RosterResource Chat – 8/7/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the 1st post-trade deadline RosterResource Chat! Such a fun week. Now here’s a reminder that it’s never too early for offseason questions.

Shout out to Jon for getting our Platoon Lineups feature up and running … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/platoon-lineups/diamondbacks

Still a few more things to add, including “last 6 lineups”, but this should be a great resource throughout the year.

Sorpresas: If Brandon Woodruff keeps dealing through the end of the season (& hopefully into the playoffs) what kind of contract will he be looking at? Four years $100M possible?

Jon Becker: He looks to be all the way back, but 4/100 still seems pretty aggressive for a guy who will be at under 100 innings including the playoffs after not pitching in MLB for around two years, plus he’ll be entering his age-33 season. I think something like 3/63 with an opt out after the first year sounds about right.

Guest: i have a dumb fantasy reason to keep asking, but what are the chances of just one more Carroll CF start? as you predicted, they went away after Grichuk got dealt. any injury or one-week shenanigan possibilities?

Jason Martinez: As things currently stand, they can’t field an OF without Thomas or Barrosa in the lineup and they would play CF over Carroll. Only way I see it happening is when Pavin Smith comes back and they want to field a lineup with him, Locklear (1B), and Del Castillo (DH). Then Smith would have to play RF and Carroll would play CF. So it’s at least a possibility.

Chris: I was curious what Yanks wouldve done if Slater hadnt gotten injured the day before Judge was activated.  It seems like they didnt know they were gonna add Caballero when they traded for Rosario, so maybe Amed wouldve been gone?

Jon Becker: Nah, they wouldn’t have traded for Rosario just to DFA him a couple days later. Cashman was sure to point out that Caballero having options available was a reason they went out and got him, so he would have gone to AAA.

Mac: Bubba Chandler time yet?

Jason Martinez: The Pirates have a TBD listed for Saturday (8/9) but Chandler just pitched on 8/5. My guess is that they wait at least 1 more turn and then give him 4-5 MLB starts to finish out the season. He’s at 93 IP right now and I think they’d be comfortable getting him to the 130-135 IP range.

Warren: how do you think the blue jays manage their roster when Springer and Gimenez come back? do they DFA Ty France?

Jon Becker: Buddy Kennedy’s the easy one to kick off the roster for one of them since he’s a journeyman who just joined the roster, but the other spot is tougher. France is a 1B-only bench guy to begin with, and he’s the only hitter on the roster besides Kennedy with a below-average wRC+, so it feels like it basically has to be him barring another injury.

clydethedog: any chance giants bring up Eldridge before September?

Jason Martinez: Yeah I think so, especially if they’re completely out of the playoff race. I think Posey understands the importance of keeping the fan base engaged and an Eldridge call-up would draw plenty of interest. Still has some things to work on but he’s crushing the ball in AAA.

Opifijikl: Didn’t Jarren Duran start out as an infielder? Any ideas why the Red Sox don’t try him there again and keep Rafaela in Center Field?

Jon Becker: Duran hasn’t played the infield since he played 20 games in A-ball at 2B in 2018, so it would be a huge ask to move him back there. Rafaela’s an elite CF but Duran certainly isn’t bad out there, and I think elite CF/maybe-awful-and-definitely-uncomfortable 2B isn’t as secure a combo as good CF/solid 2B.

Guest: What is the plan for Bradish ROS?

Jason Martinez: He has 3 rehab starts under his belt and got roughed up in 3 innings in his last one. I’d expect 2 more MiLB starts and then activated in late August. That should give him about 6-7 MLB starts before season’s end.

Guest: Mackenzie Gore: injured, team breaks all their pitchers, rough patch, he’s just like this, all of the above?

Jon Becker: I think rough patch is the likeliest answer, but why he’s in the rough patch requires some more investigating. I’d be pretty concerned about him tipping pitches if I was the Nats, 60 pitches to 21 batters with just seven whiffs is extremely unusual for a guy with his stuff.

James: All the players the Astros acquired have several years of control. How do they break the logjam next year? Does Walker or Paredes get traded or does someone have to learn to play 2B?

