Shohei Ohtani Is a Dodger
Baseball’s version of Lebron James’ The Decision appears to have come to pass, with all-universe talent Shohei Ohtani announcing on his Instagram that he has found a new home in Los Angeles, this time with the Dodgers. The deal is for 10 years and $700 million.
While the full details of the contract’s “unprecedented” deferrals aren’t yet known, 10 years and $700 million is the mega-contract of all mega-contracts, besting the previous record by hundreds of millions of dollars. And like the Alex Rodriguez signing more than two decades ago, this will likely be the record for a while, including a possible Juan Soto deal next winter.
I doubt I have to describe just how good Ohtani, but ZiPS projects him to be in the MVP race most years that he’s healthy. And while his 2024 season won’t feature any trips to the mound, there are still another nine years on the contract!
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | .259 | .359 | .545 | 528 | 91 | 137 | 27 | 5 | 38 | 122 | 80 | 149 | 17 | 142 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 2025 | .257 | .359 | .534 | 521 | 88 | 134 | 26 | 5 | 36 | 117 | 80 | 143 | 15 | 139 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 2026 | .253 | .354 | .518 | 510 | 84 | 129 | 25 | 4 | 34 | 109 | 78 | 140 | 13 | 133 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 2027 | .242 | .344 | .485 | 491 | 77 | 119 | 23 | 3 | 30 | 100 | 74 | 135 | 11 | 122 | 0 | 2.2 |
| 2028 | .239 | .341 | .467 | 465 | 70 | 111 | 22 | 3 | 26 | 89 | 70 | 129 | 9 | 117 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | .233 | .335 | .448 | 433 | 64 | 101 | 20 | 2 | 23 | 78 | 64 | 122 | 8 | 111 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 2030 | .232 | .332 | .440 | 393 | 56 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 20 | 69 | 57 | 111 | 6 | 108 | 0 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | .229 | .328 | .431 | 353 | 49 | 81 | 16 | 2 | 17 | 59 | 51 | 101 | 5 | 105 | 0 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | .223 | .321 | .412 | 354 | 47 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 57 | 50 | 102 | 4 | 98 | 0 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | .224 | .321 | .408 | 304 | 39 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 42 | 89 | 3 | 97 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12 | 5 | 3.41 | 25 | 25 | 145.0 | 116 | 55 | 19 | 47 | 159 | 124 | 3.1 |
| 2026 | 11 | 6 | 3.50 | 24 | 24 | 144.0 | 118 | 56 | 19 | 46 | 153 | 121 | 3.0 |
| 2027 | 11 | 5 | 3.53 | 23 | 23 | 137.7 | 116 | 54 | 19 | 43 | 142 | 120 | 2.7 |
| 2028 | 10 | 6 | 3.69 | 23 | 23 | 134.0 | 117 | 55 | 19 | 42 | 134 | 115 | 2.5 |
| 2029 | 9 | 6 | 3.83 | 21 | 21 | 122.3 | 111 | 52 | 18 | 38 | 118 | 111 | 2.1 |
| 2030 | 8 | 5 | 4.01 | 19 | 19 | 107.7 | 100 | 48 | 17 | 36 | 102 | 106 | 1.7 |
| 2031 | 7 | 5 | 4.13 | 17 | 17 | 98.0 | 93 | 45 | 16 | 34 | 90 | 103 | 1.4 |
| 2032 | 7 | 5 | 4.36 | 17 | 17 | 95.0 | 93 | 46 | 16 | 35 | 85 | 97 | 1.1 |
| 2033 | 5 | 5 | 4.60 | 15 | 15 | 78.3 | 79 | 40 | 14 | 31 | 68 | 92 | 0.7 |
The value of baseball stars is very largely tied to the perceived effects of teams winning games. When Andrew Zimbalist examined this question in Baseball and Billions, he found that very few players really drove revenue for teams beyond their on-field contributions. The exceptions — where baseball fame transcends the simple act of winning baseball games — are few and far between. Think Fernando Valenzuela when Fernandomania struck Los Angeles 40 years ago, an example Zimbailst pointed to. Or Nolan Ryan in the twilight of his career, or Cal Ripken Jr. breaking Lou Gehrig’s consecutive games played record, or the great home run race of 1998 between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Ohtani is that kind of player, in a way that other recent greats like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are and were not.
