Shane Victorino Is Better Than Ryan Howard
This morning, Eric wrote-up a list of surprising offensive heros, and at the head of the pack was Shane Victorino. The Phillies center fielder has picked up the slack for the disabled Chase Utley and struggling Jimmy Rollins, giving Philadelphia a dynamic top-of-the-order hitter, even though it’s not the same one they’re accustomed to having. And, certainly, it qualifies as a surprise that Victorino has been the best hitter on a team with Ryan Howard; the Phillies first baseman might be overrated, but he’s still a good hitter, and he has outhit Victorino by a good margin for most of their careers.
But in looking at the two side by side, it’s interesting to note that Victorino has probably had a better career with the Phillies than Howard up to this point. In fact, the data suggests that not only has Victorino kept up with his more famous teammate, he’s been the better player for quite some time now.
Let’s start with the career numbers. Victorino was grabbed by the Phillies in the 2004 Rule 5 draft, but at the end of spring training he was offered back to the Dodgers for $25,000. LA decided to keep the cash (whoops!), so the Phillies sent Victorino to Triple-A for the season. He hit well enough to earn a roster spot in 2006, and he’s been a regular in Philadelphia’s lineup ever since. Two-thousand-and-six was also the year that Howard, after getting part-time play in 2004 and 2005, became a full-time regular- so we’ll start our comparison there.
2006-2011 WAR:
Shane Victorino: +21.5
Ryan Howard: +19.9
Since both became regulars, Howard has played 60 more games due to better health, but has still been outproduced by a small margin.
Offensively, Howard wins fairly easily – his .276/.372/.566 line is 36 percent better than league average (park adjusted), while Victorino’s .283/.347/.440 mark is 11 percent better than league average (again after accounting for Citizens Bank Park) during that time. The gap between the two offensively is just under +13.5 wins, a pretty large margin. But there’s more to the sport than just hitting, and Victorino destroys Howard at nearly everything else.
Not surprisingly, there’s a big disparity in the quality of their base running once they do reach safely. By using his wheels to go from first to third regularly, Victorino has been 15 runs above average on the bases over the last 5 1/2 years. During that same timeframe, Howard’s lack of speed has cost the Phillies 21 runs compared to an average runner. Just in terms of running the bases on balls in play, Victorino has a +3.5 win advantage since 2006.
Moving on to the other area where speed has a significant impact, Victorino makes up even more ground defensively. UZR has rated him as 34 runs better than an average defensive outfielder (with the same distribution of playing time between CF, LF, and RF) since 2006. UZR, meanwhile, isn’t as kind to Howard, as he’s graded out at 21 runs worse than an average defensive first baseman. Again, the gap there is substantial, and Victorino’s defense compared to his peers gives him a +5.5 win advantage over Howard.
And we haven’t even touched on the positional scarcity argument yet. UZR compares players to the average at their position, but we also have to account for the fact that is harder to find an average defensive center fielder than an average defensive first baseman. That’s where the position adjustment comes into play. Since Victorino has split time between all three outfield positions, he actually doesn’t get a huge boost here, coming out with a position adjustment of just +2.1 runs over the time period we’re looking at. Essentially, his time in left and right field cancels out his time in center, so the final verdict is that he’s played positions that are basically right around average in terms of scarcity of talent.
Howard, however, has spent his entire career at first base, the least important defensive position on the diamond. Because it’s so easy to find a guy who can play first base, Howard gets penalized by 64 runs, creating another +6.5 win gap between him and Victorino, which essentially levels out the difference between a guy who can play all three outfield spots and a player who is tied to first base.
That gives us the following final tally:
Hitting – Howard, +13.5 wins
Base Running – Victorino, +3.5 wins
Defense – Victorino, +5.5 wins
Positional Scarcity – Victorino, +6.5 wins
Victorino’s advantages in the other aspects of baseball besides hitting close the gap and then some, giving him a better WAR total than Howard since 2006. But, let’s not just stop there – let’s look at where each of them rank within their positional groups since 2006.
