Sabean Plays Russian Roulette with Zack Wheeler
Potential aces don’t grow on trees. So it came as quite a shock that the New York Mets acquired the San Francisco Giants’ top pitching prospect, Zack Wheeler, for free-agent-to-be Carlos Beltran.
Despite an ill-conceived article* on USA Today’s website, which suggests that the organization’s pitching prospects cannot be trusted, this was a shrewd move by the Mets organization and a very questionable decision by the Giants. Even as an amateur, Wheeler was a highly sought after talent and went to San Francisco sixth overall in the 2009 draft. Prior to the 2011 season during the Top 10 prospect lists, I ranked him as the Giants’ second best prospect in the system behind 1B/OF Brandon Belt.
Just 21, he’s posted solid numbers in high-A ball during his time in a potent offensive league. His FIP sits at 3.75 (3.99 ERA) and he’s posted a strikeout rate of 10.02 K/9 in 88.0 innings. Like a lot of young pitchers, he’s struggled with his control (4.81 BB/9) but has plenty of time to tighten up his delivery. Based on limited pro results, Wheeler has the potential to produce above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates at the MLB level. At his rate of development he could be ready to pitch in the Majors by late 2012 or, more likely, mid-to-late 2013.
With Wheeler now gone, the Giants’ top starting pitcher prospect is likely Eric Surkamp. He’s a nice pitcher in his own right but his ceiling is that of a No. 4 starter, which is a far cry from Wheeler’s No. 1 potential. The current starters in San Francisco had best be quite durable because the Giants are not going to find many high-ceiling starters available in the amateur draft if they continue to finish strongly in the standings each season (and therefore pick late in the amateur drafts). Despite what the Mets might tell you, it’s also very difficult to acquire this type of prospect in a trade.
Wheeler immediately becomes the Mets’ best pitching prospect. The organization already has a high-ceiling arm in Matt Harvey, and he’s a little more advanced, but his ceiling is not quite as high as the former Giant. With that said, it’s not hard to envision Wheeler and Harvey forming a very impressive 1-2 punch in three to four years.
The Giants organization stands to receive perhaps a 2.0 WAR performances from Beltran during the final two months of the season, if all goes well. The 34-year-old outfielder could – and probably should – walk at the end of the season. Wheeler, though, has a chance to develop into the type of pitcher that could produce multiple 5.0+ WAR seasons. Yes, minor league prospects are volatile, but the right-hander is one of those players that does not come along very often.
*The article at USA Today suggested that Giants pitching prospects that get traded are tainted. It cited the likes of Tim Alderson and Ryan Vogelsong but cherry-picked those trades. The writer also did not look at – or comment on – the general (and widely known) volatility of pitching prospects. It also did not do research to see how many top pitching prospects flame out when traded by other teams (therefore showing only a fraction of the picture). Nor did it mention the success that the organization has had develping the likes of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez. It might have arguably the most impressive home-made rotation in the Majors.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
A Wheeler-Harvey-Niese top three in a few years could be awesome.
I find your criticism of the USA Today article well-founded.
Brian Sabean? Doing something stupid? Well I never!
Yeah, what has a Brian Sabean-constructed team ever accomplished?!?
We win in spite of our GM’s trading ability, not because of it. Dick Tidrow just doesn’t get enough credit for his management of minor-league talent.
The Giants win BECAUSE of the GM’s trading ability, he knows which pitching prospects to keep and which to trade away, generally.
Of course.
And all of the teams with good GMs lose despite of their FO.
At some point, we/FG are going to admit that managers and FO have zero affect on winning, or we’re going to have to shift how we evaluate FO’s and organizations.
AK707, if you’re going to put the goods on Tidrow (certainly a reasonable position) then you’re ok with this trade because Sabean said that one of the prerequisites for trading Wheeler was that Tidrow said the rest of the arms in the system were still good enough.
Nate hit the nail on the head. We have people in the org to rely on besides Sabean. Its not like in Oakland, Boston, ect, where my perception is that there is a cult of personality built around their GMs.
Assessing FO ability is probably not possible, due to the constantly shifting ranks of people that fill a particular FO. If we make a great decision one year, and its not felt for four more down the road, the people responsible for the good decision might not even be around anymore. It seems like people love shouting “AA is a genius,” without realizing that he is the front man for a large think tank. The best FO are going to be successful based on the collective abilities of many, not the greatness of one.
flags fly forever, and the Giants offense is terrible.
this is a win-win trade; the Giants are in win-now mode and if I was a Giants fan I would be delighted. Maybe Wheeler develops into an “ace”, but chances are he won’t… and Beltran unquestionably makes them a better team and a more serious threat in the playoffs.
this is not Liriano / Nathan for AJ Pierzynski, and criticizing the Giants for making this move is swinging the pendulum way too far in the direction of prospects having more value than winning playoff games NOW. There are always other pitching prospects, and as you note the Giants/Sabean have an established track record of developing arms.
and I say this as a sad Padres fan who wants nothing more than the Giants to burn in hell, and not win a second straight WS.
