Second Half Stories to Follow
Tonight’s games officially mark the beginning of the second half of the 2011 baseball season. While the first half provided fans with some great stories — such as Derek Jeter’s quest for 3,000 hits, Jose Bautista hitting like Barry Bonds or the Pittsburgh Pirates march back to respectability — the second half of the season should provide closure to certain stories, while extending the narratives of others. With the second half of the season starting tonight, here — in no particular order — are some of the major stories to follow.
What the hell is going to happen to the Los Angeles Dodgers?
Fans of both the Dodgers and Major League baseball can only hope there is some sort of progress made here before the season ends. It’s become pretty clear that Frank McCourt has no desire to go quietly into the night, even though his recent attempts to prolong MLB from completely ousting him seem futile at best. Problem is, McCourt is going to do whatever he can to fight MLB for as long as he can, so fans may not see a resolution to the Dodgers’ ownership problems by the time the season ends. As the trade deadline approaches, it’s unclear how the Dodgers are going to proceed with so much uncertainty surrounding the franchise. Andre Ethier is already reportedly fed up with the team’s financial issues, and free agents could shy away from the team if this issue isn’t solved by the time the off-season rolls around.
What will Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols get on the free agent market and where will they go?
Due to his strong play during the first half, Jose Reyes’ contract has been a major topic of conversation recently. Lost in the shuffle — perhaps due to his injury — is Albert Pujols, who is also set to be a free agent once the season ends. While Reyes has grabbed the spotlight more recently, Pujols has been the best player in baseball over the last decade and should be in line for a major payday once the season ends. These two players will likely be the premier free agents on the market this Summer, and it will be interesting to see the rumors start to fly as the season reaches it’s end.
Who is the real AL MVP?
Through the first half of the 2011 season, Jose Bautista was easily the best player in baseball. Eric Seidman told you as much earlier today when he outlined Bautista’s dominance over his competition. For some reason, though, Adrian Gonzalez continues to gain supporters despite being worth nearly two wins less than Bautista. This issue will be another test of old-school vs new-school statistics, as Gonzalez’s case seems to be built around his team’s performance, RBI and other fun traditional stats that he has little control over. Let me make one thing clear though — the only way I’m voting for Gonzalez is if he ends up leading the league in OPSBIs.
Other stories that may just interest me.
– How will the borderline contenders — Cleveland, LA Angels, Pittsburgh and Arizona — proceed going forward? Who will go for broke at the trade deadline? Who will re-evaluate?
– Will the Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds finally live up to their lofty pre-season expectations?
– How many wins will Jose Bautista actually be worth once the season ends? We could be in for a ridiculous number.
– How many 30-30 players will we have at the end of the year? Right now, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, B.J. Upton and Curtis Granderson are all on pace to reach the mark; while Ian Kinsler, Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez and Chris Young all have an outside shot at reaching the milestone with strong second halves.
– Will a starting pitcher post a sub-2 ERA? Jair Jurrjens and Jered Weaver are the only two pitchers who were able to carry a sub-2 ERA through the first half of the season.
Those are some of the stories worth following as the second half of the season begins tonight. This list is far from comprehensive, so let’s add to it. What will you be watching for in the second half of the season?
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Who is the NL Rookie of the Year? Espinosa, Kimbrel, or Gee?
Gotta be Kimbrel. Unlike Espinosa, Freeman, and Gee, Kimbrel has already established himself as one of the elite players at his position. He is leading the majors in saves and has video game-like strikeout numbers.
should be espinosa.
he is far more valuable this year than kimbrel
Kimbrel is 4th. 1) Espinosa. 2) Ramos 3) GEE based on WAR
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=2
Am I missing something? Kimbrel is 2nd in WAR.
Gee is at 1 WAR, Ramos is at 1.8, and Kimbrel is at 2. Espinosa is destroying them all at 3.8.
LOL. Espinosa hasn’t established himself as one of the elite at his position?
Seriously, let’s not loose sight … Espinosa is having a very fine season, even if you forget the fact that he’s a rookie.
