Seattle Mariners Top 25 Prospects

Colt Emerson Photo: Allan Henry-Imagn Images

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Seattle Mariners. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.

Mariners Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Colt Emerson 20.4 AAA SS 2026 55
2 Ryan Sloan 19.9 A+ SP 2028 55
3 Kade Anderson 21.5 R SP 2026 50
4 Jonny Farmelo 21.3 A+ CF 2028 50
5 Lazaro Montes 21.2 AA RF 2027 50
6 Michael Arroyo 21.2 AA 2B 2027 50
7 Jurrangelo Cijntje 22.6 AA SP 2027 50
8 Felnin Celesten 20.3 A+ SS 2029 50
9 Luke Stevenson 21.4 A C 2028 45
10 Yorger Bautista 18.3 R CF 2031 40+
11 Nick Becker 19.1 A SS 2031 40+
12 Tai Peete 20.4 A+ CF 2028 40+
13 Teddy McGraw 24.2 A+ MIRP 2027 40
14 Griffin Hugus 21.9 R SP 2029 40
15 Korbyn Dickerson 22.2 A CF 2029 40
16 Robinson Ortiz 26.0 AAA SIRP 2026 35+
17 Mason Peters 22.0 R SIRP 2027 35+
18 Marcelo Perez 26.1 AA SP 2026 35+
19 Christian Little 22.5 A+ SIRP 2028 35+
20 Michael Morales 23.4 AA SP 2026 35+
21 Blas Castaño 27.3 MLB MIRP 2026 35+
22 Brock Rodden 25.6 AA 2B 2027 35+
23 Luis Suisbel 22.6 A+ 3B 2028 35+
24 Tyler Cleveland 26.3 AA SIRP 2026 35+
25 Charlie Pagliarini 25.1 A+ 2B 2028 35+
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55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2023 from John Glenn HS (OH) (SEA)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 50/55 40/50 50/50 45/50 50

The headliner of Seattle’s exceptional 2023 draft class, Emerson offers one of the best blends of tools and skills in all of the minor leagues. It starts with the bat, which projects plus. Emerson’s hands are fast and he’s able to direct the barrel to all quadrants of the zone. He sees spin early out of the hand and adjusts seamlessly off the fastball. His strike zone judgement is advanced. Even though he isn’t particularly big or projectable, he’s grown into average power quickly and probably has another half-gear left in him. The nitpick so far has been that Emerson tends to hit a lot of balls on the ground, but even there you can see progress: He’s showing an ability to turn on and drive fastballs in spurts, and he’s the kind of high-aptitude player who you can project to do so more often as he grows.

Defensively the arrow is up. Fully healthy from the fractured foot that sidelined him during the summer of 2024, Emerson looked much more spry at shortstop in 2025. His range was better, but he’d also progressed on some of the little things: footwork around the bag, getting the ball out quicker, charging more aggressively, etc. His ability to grow in real time is remarkable. More than once, I saw him either misplay something or take an imperfect angle in a game on Tuesday, and then handle the same ball perfectly three days later. It’s this as much as anything driving the defensive projection. I’ve long been skeptical that Emerson would be able to stay at short with his size and speed, and still think there’s a good chance he needs to move to third base at some point, but for now it looks like he can be average or maybe even a tick better there.

There are plenty of good prospects — including some on this list — who divide opinion among evaluators, data darlings who appeal to analysts but not scouts, or scout favorites who leave the wonks cold. Emerson is not that kind of player. He lights up just about everything a model tends to like. Quality performance while being young for the level? Check. Demonstrable power? Yes. Great swing decisions? You know it already. Scouts also love the way this guy plays. He busts it out of the box, his head is always in the game, and he’s constantly looking for ways to take an extra base. He has several ideally calibrated characteristics: He’s confident but not cocky, fiery and competitive but not a danger to himself.

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As a recovering creature of the Moneyball era, I’m still working through my thoughts on what it means to be “clutch,” but Emerson sure seems to have a knack for rising to the occasion in a tight spot. If you’re ever inclined to round up on a guy with intangibles or an “it” factor, he’s the player to bet on. Even if you’re not, Emerson’s ability and proximity alone warrant the top slot here. His feel to hit makes him as safe of a player as we’ll rank this year —yeah, yeah I know, nobody’s a guarantee, we’re dealing in relative terms here — and there’s star upside if he learns to pull and lift regularly, as he seems to be on the cusp of doing. He’s not an electric athlete like Bobby Witt Jr., and thus perhaps not a threat to go supernova and throw down a 10-WAR season, but he projects as a guy who can rack up 3 to 4 WAR every year for a long, long time.

2. Ryan Sloan, SP

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2024 from York HS (IL) (SEA)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Splitter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/60 50/60 40/55 94-97 / 99

Can I interest you in three plus pitches? How about from a good athlete with a traditional, workhorse build? Maybe if I told you he ran a sub-2/9 walk rate across both levels of A-ball as a 19-year-old?

Sloan was an over-slot second-round selection out of an Illinois high school in the 2024 draft and it sure looks like the Mariners nailed the pick. He’s a big, physical kid, and while there’s moderate effort to his delivery, the mechanics are simple and he repeats them well, especially for his age and build. He’ll touch 99 and sits comfortably in the 94-97 mph range with a bit of life up in the zone. Both the slider and split project plus. The former is the less consistent of the two, but it flashes 70 with hard and late two-plane depth when Sloan spins it just right. Both are swing-and-miss pitches and go a long way toward explaining how he struck out 10/9 while living in the strike zone.

Sloan throws a ton of strikes. He walked just 15 guys in 82 innings — none over a three-start cameo in High-A at the end of the year — and pounds the zone with the fastball in particular. He can hit the box with his secondaries as well, though they also generate a bunch of strikes below deck. The only real nitpick here is that Sloan locates mostly to the glove side. The way he falls off the rubber and takes his arm with him explains why, and while he’ll probably develop more feel for the arm side as he progresses, that tendency could be fairly sticky. The predictability in his locations is the most obvious nitpick in his game, and finding a way to hit other spots should be a primary developmental priority in 2026.

