RosterResource Chat – 3/19/26

Jason Martinez: 7 days until Opening Day (6 days until SFG vs NYY)!!! Another fun offseason is almost in the books. Thanks to everyone who has participated in these chats. We enjoy it.

If you’re not already familiar, you can keep close track of each team’s final roster competitions with our Opening Day tracker (as well as many other RR features). I’d recommend the “not on projected roster/still in camp” filter.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker?status=n…

Here we go …

ER: Should Blackburn or Yarbs start as the 5 while Gil works out the kinks in AAA?

Jon Becker: I could definitely see this, and not just because Gil has been inconsistent with both performance and velocity this spring.

Moving Blackburn or Yarbrough to the rotation until Gil’s back on track (or Rodón is back, whichever comes first) opens up a spot in the bullpen. Right now, with Gil in the rotation, they’ve got six spots filled, so two for:

Cade Winquest (R5, can’t be optioned)
Osvaldo Bido (out of options)
Jake Bird
Brent Headrick
Yerry de los Santos

I don’t think they’ll try to force Bido onto the roster just because he can’t be optioned, but moving Yarbrough to the rotation would allow them to squeeze Winquest, Bird, and Headrick on the roster.

Rob A: Hey there – thanks for the chat and all the good work! I saw a report that the Twins will use V Caritini as the DH1 (as you also have it) so I’m wondering if you see a path to him exceeding your 400 PA projection?

Jason Martinez: A few factors to consider. He’s a steady bat who could hit in the middle of the lineup and can either catch, DH, or play 1B. So he should be a valuable player for the Twins and will be in the lineup on close to a regular basis as long as they are competitive. But once they’re not, Caratini becomes either a trade candidate (as a backup on a contender) or not a priority to play as much so the Twins can get a closer look at their younger group of players.

Best-case for Caratini getting closer to 500-550 PA is that the Twins are better than expected and he just plays 4-5 days per week for the majority of the season or he’s traded to a team that uses him as often.

Oaktown Blues: Will Zack Gelof make the team out of ST, and if so where does he get ABs?

Jon Becker: Not implausible that he’d get a platoon OF/superutility spot over Colby Thomas or Carlos Cortes since he’s getting time in CF this spring, but he’s only gotten into six games and my best guess is that he’s going to end up a little too far behind in game reps to end up on the roster. But he’s back in the field after shoulder surgery quicker than we thought he could be and has struck out way less in his limited ST time, so it’s very possible he works his way back into being a big part of the roster.

John: Biggest spring movers in terms of playing time projection / fantasy value? Maybe Coby mayo?

Jason Martinez: Off the top of my head, it’s probably Owen Caissie since he had very little path to playing time before the trade and then a clear path with Miami post-trade. Harry Ford’s value is probably higher after his trade because there is a path to him being a regular catcher with the Nats. But he was locked in as the Mariners’ backup catcher (with some opportunity for at-bats as the DH) at the time of the trade so his projected PA didn’t go up that much.

Mayo went from almost 0 PA (pre-Westburg injury) to close to 200 PA with a path to stick in the majors if he performs well. But if Westburg returns to healh and can play 3B without any issues, Mayo could be out of the mix again. Especially if he doesn’t hit in April/May.

Atlanta Fan: Who has more innings this year: Ritchie or Fuentes

DP: Didier really made his case – what are the factors working against him breaking camp with the big club?

Jon Becker: I’ll answer these two in tandem. I think considering how good Fuentes’ spring has been and adding in the fact that he’s already on the 40-man, he’ll have more MLB innings this year. But the Braves have a very inflexible pitching staff in terms of who can be optioned. Between SP5 and the last two bullpen spots, you have to pick three of (* = out of options):

Bryce Elder*
Dylan Dodd
José Suárez*
Fuentes
Ian Hamilton* (could also be ILed since he was behind with some nebulous “discomfort”)
Martín Pérez (NRI, can opt out)

Right now we’ve got Elder for the rotation and Dodd and Suárez in the bullpen, but perhaps Fuentes gets SP5 and Elder ends up in the bullpen? Two long-reliever types in a bullpen isn’t really sustainable, though.

Erick: parker messick is not currently projected in the guard’s rotation. when do you think he makes his first start of the year there?

Jason Martinez: At the moment, it looks like Allen vs Messick for one rotation spot to begin the season. For what it’s worth, I have Messick with 23 projected GS and Cantillo/Allen with 21 each. So it’s just a matter of how they distribute the starts throughout the season. Cantillo is out of options and I don’t think he’s going to be in the bullpen early on, unless it’s a hybrid long-reliever/spot starter role. Allen was in the WBC and then had a rough outing when he returned. Messick doesn’t have an official appearance since 3/9 but haven’t heard anything about an injury.