Outfielders with more WAR than Victorino, 2006-2011: Matt Holliday, Curtis Granderson, Ryan Braun, Ichiro Suzuki, Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran.
First baseman with more WAR than Howard, 2006-2011: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Justin Morneau, Derrek Lee
Seven outfielders have performed better than Victorino over the last 5 1/2 years, but 11 first baseman have performed better than Howard during that same stretch.
But because he specializes in the skills that the market doesn’t generally value as highly, Victorino is in the second year of a 3 year, $22 million contract, while Howard is just one year away from his five year, $125 million extension kicking in. Or, to put it another way, Howard will make about as much money in 2012 as the Phillies will have paid Victorino from 2006 to 2012 combined.
At about $30 million per season for the pair, the Phillies are actually getting a pretty decent return on their investment from the pair – it’s just the allocation between the two that is way off kilter. Hopefully, when the two teammates go out to dinner, Howard picks up the check for his superior and underpaid teammate.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Shane Victorino is better than Carl Crawford, too.
Dave, what are you talking about, guys like Howard who just have great consistency and the ability to consistently go out there and knock in 100 runs (albeit clogging the bases a bit) have huge value. Even though Howard can’t help a team win the right way by bunting and stealing bases, he just knows how to turn it on in the clutch. Howard is the kind of guy who makes his teammates better, and his defense is vastly underrated too – he hasn’t made a single error in 60 games this season. You can take all those wasted walks with a guy like Joey Votto, give me the guy who goes out there and takes his aggressive hacks.
You is trollin!
You might want to check and see if your sarcasm meter is properly calibrated.
Unless William is being ironic, too. Too much credit?
I would prefer to have Joey Votto play for my team than Howard.
Howard isn’t a top 6-7 1B by anyones standard, isn’t a top 50 MLB player and yet will be in the top 10 paid come next year. This for a player who is limited with the glove or bat as LOOGY’s feast on him.
I think anyone in baseball would rather have Votto than Howard.
No sh*t Sherlock
Please don’t feed the trolls.
How did all of you miss the sarcasm here?
Excellent question.
+1 for the obscure Seinfeld name.
Jay, next time you visit your butcher, can you pick up some horse meat for me? Bring it to Battery Park and I’ll trade you a Russian hat for it.
Sable? No, but the difference is negligible…
Justin Verlander is better than everyone
Chase Utley has accumulated more WAR in 107 plate appearances this year than in Howard’s 316.
That is to say Utley has 1.2 WAR in 107 PAs and Howard has 1.1 WAR in 316.
Was this even a question?
Shane has been one of the most underrated players in baseball for several years and is probably the best or at least one of the best all around CF in the NL. His defense has always been fantastic and now his bat is also really good in what looks like a career year for him.
While the Fangraphs crowd may be more advanced, I assume most baseball fans would be surprised if you told them that a guy who had never hit 20HR and never hit .300 was more valuable than a guy who has 244 HRs and 738 RBI in his last six seasons.
I was expecting to just see how Victorino was more valuable right now or has been this season, which would be totally expected. But I was pretty surprised to read Victorino has “had a better career with the Phillies than Howard up to this point.” That includes some pretty good Howard years.
***Outfielders with more WAR than Victorino, 2006-2011: Matt Holliday, Curtis Granderson, Ryan Braun, Ichiro Suzuki, Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran.***
Dave, I like what you’re doing here but why not limit it to CFs only? Its not all that fair to compare Vic to no defense corner OFs.
Why is it unfair? WAR considers position and defense and credits Victorino appropriately.
It also should be noted that Victorino would be Third-Team All MLB Outfielder over that timeframe (to borrow an NBA concept), while Howard would be the Twelfth-Team All MLB First Baseman.
RF and LF are not the same position…Comparing Victorino against guys of his own position would make more sense than using all OFs for the comparison. Vic has been a fulltime CF since the start of the 08 season with Rowand’s off-season departure to SF.