Sabean has good reason to trust Dick Tidrow, who assured him that there are enough good and potentially great arms stacked up in the Giants farm system to provide all the depth needed.
That said, Sabean has acknowledged that they will need to find “the next Wheeler”. Additionally, they will have to find a way to hold on to Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and perhaps now Vogelsong as long as possible.
I would put Sabean’s nice comments about Wheeler as necessary for keeping up appearances. What is he going to say, “Ha ha, ripped you guys off, we think Wheeler’s a dud”? A GM has to say nice stuff about who he gave up in a trade, else why would anyone want to trade with you in the future?
I think the key statement he made on Wheeler is that he didn’t think that “Wheeler would impact our situation in the immediate future”. And that appears right. He’s not exactly burning up Advanced A right now and he’s already 21 YO. He’s going to take at least two years to make the majors, probably 3-4 years to become a regular contributor to any team. He’ll be 24-25 then, and while that is good, that is not great, not like Cain or Bumgarner making the majors at age 20-21.
I think also that perhaps this could be a statement that the Giants intend to hold onto the big 3 of Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner long-term, and thus we won’t need a Wheeler ace coming up in 3-4 years.
Could it be – I know this is heresy – but could it be that Dick Tidrow has had recent success because he’s had a bunch of high draft picks? Is it really that difficult to get some quality pitchers in the top 10 picks of the draft?
Plus there’s nothing to refute the idea that the success hasn’t been based on luck.
@ MC,
It could be if you fail to look at the development of both Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson, not to mention Sergio Romo, none of whom were high draft selections.
@ obsessivegiantscompulsive
I think you are giving Sabean too much credit. Sure, they identified Alderson’s ship was sinking and moved Boof Bonser who didn’t pan out, but what about Francisco Liriano, and Scott Barnes? Maybe Barnes doesn’t amount to much, but he’s pitching well in Triple-A, and he’s left-handed, not to mention they dealt him for Ryan Garko and didn’t even play him! As a Giants fan I love that they won a World Series, and a number of his moves, such as dumpster diving for Huff, dealing for Lopez and Ramirez last year, amongst others helped that, to assume he only picks the flawed arms to deal is incorrect.
Maybe Wheeler doesn’t pan out, he’s far enough away with issues to overcome that’s a reasonable stance, but maybe he does. I do like the move as the window for taking a run at a WS is only so big, and they didn’t empty the farm, even if they dealt the top prospect. Call me crazy, but I’m happier they dealt Wheeler than Brown, namely because of the Giants struggles developing position players and my belief he is going to be fast tracked and helpful by the beginning of 2013 at the latest.
@john shepardson
Sanchez yes, but Romo and Wilson are relievers. Developing a front-line starter and a late inning reliever are totally different things. There are well-regarded relief arms available to draft in the late first round and beyond, the top amateur starters only last that long if they have signability questions.
If your team drafts a an elite starting pitcher after the first round, that’s a coup. If they draft a top reliever there, it’s almost to be expected.
This. As a giants fan, I’m not happy to lose wheeler, but I understand the decision, and I think it makes sense. We’re trading the future value of wheeler for the present value of beltran.
If we have something like 90% probablity of 2 WAR from beltran in 2011, vs. 20% probability of 15 WAR from wheeler in 2013-15, then expected value here is 1.8 WAR now vs. 3 WAR a few years down the road. I just don’t think it’s that awful a trade, and certainly justifiable for a team in win-now mode.
This comment sums up what the article lacks.
IMO the present value of Wheeler is lower than that, 20% chance of 15+ WAR is pretty generous.
If you look at the last three full seasons (2008-2010) only 10 pitchers topped 15 WAR combined. Adam Wainwright (14.1 WAR) and Jared Weaver13.1 WAR) are sort of close, but nobody else is above 13 WAR combined.
So do you really think there’s a 20% chance he becomes one of the 10-12 best pitchers in baseball by 2013, and maintains that level for three years? Color me skeptical.
This I think is the biggest failure of analysis like this, especially with a prospect who hasn’t even gone above A ball… it greatly overestimates the likelihood of a big success from the prospect.
The Giants are in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot and they just got a massive upgrade that will make them better in the playoffs. Wheeler is not Steven Strasburg or Felix Hernandez in terms of pitching-prospect-studliness; Wheeler has flaws, and the odds are that he does NOT become a frontline starter.