Now, as a result of the surgery that will keep him from pitching next year, ZiPS sees Ohtani as more of a $300 million – $400 million player. But here’s the thing: You can simply ignore that number. ZiPS is a generalized model; it isn’t really equipped to deal with special situations. And Ohtani is more than a special situation. He’s an event, capable of capturing the attention of fans across this country and the rest of the world just by taking the field. His baseball value may be $300 million – $400 million, but the Dodgers are surely looking past that to all the ways he can make their franchise the franchise for Ohtani fans (and make them a lot of money in the process).
My colleague Michael Baumann will have a more extensive reaction piece up soon.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I suspect the Dodgers are projecting much more on-field value than ZiPS is.
What if they aren’t? How much more could be projected for Ohtani? Either way, the only justification is the marketing he brings. Otherwise, it would only make sense to reach Bett’s contract or slightly higher, not nearly double.
Betts and Freeman are both beating their ZiPS projections from the time of their deals by a mile, and they don’t seem to be on this generic aging curve that ZiPS applies. I don’t know, maybe they’re on to something?
Freeman Projected for 8.7 fWAR in 22 and 23, actual was 15
Betts Projected for 19.4 fWAR in 20-23, actual was 21.7 fWAR
Betts only just outdid his projections with his incredible 2023 season as his 20-22 seasons were lower than his zips projections at the time of his contract.
Freeman is blowing the doors off his, he went from all star 1B to MVP 1B in his age 32-33 seasons is incredible.
Maybe but its hard to think that Ohtani is improving as 30 year old on his best season ever at the plate. The easiest spot to continue improvement would be his K% which is still high at 24% in 2023, if he keeps the rest of stats near 2023 levels and lowers the K%, another elite season at the plate is expected.
Betts has comfortably beat his projection each year except ’21. Where did you get those numbers? I’m looking at Ben Clemens’ article “Mookie Betts Dodges Free Agency”
And I’m not suggesting Ohtani will hit better in ’24 than he did in ’23. But the projection is still very light. IMO, he’s up there in Judge, Alvarez, Soto territory as a hitter, but a much better baserunner than any of those guys, where this projection looks more like Kyle Tucker.
I did not have $700M as a possible outcome, but I also didn’t expect him to take (apparently) more than half of the money deferred either. So I suppose a more sophisticated accounting will put the value of the contract as being worth less.
Still, that is an absurd amount of money. I can barely comprehend a contract this large in the context of baseball.
I told ya but you didn’t listen
I was thinking about this, but also, remember when Bryce Harper got stupid money, and now it’s more or less what a 3 WAR infielder can get? Inflation is a helluva drug, and considering how wealthy the owners are, I say, spend it on the players (and also, for the love of god, a better parking/transit facility for Dodger Stadium)
I had a fun conversation with a family member about this yesterday. They were saying no one should make that much money, and I was like “yeah, but otherwise the owners are going to be pocketing that money instead.” Their response was “they should lower the ticket prices!” Which, fair enough, I would much rather they lower the ticket prices but that isn’t happening.
That’s not how economics works. Ticket prices are set independently of player salaries.
Indeed. Ticket prices are set as high as the market will bear.
Teams have lowered the prices of *some* seats but it happens about as often as somebody lands on the moon. 😁
Assuming a correlation between player quality/popularity and player salary, what the market will bear is impacted by salaries.
TYL tells me otherwise!
Lucky for Dodgers fans or else every ticket for the next decade would go up by $18.40
When I (and probably many of us) were kids, there were “races” for superstars to break numbers like $3m/year, $4m, etc. Nowadays the QO is over $20m.
There is an absolutely absurd amount of money in sports. It’s the only product left that demands live TV viewing.
What’s absurd is nobody ever talks about the salaries of NBA players, it’s more ridiculous than MLB.
It is not even close to the level of ridiculous of MLB. Jaylen Brown’s contract has a lower AAV than Ohtani’s even if you reduce it by the deferred money, and as per the NBA CBA, extension contracts can only last five years (four, if you’re a free agent). And that’s the richest contract in NBA history as of right now. No one in the NBA is anywhere close to Ohtani. Most of the superstars have smaller contracts than Harper’s AAV!
