Royals Prospects Who Aren’t Royals

In a pair of recent posts at this site, Matthew Kory has examined — first before the Royals’ great success and then also after it — has examined what sort of effect the World Series champions might have on the roster-construction philosphies of baseball’s other 29 teams. Both pieces are founded on a reasonable assumption — namely, that it’s common for franchises to imitate the process utilized by the league’s great victor, with a view to also imitating the product. The Copycat Effect, is how one might characterize this. Why felines specifically have been singled out for their mimetic inclinations, I can’t say. That the phenomenon exists seems like a reasonable possibility.

The current post resembles Kory’s own efforts in that the objective is to isolate and explore the most pronounced traits of baseball’s championship club — those traits which, were an organization tempted to emulate the champion, they would themselves identify as most important. Where it differs from Kory’s work, however, is that the intent here is to look towards the future. Instead of examing which current major-league players or teams most embody the Royals’ strengths, what I’d like to ask is which prospects do that. In other words, I’d like to ask this: which rookie-eligible players would a general manager, attempting to best imitate the Royals, set about acquiring (or keeping, as the case may be)?

That’s the guiding inquiry of the current post. How to answer it, though?

First, this way: by identifying those traits endemic to the Royals. Again, Kory’s work is helpful here. In the latter of his two posts, he identifies the traits which most distinguished Kansas City from the rest of the league: a low strikeout rate among the club’s hitters, strong baserunning, elite defensive ability, and a talented bullpen. For the purposes of this post, I’ll be ignoring pitchers. I’ll do it for a number of reasons, but largely because betting on even the near-term success of relievers is a fool’s errand. So the focus will be on hitters.

That’s the first step towards answering the question. The second: to utilize the recently published Steamer 600 projections for 2016. Here’s how I began: for all 4043 players for whom a forecast has been produced, I calculated the z-scores in each of three categories: strikeout rate (where lower is better), baserunning runs relative to average, and defensive runs (which accounts both for fielding runs and positional adjustment). I then averaged together the z-scores for each of those three categories. Reason dictates that the resulting figure should represent to what degree the relevant player might offer the skills possessed by Royals players.

Below are the top-10 rookie-eligible players by that methodology. Note that Age represents 2016 baseball age and all heading titles preceded by -z- represent z-scores.

Royals Prospects Who Aren’t Royals: Attempt No. 1
Name Team Pos Age PA K% BsR Def zK% zBsR zDef Total
Willians Astudillo PHI C/1B 24 450 7.1% 0.1 7.5 3.1 0.2 1.2 1.5
Jose Peraza LAN 2B 22 600 11.2% 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.3 1.4
Rossmel Perez BAL C 26 450 10.0% 0.1 7.5 2.5 0.2 1.2 1.3
Tomas Telis MIA C 25 450 12.2% 0.2 8.2 2.1 0.4 1.3 1.3
Hanser Alberto TEX 2B 23 600 11.7% 0.4 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.8 1.2
Tyler Heineman HOU C 25 450 12.2% 0.1 7.5 2.1 0.2 1.2 1.2
Raywilly Gomez LAA C 26 450 13.3% 0.2 7.5 1.9 0.4 1.2 1.2
Benjamin Turner SFN C/1B 26 450 13.3% 0.2 7.5 1.9 0.4 1.2 1.2
Ramon Cabrera CIN C 26 450 14.2% 0.0 10.2 1.8 0.1 1.7 1.2
Alex Swim MIN C/OF 25 450 12.9% 0.1 7.5 2.0 0.2 1.2 1.2

So, an immediate observation: this is a list full of catchers plus also Jose Peraza and Hanser Alberto. Because catchers receive such a large positional adjustment (+7.5 runs per every 450 plate appearances), they’re inclined to gravitate towards the top of lists like this. Where projections are concerned, positional adjustments aren’t subject to regression and translation like other metrics. Strikeout rate, baserunning, fielding runs: where only minor-league data is available, Steamer is conservative — particularly so regarding the latter two variables. As such, the large catcher’s positional adjustment unduly rewards catchers. Catchers are important, but merely presenting a list of doesn’t seem entirely in keeping with our objective here. We’ll have to refine our methodology.