In the context of the playoff run, it’s totally defensible. The Mets should be happy they got a high level talent for 2 months of Beltran, and the Giants should be happy they just got much stronger NOW.
Did the Giants overpay slightly? Probably, in an absolute sense, but the fact of the matter is the baseball trade market is NOT perfectly efficient, and once again, flags fly forever. Win Win.
Batpig — what you’re saying makes sense. But I think it also discounts the fact that pitchers with the ceiling of a #1 are a very rare commodity. Despite the low chance, there has to be more weight given to that high ceiling. I think that’s where the people who view this as an overpay are coming from.
Your analysis is faulty. Beltran is not replacing a replacement-level player. His playing time will come from some combination of Torres, Schierholtz, Rowand, Ross, Burrell and Belt (not necessarily in that order). If these players continue at their levels so far this season, this would be about a 1 WAR over the last two months.
Thus, the incremental value of Beltran is about 1 WAR, assuming he also continues his good play from the season so far.
Also, you’ve arbitrarily limited Wheeler to only 3 seasons with no justification. If Wheeler is even an average pitcher for the 6 seasons of team control, which can’t be that low of a probability, that’s 12 WAR plus a huge possible upside.
The Giants 4 of the Giants 6 starters will soon have to be given huge raises if they continue to pitch as well as they have so far. The Giants are very unlikely to be able to keep all of them, and you cannot convince me that they have a good replacement in the organization without Wheeler.
This was a bad trade for the Giants. This could go down with the trade of Nathan and others for Pierzynski as one of Sabean’s worst disasters.
Gianthusker, even top 6 picks like Wheeler usually don’t end up to be good players. Over 50% of them fail to become a good starting player. The odds favor that he doesn’t amount to anything much at the major league level.
I think you just have to trust Sabean’s record of NOT trading away good prospects and of keeping the prospects who were worth keeping.
20% chance of 15 WAR may be high, but 80% chance of 0 WAR can’t be right.
If you figure he has a 20% chance of 15 WAR, a 20% chance of 10 WAR, a 20% chance of 5, and a 40% chance of 0, then the expected value is 6 WAR, not 3.
That said, I still like the trade, because there has to be nearly a 100% premium on getting Beltran’s value now, just when they need it, and then a hefty discount rate on future expected value.
@obsessive
Can you name Sabean’s track record on keeping prospects vs dealing them? Like you said, most prospects flame out regardless, and seems you are using a confirmation biased / small sample size approach.
@gianthusker
I think it’s fair to use WAR for beltran since I’m doing the same for wheeler, right? Anyway, your point is taken, and of course this is all guesswork. I picked 15WAR over 3 seasons just as a kind of shorthand for wheeler reaching his ‘ace potential’ of course the right way to do this is sum up all the probablilities for various outcomes — something like 5%(20WAR) + 5%(15WAR) + 5%(10WAR) + 20%(5WAR) + 20%(2WAR) + 45%(0WAR) = still something around 3WAR. I was just trying to get my point across about expected value.
@Brendan, good reply to my reply. I respect your position.
Sure… But if you’re willing to part with your top pitching prospect, I’m surprised they didn’t just sweeten the deal a bit more to go after a guy like Pence who can at least be around for the next two years while the Giants pitching staff is still relatively in tact. Using a top prospect in a 1 for 1 trade for a rental, just never makes sense to me. Combine your top prospect(s) and prospects from the tier below to guarantee more value in return.
If you’re trying to win now, Beltran is the better player.
Even as old as he is now, Beltran is a better player than Pence is, or probably ever will be.
I tend to agree. RC is probably right that Beltran this year is better than Pence this year. But the Giants NEXT year look good as well, getting Posey back along with their pitching remaining in tact. I say go for 2 playoff runs with Pence rather than one with Beltran. They will be overwhelming favorites next year in that division as well.
According to all the rumors, Pence’s pricetag seems high though, so we’ll see.
You don’t know what Astros is asking for Pence, they might also want Brown as well as Wheeler.
I definitely agree with all that stuff, but I can’t help but wonder.
Considering what the Phillies gave up for Pence, it’s hard to see the Giants beating that package without offering Belt. If you are making the “this is your championship window, win now” argument, then I think trading away a raw A-ball pitcher like Wheeler, who is 2-3 year away (if he ever shows up), is a completely different animal than trading away MLB-ready prospect at a position of need. Pence’s current performance isn’t far enough (if at all) ahead of Belt’s reasonable upside (and negligible salary) to warrant that kind of deal, even for a contender.