Jason Martinez: I think they’ll try to trade Paredes. Still 2 years of team control and he has an .829 OPS so value should be strong. But they’ll have to a backup plan just in case there isn’t a strong market for him. Moving him to 2B isn’t ideal. There will be some DH at-bats open if Alvarez is healthy and can play LF (Altuve back to 2B) on a consistent basis. But I wouldn’t count on that.

Nate: Do you have an understanding/can you explain a little about how the Astros luxury tax works now after adding Correa? I’ve heard mixed things as far as if we managed to stay under it or not with the money the Twins included…but that seems mind boggling to think about

Jon Becker: The intricacies require more explanation that I have time to provide in this chat, but if you want to chat you can find me on X or Bluesky or email rosters@fangraphs.com and I can give more detail! The TLDR is that I’ve currently got them at juuuuuuuuuuust a little bit under the CBT line, about $2M from hitting it, which is such a small amount that they very well could go over, especially with all the injured players they’ve had to pay.

Phil: If the playoffs started tomorrow, would Yoshida be on the postseason roster? What if they start when they’re actually starting?

Jason Martinez: Yeah he’d be on the roster. Whether he’d start or not is the question. He’s been in the lineup vs RHP and I think they’re trying to figure out if he can regain his previous form. He had a 135 wRC+ vs RHP in 2024. Currently, you can make the argument that having Romy Gonzalez in the lineup at 2B and moving Rafaela to CF (Duran in LF, Anthony at DH) is their best option. Same deal if Marcelo Mayer is healthy.

Guest: Do we think Ben Joyce comes back at full strength next year? What is his expected role?

Jon Becker: We never got many specifics on his injury other than that he tore his labrum, which is certainly a bad injury, though we don’t know how bad a tear. As best I can find, there’s no clear timetable either. IF he’s back to 102-105 mph and IF the Angels don’t sign a Proven Closer (they probably will), he’ll be a front-runner for the closer’s job. But shoulder injuries are even more finicky than elbow injuries so I’ll be eager to see how he bounces back.

Oaktown Blues: Do you think the A’s will keep Darell Hernaiz in the bigs when Wilson comes off the IL?

Jason Martinez: Yep. Wilson has a fractured forearm so I’m not expecting him back anytime soon. And they’ll have an extra bench spot in September. No reason to prioritize at-bats for pending free agents like Urias and Urshela so I’ll assume they’ll get a good look at Muncy, Hernaiz, and Gelof regardless of whether Wilson comes back or not.

Ben from DC: Any predictions for Tucker’s contract?

Jon Becker: He’s having a weird season. Been really good, of course, but the power hasn’t been there to nearly the extent it should be. Some of it is the wind at Wrigley, a lot of it is the finger that he injured on the slide a couple months ago, which is impeding his ability to grip the bat the way he likes. Still a super high floor because of his base running skill and OBP but I think $400M could be close to his ceiling unless the power comes back down the stretch. Still a lot of time to mash and get a half a billion.

Jose Caba-where-o: Caballero’s playing time has plummeted in NY. Should we assume this is the norm going forward?

Jason Martinez: He was brought in as a utilityman who plays mostly vs LHP. And that hasn’t changed. He is good vs LHP and none of their lefty bats (other than Bellinger and Wells) have been good against LHP this season.

Twins Pitching: Do you think Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, or both will pitch innings for the Twins this year, or will they leave both in the minors and have them compete for jobs next spring?

Jon Becker: I think they’ll each get a handful of starts at minimum, yeah. They’re not actually going to stick with the Ureña/Ohl bullpen games 40% of the time for the rest of the season, they just wanted to get Bradley and Abel acclimated to the org before (probably) calling them up soon.

Guest: What does the Twins opening day lineup look like next season, with Keaschall back and other top guys getting close?

Jason Martinez: I’ll predict that “Walker Jenkins possibly making the Opening Day roster” will be an interesting topic but it won’t happen. Same with Emmanuel Rodriguez. I think their current options are good enough to allow the Twins to be patient. Therefore, this is what I’d guess if just using the current options …

1. Luke Keaschall, 2B
2. Matt Wallner, RF
3. Byron Buxton, CF
4. Kody Clemens, 1B
5. Ryan Jeffers, C
6. Trevor Larnach, DH
7. Royce Lewis, 3B
8. Brooks Lee, SS
9. Alan Roden or James Outman, LF

   Nice balance. No one is terrible. I also like Payton Eeles as a super-utility option. Add Jenkins to the OF by mid-season. Kaelen Culpepper could also make a push for the majors in 2026.