That shouldn’t detract much from all the good things going on here. We want to see Sloan stretched out more before we really go nuts, but this looks like a no. 2 starter, and he’s on the short list of minor leaguers who are even in the conversation for a no. 1 projection. The usual caveats apply: Pitching is volatile, throwing hard is risky, and you’d have more confidence in the long-term quality of his stuff if we’d seen him throw more than 70 pitches a start. But the upside is sky-high here, and it’s not too early to say Sloan is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

50 FV Prospects

3. Kade Anderson, SP

Drafted: 1st Round, 2025 from LSU (SEA)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 186 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/60 55/60 50/60 30/45 92-95 / 97

Anderson was a 1:1 candidate after a dominant season at LSU, but had to “settle” for the third pick and the second-highest bonus in the 2025 class. He is a spindly, 6-foot-2 lefty who’ll show you four plus pitches. His fastball sits 92-95 mph with vertical ride, and it plays up because his loose arm action hides it until the very last moment. It generated a whopping 35% miss rate in 2025. The way his fastball plays means Anderson’s command of it doesn’t have to be precise; it rides enough to evade barrels in the strike zone. His slider, a mid-80s offering with big two-planed wipe, is often a pitch he goes to when he needs a strike, and he threw it for strikes at a 70% clip this year. His curveball and changeup usage doesn’t exceed that of his slider, even against right-handed hitters. That might change in pro ball, as Anderson’s changeup (which he sells with his whip-cracking arm speed) has enough late action to miss bats, and his curveball has lovely downward trajectory and depth that should make it a platoon neutralizer. He can also dump the curveball in the zone for strikes.

Anderson is definitely a control-over-command type; he doesn’t have great touch and feel for surgical location. He’s a power pitcher, and his stuff plays like a power pitcher’s despite the velocity. He doesn’t have ideal size like Paul Skenes, who looks like he eats 200 innings for breakfast; he’s skinnier and has just the one year of being stretched out like this, though his stuff was crisp late in the season. This is a fast-moving mid-rotation starter who has the toolkit to get just about anyone out. Whether Anderson starts in Double-A or not, he should get there quickly and a 2026 debut isn’t out of the question.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2023 from Westfield HS (VA) (SEA)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/60 35/55 70/65 40/50 50

The second of Seattle’s 2023 first round picks, Farmelo signed for a little more than $3 million out of a Virginia high school. He was a tools bet at the time, a plus athlete with big power and blazing speed. He hit the ground running from the time he reached instructs and quickly moved onto our Top 100 list. Injuries have since taken a bite out of Farmelo’s career. A torn ACL ended his 2024 season in mid-June, and then a stress fracture in his ribs put him on the shelf for most of 2025; even counting the Arizona Fall League, he’s played in fewer than 100 professional games.

Farmelo’s physicality facilitates a big power projection and a chance to get to it reliably. He has a fast bat and is already posting major league average exit velocities, with the kind of frame and twitch that suggests another grade of impact is on the way. He has a low-ball swing geared for loft, and while the bat path isn’t perfectly direct, his hands are fast enough to at least be competitive on pitches up. He’s an explosive rotator, and when he gets a pitch in his wheelhouse and turns on it, he looks every bit like a big leaguer.

Farmelo’s feel for contact isn’t great right now. In addition to the vulnerability upstairs, he’s also swinging over a lot of breaking balls. Some days he looks caught in between, and you can see why he posted a contact rate of just 65% last season. The stop and start nature of his 2025 season may have a lot to do with that, and he may well start hitting for more contact when he can just play every day, but it’s a flag regardless.

The injuries also have limited Farmelo’s chance to mature in center field, where his reads and routes remain a work in progress. He was a no-doubt 70 runner prior to the ACL tear and looked darn close to that late last summer, but he’s also a bigger guy with a couple injuries on the ledger now. On tools and athleticism, he projects as a center fielder, but there are things to monitor here. All of this makes him a volatile prospect. With that hit risk comes five-tool upside, however, and perhaps the highest ceiling in the system.

Signed: International Signing Period, 2022 from Cuba (SEA)
Age 21.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 65/70 40/60 35/30 30/40 60

If Colt Emerson is the captain of the High Floor side of the prospect continuum, Montes is a good avatar for the boom-or-bust prototype. The recipient of $2.5 million bonus in the 2022 international class, Montes was signed for his immense power. He’s a huge guy who has retained his 70 raw projection even as he’s gotten trimmer since signing. He has generated a 116 mph exit velocity, knocked balls over the batter’s eye in consecutive games in Hillsboro’s cavernous yard, and can put on a show in BP. In the words of one scout, “it looks like he’s hitting a Titleist.”

You can probably already guess where the bust risk comes from. While he’s not helpless against spin or totally bereft of plate discipline, Montes is looking to drive the ball with every swing. His contact rates, in zone and overall, are not good, at the bottom of the viability range, and he’s doing that against A-ball and Double-A arms, not big leaguers. He struck out in 30.5% of his Double-A plate appearances in 2025, and it’s hard to imagine his total being all that much lower at the highest level. There’s a chance he just didn’t hit enough to profile.

I’m not quite as high on him as the scouts who think he could be the heir to Yordan Alvarez, but there are reasons for optimism here. Montes is only just 21, and even with all those strikeouts, he was still a pretty good hitter overall at Double-A. His chase rate isn’t low exactly, but it’s low enough, particularly with two strikes, to think there’s some discernment here. Mechanically, there are things to like as well. For his size, Montes isn’t particularly long-levered. He has a big load, but he’s on time, he’s able to get his barrel to pitches up, and he can cover the inner part of the plate. His swings are also big but not reckless; his head is pretty still through contact. I don’t see a plus hitter or anything, but he could well be a 40 and that would play just fine.