To add to these comments, I think that the value of playoff success can be measured. My recollection is that making the playoffs is worth many millions of dollars and that each round you advance is worth many more millions. While we can’t measure this stuff today, in a few months we could probably look at Beltran’s WAR over the rest of the season, combine it with his WPA in the postseason, examine how far the Giants go, and have a fairly solid picture of what they got out of him (subtracting whatever amount of his salary they’re paying).
In this way, Beltran’s value is pretty simple to measure, unless he gets injured, which is possible. However, what’s a propsect’s value? As others have suggested, he could turn into a very good starter. But, we have to start assigning odds and figuring out when. My recollection is that an A prospect is also worth many millions (assuming he is an A prospect). Anybody have the exact article and figure on hand?
Now, when does that value begin? Because naturally, we have to figure that having the money now is better than having it in the future — not only could they have additional revenue this year thanks to the trade if it gets the Giants further into the playoffs, but it will also increase the value of their TV and radio rights, uniform sales, and ticket prices years before the prospect would be available.
In other words, we can’t just compare WAR to potential WAR and declare it a bad deal. Now, if Sabean had traded a solid pitching prospect for another injury-prone second baseman, that’d be a different story, but Beltran is a great player who could mean a real difference this year.
You make some very good points, though I still disagree with your conclusion.
As far as advancing in the playoffs is concerned, I think (but don’t know for certain) that winning one or two playoff series has a negligible value, but winning the World Series has a huge value.
Thus, if the acquisition of Beltran significantly increases the Giants chances of going all the way, it is a good trade. But this is not the case. The small incremental value he adds can only increase those chances by a very tiny amount.
The chances of Wheeler helping the Giants over several seasons must be larger than that tiny amount.
@ GiantHusker
That is assuming you expect Schierholtz to be playing at his true talent level and the value of adding him to be incremental. I’m not necessarily sold on Schierholtz level of play. I am incredibly frustrated Belt isn’t getting an extended look as Huff has been garbage. Ross crushes lefties if memory serves correct, and his glove has value, but limiting his exposure against some of the tougher right handers isn’t necessarily the worst thing. That said, I just don’t see Bochey micro managing the most wins out of the current outfield situation, and optioning Belt is example one.
Is there any merit to the notion that Wheeler’s arm action may mean Tommy John or some elbow ailment sooner rather than later?
Of course there is. It’s not a perfect delivery. But you can’t expect these things either. Giants fans are bummed to lose Wheeler, even as we acknowledge that the Giants’ FO seems to know what they’re doing wrt young pitchers (and I actually disagree that the USA Today article was ill-founded; the Giants do indeed have a track record of picking the right winners among their farm pitchers).
Yes and the Giants also wanted to change Lincecum’s delivery in the minors but his father said no way. C’mon guys this is idol worship.
Alderson and Vogelsong and who else?
And he gave Liriano?
What are most teams averages in developing top talent? 1 in 3? 1 in 2? Doesn’t seem like the sample size is big enough regardless to claim Sabean is great at letting average pitchers go.
I guess this is just my opinion, but Harvey would certainly be ahead of Wheeler at this point. He has a great K/BB, 2.73 FIP, and is getting strong groundball rates in AA. The high ERA is completely misleading. I guess you *could* argue Wheeler has a tad more upside, but Harvey is definitely closer to reaching that ceiling than Wheeler at this point.
But, in any case, as a Mets fan, I’m thrilled by the fact we nabbed Wheeler.
Ya, Harvey has been more impressive than I was expecting. His first few outings in AA were kinda rough, but his last 3 have been a complete turnaround capped off with a great 7IP 10K night last night.
Wheeler, Harvey, Familia, Niese. I was getting so nervous the Mets wouldn’t get a good prospect back but this is great. I love the K’s. Why do you say Harvey doesn’t have the potential of Wheeler? Something like 11 k/9 3 bb/9 50-60% gb in double a. (30ish innings) similar stats in single a.
And Mejia, with Gee, Dickey, and Santana also under team control in 2013. (And Pelfrey too.)
As a Mets fan, I’m thrilled with the trade. I’m also thrilled that there’s a debate about which high-ceiling Met pitching prospect with ace potential is better. It’s been awhile since Met fans have had these type of things to think about.
Anyway, I agree with the many that say this is a win-win trade. If I were a Giants fan, yeah, I’d be bummed that I lost my top pitching prospect, but Beltran makes this lineup much better. And the Giants are probably going to have to beat the Phillies, Braves, and Yankees/Red Sox to repeat. Beltran gives them a much better shot IMO.
At least right now, at this point in time, I think it’s appropriate for both Mets and Giants fans to be happy with this trade.
Marc I have a question about Wheelers k-rate, does the overall high k-rate in the Cal league temper a little of the expectations for Wheeler? Also I read somewhere there have been only a handful of major leaguers who went to pitch innings in the big leagues with a walk rate as high as Wheelers.
