Scouting the 2016 Prep Draft Prospects in Jupiter

Last weekend featured the first event I covered as Lead Prospect Analyst for FanGraphs. I cannot imagine a better crash course in the who’s who of draft prospects than the Perfect Game WWBA tournament in Jupiter, Florida. Jesse Burkhart and I spent the weekend watching players and exchanging notes and ideas; be sure to check out his post for some information on other top high school prospects attending the event.

This article will hopefully be a little different than what you can find elsewhere covering the tournament. There were too many players in too short a period to reasonably do a ranked list, and boring everybody with a long list with a short blurb on each is no fun. Instead, I chose three players who are either undervalued or just generally interesting to me, and have given a full analysis of what makes each one provocative while also attempting to characterize their limitations. These are not the three best players we saw in Jupiter, but rather the ones whose strengths I wanted to illuminate. Read this as a case study on three specific players as well as an introduction to the thought process through which I go while looking at amateur prospects.

Following the three main write-ups, I’ve also posted some thoughts on players of interest upon whom Jesse doesn’t touch in his piece. Some are probable first or second round picks for next June, others are lesser ranked guys whose upside you might interest you. None of these evaluations are set in stone, since although I had seen a decent number of the top rated guys on video and read others’ thoughts prior to Jupiter, these are still fresh faces to me. As I said in my introductory post when I was hired, I want you guys to engage in discussions on any players you have seen or questions you may have about the discussed prospects here.

Drew Mendoza SS/3B Minneola, FL (Florida State)

Before seeing him play last week, I had already heard of Mendoza’s defensive skills. He possesses a reputation for being a quality shortstop prospect with excellent footwork and range to pair with a strong arm. Kiley McDaniel said this about Mendoza in his early 2016 draft rankings posted earlier this season:

Mendoza was a skinny shortstop with some feel to hit from the left side that was a solid follow, then he hit two homers this spring off RHP Brady Singer, who will likely go in the first 50-60 picks this summer. Mendoza has filled out his lanky 6’4 frame a bit but still looks like a [sic] shortstop for now, with the bat showing more impact.

I was disappointed not to see him make any plays that challenged his abilities to corroborate the rep, but in warm ups and fielding practice his skills are still readily apparent. He carries himself well, with good balance and fluid movements catching and throwing the ball. The athleticism in his arm alone is exceptionally smooth. What I was surprised to see is how impressive he is at the plate.

Mendoza’s batting practice was a quiet display of line drives between left-center and right-center field, showing the feel and swing of an established veteran rather than a prospect out to impress. Though none of his hits were peppering the fence like some of his more physical teammates, he hit the ball flush with little slice or fade as it carried into the outfield. Watching him swing, his back (left) arm works almost as silky smooth as his throwing arm in the field. The back elbow drops in behind his hip as his lower half starts to turn, bringing his hands into the contact zone very early, all while keeping his barrel cocked and connected to his turn. His swing plane shows a slight upswing that you want to see in a developing doubles/home run hitter, though in the games it erred a bit on the level side. His legs are skinny but his hips work efficiently, not needing a violent turn to produce ample force out of his lower half.

In his game at-bats, he had a tendency to reach out with his front leg instead of taking a true step, keeping his center of mass a little more over the back foot. Despite the perceived imbalance, he showed the ability to keep his body in a good athletic position (i.e. head staying over the middle of his hips) even on tough offspeed pitches. He hits the ball a lot harder than you would expect from his build, impressively hitting one of the highest fly balls of the tournament to straightaway left field. Although it was caught, that he had the strength and swing path to create that kind of lift bodes well for his future development as a great all-around hitter.

His game approach seems to be based on patience rather than selectivity at this stage, not swinging at a few hittable strikes early in counts and occasionally chasing out of the zone later in at-bats. Still, he never looks uncomfortable at the plate, nor does he try to do too much with the bat. The video depicts the only at-bat I witnessed in which he got himself out, rather than the pitcher out-executing him. I’ll bank on his future plate-discipline skills being in the middle of the road, with a contact rate above average as well. He has a good enough feel at the plate that, combined with a budding elite swing and tons of potential physical development, he has a chance to be one of the best pure hitters in his draft class, with average or better power as a bonus.

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Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF New Kensington, PA (Liberty)

Kirilloff doesn’t excite you with crazy bat speed or big movements at the plate. He profiles as a solid-average fielder at first or slightly below average outfielder, if he can remain there. His arm is strong, having been clocked as high as 92 from the outfield and 89 off the mound according to Perfect Game, but the long wind-up and inevitable slowing of his feet as he gets bigger leave him with more of an average arm functionally. His raw speed currently is above average, but a slow first step and future strength gains likely leave it as an average to fringe-average tool.