He’s never going to win a Gold Glove, but the progress Montes has made defensively deserves praise. In 2023, he looked like a disaster, a surefire DH who didn’t do anything well out in right field. He’s put a ton of work in since and it shows. His ability to track a ball and make plays at the edge of his range have grown tremendously, and he’s turned his strong but wild arm into a playable tool. Just as encouragingly, he’s shown an aptitude for the little things. Imagine a sequence where a single to left produces an overthrow to the plate and the hitter winds up with a big lead after rounding second base: How many right fielders would even think to sneak up on that runner for a possible back pick? Montes did. It’s not a play that’s likely to recreate itself much, but the hustle and foresight speaks to why I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt out there.

Ultimately though, Montes will go as far as his bat takes him. The range of outcomes is pretty wide here, from a Quad-A bat to 40-homer star. You can justify a lot of projections, and while I’m higher on him than Eric has been over the last couple of years, I don’t think Eric’s forecasts were at all unreasonable. I just see so much power, and enough ability to get to it so far, to keep the glass half full. With 70 pop, Montes has passed the crucial threshold where he can mishit balls the other way and still put them in the seats. For me, he projects as a flawed but potent middle-of-the-order bat.

Signed: International Signing Period, 2022 from Colombia (SEA)
Age 21.2 Height 5′ 8″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/55 40/50 50/45 30/40 45

Signed for $1.37 million in 2022, Arroyo is the best Colombian prospect in the game. The compactly built second baseman is a well-rounded player with good feel to hit, a sound approach, surprising pop for his size, and a chance to stick at the keystone.

Arroyo’s setup and swing are unorthodox, but so far have been effective. He starts in a closed stance and dives out toward the plate. His hands load high and then he immediately drops the barrel head in a scooping bat path. On last year’s list, Eric comped his swing to Nick Castellanos, and that’s a good visual. His bat speed is just average or a tick above, but Arroyo’s short levers and pitch recognition skills help him reach pitches throughout the zone, and for a guy who’s closed off, his ability to get to pull-side lift has always stood out. It’s possible that elite velocity will limit his ability to cover the upper part of the zone, and I’m also worried about pitches inside, and not just his ability to hit them: Arroyo’s hands are in a vulnerable position when he strides, and he tends to get drilled a fair amount there. It would not shock me if there’s a broken hamate or wrist in his future.

For all those risks, there’s a lot to like. Statistically, there aren’t many red flags. Arroyo’s contact rate is good, he doesn’t chase much, and his swing rate on balls in the heart of the plate is 91% — one of the highest in the system. Visually, his approach is mature as well. He takes his walks, drives what he can, and tends to be a pesky out.

Defensively, Arroyo is a work in progress. He has the range to cover second, but neither his hands nor his arm are particularly reliable. His stroke is inconsistent, and while I don’t want to use the “y” word here, there are spells when even routine throws can sail on him; a switch to left field is in play if this doesn’t get better. Regardless of where he ends up, he’ll need to hit to profile. And despite some of the concerns I have with his swing, the projection here is for Arroyo to do so, and to be a cog in the lineup and a regular threat to go deep.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2024 from Mississippi State (SEA)
Age 22.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr S / S FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/60 50/60 30/40 94-97 / 99

Cijntje is a switch-pitcher with a gorgeous delivery from both sides of the rubber. Naturally left-handed, the Curaçao native has been switch-pitching since he was a kid, and is now far better as a righty. He was also a solid prospect as a hitter, and was drafted by Milwaukee as a shortstop out of high school. It’s a stunning collection of abilities, and Cijntje is in the running for the best athlete, with the best body control, in all of the minor leagues.

Right-handed Cijntje is a Dude. He’s touched 99 mph and sits in the mid-to-high 90s with bat-missing carry. The slider and change both flash plus, and when he’s in a groove, he can pump strikes and move the ball around the plate. Catch him on the right day and you might put a no. 2 grade on him. But he’s inconsistent, perhaps not unexpectedly given how many reps he’s lost. His velo can dip mid-outing, and (and this is true from both sides of the rubber) he’ll lose his release point and start spraying the ball everywhere but the target. The movement on his slider and change can also vary wildly within outings. He can sometimes get frustrated to the point of exacerbating both problems. By and large, he’s outstuffing guys so far — some of the homers on his ledger were puny Everett specials, where the wall in right center is 315 feet from the plate — but there’s work ahead.

Were he a lefty only, Cijntje would be a prospect, if not an especially interesting one. He’s touched 95 from that side, but tends to work either side of 90, without bat-missing shape or sharp command. He hasn’t had nearly the same number of reps to polish his secondaries, so while there’s a slider that flashes average, it’s inconsistent. His control is also subpar presently. It’s up-down stuff now and projects a little better than that given the athleticism at play and lack of reps from that side, but there’d be a long road ahead.

The Mariners are still trying to figure out how to best develop and deploy Cijntje. They’ve had him start a game as a righty and then work out of the bullpen as a lefty a few days later. They’ve also had him start games (or innings) left-handed before switching it up for the remainder of the day (or inning). In my looks, those were scripted appearances, but he’s also switched arms to play matchups in the past.

The ideal path forward is a fascinating dilemma. How do you best develop the two arms without putting too many miles on Cijntje’s legs? Do you try to build two starters here? Do you maximize flexibility with him in a relief role? Could you feasibly use him as a starting pitcher once a week and let him eat innings with the other arm and add precious depth to the bullpen without needing a roster spot to do so? There are so many ways this can go, and this may prove to be a case where “optimal” and “most fun” are at odds. For better or (for non-Mariners fans) worse, the smart answer is probably to prioritize the dominant side, and if that slows Cijntje’s progress with the left hand to the point of it not being viable, so be it. Cijntje projects as a no. 3 starter with wiggle room on both sides, and may need more seasoning to reach it than most college pitchers in his draft orbit. It’s closer stuff if the control continues to lag and he winds up in relief.