But Kimbrel is absolutely dominating. His second half must finish the story, but in this case you have to throw WAR comparisons out the window… Kimbrel is obliterating his relief pitching peers of late, and if he somehow continues the trend, he deserves it hands down. I hate giving the nod to relief pitchers over a position player or starting pitcher for any talent/performance measurement, but there’s something to be said about awarding dominance over what people view as genuine value (WAR) in this case. He certainly doesn’t have anywhere close to as tough a job as any middle infielder but who cares… I agree with Evans, there’s still a huge difference between an elite performer and a very good performer, no matter how you look at it.
Sure, there is something to be said for dominance, but there’s also something to be said for positional scarcity and volume of work. At the end of the year, Kimbrel will have dominated 70 innings of pitching in a similar number of games. On the other hand, Espinosa will have been very, very good for around twice as many games while playing the field for 9 innings and coming to bat 4 times. The overall value of the latter is far greater than the former in my mind, and I’d award the ROY in kind.
Espinosa easily
If we’re talking who will, not who should, and if you assume it’s one of those three:
If Kimbrel gets to 50 saves, he will.
If Kimbrel gets to 45 and Espinosa gets 30 HR and 100 RBI, it will be Espinosa. Otherwise, Kimbrel gets it.
If Kimbrel gets 40 saves, Espinosa probably gets there with his current pace (28 HR, 92 RBI), unless Gee wins 15+, when it might be Gee.
If Kimbrel somehow finishes with under 40 saves, unless again Gee wins 15+, it would probably be Espinosa even with something like 25 HR, 80 RBI.
Freeman, meanwhile, is a wild card: as a first baseman, he will need probably 3-5 more HR and 10-15 more RBI than Espinosa to pass him.
Also, Evan: You can certainly argue that Espinosa is an elite 2nd baseman, if you think Kimbrel is already an elite closer. In such a comparison, the fragility/inconsistency of relievers probably cancels out how early it is in Espinosa’s career.
If Kimbrel gets it then the system is broken!!!!!
Freddie Freeman should not even be in the discussion. The great white hope has produced less than 1 WAR (0.9), and ranks behind several players who haven’t played all year (Cory Lebuke 1.4, Allen Craig 1.4).
I just don’t understand how him being on a good team and hitting some homeruns justifies any discussion. He’s simply overrated.
One final point: his fielding has been worth -6.4 runs.
Fielding? Where is the info from, and please don’t say UZR, which not only needs more than 1/2 a season of sample, but also is horrible at judging 1B d. Watching him daily, he’s a solid but not special fielder.
kimbrel and venters are going to tie
Jonny’s not a rookie.
i thought 100 IP was the cutoff? he only had 83 before this year
ah nvm, he got RoY votes last year, so i guess he is out…
Mildly Irrational Phillies Partisan over here, and I’d give it to Kimbrel without hesitation. Yes, Espinosa is good, but I ain’t ascairt of him.
Hell, I’m more ascairt of Weeks, or Phillips, or even Johnson than I am of Espinosa.
Folksy fan-psychology aside, I think there’s something to be said for looking at the impact (WPA if you prefer?) of Kimbrel vs Espinosa minus the automatic +2.5 that Espinosa’s WAR gets him. Kimbrel might be the best closer in the NL right now. I’m mildly shocked that he’s still a rookie, actually; it must of been one hell of a callup last year.
On the other hand, hell, give it to Jonny Venters. He’s pretty good too.
“Hell, I’m more ascairt of Weeks, or Phillips, or even Johnson than I am of Espinosa.”
That’s because Weeks and Phillips are really f-ing good. That doesn’t mean that Espinosa’s not the ROY, however.
It’s too bad that fangraphs doesn’t have a stat for the ascart-of factor. I know that Jim Rice would have the highest career mark.
While Gee has convinced me that he is a real major leaguer, I think he will continue to regress to the point where by September he will no longer be in the discussion.
I just ran the numbers. AGon is beating Bautista in OPSBIs, 78.006 to 66.170.
Ha that OPSBI’s link was absolutely ridiculous. I can’t beleive some GM’s are that stupid.