To answer your question, though, I think the Guardians will roll with a 6-man rotation occasionally and will do so for the first time by mid-April.

Doc Estes: Just saw your comment about two long reliever types in the bull pen not being sustainable.  What do the Cubs do with Rea and Assad both projected for the pen?

Jon Becker: Good point. I think with Rea and Assad we’ve seen enough of a stuff uptick in shorter bursts where you’d be fine with throwing them for a higher-leverage inning if needed. Not sure we’d get the same with Suárez and Elder but I like to say that Opening Day rosters are just one of 162, and there’s nothing precluding the Braves from deciding to go north with as many of the OOO guys as possible and then pivot pretty quickly.

Johnny5Alive: What do the Mets do with Vientos?

Jason Martinez: He’s out of options so he’s going to be on the team. If they were going to trade him, it would’ve been earlier in the offseason and not now that his trade value is not likely to be great after his terrible spring. I think he’ll start vs LHP and possibly in some favorable matchups vs RHP with the hopes that he can regain some confidence in that limited role. The good news is that they’re not entering the season with Vientos being an integral part of the regular lineup, although it could reach a point where he’s not productive enough to stick on their bench and will either have to phantom IL him or trade him as a change-of-scenery candidate.

Brian: Why wouldn’t Milwaukee start megill to build value to trade. Why are we assuming uribe is the guy.

Jon Becker: I doubt teams who would want Megill now or at the deadline or at any point before he’s a free agent at the end of next season are going to care too much about what role he’s pitching in at the time and his raw save totals. If he had never closed, sure — I think there’s value in wanting to see if he has “the closer mentality” — but he’s got experience there. In fact, I think the willingness to do whatever probably increases his value.

Tim: Even assuming Casas comes back at full health on time, there doesn’t appear to be a clear path back onto the MLB roster without an extended injury (Wong could play 1st in a pinch). Is he just hoping for a trade at this point?

Jason Martinez: I’m sure the focus for Casas and the Red Sox is getting him back to full health before either is thinking about what happens later in the season. At that point, if things haven’t changed — still no path to MLB playing time and Casas is healthy and productive in AAA – there would be a good chance that he is traded either by the deadline or in the offseason. But his trade value isn’t going up until he’s back on the field and putting up good numbers again.

JamesStirling: Who will have better stats at the end of the season, Taylor Ward or Mike Trout and who will have more saves Estevez or Dominguez?

Jon Becker: I’ll say better rate stats for Trout, better counting stats for Ward. Just can’t count on Trout to stay healthy and even if he is there’ll be days off worked in, I’m sure.

As for saves, I’m starting to get pretty concerned with Estévez’s lack of velo (he averaged 88 yesterday), and I don’t think it’s something we can assume is just going to flip on like a switch right when the season starts. So I’ll say Domínguez there.

ACC: Your feelings on Carson Williams staying long term with Rays. You think he can do 20 hr/20 sb upside ?

Jason Martinez: His struggles in 2025 were the reason he wasn’t going to be the starting SS on Opening Day. Too much pressure early on. But Walls’ injury opens up the door for him to be the starter now with a chance to keep the job. If he gets 600+ PA, there’s no doubt he can go 20/20. But there might be too much swing-and-miss for him to be consistent enough for him to keep the job. The “downs” in that type of up-and-down season will be too low to stick with. At least in 2026. And Ben Williamson might be legit competition for the SS job.

Espresso: Will Konnor make the team and can you see him staying up all year ? Batting high or low in order?

Jon Becker: I don’t see him making the team at this point unless they agree to an extension before the season starts. He really had to force the issue, and he’s had some nice moments but isn’t lighting the Grapefruit League on fire by any means. Once he’s up — extension or not — he’s the type of guy you want to be up for good, not a guy you rush and have him end up back in Triple-A.

matty25: You have Leo Jimenez starting in AAA, but he’s out of options, meaning he’d have to clear waivers. Do the Jays really risk that? They could option Lukes instead, but that feels dirty given he was hitting 2nd in the World Series.

Jason Martinez: I guess we’ll find out soon how much the Jays value Jimenez. Good chance he makes it thru waivers if he doesn’t make the team. And, if not, the Jays can find similar players to stash in AAA for infield depth. Lukes was such an important part of the 2025 team. Would be insulting to send him back to AAA.

Legalese: When a player (LaGrange) is not even on the 40 man roster, will he be: reassigned/demoted/optioned or just quietly leaves? Does a 26 man roster (Jasson) lose his 26 man spot, and retain his 40 man spot? Thank you.