Using WAR to compare Vic to other OFs is fine as its adjusted to reflect that but using it in the way Dave did to say “Vic is the 8th best OF in baseball while Howard is the 11th best 1B” doesn’t quite work. The point would have been better emphasized to show that Vic is the 4th best CF in that time period compared to Howard’s 11th best 1B.
Does that make sense?
It’s not fair because Dave is saying that Victorino has been better than Howard when the WAR actually does not show that. Since it takes a position adjustment for Victorino’s WAR to exceed Howard’s, the conclusion should be that Howard is a better player than Victorino, but that Howard’s production is more easily replaceable; therefore, Victorino has been more valuable. There definitely needs to be a distinction between better and more valuable.
I’d think it’s because Victorino, over that span, has played all the outfield positions, as Dave noted above, in the passage about his positional adjustment.
That’s a good point I suppose.
Any adjustments to position in lineup?
Howard is one of the best run producers in baseball and guys like Dave Cameron write these blatantly bias and shallow articles saying he’s worse than Shane Victorino. It’s absurd. Howard is on a near record pace for RBI’s, and Cameron is so quick to point out that he’s not the best baserunner (then criticizes him for his defense despite the fact that the guy has made 1 error all year). What about all the stuff Howard does to make his teammates better? How many runs and wins does he generate that way? What about how clutch he is in September and late-game situations? Nary a mention there.
It’s garbage. More people should know about Howard. Guys like him and Jeter have taken so much criticism I think they are now among the most underrated players in baseball.
He also gets more RBI opportunities than pretty much anyone in baseball.
Huge Phillies fan myself but lets be a bit honest here.
He also drives in more RBIs than pretty much anyone in baseball. With everyone looking at UZR and UBR and WAR Howard’s ability to drive in runners is now baseball’s underrated commodity.
He’s on pace for 130+ RBI’s. Again. He’s just amazing and this is the beginning of a Hall of Fame.
Howard is better at driving in runs by virtue of the fact that he gives his teammates hugs and high-fives and stuff, which makes them better hitters, which makes him have more guys on base in front of him.
But, wait, Shane Victorino has much better numbers than Howard with the bases loaded. He must be clutcherer, no?
does he really though? come back at me with a cumalative OBP of the people in front of howard this year. i’d guess its under .300.
this isn’t the team of ’08 where you could hit anywhere in the lineup and get 80 rbi’s sneezing.
Jamie: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=PHI&year=2011#lineu
OBP: Phils (League)
1st: .328 (.331)
2nd: .365 (.319)
3rd: ..324 (.350)
Howard has batted fourth, exclusively. That averages to -about- .005 higher than league average. Adjusting for the park it would be below average (though since we’re talking RBI I don’t know if adjusting is warranted).
With Utley back, those numbers should be well above average for the rest of the year.
Thanks K…
very surprising.
Settle down, everyone. It’s tongue in cheek. I believe this is the same Robert that added many similarly sarcastic comments on Howard’s player page. They’re quite funny.
I’m not being sarcastic at all. I just think about baseball the right way and like the winners like Howard who are constantly bashed on forums like this.
i’m guessing ‘winners’ take a called 3rd strike to end the NLCS? or go 0 for the 09 world series while setting the WS batter strikeout record?
In Howard’s defense, that was a terrible strike call as the ball was at his ankles.
Reimenschneider already did the sarcastic RBIs / Errors / “play the game the right way” thing up above.
You had me at Jeter. The sarcasm would’ve been great up until that point. Got greedy on us.
you can not be serious to say howard has “only 1 error all year”. case in point yesterday on the ichiro ground ball that ate him up, but wasn’t an error because it was in seattle. You’re going to throw a subjective term like error around to explain the defensive ablities of Howard? I don’t agree with using UZR as an end all be all for first basemen but i definitely know not to use errors either.
All the stuff howard does to make other better is laid out in this article, and you’re just missing it i guess. You mention being clutch in september but last i checked, those games matter just as much as games in any other month when he’s not as “clutch”. Using month to month splits is just using small sample sizes, which equals usually bad analysis
You’re forgetting how much an error, moreso than just a missed play, can mess with a pitcher’s confidence. Mistakes like that are contagious and just tend to stress out pitchers – Howard might not be a gold glover who can make the impossible play, but he makes all the routine plays. Steady defense like that is just incredibly valuable.
