RosterResource Chat – 3/21/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the final RosterResource Live Chat of the 2024-25 offseason! We will continue into the regular season at the same day/time next week.  

Here we go …

David Wiers: What do you think the odds are Yoho breaks camp with the Brewers? They’re down a few arms already, and his stuff is nutty.

Jon Becker: He just got reassigned a day or two ago, so barring another injury he’ll be starting in Triple-A. But he should be up very, very soon. Awesome spring after an awesome 2024.

Jason Martinez: I had finally moved him into the bullpen once they announced Mears would begin on the IL. And then he got reassigned the next day. I think they’re prioritizing length early on so Elvin Rodriguez makes sense. The Craig Yoho Experience will be in Milwaukee soon.

Guest: In reading comments of fans, I get the sense that they underestimate how much teams value roster flexibility (i.e. players with options left). That flexibility works against the lower-level veteran free agents. Teams are more concerned with this than the fan bases are, no?

Jason Martinez: I think all but a very small % of baseball fans ignore a lot of important factors that are considered over the course of 162 games. And many of that small % is here and are very familiar with RosterResource. My goal has always been to make a lot of those things (options, service time, etc.) a lot easier to understand with how I present them on RR.

DB: Did players in Japan for the opening series gain extra days of service time for being on the roster?  How does that work for things like arb clock, etc

Jon Becker: They don’t get extra service time since there are always extra days in the MLB season anyway (only need 172 days for a full year of service and the season always has at least 182 days), but it does count towards accrued service, they get MLB pay, all that. And they get to hang out in Japan a few extra days; not a bad gig if you can get it.

Mark: Will there be updates to pitchers playing time in the Depth Chart projections? Looking at Fitts who   still is projected for only 3 starts and 47 innings this year.

Jason Martinez: Maybe a bit after they announce the SP5. There are limitations with SP because we only use 100% and can’t really take into account that there will be an injury or two that would open up another 15-20%. And I currently have to include Fitts (2%), Priester (1%), Criswell (1%), Newcomb (1%), and Sandoval (1%). Bello and Giolito are expected back soon and Kutter Crawford will return in the 1st half. So there are not really a lot of IP for Fitts, etc. unless another injury occurs. There’s a chance that Fitts is so good that they just move Crawford to the bullpen when he’s healthy. But I’m not gonna assume that.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Dom Smith opted out… I mean this respectfully, but in what world did he expect getting a major league job based on his track record? Isn’t he just opting out to go play AAA for some other team?

Jon Becker: This question is a great chance for me to debunk a common misconception! In the context of players on minor league deals, opting out isn’t the same as it is for players on MLB deals where they immediately become free agents. You’re basically telling teams “I’m exercising my right to free agency if you don’t add me to the 40-man roster within X amount of time.” Usually it’s within 48 hours, but for some players it’s 24 or 72.

Some players also have upward mobility clauses, wherein their current team has to find a team willing to add them to the 40-man before going ahead and releasing them if there are no takers.

With Smith (who, to actually answer your question, I agree might have a tough time finding an MLB job) and Garrett Hampson, we don’t know if they were informed they wouldn’t make the team and as such exercised their opt out, or if they just wanted to force a decision/get clarity for themselves sooner. We’ll know soon enough!

Confused: Patrick Corbin has been shockingly consistent for the last four years at 170 innings of 5.7 ERA / 5.9 xERA / 5 FIP.
Is that really preferable to whatever depth arms are floating in Texas’ system? It feels like a white flag signing.

Jason Martinez: The other options at this point are Dunning and Houser. Maybe Caleb Boushley or David Buchanan. So I think they were desperate enough to give Corbin a MLB deal and $1-2MM just in case he can be a half-way decent innings-eater. And if not, it’s not a big expense.

Dodgers Blue: Who are the Twins going to clear out to make room for Zebby in the rotation?

Jon Becker: They already sent him down and settled their starting five of López, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, and Woods Richardson, so I don’t think clearing someone out is imminent. But being (at worst) 7th on the SP depth chart means there are still plenty of starts in his future; even teams who have amazing health luck with their starters will need spot starters or doubleheader guys sometimes.

sho: Does Brooks Lee stick at 3B this year?

Jason Martinez: Not really. Some combination of Jose Miranda, Willi Castro, and Brooks Lee will play 3B whenever Royce Lewis is on the IL. If Lee hits, I think it’s more likely he takes hold of the 2B job.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Dodgers optioned Knack, Outman, Sauer, and Wrobleski the other day….who do you think makes it back up first?

Jon Becker: I’m always going to pick pitchers who can provide starts or quality long relief, so either Knack or Wrobleski. Probably just depends on who’s freshest whenever they need an extra arm for a spot start or to pick up some slack if the bullpen is gassed.