Before we do, a word about Philadelphia prospect Willians Astudillo. No qualified minor leaguer produced a lower strikeout rate (2.4%) than Astudillo in 2015. No batter is projected (given playing time) to produce a lower strikeout rate at the major-league level in 2016. His defense at catcher has been a question, although it was less of a question this year. (Or, at least, Astudillo recorded more starts at catcher than in any previous season.) Astudillo is fascinating.

Back to our objective, though: to find prospects who embody Royaldom. Catchers overwhelmed the first collection of results. We’re going to remove them entirely. What happens when we do?

Royals Prospects Who Aren’t Royals: Attempt No. 2
Name Team Pos Age PA K% BsR Def zK% zBsR zDef Total
Jose Peraza LAN 2B 22 600 11.2% 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.3 1.4
Hanser Alberto TEX 2B 23 600 11.7% 0.4 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.8 1.2
Zach Osborne COL 2B/SS 26 600 11.5% 0.0 6.0 2.3 0.1 1.0 1.1
Dixon Machado DET SS 24 600 15.3% 0.2 8.1 1.5 0.4 1.3 1.1
Eric Stamets CLE SS 24 600 13.5% 0.2 6.0 1.9 0.4 1.0 1.1
Cristhian Adames COL SS 24 600 14.2% 0.2 6.6 1.8 0.4 1.1 1.1
Ildemaro Vargas ARI SS 24 600 10.3% -0.2 6.0 2.5 -0.2 1.0 1.1
Yonathan Mendoza CLE 3B/SS 22 600 13.3% 0.1 6.0 1.9 0.2 1.0 1.0
James Beresford MIN 2B/SS 27 600 13.5% 0.1 6.0 1.9 0.2 1.0 1.0
Travis Jankowski SDN OF 25 600 16.5% 1.1 -0.3 1.3 1.8 -0.1 1.0

This is decidedly an improvement. Atop this table — naturally, because they were the only non-catchers identified by the previous attempt — appear Peraza and Alberto.

Signed out of Venezuela, the 23-year-old Peraza was traded to the Dodgers in the same deal that sent Hector Olivera to Atlanta. Regarding his credentials as an honorary Royal, one find first that, as a minor leaguer, he recorded merely a 10.2% strikeout rate — and, indeed, struck out only twice in his 25 plate appearances as a Dodger this season. He received a 70 grade on his speed tool from Kiley McDaniel. And while his arm appears insufficient to play a major-league shortstop, his speed and athleticism ought to allow him to play above-average defense at either second base or center field. Peraza is the sort of player for whom we’re searching.

Alberto resembles Peraza is a number of ways. He’s actually recorded an even lower minor-league strikeout rate (8.7%) than Peraza, if while also offering less in the way of footspeed. Defensively, he has exhibited the ability to play some shortstop, making eight appearances there with the Rangers in 2015. Alberto is also the sort of player for whom we’re searching.

The remainder of the table is occupied by some more and some less familiar names. Detroit’s Dixon Machado and San Diego’s Travis Jankowski both recorded their major-league debuts in 2015 at age 23 and 24, respectively. The former offers considerable defensive value as a capable, potentially above-average, shortstop. Jankowski certainly isn’t a liability in center field. He also features plus-plus speed. Cristhian Adames registered 11 starts at shortstop for the Rockies in September.

It’s quite possible that, given their combination of youth and talent, that Adames and Jankowski and Machado will earn a starting role at some point. A number of the other players on this list, however — while candidates certainly to earn a bench role at some point — are unlikely to play contribute substantially to a World Series winner. Zach Osborne just played the majority of his age-25 season for the Rockies’ Double-A affiliate. James Beresford enters his age-27 season having played the majority of each of the last three years playing at Triple-A. If the objective of this exercise is to identify rookie-eligible players one might reasonably find on a championship club, we haven’t probably met that objective yet.

