Rowing the Cano
When Robinson Cano debuted as the Yankees second baseman in 2005, at the raw age of 22 years old, fans of the empire caught an extended glimpse of a player with the potential to help the team in a big way. His fielding initially stunk, erasing the slightly above average contribution made on the offensive front. Though his season produced no more than one tenth of a win above replacement level, it became clear that some experience could go a very long way.
In 2006, he reached that potential, hitting .342/.365/.525 with a .377 wOBA. Sure, Cano’s isolated patience could have been better and his .363 BABIP seemed sure to regress, but vastly improved offensive numbers coupled with a UZR twenty runs better than his rookie season led to the Yankees keystone cornerman posting +3.5 wins.
Things only improved the following season when Cano produced +5 wins thanks to a +11 UZR mark and offensive output similar to the year prior. Then 2008 happened. Cano’s UZR dropped from +11 to -8, and his offense of +15 to +20 runs nosedived to -10 runs. At just a half-win above replacement, Cano looked lost both at the plate and in the field. After BABIPs well above .300, Cano’s dropped to .286, leading many to suggest that he will once again experience success this season.
In fact, the ZiPS projection system called for a .349 wOBA that would place Cano very close to his solid 2007 campaign. Through 139 PA, Cano is hitting .321/.353/.519, with six dingers and a .376 wOBA. On top of that, his defense has been above average at +2 runs. In 31 games, Cano’s +1.1 wins above replacement have already doubled last season’s end product.
How will he perform from here on out? ZiPS feels confident in Cano’s .376 wOBA to begin the season and sees his true talent for the rest of the season in the .356 range. Should this come to fruition, Cano would end the season hitting .304/.341/.492, a career best 23 home runs, and a .360 wOBA. If he can produce at that level offensively and hover around the league average with the glove, the Yankees will have themselves a very valuable 26-yr old second baseman.
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
This sentence doesn’t make sense:
“His fielding left very little to be desired and more than erased the slightly above average contribution made on the offensive front.”
What aren’t you getting from it? His fielding stunk and not only erased his offensive contribution (which was slightly above average) but pushed him into the negative as well.
It makes sense if it is read carefully, but it could be written in a more readable way.
I believe the correct phrase would be “His fielding left much to be desired”. Saying something left little to be desired means he fulfilled your desires for a good fielder. I’m pretty sure that’s not what you mean.
I’m with Greg on that, I read it as fulfilling the desire for a good fielder.
No, because the implication is that it was very slightly below average, much as his bat was very slightly above average.
The best formulation would be:
“His fielding initially left a little to be desired, erasing the slightly above average contribution made on the offensive front.”
That key “a.”
I think what he meant was, “Initially Cano’s defense left a little to be desired, both in the field of play and the field of defensive metrics. Thankfully, for all those involved, Cano’s offensive statistics gave both the Yankees and Sabrmaticians hope for the future.”
I think..
Anyways, my non-statistical take on Cano is that he’s slow to adjust. For a player who only takes his base 5% of the time though, he’s as good as it gets. I like the kid.
Who the hell cares how Eric constructs his sentences?
I’m sure Eric cares somewhat.
But besides him, how about people who want to understand what he’s writing?
[I’ve just spent an hour distilling the meaning from some syntactically convoluted business-speak spilled on the page by a couple of my coworkers. I’m in no mood to listen to your excuses for sloppy grammar.]
Do I care? Of course… I pride myself on being a good writer and if I pen something nobody understands, it’s an issue. But an entire comment thread dedicated to that sentence and not Robinson Cano makes me hate comment threads.
I agree. I’m sure many of us who care about the statistical analysis to understanding baseball have thought of this, but Cano is the guy I want to talk to and say, “you know, if you are more patient at the plate, you’ll have a decade’s worth of silver slugger awards.” Anyway, the kid’s swing is a thing of beauty and the pop is obviously there.
Can I at least say that the title of this article was one of the most groan-worthy puns I’ve heard in weeks? I don’t know if that’s worthy of pride or shame. Possibly both!
http://xkcd.com/386/
Agreed. Nice pun, except you paddle a canoe, not row.
Paddling Cano — could be —- misinterpreted to say the least.
Cano is a major front in the battle between “the scouts” and the “stat-heads”.
The “scouts” (fans who pay little attention to the numbers) will tell you that despite his BAVG, Cano is poor with RISP, horrendous with the bases loaded, and can’t be counted on in the great majority of clutch situations because much of the time, he’ll try to hit pitcher’s pitches, and get himself out, usually in a most unproductive fashion.
Further, they’ll tell you that he’s lazy, reacts slowly on many plays, and cannot be counted on to make the intelligent play, or even be where he’s supposed to be when he’s supposed to be there. Finally, they’ll tell you he usually doesn’t bust it down the line, and sometimes loses chances to pick up bases, either forcing errors, or advancing extra bases on hits, errors, or pitches that get away.
The numbers people say that he’s a terrific hitter for a second baseman, that his power will peak at something like 25 HR a year, and eventually, he’s likely to make some progress with his walk rate. They’ll also tell you that his defense is underrated, that he has a very strong arm that allows to complete tough plays and turn tough pivots on double plays that a secondbaseman with a weaker arm wouldn’t even attempt.
Me? I think the truth is somewhere in between. I think he’s better than average, but not as much as his adjusted numbers seem to show. Take a look at his WPA for instance. It’s been in negative numbers every year except for the year he hit .342. It’s even negative this season, despite the hot start. The Yanks are under .500, but not that far, and a lot of their negative value is on the pitching anyway.
I’d a lot rather have Cano than say, oh, Luis Castillo or Mike Fontenot, but I’m not ready to put him on All-Star teams yet.
There’s truth in this, I think. I watch just about every game. Cano still does get himself out a lot – particularly in pressure situations. The hope is that as he matures, he does that less and less. We’ll see.
His production will likely always be volatile because of his hacktastic ways. Even a more patient Cano won’t be particularly patient, and because of that he will be more prone to the vagueries of chance. I don’t understand what goes on with his defense other than to say that I think he may take offensive frustrations out to the field.