And ask the Mets how clutch Howard is.
mistakes are not contagious. they are only contagious when the storyline wants them to be.
That play in question WAS a routine play, plus i think i’ll i need to ask you is how you feel seeing ryan howard try to make a throw from 1st to 2nd for a potenial double play ball. providing “steady” defense is like saying joe blanton provides “steady” pitching when he’s healthy
Rupert, as the Mets how clutch anyone is. They love finding interesting ways to lose. They’re the Mets.
Don’t use RBI. I don’t have a hard on for FIP and other stats like guys on here, but using RBI is downright retarded. It’d be like having a Lambo drive a mile as fast as possible, and then have a Mustang drive a mile as fast as possible but against 10 Ford Focuses, and then saying the mustang is better because it “passed more cars”. the only reason Howard has more RBI is because people are on base when he hits.
Let’s say you have 2 hitters, one hits 75 home runs and bats 1.000, however, no one is ever on base. guess how many RBI’s he has? 75. Player 2 hits .167, getting exactly 100 hits, but every time there is a runner on 3rd, guess what, player 2, mr. .167 batting average has more RBI than the greatest season ever.
So yea, don’t ever use RBI unless you want people to think you’re a retard.
Get a life, Howard haters! At least get some detergent to wash your dirty jock straps.
I took it as irony, not just tolling
This is nonsense.
I feel like Robert and I are the voice of reason here.
Ryan Howard is the premier player in baseball today. Just look at the way this guy drives in runs, he does it like no one else in baseball can. Forget all the noise –runs, home runs, batting average, this guy does the most important thing, drive in runs, as well as anyone who has ever played this game. Walks do nothing for an offense besides clog up the bases. Look at a time like the ’76 Reds, they didn’t take walks because they knew the best way to score was to take your hacks, sacrifice runners over, hustle out every play, and not clog up the bases, all the things that players who know how to win consistently do. He already walks 10.8% of the time, which is way more often then optimal. It’s his job to take his hacks and drive in the runners in front of him, not sit around, take walks, and the clog the bases.
Now you guys are just getting lazy and re-posting the same stuff you have on his player page. Funny though.
Completely true, you tell me where WAR accounts for RBIs (the most important stat), and then we’ll talk. Shane Victorino has never been able to hit in the clutch like Howard has, and that, along with the RBIs, makes all the difference between them. You tell me who led their September charges to the playoffs, Howard or Victorino?
*snort*
Replying to yourself is the lamest form of trollism.
Finally someone who gets it. RBI’s are the most underrated stat in today’s baseball environment. It’ls also critical to note that Howard also plays error free defense. It’s been proven that errors mess with a pitcher’s confidence. No question then, that Howard’s improved 1B defense is a paramount reason that guys like Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee come out with consistently great starts.
It’s been proven by who? You? Has it been proven that the pitcher would rather have a ball that an average 1B would get to go by Howard for a base hit? As long as it isn’t an error though, right?
you know roy halladay played for another team before the phillies, right? and he was pretty good there, too?
You may want to look into what the phrase “it is proven” actually means. I think you’ll find that it conveys a meaning completely antithetical to the point you’re trying to make.
He walks way more often that what’s optimal? What is optimal? And how optimal is his k rate? Rrrrreally good, right? But probably better to k than grab a walk and clog the bases is what I gather?
THREAT LEVEL MIDNIGHT REFERENCE WOOO
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=all&stats=bat&type=8&season=1976&month=0&season1=1976
idiot says what?
Of all the teams to choose to troll with, you choose the ’76 Reds?
They had great walkers like Joe Morgan and would have been outstanding in any era, as well as being impressive to SABR and non-SABR types alike.
At least pick the ’88 Dodgers, masters of the grit. Nobody played the game right and exemplified heart and determination like the ’88 Dodgers.