Signed: International Signing Period, 2023 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr S / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 45/55 20/50 50/50 40/50 60

Seattle’s top signee from the 2023 international class, Celesten shook off the injury bug long enough to suit up more than 100 times combined across both A-ball levels in 2025. At times, there was understandable rust on both sides of the ball, but he also flashed the ability of an elite shortstop prospect, and has continued to play well amidst inconsistent playing time in the Dominican Winter League.

Celestin is an above-average athlete and a switch-hitter with a fast bat from both sides. It’s a power-over-hit cut — he swings hard, pulls off the plate, and has a steep path conducive to damage but also swing and miss — and he should grow into at least above-average pop. Perhaps the most impressive thing is how he’s performed almost identically as a righty and lefty— all the more notable given that there are measurable differences in how his respective swings work. His contact rates aren’t great, but they’re fine for someone his age, particularly factoring in the lost reps.

Celestin’s defensive instincts are good. He has a keen sense for when he can get in front of the ball and when he has to move a little quicker, he knows when he has to hurry a throw and when he has an extra beat, and he’s shown an adaptability to the moment. In one recent LIDOM sequence, he picked up a high chopper in front of second and a little to the first base side of the bag, took two steps to his left to tag a sliding runner, and then spun and fired a strike for the double play. That’s really good feel, especially for someone playing with and against guys many years his senior. That buoys an otherwise unremarkable defensive projection. At short, Celestin’s range is adequate but not outstanding, while his glovework and throwing accuracy should be fine in the end but remain a work in progress.

Celestin is rawer at the plate than most players on our Top 100, but the physicality, offensive tools, and defensive instincts justify a lofty projection. He’s a potential five-tool player, and while he may have a longer development timeline than most guys with his upside, the payoff could be significant. He’ll return to Everett to start the 2026 season.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2025 from North Carolina (SEA)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 35/50 30/30 45/55 45

As a power-hitting catcher with strong receiving skills, Stevenson was seen as a potential top-10 selection heading into his draft season. He slid to the 35th pick of the 2025 draft after swing-and-miss issues plagued his junior season and raised questions about the viability of his hit tool.

Stevenson is trading contact for power. There are a lot of markers in his swing — the flatter path, still head, direct stride — that tend to correlate with hitting ability, and while he’s a bit vulnerable to spin, his advanced approach limits that to some degree. But there’s some length to the path, and Stevenson has just average bat speed (in the way that scouts have traditionally used the term). That fosters a power-and-OBP-over-hit profile, but there’s enough hand-eye and bat-to-ball skill to think it all could work.

Defensively, Stevenson’s a good receiver with quiet and supple hands. His control of the running game is below average — his transfers are low and they aren’t quick, and his throws can get a little scattered — but still playable, and the kind of thing that we can project improvement on. Cal Raleigh wasn’t very good at this when he was drafted, either.

Add it all up on both sides of the ball and you can see how this might work. Stevenson isn’t a risk-free prospect and evaluators are split on his long-term upside; I’m a little higher on him than Eric. There’s a chance the bat speed gets exposed against elite stuff, but I don’t think a .230/.300/.400 line with average or better defense is out of the question at maturity. That would be a 50, and if there’s any jump in Stevenson’s throwing ability or bat-to-ball as he develops, he’ll climb into that tier on subsequent lists.

40+ FV Prospects

10. Yorger Bautista, CF

Signed: International Signing Period, 2025 from Venezuela (SEA)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/35 50/60 20/55 60/60 40/50 50

Seattle’s big splash in the 2025 international class, Bautista signed for $2.1 million and was widely viewed as one of the top talents available. He certainly stands out physically: He’s both lithe and strong for his size, twitchy, very projectable, and already bringing the kind of present power and speed you want to see when you sink a quarter of your bonus pool into one guy. His 90th-percentile exit velocity in 2025 was 105.4 mph (Josh Naylor’s was a full tick lower, for reference), which was both better than we’d have guessed and came at no cost to his plus speed.

I don’t know if he can hit. First, Bautista’s swing is complicated. He’s a late lander with a big leg kick, and he has a long, uphill path that starts with a late load and big hitch down. It’s not impossible to make that work, but your hands better be quick (check) and your timing has to be very good (Bautista’s isn’t right now). Partly because of the path, partly from the high effort level in his swing, he’s often late to the party on heaters and every swing at a breaking ball looks like he’s seeing spin for the first time. I don’t want to get too hung up on DSL numbers, but his 30% strikeout rate, 62% contact rate, and 52% whiff rate on breaking balls reflect the magnitude of the issue here.

Athletes like this deserve a long runway to figure things out. Bautista will spend 2026 on one of the complexes, and he’s young enough that even modest improvement in his spin recognition or timing would be a very good sign. He isn’t on the fast track, though, and the volatility in this profile is reflected in his placement on this list.

11. Nick Becker, SS

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2025 from Don Bosco Prep (NJ) (SEA)
Age 19.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/35 40/55 25/50 60/60 45/55 60

Meet the highest-variance stateside player in the system. Becker is a cold-weather prep bat out of New Jersey who signed for an over-slot $2.75 million as Seattle’s second-round pick in the 2025 draft. He’s a good athlete and plus runner who projects to develop above-average power while staying at shortstop, which is a starter pack for a star if there’s enough hit skill to go with it.

About that. Anything can work, but Becker’s swing misses most of the marks we normally associate with a projectable hit tool. His cut looks stiffer than you’d guess if you’d just watched him glide around the infield, his hands load low, the bat path is very steep, and he’ll have to prove he can adjust the barrel and reach pitches up in the zone. He did not look comfortable against spin in a week’s worth of Low-A at-bats following the draft. I don’t want to ding him for that exactly, but you can at least add it to the long list of things clouding his hit projection.

