Royals Prospects Who Aren’t Royals

In a pair of recent posts at this site, Matthew Kory has examined — first before the Royals’ great success and then also after it — has examined what sort of effect the World Series champions might have on the roster-construction philosphies of baseball’s other 29 teams. Both pieces are founded on a reasonable assumption — namely, that it’s common for franchises to imitate the process utilized by the league’s great victor, with a view to also imitating the product. The Copycat Effect, is how one might characterize this. Why felines specifically have been singled out for their mimetic inclinations, I can’t say. That the phenomenon exists seems like a reasonable possibility.

The current post resembles Kory’s own efforts in that the objective is to isolate and explore the most pronounced traits of baseball’s championship club — those traits which, were an organization tempted to emulate the champion, they would themselves identify as most important. Where it differs from Kory’s work, however, is that the intent here is to look towards the future. Instead of examing which current major-league players or teams most embody the Royals’ strengths, what I’d like to ask is which prospects do that. In other words, I’d like to ask this: which rookie-eligible players would a general manager, attempting to best imitate the Royals, set about acquiring (or keeping, as the case may be)?

That’s the guiding inquiry of the current post. How to answer it, though?

First, this way: by identifying those traits endemic to the Royals. Again, Kory’s work is helpful here. In the latter of his two posts, he identifies the traits which most distinguished Kansas City from the rest of the league: a low strikeout rate among the club’s hitters, strong baserunning, elite defensive ability, and a talented bullpen. For the purposes of this post, I’ll be ignoring pitchers. I’ll do it for a number of reasons, but largely because betting on even the near-term success of relievers is a fool’s errand. So the focus will be on hitters.

That’s the first step towards answering the question. The second: to utilize the recently published Steamer 600 projections for 2016. Here’s how I began: for all 4043 players for whom a forecast has been produced, I calculated the z-scores in each of three categories: strikeout rate (where lower is better), baserunning runs relative to average, and defensive runs (which accounts both for fielding runs and positional adjustment). I then averaged together the z-scores for each of those three categories. Reason dictates that the resulting figure should represent to what degree the relevant player might offer the skills possessed by Royals players.

Below are the top-10 rookie-eligible players by that methodology. Note that Age represents 2016 baseball age and all heading titles preceded by -z- represent z-scores.

Royals Prospects Who Aren’t Royals: Attempt No. 1

Name	Team	Pos	Age	PA	K%	BsR	Def	zK%	zBsR	zDef	Total
Willians Astudillo	PHI	C/1B	24	450	7.1%	0.1	7.5	3.1	0.2	1.2	1.5
Jose Peraza	LAN	2B	22	600	11.2%	0.9	1.9	2.3	1.5	0.3	1.4
Rossmel Perez	BAL	C	26	450	10.0%	0.1	7.5	2.5	0.2	1.2	1.3
Tomas Telis	MIA	C	25	450	12.2%	0.2	8.2	2.1	0.4	1.3	1.3
Hanser Alberto	TEX	2B	23	600	11.7%	0.4	4.7	2.2	0.7	0.8	1.2
Tyler Heineman	HOU	C	25	450	12.2%	0.1	7.5	2.1	0.2	1.2	1.2
Raywilly Gomez	LAA	C	26	450	13.3%	0.2	7.5	1.9	0.4	1.2	1.2
Benjamin Turner	SFN	C/1B	26	450	13.3%	0.2	7.5	1.9	0.4	1.2	1.2
Ramon Cabrera	CIN	C	26	450	14.2%	0.0	10.2	1.8	0.1	1.7	1.2
Alex Swim	MIN	C/OF	25	450	12.9%	0.1	7.5	2.0	0.2	1.2	1.2

So, an immediate observation: this is a list full of catchers plus also Jose Peraza and Hanser Alberto. Because catchers receive such a large positional adjustment (+7.5 runs per every 450 plate appearances), they’re inclined to gravitate towards the top of lists like this. Where projections are concerned, positional adjustments aren’t subject to regression and translation like other metrics. Strikeout rate, baserunning, fielding runs: where only minor-league data is available, Steamer is conservative — particularly so regarding the latter two variables. As such, the large catcher’s positional adjustment unduly rewards catchers. Catchers are important, but merely presenting a list of doesn’t seem entirely in keeping with our objective here. We’ll have to refine our methodology.

Before we do, a word about Philadelphia prospect Willians Astudillo. No qualified minor leaguer produced a lower strikeout rate (2.4%) than Astudillo in 2015. No batter is projected (given playing time) to produce a lower strikeout rate at the major-league level in 2016. His defense at catcher has been a question, although it was less of a question this year. (Or, at least, Astudillo recorded more starts at catcher than in any previous season.) Astudillo is fascinating.

Back to our objective, though: to find prospects who embody Royaldom. Catchers overwhelmed the first collection of results. We’re going to remove them entirely. What happens when we do?

Royals Prospects Who Aren’t Royals: Attempt No. 2

Name	Team	Pos	Age	PA	K%	BsR	Def	zK%	zBsR	zDef	Total
Jose Peraza	LAN	2B	22	600	11.2%	0.9	1.9	2.3	1.5	0.3	1.4
Hanser Alberto	TEX	2B	23	600	11.7%	0.4	4.7	2.2	0.7	0.8	1.2
Zach Osborne	COL	2B/SS	26	600	11.5%	0.0	6.0	2.3	0.1	1.0	1.1
Dixon Machado	DET	SS	24	600	15.3%	0.2	8.1	1.5	0.4	1.3	1.1
Eric Stamets	CLE	SS	24	600	13.5%	0.2	6.0	1.9	0.4	1.0	1.1
Cristhian Adames	COL	SS	24	600	14.2%	0.2	6.6	1.8	0.4	1.1	1.1
Ildemaro Vargas	ARI	SS	24	600	10.3%	-0.2	6.0	2.5	-0.2	1.0	1.1
Yonathan Mendoza	CLE	3B/SS	22	600	13.3%	0.1	6.0	1.9	0.2	1.0	1.0
James Beresford	MIN	2B/SS	27	600	13.5%	0.1	6.0	1.9	0.2	1.0	1.0
Travis Jankowski	SDN	OF	25	600	16.5%	1.1	-0.3	1.3	1.8	-0.1	1.0

This is decidedly an improvement. Atop this table — naturally, because they were the only non-catchers identified by the previous attempt — appear Peraza and Alberto.