Alfredo Griffin loved baseball so much that he once swung at a pitch that hit him.
I once saw Ryan Howard catch up to a Mark Wohlberg fastball. Catch me if you can.
I am going to assume that you said Wolhberg on purpose as a jab at McCarver, and as such, well done.
Your trolling isn’t even good. Get some new material or stop.
That’s a valid argument and while Howard is a bopper (and chicks do love the long ball), he will turn 32 this year and he’s not the same player who hit 58 home runs in 2006. Since that year, his home run totals have declined each season with his last great year being 2009 where he hit 45 home runs and drove in 141 runs while racking up a .941 OPS.
We’re almost half-way through the 2011 season and Howard will have to mash 30 home runs in the next 90 games to reach his 2009 mark. Victorino and Howard are two, totally different players where one gets on base and the other drives him in. So it would be prudent to say that one doesn’t enjoy the fruits of victory without the other.
When it comes to payroll though, it is remarkable how much of the pie gets eaten by Howard–especially in the years to come. Howard is known for big second-halves and he’s going to need it this year to come close to the Ryan Howard that was signed to that huge extension.
it’s also not out of the question he could have a month like david ortiz had for may, and he’s 35 so age really doesn’t have much to do with it. It’s not out of the question that howard could hit 30 home runs from here on out. a projection is just that, not a prediction
Wanna know something even more amazing? Lee, halladay, Howard, and Ultey will get like a combined 80M next year. All over 30, 3 of them tied up for a fairly lengthy time period, 2 of them for a very lengthy time period.
I can’t wait until the Phillies turn into the Cubs and their annoying fans shut up and realize that the sun shines even on a dog’s ass once in a while. the Phillies are not a special team, it’s just their “run” right now.
Dave Cameron makes me fucking sick with his Ryan Howard bashing.
Howard is an importer/exporter of badassed-ness, and until ‘clutch’ factors into WAR, he will continue to be vastly underrated.
He was really clutch striking out looking to end the NLCS last year.
I’m a Phillies fan who thinks the DC goes too far sometimes against the Phillies…but really guys. Ryan Howard is so overrated it’s not even funny anymore.
you’re so obviously the same person with all the seinfeld/office names
How did Keith Hernandez not make it on here?
I heard Shane Victorino was the 2nd spitter.
I CAN’T TELL WHO’S BEING SERIOUS AND WHO’S NOT!!! CAPS LOCK!!!
Looking at WAR graphs on this site show Victorino and Howard to be nearly identical. The differences are that at his best Howard hit much better than Victorino ever will, while Victorino stays consistent.
Anyone else think the Ryan Howard bashing isn’t funny at all? ( I realize he’s not that great) But seriously, I think it got boring after about 3 player page comments.
i think the names that are references to esoteric characters in sitcoms are the best part and then the actual post is a huge letdown. might as well just leave links to FJM and let us read something from when this genre was, well, original
Look the things a guy like Howard can bring to your team that other guys can’t: the ability to knock in runs, steady defense, consistency, an MVP award, and above all the ability to perform down the stretch and in clutch situations, and tell me that isn’t worth every penny of his contract. Dave Cameron clearly has some sort of agenda against Howard for him to be so shortsighted in his bashing. I mean if you had to pick between a masher like Howard who’s going to knock in 120+ every year or some middling guy like Victorino, every good GM would take Howard.
Look the things a guy like Joe Davola can bring to your forum comments that other guys can’t: the ability to repost, steady trolling, consistency, a series of new names for himself, and above all the ability to fail to provide any originality in his posts, and tell me that isn’t worth every second of your time wasted reading. Everyone clearly has some sort of agenda against Joe Davola for them to be so shortsighted in their bashing. I mean if you had to pick between a unoriginal reposter like Joe Davola who’s going to repost his drivel 120+ times every week or some middling guy like NEPP, every good forum reader would take Joe Davola.
Juan Pierre doesn’t even have a mustache. Hey, this guy’s a phony!!!!!!
sir, that is libel and i will hear no more: here is pictoral evidence of my namesake. please cease and desist from these accusations.
http://www.bleachernation.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/juan-pierre-moustache.jpg
Can I bench you and your facial hair for Dayan Viciedo now please? Please?