Of course this could be all desperate analysis to try and figure out why my favorite team just traded its best in the minors prospect for a 34 year old bad knees rental.
You are a Giants fan but you chose a handle representing another MLB team?
Good point about elevated K-rate, particularly with regards to San Jose’s home park, Mayo did a study of the worse parks for strikeouts (meaning have a lot more than average) and San Jose was number one. A hitter interviewed said that it was the bad background, made it hard to see pitches.
I would also add that he’s already 21 YO and still learning to pitch in Advanced A ball, he still has a lot of development before he can make the majors and fulfill his ace potential.
I don’t think this is that much of an overpay by the Giants perspective. Wheeler is probably what a B+ maybe A- type prospect. That is what around 12M at the most in surplus value, and probably 10 is more realistic.
Beltran will give them around 2+ WAR and whatever extra value you derive from being in the playoffs, and possibly going farther because of his addition. Being as the Mets are picking up most of his salary he could easily have 8-10M in surplus value if not more.
Seems pretty fair if you ask me.
You’re giving Beltran credit for the Giants getting into the playoffs? It is very unlikely his addition makes the difference. The Giants will probably be there anyway. Who’s going to catch them, Arizona?
I agree. The Giants probably makes the playoffs anyway without him, but getting him probably ensures that, I think.
They got him more for the playoffs, I believe.
From Baseball Prospectus
Since Sabean took over after the 1996 season, he has traded away 41 young pitchers with fewer than 200 innings pitched in the Major Leagues:
41 pitchers traded away since 1996
58.9 career WARP
Six homegrown pitchers on Giants’ 2010 postseason roster
53.7 career WARP
See, that’s the kind of thing that reputations are built on.
Maybe it would be a good thing for the Giants if Wheeler develops into a good pitcher for the Mets, if it helps teams be less wary of trading for Giants pitching prospects in the future.
Great research! It’s amazing what damage facts can do to myths.
That 53.7 seems to break down to
Lincecum 27.X
Cain 23.X
Everyone else 3.X (This is hard to believe, so I wonder about their numbers)
Lincecum spent 60 innings in the minors, so it would have been hard to give him away in time. I’ll give him Cain, I guess.
Exactly – almost half of that value was garnered by a player – Lincecum – that became great almost instantaneously. Give him credit for DRAFTING him, but no credit for not trading him away. Even Steve Phillips wouldn’t have traded timmy..
Great counter…
Like Brandon said, the credit is in drafting Cain/Lincecum – not, not trading them.
There’s a SEVERE lack of appreciation for the drafting of Lincecum, one of the all-time great ballsy draft picks.
[1] First, there was him mechanics. His arm was certain to fly off at any moment. That was a given. Just as Prior was the “can’t miss” pitching prospect, Lincecum was the “can’t last” prospect. Yeah, he throws hard and his ball moves a ton, but that won’t do you any good when he’s on his 4th surgery in 4 years. That was the common thinking. There’s a handful of gurus still waiting for that to happen so they can launch their “told ya so” parade.
[2] Secondly, there’s his size. Everyone knows little guys don;t last on the mound. Even if his arm lasts (and well *know* it won’t), his body won’t be able to handle the workload.
[3] Thirdly, there’s him and his dad, both of whom wiill throw a poop fit if any coach ever tried to change or tinker with his mechanics, even if it is to save him from certain doom.
I mean, there’s just know way this scrawny little, trickster, prospect can make it. It’s obvious.
He was drafted twice before in the 40+ round (by CHC and CLE), before SFG took him 10th, behind Hochevar, Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, and Clayton Kershaw, Scherzer followed, as did Jeffress, Drabek, Kennedy, etc.
Obviously, SFG called him up to the majors quickly, before his career ending injuries set in.
According to BR, TL55 has earned $23M so far (including 2011), and according to FG he’s accumulated 27.6 WAR … a surplus value of $101.2M (using $4.5M/WAR).
I can’t help but think that if it had been a sabermetric-friendly GM that drafted him, despite all of the “risks”, we’d still be hearing about the genius of it (both the drafting and the rushing to the ML). 100M of surplus value is the type of thing that transforms an organization.
When it comes to prospects and the unpredictability of it all, landing someone that produces that much surplus value has to be a MAJOR feather in the cap … overshadowing a host of lesser moves that may have failed.
Anyway, the drafting of Lincecum and getting him to the ML quickly is one of the all-time great GM moves. No risk, no reward I guess.
Those stats are extremely skewed and misleading, like all stats are.
Of the pitchers that were traded away, how many were top draft picks? Every year in a draft there are say 30 picks in the first round; then say 250 picks in the lower rounds.