Dan H: Apologies for just not getting it, but how do I change roster resource to display the lineup vs lefties? I am sure this is obvious…

Jason Martinez: It’s a common question but we don’t have that option yet. This is a temporary solution …

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/rosterresource-projected-lineups/

Jon is learning how to code so I’m going to bug him to build a very useful “Lineups vs RHP/vs LHP” feature eventually.

Tom: Is Hye Seong Kim still expected to be called up by the Dodgers now that they are back from Japan?

Jon Becker: Nope, they’ve committed to starting him at Triple-A. He controls his own destiny at this point; if he proves he’s ready they’ll make room for him and just rearrange again.

RAGBRAI: How do you see saves shaking out in the Miami bullpen?

Jason Martinez: Faucher’s stuff if legit. He just needs to be a bit more consistent. It should be his job to lose and the guys behind him aren’t good enough to push him for the job unless he struggles badly. Anthony Bender is the only other guy with experience. Tinoco is a journeyman who seemed to finally figure things out. But that’s a big TBD.

Bernie: What are the Brewers doing with Turang? A position change sounds like an odd wrinkle to throw into the mix…

Jon Becker: After all the back and forth in Spring Training, they’re just going to roll with Turang at 2B and Ortiz at SS, which I believe has been our projection all offseason anyway. They tried both this Spring but Turang has had some shoulder soreness crop up and they don’t want him making the longer throw.

Guest: What would you say is the weirdest move (or non-move) made by a team this offseason

Jason Martinez: The Cardinals doing absolutely nothing. And that doesn’t mean “nothing” like they just didn’t do a whole lot. They did absolutely nothing until signing Phil Maton last week.

Jon Becker: Not a transaction but I’ll go with the Astros moving Altuve to LF. Would be one thing if they were accommodating Bregman but they’re just accommodating Dubón, who could just play LF anyway. Altuve had gotten really bad at 2B but he can do a lot more damage out in LF, when a misplay can be two or three bases instead of just one.

Kate: Is Kumar in the rotation or is he still fighting for a spot?

Jon Becker: Fighting for a spot, though he settled in nicely yesterday and probably put himself ahead of Houser, who had a worse start in the other game. deGrom, Eovaldi, and Mahle are locks, and Leiter should just about have a spot too. So it’s Rocker, Houser, Dunning (who’s been bad) for one spot, assuming Corbin starts out in extended spring or the bullpen.

Baseballshark: Veen & Beck. Does someone win the job or do they platoon until there is a winner?

Jason Martinez: Speaking of the Rockies, they just announced that Thairo Estrada will miss 1-2 months with a fractured wrist.

My updated projection … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rockies  … still has Jordan Beck in RF and Veen on the outside looking in. Also not sure they’d just keep Beck if he was going to platoon. Both need regular at-bats.

Rockies were all in on Beck going into spring and the beat reporters were confident that it was his job to lose. But I think he hasn’t really done enough. Veen is unproven and hasn’t played too much over the past 2 seasons due to injury. So I’m just not sure the Rockies will give him the starting job based on 30-40 spring PA. It’s definitely become an interesting position battle.

Jon Becker: Veen’s also struck out 31% of the time this spring, so that’s a concern he’s not really allaying.

Robert: How does the Marlin starting staff shake out?

Jon Becker: Sandy, Meyer, and Quantrill have three spots, and they really only have two other starters left in camp in Gillispie and Junk. They could bring Bellozo or Mazur back up since they’re on the 40-man and Junk isn’t, but they’d have an open 40-man spot for Junk if they DFA Seth Martinez (out of options and not on their projected roster) so that’s not a big hurdle.

Jason Martinez: Raise your hand if you had Connor Gillipsie and Janson Junk as their SP4/SP5.

RyanW: Who takes the opening day 2b job for Boston?

Jason Martinez: I’ve gone back and forth the last week and Alex Cora had some recent comments that made it seem like Kristian Campbell wasn’t making the Opening Day roster. But they’ve gone with him in a lineup with mostly regulars several times since. Today’s lineup includes Campbell at 2B and it does look like an Opening day lineup. And they’re facing a very good SP (Mitch Keller). So, based on that, I do have Campbell in there now …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

chaim bloom: cards been saying all offseason, every chance they get, Gorman pa target is 550-600. are projections too low

Jon Becker: I think there can be a big gap between what a team would like to do and what it can actually do in practice, because who are you realistically taking PA away from to get Gorman another 150-200? Guys can and will get hurt but outside of that (and we don’t really like to assume injuries for position players like we can sorta imply with pitchers when we do PT projections) I don’t think there’s much more than the 406 we have him projected for up for grabs.

DB: A lot of muddled bullpens in Pit, Arz and Cin. Some favorites to close; but what are some folks who may emerge by May or August?  Not as we sit today.

Jason Martinez: Reds are interesting because Alexis Diaz does not have enough of a track record to go into the season with much room for error. Tony Santillan is interesting. I’d think Pagan and Rogers would be part of a committee if they go in that direction. If we’re talking about 2nd half, keep an eye on the progress of Luis Mey and Zach Maxwell. Both throw 100+ MPH.