NBA players get better advertising and sports gear deals, but in terms of contracts, MLB is the most ridiculous by a landslide.
Jaylen Brown has the most valuable NBA contract in history like Joe Flacco and Jimmy Garoppolo had the most valuable contracts in NFL history. It was all about timing and not about being the best player in the league, which none of them were. Ohtani is the best player in the league.
Harper’s contract was never “stupid money.” Even then it was obviously low on AAV. What is stupid is any expectation that the Phillies will extend him with, what, 8 years to go?
I wonder about that. It seems to me that Boras is out trying to change the market… maybe getting the concept of this sort of deal out as something that could happen or something, with the hope that maybe someone will do it some day. Which would expand Boras’ ability to make more money for his clients.
Don’t think it will work in that no team is that stupid (although the Ryan Howard extension…), but gotta admire the man’s chutzpah in pursuit of getting the most $$$ for his clients!
There’s no amount of money that could make the parking or transport for Dodger Stadium better unless you can buy a Star Trek style transporter and even then the lines for that would be unbearable.unbareable
Just imagine being so filthy rich that you can afford to pay one of your employees 700 hundred million dollars!
I keep suggesting that to my boss but no dice so far…
I can barely comprehend a player as Shohei Ohtani as Shohei Ohtani is in the context of baseball.
Just to follow up on this—not too long ago there were some franchises that sold for this amount of money. I know it was paid out over 20 years but the Marlins did take on a lot of debt.
Of course, Ohtani himself might actually generate as much revenue as the Marlins. Who makes more money—Ohtani or the Marlins? This is an open question.
Alternatively, ZiPS is right. Ohtani is recovering from a 2nd TJ surgery. He’ll pitch again but may never pitch as well as he has. A DH is not worth $700 million regardless of off-field benefits.
It strikes me as silly to ignore off the field value if you’re considering the full impact of his contract (as well as how much more $ LAD gets from RSN/media/etc).
And he’d at *least* be an OF in that circumstance, but I also think he could be a lights-out reliever in a worst case scenario. I also think it makes LAD a more desirable FA destination (which is why he, per reports, asked for deferred AAV). As an LAD fan, I’m thrilled, and I expect some starting pitching (and probably a Michael Busch trade).
I think if his play declines meaningfully, those off-field benefits will too. The reason Shohei is a show is because he’s the best player on the game – if he’s a very good DH in three years, that changes the off-field math too
I disagree. He could break his leg and miss next year and do a realty show about his rehab instead and draw more fans alone than 1-3 MLB clubs. He’s an int’l phenomenon that MLB really hasn’t had since Ichiro (and he’s bigger than Ichiro).
Seems like attendance is a small gain since LAD averaged 47k per game last year. 7k more than the second most team, NYY.
If his arm stops working it won’t make a difference whether he’s starting or relieving. Look at Syndergaard.
Also not sure how the off-field stuff will works for Ohtani. The consensus among knowledgeable people is that guys like Bryce Harper don’t bring in that much money because players pocket almost all their jersey sales and stuff and media deals are multi-year and locked in, so they mostly just affect attendance a bit. I haven’t really looked into this on my own though.
But Ohtani’s huge in Japan which maybe doesn’t have the same deals and media structure as the US, so maybe it plays out differently there.
Ohtani made $40m in endorsements last year. Trout was 2nd with $5m. And that was with a club that didn’t maximize anything about him except IP.
They got as many IP out of him as they could before he hurt his arm. 🙂
From the standpoint of an individual team, a big thing with jersey sales is that merchandise revenue comes through MLB’s centralized licensing arm and is shared equally between teams.
I assume that an individual team makes retail mark-up level profits – i.e., similar to what a 3rd-party retailer selling MLB merchandise would make – on items that are sold at its stadium. That should be treated like other concessions.
For the most part, though, having really strong jersey/merchandise sales isn’t a boon for any particular team.
I don’t think it’s about jerseys — something closer to LeBron in longterm, multimedia engagement (which Mookie has, to a domestic extent). He’s gonna be in movies, he’s gonna own and produce all sorts of things, etc. Just as MLB teams are part of larger portfolios, you see it with top tier sports celebrities, as well.