Middling?!?
So…1.6 WAR over 5.5 seasons is less than .3 per year, the difference largely due to defensive numbers.
.3 defensive WAR is not statistically significant.
not for one season, but accumulating a total of 1.6 over several seasons in fact, is. by your logic, i could say that a 600 AB season was not statistically significant because if i divide it into weeks, each week is too small of a sample to consider.
adding a bunch of error together does not get rid of the error.
no, but taking several samples that give you similar results does
Woah! Everything about that first post is wrong!
Victorino = steroids
Well, this certainly is fantastic news! Now, players won’t have to search for some back-alley dope peddler. They can just inject themselves with Shane and reap all the benefits of PEDs with a friendly smile to boot.
The question had to be asked
That’d be a great pickup line for him: “Hey ladies, who wants to inject themselves with Shane?”
The question had to be asked? I didn’t see any question in your comment.
ddriver80 = Medulla Oblongata
How does this comment not have a -75 by now? Seriously buddy, why even bring such a BS accusation into this?
Because it was a joke
Or at least I hope so…
In Japan, Ryan Howard baseball player number one, steady hand, great batting eye. One day, Yakuza boss bet on game, Ryan Howard guarantee win, but…MISTAKE! Ryan Howard doesn’t hit home run, Yakuza boss loses money. Yakuza very mad. So Ryan Howard hide in fishing boat and come to America. Ryan Howard has no money, no food, no job. Ruben Amaro Jr give Ryan Howard job, now he has new house, American car, new women. Ruben Amaro Jr save life. Ryan Howard’s big secret: he doesn’t hit home run on purpose, he’s good baseball player…THE BEST!
Best “The Office” reference I’ve ever read.
Does the baserunning advantage Victorino has take into account that all CF’s are going to be better baserunners than 1st basemen?
Victorino is way better than Howard at baserunning, but how much better is he than his positional peers?
I’m guessing there is some kind of positional comparison for baserunning stats, and this is accounted for in the numbers. Anyone know how this adjustment is made?
‘all centerfielders are going to be better baserunners than first basemen’
this is seinfeld guy’s best comment yet
To be fair, this is a legitimate point if the WAR positional adjustments were done before baserunning data was available. For instance, if using just batting and defensive data we get:
replacement CF: -1 WAR
replacement 1B: +1 WAR
then we’ll use a 2 WAR positional adjustment (just making these up). If, after adjusting for baserunning, the replacement level is:
CF: -.75
1B: +.75
Then by using the original replacement numbers we’re overvaluing centerfielders.
They might have already fixed this, though.
Ha I didn’t realize there was another John making ridiculous comments. I am a different John. I’ll have to make my name more recognizable in the future.
Good lord, Howard’s 5 years, 25 mil per year extension doesn’t even START until next year? That’s going to end splendidly for the Phillies.
As a NATS fan I am dreaming of the day it kicks in!!! An albatross contract for a one great season wonder. Hopefully, they will sink to last for a while and I will love, love, love it!!!
2011 WAR: Morse 1.6 in 224 PAs, Howard 1.1 in 316 PAs.
Speaking of albatross contracts, How’s Jason Werth working out for you?
Ok, look Ryan Howard is many things, but he is not a one year wonder. Second, the deal was a derek jeter deal. Ryan howard is one of the franchise guys and they want him to retire a philly. the deal’s worth it.
Finally, I’ve been a phillies fan my whole life. they are the losingest franchise in sports history. When this beautiful run ends, I’m not gonna be bothered by last place finishes. It will have been worth it.
As long as he remains relatively productive and they dont have to replace him at 1B before the end of the deal, they’ll survive. Subtract that contract from their payroll and they still have $145 million to pay the other 24 guys. That would put them maybe 5th overall in payroll.
Its a pretty bad overpay but as long as he keeps hitting enough to start, its bareable. It would be crippling to a mid-sized franchise though.