OF COURSE when you trade guys away, most of them are going to be from the lower rounds. This is flawed stats because its self-selective statistics; i.e. far more players don’t make the majors then do; it’s sampling bias.
I wouldn’t wipe my *** with the paper these stats were printed on. The board must be just infiltrated with Giants fans apparently (I am agnostic as far as teams go).
A more effective measure would be if he traded away, say 10 “top prospects” / top draft picks however you want to define it; and kept 10 of the same, and more than 50% of the guys that were traded away failed and more than 50% of the guys he kept became successful…over a lengthy period of time.
That is a cleaner set of data from which to take a statistical sample. Otherwise this is total nonsense. Maybe you should work for the government or law schools I am sure your “skills” would be put to good use there.
MC, I agree with you and posted a similar sentiment a few minutes after you did. However, he did mention that it came from Baseball Prospectus – it wasn’t his own research.
Off the top of my head, here are some of the notable pitching names names (i.e. top level prospects) that Sabean has dealt:
1. Ryan Vogelsong
2. Francisco Liriano
3. Joe Nathan
4. Boof Bosner
5. Jesse Froppert
6. Jeremy Accardo
7. Jerome Williams
8. David Aardsma
9. Tim Alderson
Vogelsong was traded for Jason Schmidt (big win)
Liriano, Bosner and Nathan was traded for Pierzynski (big loss)
Froppert was traded for Torrealba and Winn (winn)
Accardo was traded for Shea Hillenbrand and Vinnie Chulk (loss)
Williams and Aardsma was traded for LaTroy Hawkins (big loss)
Alderson was traded for Freddie Sanchez (big win)
If someone wants to crunch the numbers and provide a better analysis of the trades, please do.
People should remember though that we should we should take into account how useful a player’s potential is a team. For instance, Alderson, who looks like he may become a useful reliever for the Pirates down the road, had almost zero use to the 2009-10 Giants, whereas Freddie Sanchez’s ability to be an average 2nd baseman during 2010 was pivotal to the Giant’s World Series run.
In the same way even if Wheeler turns into a dominant No. 1 ace three years from now, Beltran could be incredibly more valuable as a rental if he helps the Giants defend their title. As a fan, I would much rather grab a title when that small window of opportunity is open than perpetually compete for Wild Cards. Of course, Beltran better not pull a Ricky Ledee.
I haven’t read the article at BP, but did they mention data on:
1) Of the 41 pitchers they traded away, how many were good prospects? Not all ‘young pitchers’ are the same.
2) How many of their keepers (aside from the 6 mentioned above) had any contribution at the big league level?
It looks nice to see that 6 players essentially have a higher WARP than 41 players. But what if they kept 35 players that were useless? At that point, you’re looking at a 41:41 split. You really need to look at all of the players they kept vs. all of the players that they traded, and how far along they were in their development.
Yup.
#2 particularly. The list of pitchers the team didn’t trade away has got to be several times larger than the list of pitchers they did. Even if you only select for highly-rate prospects, I suspect the keepers will handily outnumber those traded.
Plus you’ve got to account of pitchers who were traded only after they’d lost much of their prospect luster (Foppert and Williams from Liem’s list above, for instance).
It might be more accurate to say that Giants pitching prospects that the Giants decide to trade away can’t be trusted, more so than Giants pitching prospects in general can’t be trusted.
is it really true that you can’t find high-ceiling arms if you’re a winning team? it might be a bit harder, but current top prospect lists are littered with high-ceiling arms that were drafted outside of the top 30 overall, and even the first round. just looking at klaw’s top 50 (a list that i can personally access), the following guys were all drafted outside of the top 30: matt moore, jarred cosart, tyler skaggs, casey kelly, taijuwan walker, mike montgomery, zach lee, a.j. cole, allen webster, jake odorizzi, tyrell jenkins and drew hutchinson. and that doesn’t even get into all the high-ceiling arms to be found in the international market: teheran, martinez, perez, vizcaino etc
if they’re as good at evaluating pitching talent as their track record exists, they should be able to make up for wheeler w/in the next few years. and their current staff is young enough to absorb that, barring some tragic disaster.
that should say “as their track record indicates”****
also i think their stadium & staff potentially allows them to do more with lesser pitching prospects, but that’s another discussion.
Why’s everyone forgetting about my main man Hank Mejia?
Predictable article. Of course he’s “playing Russian Roulette” (incredibly dumb thing to say), rather than “trying to repeat as CHAMPIONS”. Russian Routlette? From the team that has starting pitching as a strength, but with no offense?