Jon Becker: For Pittsburgh I think Bednar’s got the job indefinitely unless he’s really bad like he was to start last year, in which case it’s probably Holderman. Diamondbacks aren’t going to name someone before the season but teams who do that generally still settle on one guy, which I think would be Martinez, or Puk if it’s lefties coming up.

BCubs: Will Doval have any shot to regain his closer status?

Jon Becker: Sure, closer is the single hardest job in MLB to keep. Walker can always stumble and Doval can look more like his old self. There are exactly zero closers in the league whose jobs are 100% assured and it’s certainly not for a more unproven (but great!) arm like Walker.

RAGBRAI: Jared Jones, best guess out for a month or two or likely out for the season/TJ?

Jason Martinez: My guess is TJ surgery ASAP so he has a decent chance to return in the 2nd half of 2026. But if this drags on beyond April, my guess is he’d try to rest/rehab and hope to pitch again later this season. But I’m pessimistic with this kind of stuff. Because it almost always ends with TJ surgery.

Jon Becker: I think it got snuck into the initial report that there was still discussion going on or a second opinion or something, which means it’s not just soreness, whatever it is.

Olerud Slides: What are the chances Whitlock closed in BOS?

Jon Becker: Non-zero, but he’s probably at best fourth in line after Chapman, Hendricks, and Slaten (in some order). He’s pitched like himself this spring so he should be in high-leverage from the jump, though.

SBru: What are your projections for S Torkelson this season ?

Jason Martinez: I currently have him with 364 PA, which is about 250 more than I had him early in the offseason. Most of the projections systems have him as a slightly above league average hitter. If he’s better than that, it will be difficult to send him back to AAA. But if Colt Keith progresses and looks comfortable at 1B, Tork is limited to a platoon bat vs LHP unless Kerry Carpenter ends up playing a lot more OF than he has in the past.

copecru: What is the latest on Parker Meadows?

Jon Becker: The Tigers just released their (very thorough, which we appreciate!) injury report that says he’s “completing conditioning, defensive drills, & rehab daily” which leads me to believe he’s not hitting or throwing yet. Won’t be a ton of time to ramp up once he starts doing those things but every day he’s not doing that makes it less and less likely it’s just a minimum stint on the IL. Doesn’t seem like a huge deal though.

Kate: Shane Smith made the team, seems like you all think it’s prob pen to start, maybe rotation later?

Jason Martinez: That was the initial projection. Long reliever with maybe a few spot starts. The main priority for a Rule 5 pick is to just keep him on the roster long enough to retain his rights. And then the White Sox would have a high upside arm under team control for 5 more seasons. But he’s been so impressive this spring that he might be more than just a potential high-leverage bullpen arm/back-of-rotation SP. After his last start, I moved him into the rotation.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/white-sox

Jon Becker: They also don’t need a fifth starter until April 12, so they’re likely to just start with Wilson and Smith both in the bullpen and decide later depending on who’s used in the meantime.

Guest: What would the cardinals outfield look like if Victor Scott can’t keep the hot spring training numbers up?

Jon Becker: In fairness to the Gorman question from “chaim bloom” earlier, this would be one way to get him more playing time. Scott II struggling but Siani not being the replacement (at least as a starter) opens up more LF for Donovan, which slides Nootbaar over to CF and creates more permanent time at 2B for Gorman.

sho: When does MLB crack down more on IL manipulation? I’m looking specifically at the Dodgers.

Jason Martinez: I’m still blown away that a GM (Eppler) was suspended for it. Seems to me that “manipulating” the IL is the easiest thing to do because it’s such a long season and players will tell you that they’re rarely 100% healthy over 162 games (plus spring training/playoffs). Any MRI on a pitcher’s elbow will show some wear and tear. Even some general soreness could result in an IL stint. For whatever reason, Eppler got thrown under the bus.

mario: kinda surprised Houston prefers Dubon > Brendan Rodgers…  or am I just hanging on to the latter’s unfulfilled prospect pedigree?

Jon Becker: A few factors in Dubón’s favor: versatility, being on the 40-man roster already, and being a highly-respected and loved clubhouse guy. I think Rodgers would have had to light the Grapefruit League up to get ahead of Dubón, and as a 2B-only it’s tough to make the roster as a bench bat, too, which is why we’ve got Guillorme ahead of him as well.

Dewey: Do you think Victor Scott wins the Cards’ CF job?  Thoughts on Marlins’ Jonah Bride as a corner reserve in a deep OBP league? Thanks.

Jason Martinez: I don’t see how Scott doesn’t win the job. Not sure how much time they’ll give him if he struggles out of the gate again, but he is a much better hitter than Siani and should continue to get better.

I like Bride, especially because of his OBP skill gives him a much higher floor than the Marlins’ other 1B/DH options (Mervis/De Los Santos).

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Back next week. Have a great weekend, everybody. 6 more days until real baseball!