It’s that for their payroll now. What about when the Philly fans stop showing up? Once you know, cliff lee and Howard are combining for like 50M and are a combined 73 years old? Then they don’t have the money coming in as fast AND they have wasted money. That’s a shitty situation.
Christ you idiots trolling and sarcasm/irony are the same thing.
Employing sarcasm is not necessarily equivalent to trolling.
I didn’t say it was. When someone says “He knows how to drive in runs” it is though.
You kind of did.
“Christ you idiots trolling and sarcasm/irony are the same thing.”
But whatever, I think we can agree that this Seinfeld-character poster’s act wore pretty thin pretty quickly even though he obviously wasn’t serious. Doing it on Howard’s player page may be good for a guffaw or two, but taking up 15-20 posts on a current thread gets annoying.
Valid points, but comparing their positional WAR ranking doesn’t add anything to the argument. WAR already accounts for positional differences. Hypothetically if the 15th WAR-ranked player at one position has a higher WAR than the 10th highest WAR player at another position, the player with the higher WAR is still more valuable. Had Howard posted the same WAR but happened to be ranked 4th in WAR at 1B instead of 11th it still wouldn’t make him better than Victorino. For example if Joey Votto had gotten hurt in Spring Training last year and had a lower WAR then Howard from 2006-2011, it wouldn’t have impacted Howard’s value to the Phillies.
Could Ryan Howard BE anymore clutch
Whoa, mega 90’s flashback!
From John Sickles’ writeup of the 2004 Rule 5 Draft:
“7) Philadelphia selects Shane Victorino (OF, Los Angeles). The first pick that, to me at least, doesn’t make much sense even on a traditional baseball level. Victorino is a good defensive outfielder with speed, and he hit .327 with 16 homers in Double-A this year. But he hit just .235 in Triple-A, which is really lousy for Las Vegas. He is the kind of guy you could probably pick up in a minor league trade or on waivers at some point if you really want him, so using a Rule 5 pick is strange. He will compete for a reserve outfielder job.”
Ryan Howard is the better player, I do declare.
The thing WAR really means is “how hard is it to find this player”. You can find probably a dozen 1B as good or better than Howard. Looking foreward to the next 5 years, probably more. You won’t find many more CF as good as Victorino though.
I highly doubt you can find “a dozen 1B as good or better than Howard”. Maybe Pujols, Cabrera, and AGonz, but he’s pretty solidly in there as the 4th best 1B in baseball, at worst, and at best he’s ahead of all of them.
>People putting Ryan Howard in their top 5 1B in baseball
I seriously hope you guys don’t do this
Again, not sure about the seriousness of this, but:
Pujols, Votto, Youkilis, Cabrera, Fielder, Berkman, Teixeira, Konerko, Morneau, and Dunn have all produced more WRC+ than Howard from 2008 through 2011, which is a decent indicator of what kind of players they are now. That’s probably the kindest stat you could find, since it ignores defense and baserunning but counts Howard’s durability. Everyone in the above list except Dunn (bad defense) and Konerko (bad baserunning) out-WARS Howard as well, as does Derrek Lee despite being a worse batter. The only places where Howard does well are home runs (#2 behind Pujols) and…wait for it…RBIs! (#1)
Link: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0
From 2008-2011 Ryan Howard leads baseball in RBIs. Meaning he has directly contributed to the most runs being scored of anyone. He also has the second most HRs over the same time period.
Don’t forget about me in the top 5!
I make Howard’s clutch look like Buckner! He needs 40 HR to get his 130 RBI!
I’m so clutch I can drive in 90 a year on only 3 HR. Let’s see that bum Howard try that!
’09 WS and ’10 NLCS be damned, there’s no man I want up more in an RBI spot than the Big Piece. As astute Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. stated, the reason why he gave Howard a record deal is because he is an “elite RBI producer”. That, my friends, is the man I want leading a team with a $170MM and debt issues for the next decade.