The Giants should be trying to build/maintain their stud rotation for 2-3 years from now, rather than trying to win titles … it’s the sabermetric way … always plan for the future and always treat every prospect like they will perform at maximum potential, because such a high % of them do (tongue-in-cheek).
The Giants should play for the future to be in the uh, well, the uh, same position they are in right now.
Legit chances to win titles are infrequent for most teams. Jump all over them when they are present.
We get it already, the Giants have a dumb GM and we have to start with that as a priori. Also any player that has played for CWS, DET, etc is not as valuable as their metrics state. We get that too. We can stop with the overt word play to cast every decision/player in the worst light, rather than just presenting the facts and letting the scenario play out.
—————————————–
We could take all of the comments about it being difficult to find quality starting pitching and assign them to any future article about the Blue jays Front Office. Just saying.
YES. Exactly.
This is what I mean when I said “the pendulum has swing too far” up above. You are going to the playoffs, you have a chance to get a premium bat into a bad lineup. Who cares if some esoteric expected present value calculation puts you, 1.8 WAR behind on the deal. WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP. Nothing is more important than that.
This is not Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, or Liriano/Nathan/Bonser for Pierzynski, where the GM crapped out some top tier talent for a marginal “veteran presence” upgrade. You are getting an all-star level bat a single, although very good, pitching prospect.
If the “best case scenario” for both sides occurs, and the Giants win the WS and the Mets get a solid #1-2 starter for a few years, I don’t think either side will be unhappy.
I view the MLB WS similarly to the World Series of Poker. Once you’re at the final table, there are going to be things happen that you cannot control, and the best player might not win the bracelt.
However, you want to go into the final table with as MANY chips as you can. The guy with the most chips has the best chances of winning … and a guy with 1,000,000 chips against a guy with 100,000 chips is not really the definition of a “crapshoot”.
Players play for immortality (championships, etc) not just being consistently very good, and that’s the mentality I still have. A GM may have a different mindset where he views it as his job to field a competitive team as many years as he can. I can’t/won’t say which mentality/philosophy is best, only that they are different based on perspective.
Two words: gambler’s fallacy.
In terms of gambling, this is trying to come to the final table with more chips than the other guy. You don;t go to the final table hoping to catch all the breaks (or Cody Ross catching 3 Aces on the draw).
My main disagreement was with the notion of “Russian Roulette”, since failure in that scenario results in death or finality. If Wheeler turns out great and the Giants don;t make it (or win) to the WS in 2011, the Giants won’t be much worse off for the 2012 season … and that’s sort of a “worse case scenario” for SFG.
With all the money the Giants will make from a second consecutive playoff appearance, they can probably buy another Zach Wheeler on the international FA market. He’s a very good pitching prospect, but not a once-in-a-lifetime talent.
I don;t think the playoffs are a “crapshoot” as people are using the word.
I think the playoffs are a crapshoot as in using “loaded die” to play a game. Sure, anything can happen, but the odds are in the favor of the loaded die.
You want to load the dice as much as possible before the series starts, and then it can be random and luck … but it can also favor the team with more talent in most situations.
We really need to stop acting like the playoffs are just a blind-folded game of pin the tail on the donkey.
I am saddened by all the bad mouthing of Sabean. He put together last year’s team and rebuilt that while be handcuffed by Magowan’s desire to win a World Series title with Barry Bonds.
Best. Pitching. Staff. of. this. era. And it looks like it will last at least a few more years, if not for the rest of the decade if Neukom bankrolls the payroll to keep them together. You can’t do that if you are as stupid as people make Sabean out to be. It takes a large amount of excellent talent evaluation to know who to keep – Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Wilson, Romo – and who not to (almost everyone traded or let go).
Though I would also note that Sabean does have another blemish on his record, besides the AJ trade, as Kevin Correia has done OK for himself after being DFAed by the Giants.
About the USA Today article, mentioning how great the Giants starting rotation is has no bearing on the article’s point: the article pointed out that teams should have a buyer beware warning when accepting a Giants prospect pitcher in exchange in a trade. And so far that is true, even in the AJ trade, Liriano is a great pitcher, but having to manage half the time not knowing if Liriano is going to pitch well for you has to be shortening the GM’s and manager’s baseball life and adding a ton of white hairs (Nathan was not a prospect).
Heck, really if you go through all of Sabean’s trades, whether for prospects or veterans, the Giants rarely give up more than they get. Sure, there are a lot where they don’t get the help that they were hoping for, but would you rather have a GM who tries to do something to improve, even if the odds are low, or one who sits on his hands and don’t do anything? Particularly if his track record is that he very, very rarely gives up anything good in exchange for that chance to improve?