Jon Becker: Love a good nomenclature question. Players not on the 40-man are reassigned when they don’t make the roster out of spring training and then (in most cases) head over to minor league camp, though in some cases they’re invited to stay in MLB camp even if they’re not going to make the team. Someone like Jasson would be optioned to the minors and keep his 40-man spot.

miacono: Who will get the most PA @ 1B in Colorado?

Jason Martinez: Still a TBD and it hasn’t changed too much from my early offseason assessment, which was Johnston/Crim platoon to start the season. Rumfield gets a chance as the “vs RHP” at some point. If someone like Amador, Ritter, or Karros force their way into the starting lineup, Edouard Julien would also get a lot of 1B starts. And then, if Charlie Condon has a big season in the upper minors, he could be the starting 1B by season’s end.

Only thing that has changed with 1 week to go is that Rumfield/Johnston is a very close competition and it could go either way.

Current projected playing time … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker?status=n…

GBS42: Do you expect Eldridge to make the Opening Day roster for SF, and how many games at 1B do you think he’ll play this season?

Jon Becker: I’d be very surprised if he didn’t. He’s still striking out a lot but that might just be part of his game, and otherwise he’s done everything they could have asked from him so far. Right now we’ve got a vast majority of his playing time at DH, with 84 PA (20ish games) at 1B.

Max: The battle between Mick Abel and Zebby Matthews for that 5th MIN rotation spot seems tough. Abel has looked great and Zebby still has options, but it still feels like the org may go for the guy who’s been there longer. What confidence level do you have in predicting Abel gets that spot? Thanks for doing this and all your work!

Jason Martinez: Both have been in the majors. Both struggled. But since Zebby is a homegrown guy, I gave him a slight edge throughout the offseason. But that’s not enough to hold off a guy who has been nearly perfect in ST (13.1 IP, 2 ER, BB, 17 K) when Zebby hasn’t been very good this spring. Still unsettled but Abel is clearly winning the competition based on ST numbers.

Max: Eloy Jimenez has been a nice surprise in ST, but I can’t see how TOR would get him on the roster. What’s your best guess about what they do?

Jon Becker: I just saw a couple days ago that he doesn’t have an opt out at the end of spring training and also told Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet that he’s willing to go to Triple-A, so I think he made that decision a lot easier for the Jays, frankly. Would be a really inelegant roster fit for right now and it’s probably a relief to the Jays that they don’t have to risk him opting out and going elsewhere.

Kumar Rocker: I have had a nice spring. Will I start more than 17 games for the Rangers this year?

Jason Martinez: Rangers signing another lefty reliever, Jalen Beeks, may or may not be related but I took it as there’s a good chance that they’re ready to roll with Jake Latz and/or Cody Bradford (when healthy) in the rotation for as long as they’re effective. Of course, injuries should play a factor and Rocker is also the kind of pitcher who will be difficult to ignore if he’s dominating in AAA. Once the Rangers decide he’s ready, it probably won’t matter how effective Latz has been as starter.

17 is a good over/under. I have him projected for 16 starts and some reliever innings.

Joey Jojo Jr. Shabadoo: Who ultimately makes the 5/6 man rotation in Houston? Weiss and McC have been really good this spring. Should they make the roster as SPs since they’re stretched out?

Jon Becker: McCullers definitely has a spot along with Brown, Javier, and Imai. Burrows has a 0.00 ERA this spring so he figures to have one, too. So that leaves one spot (if they do in fact go with a six-man) for Weiss, Arighetti, Blubaugh. Have to think Weiss is the front-runner since he’s making guaranteed money and has been really good this spring, as you said.

O’s Need a Miracle: Will Gunnar receive starts at 3B should Mayo falter, and if so what’s your best estimate of how many?

Jason Martinez: Not sure there’s a reason to stick him at 3B unless whoever is next in line if Mayo struggles is a better defensive SS. And that’s probably not the case. Blaze Alexander, Jeremiah Jackson, or Weston Wilson would probably be in the mix to step in at 3B. But that should tell you that Mayo will have a very long leash. He’d have to be really, really bad to get demoted to AAA within the first month.

Jace, The Mind Sculptor: There doesn’t seem to be an obvious spot for him, but I have a hard time shaking the feeling that Nathaniel Lowe is, like, the third best hitter on the Reds and they’re a much better team with him batting fifth or something… Do you see an avenue to that happening? Maybe Eugenio Suarez could pull off the Mookie-style late career shift to the middle infield?