Let’s assume for a moment that Howard has a skill for performing better in RBI situations. There is some indication of this in his career (i.e. his splits with runners on versus bases empty). Even if this is not a repeatable skill going forward, it is a component of his performance from 2006 – 2011.
Howard has a career clutch of +3.08. He had -1.01 in 2005 (and 0.15 in 2004), so since 2006 he has contributed nearly +4 wins more with his bat than the context-neutral stats suggest.
Victorino has a career 0.01 clutch.
So if we account for context-specific performance, Howard beats Vic by about 2 wins.
Clutch doesn’t just apply in “clutch” situations, Ryan Howard was clutch throughout the entire month of September in 2007 and 2008, carrying a Phillies team past the choking Mets. If you looked into the eyes of Mets players and then looked into the eyes of Ryan Howard in those September games you could see all the difference.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe%27s_law
“Hopefully, when the two teammates go out to dinner, Howard picks up the check for his superior and underpaid teammate.”
fwiw, the two go out to dinner quite often (i live near where they live). i’m not sure who pays the check, but i know for a fact that neither of them tip.
I didn’t see in the stats where it accounts for Victorino’s bone headed plays. I like the guy, but if he pops another ball up in the infield….
If the Phillies knew how to build a better team around Howard they would be legitimate title contenders.
Jimmy Rollins should go, Cole Hamels is dead weight. Give them Pedro Feliz (plays the game the right way), Jim Thome (true gamer), and Kris Benson (intangibles), and they’ll get a pennant. Mark my words.
Phillies fans won’t care about Howard’s contract or whether or not he’s better than Victorino while celebrating the World Series championship this year.
Howard is actually having a better year at the plate than Pujols. More extra base hits, more walks. The only thing Pujols has done better this year than Howard at the plate this season is hit singles.
Howard is overrated in the general media (and by the Phillies based on that contract), and so I guess it will continue to be a mark of pride here on Fangraphs (and in the forums) to rip him well past the point of credibility (rips covering the full range from passive, as the first post shows, to active aggression).
I will point out a couple of facts and then make an argument:
1) Howard actually has been better than Shane Victorino according to the metrics employed by Cameron. The positional adjustment accounts for the entire (and more) difference, and as pointed above, a WPA-type stat would make Howard worth two more wins. Those are the stats that represent what actually happened. The two have been very close though by the metrics employed.
2) As someone noted above, Ryan Howard is a better hitter with men on base throughout his career. Can anyone think of why this would be? The two options would seem to be a) a long standing fluke or b) that there’s something about the situation with men on base that makes Howard a better hitter. The answer is (b); teams cannot (or at least, do not) shift as radically or effectively with base runners on and so Howard is more likely to get ground ball hits. Ergo, a stat like WAR which, for its many benefits that I don’t deny, are actually too context neutral to accommodate this: it writes off as a fluke an actual repeatable benefit of a player who hits better with men on base.
Finally, the argument. Does anyone “really” believe that Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman, and Derek Lee have been been than Ryan Howard 2006-11? I mean, really? All have been primarily first basemen, Howard has undeniably been a better hitter than all three them, and stayed much healthier than 2 of them, so the difference here is entirely UZR. And if it’s UZR of a 1B, which fluctuates wildly away from scouting reports and other sources of defensive data, is driving this whole discussion, how much underlying credibility does it have? For all of WAR’s usefulness, for the reasons I point out here, I believe it underrates Ryan Howard.
“The answer is (b); teams cannot (or at least, do not) shift as radically or effectively with base runners on and so Howard is more likely to get ground ball hits. Ergo, a stat like WAR which, for its many benefits that I don’t deny, are actually too context neutral to accommodate this: it writes off as a fluke an actual repeatable benefit of a player who hits better with men on base.”
Very true, but the nerds and virgins like Dave Cameron will assail you for even insinuating that RBIs mean anything.
This article looks really smart now.
Victorino: 5.6 WAR
Howard: 1.1 WAR
So the Flyin’ Hawaiian is actually FIVE TIMES BETTER.
my guess is that in a few years, Howard’s contract could look like a Soriano-level mistake, albeit with fewer years remaining.
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