You, like most of the country, must not have paid much attention to the Reds of the late 90’s and early to mid aughts. The guy signed Eric Milton. To pitch in GABP.
I owe a big apology to all of the fans on baseball blogs whom I have insulted in the past. They are no worse than Jim Bowden.
Mariners!!
Brendan Ryan’s villainous mustache. How villainous will it get? Supervillainous?? Evil Supervillainous??? Rollie Fingers????
I’m also wondering when ESPN goes into full Adrian Gonzalez for MVP campaign mode (it’s still pretty quiet right now but that should change come August), much like the ’08 Pedroia campaign. And whether Fenway park effects will be considered or brushed over like in ’08
Forget Batista, will Gonzalez even end up being the most valuable player on that team? (and will his UZR #’s continue to be way over his career average?) The guy is a great player but he’s got a career UZR/150 of 1.6 prior to this year (he’s on pace for 11-12) and all you hear is how he’s not only a bat but an “elite” defender with 2 gold gloves.
I also find it odd that Granderson, who has pretty much the same WAR (with a UZR that is not way out of his career norm like Gonzalez) gets no mention… Batista is the obvious choice, but if you actually regress the defensive #’s to account for UZR variation it’s probably a tossup right now for 2nd with Granderson, Ellbury, Gonzalez and maybe Pedroia.
I think this comment simply speaks volumes to how strong the Red Sox really are this year. Now if only they can get their rotation fully settled…
I can’t (and wont) argue with most of what you said, but I don’t think park effects should be accounted for, or any stats should be regressed when talking about something like that. It’s not Most Potentially Valuable Player, it’s about how valuable they actually were regardless of setting, or luck, or anything else.
This shows a pretty big misunderstanding of park effects. You have to adjust players’ stats for their park to measure their actual value. A run scored in Fenway is not worth the same as a run scored in Safeco. This isn’t trying to get some fake value – it’s harder to score in a pitchers park, and hitting there simply means more.
Gonzalez excels in statistics for simple-minded people; the skill in Granderson’s or even Pedroia’s game is a bit more subtle.
How was this written with no mention of Ryan Vogelsong?
Regression is a helluva drug.
I’ll answer a couple of the last ones, if only to console you that yes, some of us care about those too.
Sub-2.00 ERA: I’m comfortable saying that there is zero chance of this. I know we’re in a new era of pitching, but even Zack Greinke in that ridiculous 2009 season ended at 2.16.
Bautista: I bet he gets up to 10, but probably not much beyond that. For him I guess anything’s possible, and it would be awesome if this goes to 11, but I don’t think he gets there.
One louder – the Nigel Tufnel Award
The18 players in MLB history who have amassed 11+ WAR in a single season:
1 Honus Wagner
2 Ty Cobb (4)
3 Tris Speaker
4 Eddie Collins
5 Babe Ruth (8)
6 Rogers Hornsby (3)
7 Lou Gehrig
8 Ted Williams (3)
9 Stan Musial
10 Mickey Mantle (3)
11 Willie Mays
12 Carl Yastrzemski
13 Joe Morgan
14 Robin Yount
15 Cal Ripken
16 Alex Rodriguez
17 Sammy Sosa
18 Barry Bonds (3)
That’s exactly what I was thinking. I think the reasonable range of expectations for Bautista’s WAR is something between the high 9s and the low 11s. I have a hard time seeing how he’s going to maintain quite this pace offensively; his strikeout and power numbers seem destined to regress at least a little, and his current BABIP is pretty implausible considering his career (.275), last year (.233), and the league (down several points this year).
Now, I’d be overjoyed to see him continue to post his current video-game numbers for the rest of the season and end up at 12 WAR. But it seems improbable.
Yep, some incredible seasons have not reached 10 WAR. For example, George Brett hit .390 in 1980 and struck out <5% of the time, along with respectable power and good D. Baseball is hard.
George Brett also played in like 115 games or something that year.
Don’t forget about Luebke for NLROY. If the Padres leave him in the rotation he should get serious consideration.