Guest: What are the chances of River Ryan cracking the Dodgers rotation next year?

Jon Becker: Pretty low, at least to start next year. Tommy John rehab tends to be closer to 18 months than 12 these days, and 18 months would put him at late February. Even if his rehab goes great and he’s full go next year, they might want to start him off in a more controlled environment to monitor his innings. No big need to rush him with Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Ohtani all assured of spots, with Sasaki likely to have one, Kershaw having an open invitation to return, etc.

Opifijikl: I was looking back at an article from spring about how Texas tried to rebalance its production by essentially replacing Lowe with Barger/Pederson and trading some OBP for SLG. Obviously plans don’t always work out, but do you think the process/idea behind this kind of rebalancing makes sense?

Jason Martinez: Swapping Lowe for Pederson wasn’t really a risk. Pederson crushes RHP. And he’s only 33 so I doubt they expected this much of a drop-off in production.

I’m guessing they knew Burger was a risk with those BB/K numbers being as bad as they were in his first 3 seasons. But if he could still hit 25-30 HR hitting 7th or 8th in that lineup, they figured they could live with it. But they got the bad version, at least in 2025.

Gaddis about Town: Could Gaddis take the closer role in Cleveland?

Jon Becker: Probably not. Cade Smith is clearly the best guy in that bullpen (and he had an argument for being the best arm in the bullpen even when Clase was still around), and he’s who Vogt has been using as his closer whenever he’s available. It’s no Clase-Smith-Gaddis-Herrin from last year but Smith-Gaddis-Enright-Sabrowski has been a nice quartet.

Like sands through an hourglass: Has Sands washed away as min closer? Who do you like for saves in that pen?

Jason Martinez: As far as potential closer committees go — multiple good options vs zero good options — the Twins have the zero good options one. Sands hasn’t been terrible but he’s gone backwards since his breakout in 2024. K/9 dropped from 10.7 to 7.5. I think he could get some save chances because there really aren’t many options but he’s also likely to pitch earlier in the game when they have a lead for the same reason. Not a lot of good options.

Justin Topa has been bad this season coming back from injury but I think they’ve been waiting to see the version they traded for. And hoping to get some value out of him if he can pick up some saves. So I’d lean towards Topa getting the majority of chances.

MF Luder: Do you think Cristian Javier is guaranteed a rotation spot?

Jon Becker: Definitely not. 15 walks in 14 innings on rehab so far, and it’s not like he’s ever been a command/control guy but even half that rate wouldn’t be workable for a starter. I’d guess their hope is that he at least shows enough to be a bullpen weapon in the playoffs.

Guest: Varsho has sat against both lefties since returning, do you think he’s strictly platoon now or is it more about easing him back in after so much time off (yesterday was also day game after night game in addition to being a lefy)?

Jason Martinez: They’re easing him back in. He was actually much better vs LHP than RHP last season. But it’s also because their other lefty OFs (Lukes and Loperfido) have been good vs LHP this season. Varsho’s defense is too valuable to sit him in the most meaningful games, though, so I’d expect him to be out there mostly every day by season’s end/playoffs.

Colton: Realistically, how many prospects get called up after the rookie eligibility threshold passes later this month? 8-10? Less? More?

Jon Becker: Depends who we’re considering a prospect here, but off the top 99 prospects, here’s who I’m monitoring as strong possibilities:

Chandler
Painter
Lawlar
Eldridge
Wetherholt
Sproat
McLean
Tolle
Henriquez

That’s not to say all or even most of them will get the call, but that’s nine right there, and then a bunch of others below 50 FV.

Fka oakland: With Perkins in the rotation, Newcombe getting the 7th/8th yesterday, and Kelly blowing the tie in the 9th, is there an arm in the Sactown pen that you would add?

Jason Martinez: Not really. As we saw with Eduarniel, a guy can absolutely dominate in the minors but won’t be successful in the majors if his command isn’t at least average. Ferguson seemed to turn things around in AAA before getting called back up yesterday. I’d imagine he’s in a high-leverage role if he looks anything like he did last season. Luis Morales is interesting, too.