Athletes from states without a high caliber of local baseball are understandably rawer than their peers from baseball hotbeds. Sometimes guys like this make big, difficult-to-forecast changes when exposed to better pitching and professional instruction. And of course there’s always a chance Becker hits the ground running just as he is. Still, my instinct is that he’ll have to acclimate to pro ball. The defense and power are good enough to carry a big league profile, and he definitely has the ceiling of a regular. Were I projecting for a team, I’d put a low-conviction everyday grade on him. On our scale, as far away and risky as he is, that translates to this FV tier.

12. Tai Peete, CF

Drafted: 1st Round, 2023 from Trinity Christian HS (GA) (SEA)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 193 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/30 50/60 30/50 60/60 45/55 60

The third and final of the team’s 2023 first rounders, Peete is as athletic and talented as he is risky — and he’s quite athletic. Twitchy, fast, and strong, Peete hits the sweet spot as a short-ish levered guy with plus speed and plus impact. He’s also got a plus arm and after a speed bump in the summer of 2024, has taken pretty well to center field. It’s a star’s collection of tools and the upside is correspondingly high.

Two years on, though, Peete hasn’t reliably turned all of that talent into baseball skill or production. The scariest part here is that he doesn’t seem to track pitches well. He’ll often swing uncompetitively over spin (the 44% whiff rate on spin is perhaps the most glaring data point in his chart) or chase fastballs well out of the zone. It’s not a bat path issue, as he actually manipulates the barrel head pretty well, but he’s often either not on time, swinging at pitches well off the plate, or both. His front hip leaks early, which tends to make this issue particularly stark on pitches on the outer third, and Peete has no chance on changeups that fade off the plate low and away. Understandably, it sounds likely that he’s going to repeat High-A.

Plus-plus athletes deservedly get a lot of runway to figure things out. A 30% strikeout rate at both levels of A-ball is almost always a very bad sign, but a guy with Peete’s coordination and bat speed at least has a chance to flip a switch in a way that slower-twitch athletes do not. This is a step back from some of the more aggressive forecasts you’ve seen for Peete at this site. His ceiling hasn’t changed — you can still dream on a star — but it’s become less likely that he’ll reach it. He projects as a fourth outfielder with thump off the bench.

40 FV Prospects

13. Teddy McGraw, MIRP

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2023 from Wake Forest (SEA)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 60/60 50/55 30/40 93-95 / 97

Born in Cooperstown, McGraw shares a first and last name with Hall of Famers. He’s not that kind of prospect, but the Wake Forest alum was seen as a potential first-round pick before injuries slid him to the third round of the 2023 draft. Injuries are regrettably a big part of the profile here: He’s had Tommy John twice and missed the start of the 2025 season with a flexor strain. When healthy, the stuff is plenty good. McGraw can dial his two-seamer up to 97, and the pitch has above-average tail out of a low-three-quarters slot. He has an above-average change with similar movement, but it’s the slider that projects to really miss bats, a hard sweeper that touches 90 and already grades as a plus pitch.

The command/control piece is a little more nuanced than usual here. McGraw isn’t a great athlete and when he’s out of synch (or simply catches his front cleat on the dirt and loses balance), he can miss pretty badly. But he also has spurts where he pounds the glove well, and he shows nascent feel for hitting both sides of the plate. There’s thus some push and pull in the profile. With all his missed time, and the quality of his secondaries, you can dream on McGraw as a five-and-dive starter, or a hybrid arm at the very least. The injury history is pretty scary, though, and Seattle might feel motivated to push him quickly in a short-stint role, where he’d have late-inning upside.

14. Griffin Hugus, SP

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2025 from Miami (SEA)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr B / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 55/60 45/50 30/45 35/45 91-93 / 95

Hugus transitioned from the Cincinnati Bearcats bullpen to the Miami Hurricanes rotation and blossomed, posting career-best numbers across the board amidst a huge innings jump. That performance, along with above-average athleticism and interesting pitch data, spurred the Mariners to select him in the third round of the 2025 draft; he signed for an under-slot $640,000.

While he can dial his fastball up to 95, it tends to sit 91-93 and instead misses bats and barrels due to the pitch’s carry. Hugus gets down the mound well, and he’s able to add to that deception with above-average extension and a pretty low release height for his high slot. He’s got good feel for spinning two breaking balls, and the slider projects above average. Developing a more functional changeup is among his biggest developmental priorities in 2026.

Hugus’ control is ahead of his command, and the higher-effort nature of his delivery suggests that might always be the case. Still, there’s starter upside here. The Mariners have been impressed with his aptitude for picking up new concepts and pitch ideas quickly, which bodes well for a late-bloomer with athleticism and a pitch mix that seems likely to expand (he threw his fastball and slider more than 90% of the time at Miami). It’s worth exhausting Hugus as a starter, as the prospect of pro coaching in a strong development system gives him a shot to exceed expectations and work in some kind of length role. He’s one whom sources have convinced me to push higher than my additional assessment. Many pro departments ask their scouts to rank relief risk on a scale of one (surefire starter) to 10 (clearly a reliever); I still lean seven in the long run, but Hugus, and my assessment of his chances to start, grew on me throughout the evaluation process.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2025 from Indiana (SEA)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/30 50/55 30/45 60/60 45/55 40

After barely playing at Louisville for two years, Dickerson transferred to Indiana, where he became a middle-of-the-order threat and parlayed a strong junior season into a third-round selection. He’s a plus athlete and runner, and his college exit velocities suggest at least above-average raw power as well. More on that in a minute.

Dickerson’s feel to hit will be tested in pro ball. His hip leaks early and his swing path leaves him vulnerable both up and on the outer half of the dish. Somewhat concerningly, just about all of his damage as a Hoosier came on hanging breaking balls or slow and misplaced heaters. Guys who can locate soft stuff low and away were able to get him fishing pretty reliably, and it’s worth noting that the competition he faced in the Big Ten was not particularly robust. If the hit tool proves shaky, as seems very possible, there will be a ton of pressure on him to do damage. Here again, mysteries abound, as the college game is in the midst of a runaway power boom. Whether from the balls, the bats, or some combination of the two, it’s hard to take bat speed and exit velos at face value. On paper, Dickerson could have plus raw, but I don’t feel comfortable projecting it until I see him do it with wood.

