less than Bart, Wells etc.

Jason Martinez: I have Kirk with 67% of the starts, which is a lot these days. Keep in mind that 3 very good catchers (so far) are already hurt and will begin the season on the IL. And it’s a long season. With that said, I can see Kirk getting closer to 75% if he stays healthy.

I have Herrera with 60% right now and I would say that there is a better chance it’s closer to 50/50 because of Pages’ defense. If Herrera hits and plays good enough defense, I think 60-65% is realistic, though.

Bucs 3b: Just tough it out with Hayes’ sub par bat at third?

Jon Becker: Yep, he’s making real money and is a fabulous defender so he’s got the job. He just might not ever lift the ball consistently, which makes slightly-above-average (which with his glove could still be a 5+ win player) the best we could hope for him in a full season.

Sean: I’m curious to hear your thoughts on the Pirates catching situation. I assume Bart in, but is there a scenario where Endy and Henry Davis both make the team? Will those guys see time at 1B/DH or DH/OF, respectively?

Jason Martinez: Endy hasn’t played 1B at all so I think that’s probably not in the plans. I think there are enough at-bats between backup catcher/DH to make it worthwhile to keep one. But it wouldn’t surprise me if they both started the season in AAA and they went with Jason Delay, who is a more traditional backup.

Insert Witty Name Here: Not a roster question, but thoughts on having some sort of pitch count minimum and maximum for the days starting pitcher? Have to throw 70 but no more than 100 would seem like it would bring back the old days (the 90’s? Ugh….)

Jon Becker: I’m more in favor of a codified minimum than a maximum, since there’s that built-in maximum of 100ish that managers employ 99% of the time anyway. My concern is that there would have to be so many reasonable enough carveouts to the minimum (injury, reaching X number of pitches in a single inning, giving up X number of runs, etc.) that the rule wouldn’t change all that much. I guess even a few fewer quick hooks is better than nothing, though.

Farlehh: Do you see Tirso Ornelas winning a starting role out of camp, and do you think he’ll keep it? Not such a highly rated prospect but maybe that helps him get his shot now

Jason Martinez: He’s making a strong case for Opening Day but I think it’s more likely he gets the call later in the season if Heyward has a sub.700 OPS in mid-May or June. Less pressure on him that way.

Shawn miller: Landen roupp winning the 5th starter job?

Jon Becker: It’s looking more and more likely every time I see how he or Harrison pitches, Harrison just isn’t doing well with the lower velocity and Roupp’s curve is a legitimate 80-grade pitch. Keeping an eye on Birdsong here, too.

Redlegs: How do you think Francona handles 1B?  Is it time to unleash CES?

Jason Martinez: I think it’s up to CES. He hits the crap out of the ball so it’s difficult to leave him out of the lineup when he’s on the roster. But if he looks more like the 2024 version (.513 OPS), he’ll be lucky to not get sent to AAA.

Davy Andrews: Hey guys!

Jason Martinez: Hey Davy! Big fan.

Alex Bregmans 3B Glove: Just wanted to say, as someone who reads many chats from many different sites, I really appreciate the level of detail and consideration you guys give to every question. Almost every other chat I’ve read would give one word answers to where you put real thought into what you say, and it’s truly lovely

Jason Martinez: We appreciate it! Not good at all with the quick/short answers. The goal is to reply with a thoughtful answer within 2-3 minutes of posting the question.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Enjoy the Tokyo Series (official games!!!) and we’ll chat again next Friday.