What Kirilloff does do is hit. He has a simple, efficient swing with a bat path built for hitting high line drives and deep fly balls. His bat gets on the plane of the pitch early and stays on it for a long time with great extension through the ball. In Jupiter last weekend, Kirilloff put together some impressive drives and, more importantly, well-executed at-bats throughout multiple games. After winning the Perfect Game Home Run Derby in San Diego a couple months ago, there are still doubts about how much power he will ultimately have. The reservation appears to originate from his low-effort swings at the plate. As his hips start to fire, his hands gently start to descend behind him before accelerating forward and up through the ball, rather than the left arm rolling the elbow underneath to create more a “whippy” look as the hands slingshot past the elbow.

Instead, his hands and back elbow look like they roll down into the zone at the same time. No doubt this is a slight blemish on an otherwise great swing. The same quality can be found in hitters who fail to really drive the ball, and sometimes can cost them the ability to adjust to offspeed pitches when fooled. Kirilloff’s slower start, as well as his balanced lower half and strong contact skills, allows him to stay on balls regardless, and lets him use his raw strength to still create a lot of functional power. Watch a few of the balls jump off his low-effort bat, and those questions clear up pretty quickly. Despite the slow start to his swing as his hands start to move, he has plenty of bat speed where it matters most, through the hitting zone. The lackadaisical look his hands have is beefed up by a powerful hip drive and a solid middle-of-the-field disposition to all parts of his swing, with very little side-to-side movement that could take him off the ball.

He stays very relaxed and has a knack for swinging at good pitches, having a professional-looking approach at the plate geared toward driving the ball around the field. At present, his best drives to center and left are lower line-drive singles and doubles, unlike the towering fly balls he can hit to right, but his swing path and a few fly ball outs to left in Jupiter suggest he will have no problem hitting the ball over the fence to all parts of a professional ballpark. Kirilloff already looks bigger than his listed 6-foot-2, 195 pound size, and he still has some physical maturation left to go. After full body and skill development, he looks like a legitimate bet for at least a solid-average hit and plus power tool. There is enough here to believe both estimates may be a shade conservative, despite the inevitable disagreements over his bat speed.

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Graham Ashcraft RHP Brownsboro, AL (Mississippi State)

Ashcraft has seen a nice progression over the last couple seasons as a pitching prospect. He has always been arm-dominant in his motion, with his legs not being the prime producer of force propelling the ball toward the plate. His legs are internally rotated naturally, with his knees turned in toward each other slightly, making him look bow-legged. As a result, he cannot physically get the same efficient force out of his legs as a pitcher with an ideal body could. Since his resting position is with his legs turned in, it takes less turning of the legs to bring the hips with them, as he cannot fully externally rotate his legs without reaching a physical limit.

If you understand how the form of his lower half affects his movements, then how this affects his delivery is readily apparent. As he strides, his front leg starts to open up toward the plate, bringing his hips open earlier in the delivery than normal. This works its way up the body to his core, shoulders and arm, forcing his whole motion to open up and the arm to fling around his shoulders rather than coming more over the top. In the past, this pattern resulted in a lot of inconsistency in his release, compounded by how muscled his arm action was (VIDEO).

In Jupiter last weekend, Ashcraft still demonstrated the same tendency, but the timing of his motion was a lot simpler. At his best, his front side stayed closed a lot longer, and there was no corresponding rush to get everything else opened up to the plate. His arm action was much less labored, and he was able to mix up arm slots at will rather than as an unintended consequence. Jesse’s video, embedded above, depicts some good examples of moments where he still has the same issue pop up, but the vast improvement in a couple seasons is reason to be optimistic for his future.

As for his actual repertoire, Ashcraft threw the best breaking ball in Jupiter, flashing at least plus when his delivery lined up. His fastball presently sits 89-93, touching 94 a handful of occasions, with good life that varied with changes to his arm angle. I did not get a good look at a seldom used change-up, though I did witness one or two at 84 mph. The inconsistency in his motion will continue to pop up, assuredly, but another season or two of improvement could give him two plus pitches in his fastball and curve, a recipe for success in the bullpen if nothing else. His physical maturation over the past two years should continue to foster the need for improved body control, and overall he could shape up into quite the weapon on the mound.