Signed out of Venezuela, the 23-year-old Peraza was traded to the Dodgers in the same deal that sent Hector Olivera to Atlanta. Regarding his credentials as an honorary Royal, one find first that, as a minor leaguer, he recorded merely a 10.2% strikeout rate — and, indeed, struck out only twice in his 25 plate appearances as a Dodger this season. He received a 70 grade on his speed tool from Kiley McDaniel. And while his arm appears insufficient to play a major-league shortstop, his speed and athleticism ought to allow him to play above-average defense at either second base or center field. Peraza is the sort of player for whom we’re searching.

Alberto resembles Peraza is a number of ways. He’s actually recorded an even lower minor-league strikeout rate (8.7%) than Peraza, if while also offering less in the way of footspeed. Defensively, he has exhibited the ability to play some shortstop, making eight appearances there with the Rangers in 2015. Alberto is also the sort of player for whom we’re searching.

The remainder of the table is occupied by some more and some less familiar names. Detroit’s Dixon Machado and San Diego’s Travis Jankowski both recorded their major-league debuts in 2015 at age 23 and 24, respectively. The former offers considerable defensive value as a capable, potentially above-average, shortstop. Jankowski certainly isn’t a liability in center field. He also features plus-plus speed. Cristhian Adames registered 11 starts at shortstop for the Rockies in September.

It’s quite possible that, given their combination of youth and talent, that Adames and Jankowski and Machado will earn a starting role at some point. A number of the other players on this list, however — while candidates certainly to earn a bench role at some point — are unlikely to play contribute substantially to a World Series winner. Zach Osborne just played the majority of his age-25 season for the Rockies’ Double-A affiliate. James Beresford enters his age-27 season having played the majority of each of the last three years playing at Triple-A. If the objective of this exercise is to identify rookie-eligible players one might reasonably find on a championship club, we haven’t probably met that objective yet.

There’s one trait likely preventing Beresford and Osborne from a large major-league role: a lack of power on contact. Nor is that shortcoming merely limited to those two. Indeed, all 10 of the hitters here are projected to record an isolated-power figure below .100. While the Royals weren’t particularly notable for their power, they also didn’t lack it entirely. Among the team’s six qualified batters, only one of them (Alcides Escobar) produced less than a .162 ISO. So we’re going to add one more criterion to our search: a projected .100 ISO or better. Even if the new term doesn’t retrieve a collection of sluggers, it’ll at least supply us with a fresh list of names.

Here are the top-10 players by this new methodology:

Royals Prospects Who Aren’t Royals: Attempt No. 3

Name	Team	Pos	Age	PA	K%	BsR	Def	zK%	zBsR	zDef	Total
Kevin Nolan	TOR	SS	28	600	14.2%	0.0	6.0	1.8	0.1	1.0	0.9
Reymond Fuentes	KCA	OF	25	600	18.7%	0.8	2.8	0.9	1.4	0.4	0.9
Gavin Cecchini	NYN	SS	22	600	15.2%	0.0	6.0	1.6	0.1	1.0	0.9
Corey Seager	LAN	SS	22	600	18.5%	0.4	5.3	1.0	0.7	0.9	0.8
Orlando Arcia	MIL	SS	21	600	14.2%	-0.2	6.0	1.8	-0.2	1.0	0.8
Diego Goris	SDN	2B/SS	25	600	16.8%	0.1	6.0	1.3	0.2	1.0	0.8
Aledmys Diaz	STL	SS	25	600	15.8%	-0.1	6.0	1.5	-0.1	1.0	0.8
Micah Johnson	CHA	2B	25	600	19.3%	0.8	1.1	0.8	1.4	0.2	0.8
Tim Anderson	CHA	SS	23	600	23.5%	0.6	7.3	0.0	1.0	1.2	0.8
Ryon Healy	OAK	3B/DH	24	600	16.3%	0.3	2.0	1.4	0.6	0.3	0.7

One might reasonably suggest that a list topped by Toronto minor leaguer Kevin Nolan, who’ll enter his age-28 season having yet to receive a major-league appearances, isn’t also a list of potential future stars. That’s reasonable. However, the collection of players here as a whole is a promising one. The Dodgers’ Corey Seager, who has retained his rookie eligibility for 2016, is likely to appear near the top of most prospects lists this offseason. His combination of contact ability, speed, and defense are integral to his overall value as a player. Milwaukee’s Orlando Arcia and Chicago’s Tim Anderson, meanwhile, are also candidates to feature prominently on prospect lists. They’re also well acquitted by the criteria employed here.

Notably, one of the players to appear on this list actually is a member of the Royals system already: Reymond Fuentes. Originally a first-round selection by Boston in 2009, the now 24-year-old Fuentes has since moved to San Diego and, following a November trade last year, to Kansas City. Capable of playing center fielder, he’s also averaged 43 stolen bases per every 600 plate appearances as a minor leaguer.