The likeliness is that Wheeler will take a good number of years to figure things out. He is just too wild and he don’t really have a good strikeout pitch as his K/9 is good on the face of it, not so good when you realize it is Advanced A ball and he’s already 21 YO. He may turn out to be an ace, but the likelihood is that he probably will be a bust and at best an average pitcher. That is just how pitching prospects go, it is a lottery ticket that might win you the jackpot, but more likely you will lose and at best get back some of the value you put into it.
And an average pitcher is worth a lot, don’t get me wrong, but they are a dime a dozen for the Giants to develop, whereas you can’t find a player of Beltran’s caliber that easily.
I also like what Jamie noted, they could potentially get a replacement via the international FA route (though I would note that the record there is horrible in terms of actually finding someone good by throwing money around) but I would note that they could do the same in the next amateur draft and draft a signability pitcher who falls to them with the $4M they got for Wheeler (which basically paid back the Giants what they put into him monetarily).
Also, while I agree with the point in the comments about how Beltran will not produce much more than what we currently have in the last two months of the season, that is not why the Giants got him. First of all, he’s going to be one of the big guns in the playoffs. Second, he will provide some vet leadership. Third, the hope is that his batting will take the pressure off Huff to perform and help him turn his season around. Fourth, there might be a chance that the Giants can retain him, if he’s willing to sign a 2 year contract. WIth his knees’ history, he might not get much of a longer offer, even to DH in the AL, maybe 3 years, they can overpay a little to make it a tough decision.
Also, that overlooks the talent difference. Beltran is a 6 WAR player over a season, the others 2-3 WAR at best, looking at 2 months obscures and ignores that fact. That will make a big difference in the lineup.
recent deals Sabean has made haven’t been that great though: re-sign Huff, sign Tejada to $6.5 mil, draft Panik in what appears to be a huge reach for no apparent reason as he was likely sitting there at their next pick and now this Beltran deal which really only pays off if he gets you to the NLCS and/or World Series as they likely make the playoffs anyway. So Beltran has just a few series’ to make this trade payoff. its a gamble and the odds are against it.
As I recall, Belt started as a ‘huge reach’ as well. You would be wise to temper your speculation on the impact of Beltran prior to the playoffs. Suppose his differential effect provides the Giants with home field advantage in the NL playoffs as a for instance.
Best pitching staff of this era?
2001-2011, by WAR
Red Sox, 254.1
Yankees, 235.5
White Sox, 226.6
2001-2011, by ERA
Braves, 3.85 (15481.0 IP)
As, 3.88 (15432.2 IP)
Dodgers, 3.89 (15438.1 IP)
2006-2011, by WAR
White Sox, 131.5
Red Sox, 126.3
Angels, 117.2
2006-2011, by ERA
Padres, 3.88 (8269.1 IP)
Dodgers, 3.90 (8191.2 IP)
Giants, 3.91 (8186.2 IP)
I’m not seeing it. Giants have a great staff, no doubt, but it’s not been top of its class long enough to be best of the “era.”
Looking at the pitching stats you mentioned for 2006-11, I think it’s good reason for SFG to add offense. While Cody Ross could turn into Mr. Clutch a second time, I’d rather go into the playoffs with the best offense I could field.
Ah, I think this deal is ok for the Giants. They already have an excellent young nucleus of pitchers. Plus, they will generally run with a top-10 MLB payroll, meaning IF wheeler turns out to be a legit ace, they will have the potential to sign another in free agency (just hopefully not another Zito). Beltran may not help their standing much for the playoffs (locked in to the 2 seed; rematch w/ Atl), but Sabean had an eye FOR the playoffs, and Beltran is obviously a big upgrade over their current muck. He can afford to worry about 2013 in 2013 so to speak.
I think the trade was a good one for the Giants. I think they may have been better finding a cheaper alternative, but they were beating everyone in the NL before they got Beltran, and his presence is only gonna help.
That said naming the Giants pitching the best of this era is exactly why Giants fans have gotten such a bad reputation. I live in the Bay Area and see both A’s and Giants games regularly…the competition in the NL isn’t even close to on Par with the AL. Every Giants game they seem to be losing until a late inning error by the other team gives the Giants the game back, or some relief pitcher who used to be good 5 years ago blows the lead in the 8th. Factor the ridiculously high powered offenses of the Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees that the Giants pitchers don’t have to face regularly. Sure, they accomplished something amazing by winning a world series, but others have pitched their teams to championships….look at the 03 Marlins. Lets see the Giants actually BE the best of their era before we say they are the best of their era period…
Hello there, just become aware of your weblog through Google, and found that it is really informative. I’m gonna watch out for brussels. I will be grateful for those who proceed this in future. A lot of people can be benefited out of your writing. Cheers!
Hated this trade at the time and still hate it.