Other Notables

Carlos Cortes 2B/OF/BHP Oviedo, FL (South Carolina)

Standing at just 5-foot-10, Cortes packs a lot of punch for his size relative to the high school draft crop. He generates plus-plus bat speed and was among the leaders each day of the tournament in batted ball exit speed. If you like raw physical tools, this is the guy for you. I see big actions in his swings, but they might be too big to the point of getting out of control. He is very rotational in his swing movements, resulting in power only to dead-pull. Because of his rotational mechanics, he comes over and across a lot of balls with the barrel, leading to hard-hit balls that have a lot of topspin, and thus do not carry like they could. The high-effort approach is extreme enough to cause swings and misses at times. Still, you can’t deny the raw explosiveness to his hitting game, and cleaning up his swing could mean a huge win for a team drafting him. Consider me skeptical, as currently I think he ends up with below-average hit and above-average power tools. I will be interested to see more of him closer to the draft.

Amazingly, Cortes throws right-handed playing second base and left-handed in the outfield. I didn’t get to see a lot of him on defense besides in warm-ups, so earmark that one for later, too.

Luis Curbelo SS/2B Carolina, PR (Miami)

Curbelo impressed me in his batting practice round on the first day, displaying the best swing I saw the rest of the weekend. He has a great base, excellent hand path and quickness, and a real professional quality to his cuts. In the games, the swing was still there, but Curbelo had a hard time finding the ball with the barrel in the six or seven at-bats in which I saw him. It was too small a look to judge his pitch tracking and contact abilities, and swings like his don’t come around often, but I’m not settled on a projection for him yet. His listed positing of shortstop probably will not translate to higher levels, as he lacks the requisite agility or positioning to play in the middle infield. Even if he were only a first baseman (not going that far), this is definitely a guy I’ll be looking out for come this spring.

Zach Linginfelter RHP/1B/OF Sevierville, TN (Tennessee)

Linginfelter sat 90-94 on his fastball that was relatively straight. His curveball flashed plus on multiple occasions, and looks like his best pitch going forward. The fastball will need to add a bit more sustained velocity to project much better than an average pitch. His raw stuff will carry him through his spring season without much trouble, but he did show some command issues in Jupiter. Already being a big, strong kid, and lacking obvious athleticism, he will have to count on lots of reps doing the trick for his locating the ball with authority. It might just be a simple rhythm problem, with him having an awkward hesitation as he starts his stride toward the plate.

Ryan Zeferjahn RHP Topeka, KS (Kansas)

Zeferjahn stood out in his start for keeping the ball down in the zone with all three pitches the whole outing. His fastball came in 90-92 without much movement, but hitters had trouble squaring it up at the knees. The same effectiveness extended to his average curve and changeup, neither of which were exceptional in movement or velocity. As a good athlete with already present command, Zeferjahn is ahead of the curve relative to other high school guys. He could end up being a great pickup for a team looking for a pitcher who can really pitch, rather than a radar gun darling.

Anthony Locey RHP/3B/1B Columbus, GA (Uncommitted)

The big right-hander impressed scouts facing his first few batters, hitting 94 on the gun multiple times. While the heat was exciting to see, it doesn’t come without issue. Locey’s delivery looks consistent and repeatable, but his lower body is stiff and relatively unathletic, leaving his arms to do all the work creating that velocity. He likely will not be seeing much in the way of velocity gains as he matures, since his upper body has to work pretty hard to get where he is now, and his command is unspectacular as well. Watching him from behind the backstop, it seems to be easy to key in on the ball out of his hand, perhaps because of the big moves his upper body has to perform to get the ball moving. As for offspeed, I only saw a few curveballs, none of which looked better than below-average offerings. The velocity will play, however, and maybe the right program will get him more use out of his lower half. I’ll be surprised if he can, though.

Grant Bodison SS/2B Simpsonville, SC (Coastal Carolina)

It’s questionable how much he will be able to tap into his athletic skillset. Bodison has a very quick bat with a lot of swing and miss. He has plus range and at least an average arm, but his long actions on transfers and footwork diminish the utility of his tools. As it stands, I don’t see him developing into any more than a below-average hitter, and the fielding side will likely be limited to average or solid-average unless he cleans some of his skillwork up. He does have a solid plus run tool.

Alexis Torres SS Caguas, PR (Uncommitted)

Torres has the obvious tools to play the infield, but similar to Bodison, his footwork and transfer to release skills are a bit lacking for a prototypical shortstop. At the plate, he has an excellent hand path with tons of athleticism in his swing. Right now his swing and build don’t project to give him even average power, but average or better grades across the board otherwise make him a very intriguing player to follow.