Guest: who would be in the Paredes trade market with his ballpark sensitivities? 1B at Fenway? the park factor isn’t great but the monster seems to serve his needs

Jon Becker: Boston certainly makes sense especially if Bregman walks after opting out and 3B is open, too. Looking at xHR by park, the Jays might be an okay fit too, if Bichette signs elsewhere and Giménez is at short with Clement sliding over to more 2B.

Jb: Does also manoah make a start for the jays this year?

Jason Martinez: Yep. He’s making progress. Barring any major setbacks, he’ll be back. And even if he doesn’t start, I think he’ll still be on a starter’s routine (every 5-6 days, at least 3 IP) out of the bullpen. There should be opportunities for some piggyback starts in September.

Phil: I assume you weren’t counting Campbell as a prospect call-up since he’s been up previously, but would you expect him to be up as well?

Jon Becker: Cora alluded to him still having things to work on, but he’s definitely trending back upwards. I think they’d love for him to take over 1B down the stretch.

Ariz Cl?: Any thoughts on the next Arizona closer?

Jason Martinez: It’s as bad as a situation can possibly be, losing Puk and Martinez (and Shelby Miller for a time before he was traded). By default, I think they’ll probably just go with Graveman and hope he can figure things out. Maybe Ryan Thompson once he’s healthy. Andrew Hoffmann could get a look but he’s going to be inconsistent. Wouldn’t surprise me if they tried to sign Ryan Pressly just to help get them through the season.

MF Luder: Beavers will presumably be a strong side platoon once he’s called up?

Jon Becker: That could be what he ends up being in the end, but if I’m the Orioles I’m giving him plenty of reps against LHP to see how well he can handle them. It’s not like they’re envisioning Jordyn Adams or Jeremiah Jackson on the next good Orioles team, anyway.

Victoria: Is Strong Side Platoon Belli going to opt into his last year?

Jason Martinez: No way he doesn’t opt out. Heading into his age-30 season. Great numbers vs RHP and LHP. Above-average corner OF who can also play 1B or CF. Not sure he’ll get 5+ years but I can see him getting around 4 yr, $110MM.

Scarecrow: So, we’re past the trade deadline, but here’s a wild hair trade idea for the offseason:

Matasaka Yoshiba for Giancarlo Stanton.    The money and obligation appear almost identical I think.   Change of scenery, lefty goes to Yankee Stadium to feast, Stanton moves to Fenway.   DH for DH.   Maybe, even just to clear some unhappiness.

Jon Becker: This is one of those ideas that doesn’t make much sense for either team. Stanton is better than Yoshida but also more expensive, and what either team would hope to accomplish in a trade is freeing up DH for a rotation of players. All the Yankees would accomplish here is making their offense worse but cheaper, and all the Red Sox would accomplish is having an even more inflexible DH spot than they do now and hopefully getting 30 homers out of it.

Opifijikl: I was looking at the transaction tracker and didn’t realize how many little “MiLB player traded for cash” trades happened. What do teams do with the cash? Why not try to get a player back? Do only certain teams do those trades?

Jason Martinez: Not sure how much $ usually changes hands, but it’s enough to jump the waiver line. If a team wants a player and thinks they’ll be claimed by a team ahead of them in the waiver order, they can just offer $50K (just a guess) to acquire the player.

Guest: The PPI date to maintain rookie eligibility is 8/14.  Let’s pretend that Vegas odds makers (or just me) set the line at 8/21 for the O’s to call up Basallo.  Are you taking the over or under?

Jon Becker: I’m guessing if he’s up at all it’ll be as one of the couple September call-ups. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him not up at all this year, though, with a leg up a spot next year.

Guest: Is it safe to assume BOS and CLE wouldn’t have traded Duran or Kwan for a package centered around De Vries?

Jason Martinez: I assume they wouldn’t have given up De Vries for 2+ years of Kwan. Possibly for 3+ years of Duran, but maybe the Padres hadn’t included him in trade talks prior to the Red Sox saying Duran was staying put.

4+ years of Miller is probably why they decided to include De Vries, although I think 4 years of a pitcher is equal to 2-3 years of a position player due to the high likelihood of an elbow injury. Super risky trade.

Guest: Hey guys! Wondering who are some players you could see getting DFAed or placed on revocable waivers in lieu of other teams picking them up for a final playoff push (and salary relief for the offsetting team)??

