Samardzija: Not In Command

It seems like every year, a young flamethrowing rookie comes up from the minors and makes a big impact on a playoff team’s bullpen. Joba Chamberlain, Pat Neshek, Francisco Rodriguez… it’s becoming an annual tradition. This year, Jeff Samardzija is being anointed as that guy after coming up and blowing hitters away with his 95 MPH fastball.

There’s one huge difference between Samardzija and the guys who were fall sensations in years past – the ability to throw strikes. His walk rate is okay (3.09 BB/9) for a power reliever, but it’s masking the fact that he’s only thrown 58% of his pitches for strikes. That matches Daniel Cabrera’s career total, for comparison’s sake. After a sparkling debut in his first two appearances, he’s consistently been unable to put the ball over the plate since, putting up a 53% strike percentage in his last six appearances.

That’s just not going to work. You can’t miss the plate half the time and be successful in the major leagues. Hitters will just lay off the pitches that aren’t over the plate until you come over with something they can crush, or wait for you to give them first base. The old cliche about the best pitch in baseball being strike one is true – stuff is important, but command is vital. Right now, Samardzija’s command is walking the line of not being good enough for the major leagues. His stuff gives him a margin of error, but he’s pretty close to the end of that margin.

His big leap forward has been a great story for the Cubs organization, but as they head towards October, they have to be realistic about what he’s going to give them down the stretch. The power arm is always enticing, but radar velocities don’t matter when the ump yells “ball four”. The Cubs need to be helping him get the ball over the plate more often, and until he does, he shouldn’t be counted on as the savior of that bullpen.