With Bautista’s ankle injury (from what I heard), there probably won’t be an MVP challenge from him after all. I’m hoping it’s not as bad as they described on the radio, but it sounded ugly.
I’m watching the game, and it was a nasty looking ankle roll – his spikes caught on the dirt when he tried to slide, and instead of just sliding along, it rolled.
Apparently though, it’s not the deadly high ankle sprain, I hope he’s ok. Guess the Jays will have to rely on John McDonald to replace the offense.. sigh….. or call up Brett Lawrie like, right now.
Yes, I’ve just heard it was a tweak and day to day. The radio guys were using the term “exploded” so I feared the worst.
Whew!
Yeah, he’s day to day. So should be alright.
The rest of the mostly inept Jays team has hung 16 on the Yankees so far, with an inning to go. Who needs Jose?! haha.
Hamilton only played 133 games last year and still ran away with the MVP. With the crazy season Bautista’s had so far he could miss the rest of the year and still be in contention.
yes but hamilton is very white and played for a very good team
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I really want to see if Ichiro gets to 200 hits this season.
…he better start hitting .340 like, right now.
I just don’t think it’s in the cards for this season. I think this is all tsunami/nuclear emotional fallout. I think the key is next year. Does he have the desire to come back when the world is so messed up? Can he put it out of his mind enough to fight off age for the rest of his contract (aka next year)?
Will Juan Castro come out of retirement and lead the Reds to the playoffs?
OPSBI’s ? what in the world?
Is it OPS + RBI or OPS * 1000 + RBI
Bautista currently has an OPS of 1.17 and 65 RBIs so does that make his OPSBI 66.17 or 1235?
Sarcasm fail….click the freakin’ link in the article – it’s making fun of something dumb a GM said, who apparently wasn’t kidding. Oh, and it’s clearly got to be OPS without the decimal. I assume somewhere on the internet someone has constructed both versions and found which has a higher correlation with WAR. If not, fangraphs should satrt up a page of “imaginary stats that dumb baseball people make up to either sound smart or attempt to make fun of other stats”
fail fail…
i read the article, but the article didn’t say OPS multiplied by 1000.
from a statistical point there’s no such thing as ops without the decimal. it would be OPS * 1000; but for the sake of this statistic it could also be OPS * 900 or 85 or 1100 in order to normalize to a different scale
AGon is way ahead of Bautista in OBSPRBICHRBIPAR. Obvious MVP.
I’m interested to see what the Tigers do before the deadline, and if they have what it takes to pull away from the pack in the Central.
Thome getting 600? Someone? Anyone?
Whether someone achieves any arbitrary round number of anything is a colossal bore.
Can Dan Haren and Jered Weaver be a 2011 version of 2001 Curt/Randy in the playoffs, if they make it? And will Walden be Byun Huhn Kim?
How will Jeter perform in the playoffs (submitted by Minka Kelly)?
Which Manager will choke in the playoffs by gving ABs or IP to a veteran over a talented kid (I nominate Dusty Baker to bench Joey Votto for Shawon Duston).
Will Bruce Bochy face the Cardinals in the playoff and get to explain why he selected Scott Rolen & Carlos Beltran instead of Albert Pujols for the All Star Game.
Will Enos Harris break Rob Neyers chat record?
Will Dave Cameron explain how he got Michael Pineda so terribly wrong?
I expect to be watching reruns in the second half. Plot: Tigers in first place well into the season, then watch the Twins zoom past them in the second half, finishing just barely ahead of the Kitties.
And despite him being a Twin, I will be very interested in seeing if Thome has enough working body parts to get five more homers.
Yeah, I can’t wait for a Twins-Yankees playoff series. You never know how that one will play out.
Yeah, I can’t wait for a Twins-Yankees playoff series. You never know how that one will play out.,
Twins will have the lead ib each game. We know that.
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Let’s say that I have a $100 bill and 20 $1 bills.
You have four $50 dollar bills and a few $20 bills. What is the most valuable bill?
You get the picture. You have more money (wins), but I have the most valuable bill.
Jose Bautista is the MVP.