Sean Marshall Gets Paid
After the Cubs shuffled him between the bullpen and the rotation for four seasons, Sean Marshall finally found his home in the bullpen. In 80 relief appearances, Mashall allowed only 25 runs, striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings en route to a 2.28 FIP and 2.2 WAR. The Cubs see Marshall as their setup man of the future behind closer Carlos Marmol. To that effect they handed Marshall, eligible for arbitration the first time this season, a two year contract worth $4.7 million ($1.6 million in 2011 and $3.1 million in 2012).
Using the model that the first, second, and third arbitration seasons pay players 40%, 60%, and 80% of their market value respectively, this deal would be the equivalent of a two year, $9.17 million dollar contract on the free agent market. That figure would place his contract value almost exactly between the two bullpen arms most recently bought by the Oakland A’s: Grant Balfour (2 years, $8 million) and Brian Fuentes (2 years, $10 million).
Interestingly enough, two years ago both players posted similar seasons to Marshall’s 2010. Balfour was a key cog in the 2008 Rays postseason run, posting a strikeout rate above 12 per nine innings and 2.22 FIP in 58 innings. Fuentes was excellent for a Rockies team which finished well out of contention, striking out just under 12 per nine innings and recording a 2.24 FIP. Both seasons bear eerie similarities to Marshall’s breakout 2010.
Given that Balfour and Fuentes are two years removed from their excellent seasons and haven’t been nearly as good since, Marshall’s deal looks good, coming at age 27 and immediately after the excellent season. But the relatively poor performance seen from Balfour and Fuentes (2.8 WAR in the four total seasons) in the two years past tell the rather predictable tale of just how fungible relievers can be.
Sean Marshall showed excellent peripherals in 2010 and appears to be much more suited to a relief role than a starting role (even moreso than the typical starter). He should put together a solid relief career, although it’s possible that we may never see him reproduce this career year. The Cubs probably should have simply gone year-to-year and hedged their bets on a drop-off in performance or an injury. But if Jim Hendry and the Cubs value the financial security this deal presents, they probably aren’t losing out on too much surplus value by pulling the trigger on Marshall’s second year of arbitration early. The market clearly values middle relievers highly enough to the point where teams are paying seven figures for the afterglow of years like Marshall’s 2010. If a team is going to go multiple years with a reliever, better to do so with young, arbitration eligibles like Marshall than veterans like Balfour and Fuentes.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
If I’m not mistaken, this was Marshall’s 2nd arb year, and the deal bought out his 2nd and 3rd arb years. He was paid $950,000 in 2010. He also increased his K’s in the pen by increasing his use of the curve, throwing it 41% of the time. His curve was one of the best in ML last year, at 8.4 runs above avg. Since this deal is for Marshall’s last 2 years of team control, I think its a pretty good deal. $1.6M for this season after being paid $950,000 to put up more than 2 WAR is money saved IMO.
Definitely his 2nd year of arbitration. In free agent dollars, the Cubs paid him $6.7 million over 2 years. Very good contract.
I believe the title should be ‘Sean Marshall Gets Pizzaid’
“But the relatively poor performance seen from Balfour and Fuentes (2.8 WAR in the four total seasons) in the two years past tell the rather predictable tale of just how [b]fungible[/b] relievers can be.”
I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
LOL, for some reason I thought bbcode worked here. Anyway, fungible is a term usually applied to commodities like oil that are standard and interchangeable. Once you define “light sweet crude” and “one barrel”, one barrel of light sweet crude on the market is one barrel of light sweet crude, no matter where it was drilled. The statement that relievers are fungible is true in the sense that if your setup man leaves you to sign a big contract with some other team, it’s typically no great loss — there’s likely some other reliever out there you can sign that will give you an equal chance of good production for the money. It doesn’t have to do with the volatility of their stats season-to-season and the difficulty of predicting them.
Take that Jack Moore.
he used the word fine. so say i.
Awesome, Marshall definitely deserves it!
Does anyone else see that this “payday” most certainly means he gets a run at the starting rotation in spring training this year? He has the ability and he also is a LHP. There sure is the need for one of those!
I don’t see the Cubs bringing all RHP’s this season. Look for Zambrano or Wells to get moved to a team like the Yankees still before the season begins.
I’m confused. It seems like you are saying it makes sense, yet panning the deal at the same time. I am no supporter of his, but I think Hendry values not having to go to arb because he thinks it leads to bad feelings and does more damage than good.
Having said that, the entire premise of this piece can be said of almost any deal involving any player. All contracts should just be one year, to hedge for poor performance and injury. But that’s a thing of the past.
This speculation ignores one name which has already been added by the Cubs: Kerry Woods.
Kerry Woods, really?
yup, few days ago. Rumor has it *wink wink* that they are also scouting Mark Prior too! Wood and Marmol shorten the game to 7 innings vs cubs.
Sean Marshall deserved a much bigger pay raise. A lot more than what Marmol is going to get. Sean has done everything for the Cubs, start, middle reliever and even finished games. Pitched in approx. 80 games last year. How many innings did Marmol pitch in and how many walks and runs did he give up? Marmol did pitch well towards the end but his entire career has been up and down with so many walks. But this is baseball. Reward the not so good with huge contracts ie Soriano, Bradley, etc and the Marshall’s, Theriot’s, Lily’s get a smaller portion then get traded or given smaller contracts.
Admirable blog post..