Defensively, Dickerson projects to play an above-average center field. It isn’t easy to assess routes and reads off the bat over video, but he looks competent in the limited material available, and the closing speed and knack for making plays at full stretch are both evident. With his wheels, he looks like a lock to stay up the middle. Add it all together and you have a center fielder with at least a puncher’s chance of developing into a power-over-hit regular. In my view, this is the kind of player that big league clubs should like more than, say, fantasy players. Good hitters are scarce and there’s a chance Dickerson grows into a productive one; it’s worth a roll of the dice near the top of the draft. But the hit tool looks shaky and for now I feel better projecting him in a platoon role.

35+ FV Prospects

16. Robinson Ortiz, SIRP

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (LAD)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/55 50/50 30/40 92-94 / 97

Facing a 40-man roster crunch, the Dodgers shipped Ortiz to Seattle in exchange for Tyler Gough. The southpaw reached Triple-A last season and is poised to debut at some time in 2026. He’s an uncomfortable at-bat for lefties. Ortiz’s tendency to miss up and arm side keeps hitters honest and has an effectively wild bent to it, particularly given his aptitude for front-dooring a sweeping slider over the plate. He’s mostly a fastball-breaking ball guy, but he has an average change that should help him limit platoon issues. He’s on the optionable reliever/second lefty out of the ‘pen line.

17. Mason Peters, SIRP

Drafted: 4th Round, 2025 from Dallas Baptist (SEA)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/50 50/55 30/40 35/45 92-94 / 96

Peters was selected in the fourth round out of Dallas Baptist in the 2025 draft. He hasn’t thrown many high-level innings — just 42.1 at DBU and a handful more on the Cape — but he’s pretty advanced despite that lack of experience. He’s around the plate with his four-pitch mix, and his curve in particular reliably has a sharp, 1-7 shape. Peters isn’t especially athletic or projectable, and so while I think his command will tick up with reps, this might be a case where the stuff is what it is. It makes sense to develop him as a starter — he made a handful of starts for the Patriots down the stretch — and he could be a no. 5 if the change exceeds this forecast, but he projects as a reliable middle reliever.

18. Marcelo Perez, SP

Drafted: 11th Round, 2022 from TCU (SEA)
Age 26.1 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
40/40 50/55 30/40 45/50 45/55 91-94 / 95

Of Seattle’s brigade of strike-throwing length guys who project as up-down depth, Perez is the one who makes the most sense to try in shorter stints. His generic fastball isn’t going to work multiple times through an order, he doesn’t have much of a change, and while the slider flashes above-average, its long, two-plane shape could really use another gear. Perez has the command to work both sides of the plate, so there’s a foundation here for a functional, if lower-upside, reliever if he can add a little more oomph on the ball in relief. As is, as a starter he struck out fewer than five per nine across 56.1 Double-A innings, upper-level depth kind of numbers.

19. Christian Little, SIRP

Drafted: 11th Round, 2004 from LSU (SEA)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 40/45 40/55 40/50 30/40 92-96 / 98

Little arrived and pitched at Vanderbilt when he was just 17 and was part of the Commodores rotation with Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker during his freshman year. He later transferred to LSU, where he was teammates with Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews on the Tigers’ 2023 College World Series-winning team. Along the way, he lost his feel for the zone somewhat and ended his college career in relief.

Picked in the 11th round of the 2024 draft, Little is starting again in Seattle’s system, where he’s throwing more strikes, though not so many to think he’ll stay in the rotation long-term. Instead, he could be a fastball-reliant reliever. He runs the heater up to 98 and, with nearly 20 inches of vertical break, tends to miss plenty of bats with it. He’s good at spotting the fastball up but otherwise has fringy control and command. The arsenal is deep but without much present heft. He’ll flash an average change and occasionally spin a very good curve, but he’s not consistent with either, and the slider is below average. It’s sort of a strange mix of strengths, but you can squint and see a pretty good fastball-power curve mix: Little’s raw spin grades are promising and the curve isn’t soft by any means, even in longer outings. The imprecision and lack of a present power breaking ball limits my conviction in the upside here. I’m hedging a little with my optionable-reliever grade; there’s upside beyond that if Little finds a consistent breaking ball.

20. Michael Morales, SP

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2021 from East Pennsboro HS (PA) (SEA)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
35/40 50/50 50/50 45/50 45/45 50/60 91-93 / 95

Morales has long projected as a depth starter and that forecast hasn’t changed this year. He’s built like a starter and has a textbook, flowing delivery with the kind of body control that supports the lofty command projection he carries here. He repeats his motion very well, to the point where it’s almost fair to wonder if part of his problem missing bats and barrels stems from how easy it is to time him up. Whether it’s deception, velocity, another pitch, or a shape tweak, Morales will need to come up with something to miss a bat because he doesn’t throw all that hard, lacks an out pitch, and isn’t a big groundball guy. He has time and the physical foundation to do so, and has a no. 5 ceiling as a strike-thrower who can eat innings, but he’s tracking like more of a no. 6/7 type right now.

21. Blas Castaño, MIRP

Signed: International Signing Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 27.3 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 162 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 55/55 50/50 40/45 92-94 / 95

Castaño is a fun watch. He’s a small, lower-slot guy who generates big horizontal movement on all four of his offerings, and his ability to run his stuff on and off the plate helps him limit damage on contact. He’s got a big personality out there, which works for and against him: outward competitiveness is great, emotionally-charged ABS-challenges less so. Castaño’s ability to generate grounders is good but not special enough to work as a full-time starter, given his lack of a bat-missing secondary. He briefly debuted in 2025 and projects as a no. 6/swing type.