Jon Becker: Maybe they can squeeze Lowe on the roster as a bench guy over Myers or Benson and he gets starts over Stewart or Hayes against some especially tough righties but I don’t see Suárez playing anywhere but DH, 3B, 1B this year. I think Lowe is certainly better than he showed with the Nats and Red Sox last year but third-best on the team feels pretty optimistic on Lowe and/or pessimistic on the rest of the offense.

Nationals: They sent down Hassell and Diaz. Does that mean nunez opens at an everyday player?

Jason Martinez: I think you mean Abimelec Ortiz (not Diaz), who was probably the best candidate to play 1B if they wanted to keep Luis Garcia at 2B. Now, barring a last-minute addition — there should be at least a few veteran 1B available — Nuñez is set to get the majority of starts at 2B.

Projected Opening Day roster … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/nationals

Ryan: Would love to know more of your thoughts on Josh Smith (TEX). Is he the everyday 2B? Does he continue to move around? He finished the year hitting leadoff, does that stick?

Jon Becker: Based on how their roster’s shaping up (positions seem pretty rigid assuming health), I think Smith will mostly be 2B and they’ll use Haggerty and Durán as the Smith-type super utility men. I’d think Smith will be in the bottom third of the lineup with Nimmo-Langford-Seager set as the top three.

Oddball Herrera: Think Colt Emerson actually makes the OD roster?  If he plays well, what happens when Crawford is healthy?  Young is looking pretty good and Donovan is presumably their regular 3B

Jason Martinez: I don’t think they’d add him to the 40-man and call him up for a temporary MLB stint. So unless Crawford’s injury is more serious than what is being reported, I think they’ll roll with Leo Rivas as the SS if Crawford needs a short IL stint to begin the season. Emerson has good numbers this spring but doesn’t appear as ready as Wetherholt/McGonigle.

Jace, The Mind Sculptor: I don’t want saves… got a thought on which NRI RP will be in a position to get the most holds in 2026? Loaisiga? Sborz? Someone else?

Jon Becker: Those are both good picks, though Loáisiga might be in “danger” of getting saves if you’re avoiding those entirely; Sborz feels a little further back in the pecking order to me. We’ve also got Cionel Pérez (WSN), Andrew Chafin (MIN), Ryan Borucki (CHW), and John Brebbia (COL) projected on Opening Day rosters.

Jason Martinez: Gregory Santos (SFG) probably has the highest upside of all the NRIs. But I moved him off the projected Opening Day roster because (with no explanation) didn’t pitch for like 2 weeks. He’s back now and should eventually be in the bullpen as long as he stays healthy. But not on the Opening Day roster for now.

miacono: Does Nathan Church StLouis , get the majority of ABs or does Baez come up early?

Jason Martinez: Church and Nelson Velazquez should get a lot of playing time while Nootbaar is on the IL. How much they play once Nootbaar returns will depend on their performance, but Victor Scott and Jordan Walker also need to hit for them to keep their jobs. Both have struggled badly this spring and could head back to AAA if Church and/or Velazquez continue to hit during the regular season.

Wham-O: Where do we see Luis Acuna actually playing?  How much.

Jason Martinez: I’ve had him in a platoon with Brooks Baldwin in CF with the expectation that he’d also get time at 2B and SS. But Baldwin hasn’t played in 2 weeks due to an elbow injury and I just moved him to the projected IL today with Acuña now the starting CF … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/white-sox

With the way Acuña has hit this spring, there was a chance he’d win the CF job regardless of Baldwin’s health. Now, he should have a clear path to keep the job.

Doc Estes: Is Sean Manaea out of the Mets rotation to start the season?

Jason Martinez: Still no indication whether they’ll go with a 6-man rotation but there are enough off-days during the 1st month where it’s not necessary. Based on ST performance, Manaea’s probably the odd man out. But it’s a small sample and the Mets don’t want to move any of their top 6 starters to the bullpen early in the season and throw off their routine. My guess is some minor injury will allow them to move 1 of the 6 to the IL to begin the season and then they’ll figure things out as the season progresses.

Doc Estes: RR chat is my favorite Fangraphs chat and one of my favorite features of the website.  Thanks for what you do and keep up the good work.

Jason Martinez: Thanks Doc! Saying nice things to us doesn’t guarantee we answer your question but I did make sure to answer one of yours before responding in this case.

This will never be a rapid-fire chat but hopefully the 2-4 minute wait is worth it with the thought we put into the answers.

Jason Martinez: Thanks again for joining us. We probably won’t have a chat next Thursday because it will be one of our busiest days so we’ll be back in 2 weeks.