There’s one trait likely preventing Beresford and Osborne from a large major-league role: a lack of power on contact. Nor is that shortcoming merely limited to those two. Indeed, all 10 of the hitters here are projected to record an isolated-power figure below .100. While the Royals weren’t particularly notable for their power, they also didn’t lack it entirely. Among the team’s six qualified batters, only one of them (Alcides Escobar) produced less than a .162 ISO. So we’re going to add one more criterion to our search: a projected .100 ISO or better. Even if the new term doesn’t retrieve a collection of sluggers, it’ll at least supply us with a fresh list of names.

Here are the top-10 players by this new methodology:

Royals Prospects Who Aren’t Royals: Attempt No. 3
Name Team Pos Age PA K% BsR Def zK% zBsR zDef Total
Kevin Nolan TOR SS 28 600 14.2% 0.0 6.0 1.8 0.1 1.0 0.9
Reymond Fuentes KCA OF 25 600 18.7% 0.8 2.8 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.9
Gavin Cecchini NYN SS 22 600 15.2% 0.0 6.0 1.6 0.1 1.0 0.9
Corey Seager LAN SS 22 600 18.5% 0.4 5.3 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8
Orlando Arcia MIL SS 21 600 14.2% -0.2 6.0 1.8 -0.2 1.0 0.8
Diego Goris SDN 2B/SS 25 600 16.8% 0.1 6.0 1.3 0.2 1.0 0.8
Aledmys Diaz STL SS 25 600 15.8% -0.1 6.0 1.5 -0.1 1.0 0.8
Micah Johnson CHA 2B 25 600 19.3% 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.4 0.2 0.8
Tim Anderson CHA SS 23 600 23.5% 0.6 7.3 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.8
Ryon Healy OAK 3B/DH 24 600 16.3% 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.7

One might reasonably suggest that a list topped by Toronto minor leaguer Kevin Nolan, who’ll enter his age-28 season having yet to receive a major-league appearances, isn’t also a list of potential future stars. That’s reasonable. However, the collection of players here as a whole is a promising one. The Dodgers’ Corey Seager, who has retained his rookie eligibility for 2016, is likely to appear near the top of most prospects lists this offseason. His combination of contact ability, speed, and defense are integral to his overall value as a player. Milwaukee’s Orlando Arcia and Chicago’s Tim Anderson, meanwhile, are also candidates to feature prominently on prospect lists. They’re also well acquitted by the criteria employed here.

Notably, one of the players to appear on this list actually is a member of the Royals system already: Reymond Fuentes. Originally a first-round selection by Boston in 2009, the now 24-year-old Fuentes has since moved to San Diego and, following a November trade last year, to Kansas City. Capable of playing center fielder, he’s also averaged 43 stolen bases per every 600 plate appearances as a minor leaguer.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

22 Comments
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tz
8 years ago

Carson, will you be tweaking the Fringe Five to be more Royalsish next year?

tz
8 years ago
Reply to  tz

Also, Raywilly Gomez!

Clock
8 years ago
Reply to  tz

RAYWILLY

@outfieldgrass24
8 years ago
Reply to  Clock

There was a brief time, I believe, where the D-backs had Raywilly Gomez, Tuffy Gosewisch, Welington Castillo and Jarrod Saltalamacchia as catchers. Talk about winning the name game. It was a sad day when they released Jose Jose, but he wasn’t a catcher, so whatevs.

tz
8 years ago
Reply to  Clock

I checked out the bottom of the Steamer 600 projections just for kicks, forgetting that this includes tons of minor leaguers. So the guys on the bottom WAR-wise are basically rookie leaguers and such.

Anyway, if this is indicative of the 2020’s generation of major leaguers, the names will be fantastic. Just on the first page we have Yhoelnys Gonzales, Saury Aybar, Ylexander Villaroel, Rochendrick Alexander, Sucre Doval, Saquan Johnson, and Josh Ockimey:

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=26%2ca

And the three pitchers at the bottom are Edinxon Arias, Kieran Lovegrove, Dioscar Romero, with Dylan Sons, Anjul Hernandez, Jhon Nunez, Yerry de los Santos, and a young Royal named Ashe Russell also on page one.

Though my favorite is yet another young D-back, a teenage pitcher named Rodrigo Takahashi. Who, of course, is from Brazil.

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,a