22. Brock Rodden, 2B

Drafted: 5th Round, 2023 from Wichita State (SEA)
Age 25.6 Height 5′ 7″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 45/45 40/45 60/60 45/55 45

Rodden’s a little second baseman with sneaky pop and a good glove. An oblique strain and broken hamate limited him to 37 Double-A games last season, but he posted a 139 wRC+ in that time and hit for power in a park that tends to suppress it pretty significantly. A small guy with a big swing, Rodden has traded contact for power, and both his power grades and swing and miss rates are out of step with his physical appearance. For now, the trade is working, but he may need to give a little back to keep the hit tool viable against better competition.

Defensively, Rodden is solid-average at second base and has the range for short. His arm is light, though, and the effort required of him to get the ball to first base limits his ability to get outs on balls he can reach. I suspect he’ll start to get outfield reps soon to enhance his positional versatility. On both sides he plays with a competitive edge that I’m generally inclined to round up on; the dreaded “scrappy” label is justified here. Rodden projects as an up-down utility infielder who can fake it at short, though there’s a chance he strikes out too much to be more than upper-level depth.

23. Luis Suisbel, 3B

Signed: International Signing Period, 2019 from Venezuela (SEA)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 35/50 30/30 35/40 55

Suisbel’s slow but steady progression through Seattle’s system hit a snag in High-A in 2025. He hit just .211/.308/.412 in a very power-friendly park and whiffed more than 25% of the time. A switch-hitter, Suisbel’s feel for contact is just fair. He swings often and chases too much. He has a steep swing path and just okay bat speed — better from the left side than the right — and is only able to really drive pitches in the lower part of the zone.

Defensively, Suisbel has always looked fringy at third. He was clearly playing through something painful in my eval last spring, but even trying to adjust for that, he has step-and-a-dive range with adequate hands and instincts. He can play there, but I’m skeptical he’ll get to average.

The one thing that could change the equation here is if Suisbel drops the right-handed swing. Statistically and visually he’s superior as a lefty — he looks stiff and off balance as a righty — and perhaps a full boat of reps from that side would unlock some of the missing bat-to-ball skill that’s dampening his profile at the moment. Right now, he looks like a corner bench bat with enough impact and defensive utility to stick on a roster, but you can squint and see a path to more. For what it’s worth, Eric has historically liked him more than I do, and his value here is a hedge that bridges the gap in our projections.

24. Tyler Cleveland, SIRP

Drafted: 14th Round, 2022 from Central Arkansas (SEA)
Age 26.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/40 40/45 45/45 40/45 86-88 / 89

Cleveland is a submariner with a funky delivery. He starts on the first base side of the rubber and lands with his back foot nearly in the grass toward the third base dugout. His release is very low and at an angle hitters basically never see. He’s also using a four-seamer instead of a two-seamer, giving him one further oddity with which to separate himself. It’s plus-plus deception and he was impossible to lift (zero homers in 50-plus innings), but the stuff is pretty soft even for a guy like this. He’s still miles more interesting now than he was as a generic sidearm starter two years ago. Teams like to give hitters a lot of different looks out of the bullpen, and between that and Cleveland’s ability to keep the ball on the ground, he’s probably going to get a shot to see if this all works against elite hitters.

Drafted: 19th Round, 2023 from Fairfield (SEA)
Age 25.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/30 60/60 35/50 45/45 35/40 55

Seattle’s 19th-rounder back in 2023, Pagliarini offers plus raw power in a mid-size package. On paper, he’s a versatile defender who can play up the middle, and he has a history of getting to damage (38 homers in just over 1,000 professional at-bats). That’s papering over a lot of cracks, though, as the power comes with a lot of swing and miss. While he doesn’t have a slow bat, the Connecticut native has a long path and has trouble adjusting off the fastball; his miss rate on spin was over 40% in 2025. Meanwhile, on defense Pagliarini started games at first, second, and in left last year, but he’s below average at all of them. As an old-for-the-level 24-year-old who just hit .224 in High-A, the bust risk is high here. The power is intriguing, though, and it’s worth staying patient with a cold-weather guy. Maybe he’ll have Ryan Schimpf’s peak.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Depth Arms With a Dash of Upside
Po-Chun Lin, RHP
Chia-Shi Shen, RHP
Charlie Beilenson, RHP
Peyton Alford, LHP
Jimmy Joyce, RHP

Lin is a wild card. Signed out of Taiwan for $460,000 in the 2025 international period, he’s healthy now after not pitching in games after signing. There’s some push and pull everywhere in his profile. He’s touched the mid-90s but sits much lower. He’s a good athlete with body control but also a violent delivery. He was once a two-way player and now has two changeups. There’s just less known about him than pretty much anyone else on this list, to the point where I didn’t feel comfortable giving him a full profile. Signed out of a Taiwanese semi-pro league, Shen has great body control and a little deception from how long he holds on to the ball. He has a nice changeup, but the stuff is otherwise fringy. Beilenson’s blend of 70 control, average stuff, and below-average command is an unusual, dinger-prone mix. He could really use another tick or two, as his low-to-mid-90s fastball plays below the number. I’m skeptical Alford’s fastball will continue missing bats like it has against mid-minors competition, but he’s left-handed and has two above-average breaking balls, so he could find his way into the mix eventually anyway. Joyce once looked like a plausible backend starter prospect. He’s sputtered in the upper minors and is out until at least July with the shoulder injury that sidelined him last spring.

DSL Guys
Leandro Romero, SS
Elias Perez, OF
Manuel Almeida, C
Kendry Martínez, IF

Romero signed for $1 million in the 2024 international class. He’s an uber-projectable shortstop who hit much better during his second spin through the DSL, but I don’t love his swing. He’s the most interesting position player in the Others of Note section. Perez got $600,000 in the 2025 class and played center when Yorger Bautista wasn’t out there. He’ll either need to cut down on his swing length or get a lot stronger, but he has a plan and can hit a little bit. I’m concerned he may mature early physically. Almeida is a catcher with pop but a poor glove presently, and despite a good year overall, his lack of contact was concerning given the level. Martínez signed for $2.5 million prior to the 2025 season, but his first pro campaign was a disaster.