Drake Fellows RHP Plainfield, IL (Vanderbilt)

With a fastball that has a bit of rise and good velocity, Fellows could be an intriguing project pick for an organization next year. His changeup showed signs of being an above-average pitch, and his slider a tick better, but his consistency is a question mark for now with some mechanical issues to clean up. His lower half opens up wide as he strides toward the first-base dugout, causing him to leave a lot of fastballs up and his offspeed flattening out. He should be able to adjust well given some attention to his delivery, since he does have above-average body control and athleticism in general. For his sake, though, I’ll quietly hope he goes to Vanderbilt to polish up with a bit less pressure for a few years.

Nolan Williams SS Kansas City, KS (Louisiana State)

Williams was another guy whose swing I really liked but who seemed to have issues barreling balls up in games. He had a couple big drives throughout the tournament, but watching him through a few at-bats I get the sense his contact rate is going to be a limiting factor. Though I like his swing as a whole, he also has a tendency for his hips to spin out from under him, leaving him with only his upper-body strength to do some damage to the ball. Either way, it’s obvious when he’s locked in he can be a monster at the plate. Overall, I think he ends up somewhere around average in the hit and power departments, but he is definitely someone I will plan on getting more looks at before really settling on a projection.

Will Proctor SS/3B Manhattan Beach, CA (Georgia)

Like Curbelo and Williams, Proctor showed some swing and miss problems against a variety of pitching quality. His bat speed and path are both above average to plus, but he has some stiffness in his shoulders that could keep his bat from reaching its full potential. Again, another hitter I will have to give an early average projection for his hit and power tools before getting some more looks.

Easton McGee RHP/1B Hopkinsville, KY (Kentucky)

McGee has a repeatable delivery and a lot of overall athleticism, but he lacks any real feel for his offspeed at present. His fastball sat 89-91 in Jupiter with good reason to believe there is more in the tank. His slider showed a bit of projection, but his changeup was hard with no movement and he telegraphs the curve very conspicuously, though it did have decent shape once or twice in the outing. In the end, the offspeed development will have to be surprisingly expedient for him to have any average or better pitch to pair with the fastball.

Adam Laskey LHP Barrington, NJ (Duke)

A left-handed pitcher with a fastball running 88-91 and a plus changeup? Yes, please. Laskey threw what I thought was the best overall changeup in Jupiter, with great arm speed and deception paired with good sink. His ball was very hard to pick up early, as he hides the ball well with a slight cross step. Despite closing himself off a bit with the stride, he still keeps his balance and gets good drive directly toward the plate. If he makes it to Duke I would be very surprised.

Pedro Pages C/3B Doral, FL (Florida Atlantic)

Pages was my favorite player to watch in the tournament. He doesn’t have the perfect build you hope for in a pro prospect, with a strong but thick midsection and legs that seem too small to match the rest of his body. When he throws, he has a very long arm action, with his forearm almost helicoptering around his head and shoulder as his forearm flies around to release. And yet, his pop times are regularly at or below 2.0 second, as he compensates for the lost time with a strong arm and surprisingly quick feet for his size. In fairness, as he matures he is likely to slow down a bit and his arm will play more at a fringe-average level. He is a true field commander behind the dish and a great battery partner for his pitchers, knowing when to call a mound visit and exhibiting a lot of good body language to keep them in the game. Standing at the plate, he had some great at-bats, showing off some good baseball IQ and an obvious plan in the box. His swing produces some great flight off the bat with good carry. His body type may hide the abilities enough for him to slip in the draft, but he could be a a good enough defensive catcher with average power and an average hit tool.

Spencer Van Scoyoc LHP/OF Cedar Rapids, IA (Arizona State)

The definition of a projectable left-hander, Van Scoyoc’s thin but strong build backed up by plus baseball athleticism make for an interesting pitcher to watch. At present he throws a fastball 86-88 with some run and sink, and a curveball that flashes average or a tick better with good tilt. The changeup he throws is a poor offering, but he has a chance for plus command with a kit that will only get better as his physique fills out.

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Being the last big event of the showcase season, there will be a long break in amateur prospect coverage while we start rolling out the organizational rankings. This week I am spending time in Phoenix to watch Arizona Fall League games, though expect to see a primer article later this week or early in the next to kickstart the team reports. Feel free to sound off in the comments!