Jon Becker: A lot of rentals on selling teams I was surprised to see stick around, namely Pham, Heaney, and Josh Bell, so I’d expect them to be on waivers (though we may never hear about it) along with names like DeJong, Farmer, and Gio Urshela. But as with every year I’m most curious to see if the Angels waive their rentals assuming they keep losing, because they’ve got a lot: Jansen, Tyler Anderson, Chafin, Luis García, Moncada, Hendricks, Rengifo.

Rick: Think Locklear can be long-term 1B for AZ?

Jason Martinez: It’s possible but still way too early. I think Dbacks just need to decide whether he’s going to be part of the 2026 team and they will have two good months to see him play every day. My guess is they’l probably go into 2026 with Locklear and Pavin Smith penciled in at 1B/DH.

Tom M: How Can we get a 2026 estimate payroll roll forward early with just a basic arbitration calc? I want to see how bad the Pirates payroll looks as we look to the offseason

Jon Becker: I’ve wanted to look into the feasibility of this for a while, but unfortunately there’s no such thing as a basic arbitration calculation because there’s a bunch of variables there. So we just wait until the MLBTradeRumors estimates come out since the folks there are nice enough to let us use theirs. We’ll be in 2026 mode a week or so after the World Series.

gonyr: What does the future hold for Lawrence Butler? Seems like a big step back from last year.

Jason Martinez: Took a step backwards but not enough to be overly concerned. The main difference is that he was very good vs LHP as a rookie and he has been very bad this season. So, looking ahead to 2026, I think they just need to plan on him having a platoon partner until he figures things out and proves that he’s back to the 2024 version vs LHP.

RAGBRAI: Mansee seems to be an everyday starter now. Does this hold up for next year?

Jon Becker: Probably, since his being a lefty bodes well for him. Stowers will have one spot and then it’s Marsee, Hill, Myers, Hernandez, Mesa, and Wiemer in the mix for the two others plus bench spots, as of right now.

jj: how long does walker buehler stay in the rotation, and do you expect Early, Sandlin or Tolle to make their debuts this year in a meaningful way?

Jason Martinez: Sounds like Sandlin is the most likely candidate to get a September audition for the post-season bullpen. I wouldn’t rule out Tolle or Early, either. If they can find one more power arm to help get the ball to Aroldis, they’re in good shape for October.

Not sure on Buehler. They don’t have a lot of SP depth so best-case is he improves and can be useful in the playoffs (similar to 2025 with the Dodgers). At least right now with a 4-game cushion over any non-playoff teams, they have some time to allow for that.

Browngreen: Are you concerned at all about Judge’s production down the stretch?  Do you think his injury will affect his hitting?

Jon Becker: Not particularly concerned, it didn’t sound like it was affecting him much at all when hitting before, and I’m not going to overreact to a couple games where it still looked like he was working on getting his timing back rather than swinging hurt. Obviously, they need him to hit, but they also need him to get back to RF ASAP so Stanton isn’t rotting on the bench.

Ryan O’Hearn: Why trade for me and then sit me?

Jason Martinez: Sheets has to start every once in a while for him to still be an effective bat off the bench. That’s his main job now. So the first day off made sense. Not so much the next day unless they really felt that Machado needed to DH so he could get a day off his feet. Hopefully, he’s in there against every RHP from now on. Having O’Hearn and Sheets on the bench is kind of pointless because the only hitter that gets pinch-hit for is Elias Diaz. And maybe Fermin in a big spot. But you don’t have 3 catchers on the roster so you can only pinch-hit once.

pumpsie: On the team depth chart tab, in the 2025 Team Rankings section, could we get a defence box beneath hitting, sp and rp? There’s a bit of white space there! Maybe ooa, maybe six boxes to line up with the other sections, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, c and of? Whenever I want to know ‘why is this team great/horrible’, that is the first place I look. Great starters! They hit! Worst rp era! Absolutely fantastic resource, guys.

Jason Martinez: I like that idea. Not sure if it’s an easy add but I can ask about it. Thanks!

Dan P: Jason I’d just like you to know that I absolutely adore RR and consider it a valuable tool I use nearly daily, thank you so much.

Jason Martinez: Thank Dan! Appreciate that.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Thanks for joining us! We’ll be back next week.