Undersized Older Signees Out of Mexico
Juan Cazarez, RHP
Francisco Pazos, RHP
Angel Chicuate, RHP
Maximo Rodriguez, RHP

Cazarez runs his heater into the mid-90s. He has a nice delivery and can spin it a bit, but he’s a stiffer athlete. He isn’t missing a ton of bats in a length role, but he might have the highest relief ceiling in this group. The square-bodied Pazos touches 95 and has some feel to throw strikes and spin the ball. Models seem to like him more than scouts. Chicuate is small and barely threw last year, but he touched 96 with interesting pitch data. Rodriguez, now 20, was signed out of the Mexican League, where he threw a handful of innings as an 18-year-old. Befitting a guy who was teammates with more than a dozen former big leaguers, he’s polished for his age. He’s a deceptive sinker-slider guy who generates huge tail and sink on his two-seamer, and pairs it with a pretty good breaking ball. He sits either side of 90 and isn’t physically projectable, but the story is good enough to flag, and there are plenty of guys who have turned worse ingredients into up-down careers.

Outfielders, Mostly From the Upper Levels
Rhylan Thomas, OF
Spencer Packard, LF
Victor Labrada, LF
Jared Sundstrom, OF
Carlos Jimenez, CF

Thomas debuted in 2025. He’s a spray hitter with lovely feel for contact and the strike zone, but I’d be rounding up to get him to 30 power and that’s a killer. I’m curious to see if he could hit .400 in Korea. Packard has a good approach, and a short swing helps him put seemingly everything in play. The contact isn’t very firm, though, and he’s below average in a corner. I’m skeptical he’ll make it work in the long run, but perhaps he can hit .275 for a stretch and give the big league club a complementary line-mover amidst all the power bats. Another Triple-A tweener, Labrada can hit a little, but he has a bunch of 40s everywhere else on the card. Sundstrom is a good athlete with tweener tools and an aggressive approach that caught up with him in Double-A. A Low-A repeater, Jimenez is a good athlete with average power and above-average speed but a 30 bat.

Walking in Reliever Wonderland
Grant Knipp, RHP
Michael Hobbs, RHP
Brock Moore, RHP
Stefan Raeth, RHP
Elijah Dale, RHP

Emphasis on the “walking.” Knipp was a two-way player at Campbell. He only pitched in four games there, but he touched 100 mph at the 2024 Combine. He had TJ just before the 2025 season; we’ll see what it looks like in 2026. Hobbs spins a plus curve and has an interesting mix of stuff besides. The effort in his delivery is such that I wince in sympathy on every pitch; we need not call the Hardy boys to figure out why he walks people. Moore touches triple digits and his slider flashes plus, but he’s a stiff athlete with a big head whack and bigger control problems. Raeth is trying to become the latest Washington Husky to play for the Mariners. He’s a spin-to-win righty who leans on his sweeper. He found a little extra gas in 2024, which breathed life into a guy who looked like an org arm earlier in his career. Dale’s feel to spin a hard sweeper with otherwise 30-grade velocity is an outlier trait; maybe it can be molded into something useful.

Backstop Backstops
Grant Jay, C
Josh Caron, C

Jay has good hands, a strong arm, and looks like a heads-up defender behind the dish. His bat is scary, though. He’s got power but also a bottom-hand dominant swing with a steep path and a ton of swing and miss against fringy competition. He could be a backup. Caron has the tools to be a bat-first catcher, but his aggressive approach was annihilated by A-ball arms.

System Overview

This is the most stratified system in the game. As Eric wrote last year, most farms this thin are among the worst in baseball, but Seattle’s isn’t just good, it’s great. Teams covet bats above all else these days, and the Mariners has five in the 50 FV tier or better, even after trading Harry Ford and graduating Cole Young. They have one low-variance 55 in Colt Emerson, with several possible stars lurking behind him. If they get two two-plus-win regulars out of that group, it’ll be a big shot in the arm for the big league club. If even half the 50s meet their projection, they’ll likely be annual pennant contenders.

Stars and scrubs is a risky way to build a farm system, and we generally favor a more diffuse spending approach, particularly in Latin America. The Mariners are the league’s best counterpoint to that philosophy. Even with a whiff here and there (Dawel Joseph signed for $3 million and may never escape the complex), Seattle’s success rate on big-dollar signees is very high. The scouting and dev system deserves a ton of credit for targeting elite and malleable talent, and has more than earned the benefit of the doubt with respect to how it operates. When you hit like this on your big swings, there’s no reason to dial things back.

Strangely for a club that scouts and develops so well, there are a lot of org guys filling space on the farm. For a player dev group that has succeeded in several different ways with various pitchers — think George Kirby’s velo spike, Bryce Miller’s split, Logan Gilbert’s evolving pitch mix and approach, stretching out Logan Evans, finding a lower slot for Tyler Cleveland, etc. — there’s a cookie-cutter feel to the system’s depth pieces. So many arms turn into spin-to-win sweeper monsters, oftentimes with lower slots on their breakers than the heat in a way that’s never going to fool quality hitters. Seattle has also punted on a couple of opportunities to collect depth on the position player side. The Mariners only have one DSL team, and most of the ACL lineup was hilariously old and tool-less for the level. Up and down the system, there are lots of players without projectable tools, many of whom have stuck around longer than they would have for other teams. This isn’t a criticism, just an observation and perhaps an inevitability with all the over-slot signees Seattle has prioritized. The shape of the system may be unusual, but it’s plenty functional.





Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

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jdbolickMember since 2024
48 minutes ago

As fun as it would be for Cijntje to switch pitch in the major leagues, I think it’s time for the Mariners to stop using him as a left-handed pitcher. It reminds me of switch hitters who were so much worse at one side that facing the same side still produced better results.

I just don’t see a scenario where LHP Cijntje provides anything but entertainment value, as the RHP change up is plenty good enough to be effective against LHBs if he can command it more consistently.