I don’t see that as answering the question, though: how do those things turn into revenue for the Dodgers?
It still comes back to those turning into things like more tickets sold and/or higher average prices, or higher rates for in-stadium advertising, or a bigger local broadcast contract when the Dodgers’ current deal expires in 2038. And, even with local revenue, the Dodgers themselves are only keeping slightly over half of it because of MLB’s 48% local revenue sharing pool.
I understand that maybe some of that value can be longer-term, e.g, some fans Ohtani draws to the Dodgers stick around long-term. If post-career Ohtani remains high-profile, there could be some longer-term, though hard to quantify, brand value if his name is associated with the Dodgers. But I think the latter ties back to Sportszilla’s point above: if Ohtani ends up having a career where his astounding, great two-way player years were with the Angels, he may not be remembered in way that strongly associates him with the Dodgers.
I don’t think Ohtani and LAD signed this deal (10 yrs, no opt outs) for him to be Reggie Jackson. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t collaborate on a number of things with LAD and end up making it much more of his “brand” (this is not my favorite area of baseball, but I think the idea is to allow Ohtani to become an icon like Michael Jordan or Lionel Messi)
Potentially, yes. If he keeps on blowing out his arm and spends a third of his time recovering from TJ surgery and a third of his time only DHing, it’s not really a great deal. Although if he converts to being an outfielder after he blows out his arm for the third time then that brings back some value (even if it’s not as much as him pitching).
If you can tell me why the Angels were receiving $150M in TV revenue per year when other, significantly better franchises in as good if not better markets were making sometimes half without saying “Ohtani” I’m all ears.
What are these markets, plural? NY is probably the only market that is arguably “better” than LA.
Did I just wake up from a 30 year long dream, into a world where anyone in the LA market thinks that Anaheim is part of the LA market?
I live in LA proper, and Angels games are blacked out. It’s usually easier and faster to get to an Angels game than a Dodgers game. So uh, yeah.
So…your argument that we should consider Anaheim part of the LA market is that Angels tickets are far easier to get and that there’s so much less traffic on the way to their stadium than the Dodgers’ on game night that it makes up for the greater distance traveled?
Have you heard of the WooSox?
My argument is that I can easily drive there from LA. There are parts of LA that are essentially equidistant from the two stadiums. Their name had Los Angeles in it. Their games are blacked out here. How could they *not* be in the LA market?
I hope we can all agree blackout rules/media market definitions are, at best, anachronistic (and likely obsolete)
Just as the 49ers are San Francisco market despite playing in Santa Clara, the Rangers and Cowboys are the Dallas market despite playing in Arlington, and the Braves are the Atlanta market despite playing in Cobb County, so, too, are the Angels the Los Angeles market.
This argument would hit a lot harder if there were an NFL team in SF or Dallas proper, or an MLB team in Atlanta or Dallas proper.
On the subject of the Rangers…a better analogy would be whether anyone does or should consider the Devils a “New York team.”
Maybe the Hartford Whalers were a “Boston team”?
It’s further from Foxboro to Boston than it is from Anaheim to LA. I guess the Patriots are not a “Boston team”?
The Patriots certainly aren’t a Boston team!
That’s why it would, obviously, be hilariously pathetic for them to call themselves the “Boston Patriots.”
The easiest analogy to the farce of the “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim” would be a team that plays in East Rutherford, NJ calling itself the “New York X.”
…but, of course, the only NFL team that plays in New York is based a few hundred miles north of the city.
West of the city. You seemed so smart for a second.
…
Wait.
…
Please, do go on about Buffalo not being North of NYC.
…
…
I hope to “seem smart” like you, someday.
I do try my best to be kind, so:
Thank you for providing everyone who had and everyone who ever will read this comment section with an object lesson on the meaning of the word “seemed.”
The Devils are an NYC metro area team. Most relevant to this thread about TV markets, their games air on an NYC area RSN (MSG Sportsnet).
Just like the As and Sharks are SF metro area teams!
Still cracking up at the lad “proving” that the Angels are just as much an LA team as the Dodgers by citing how much faster it is to get to drive during rush hour to the Angels’ stadium on a game night.
The Angels’ local TV contract is a 20-year deal that was signed in 2011, 6 years before they signed Ohtani. https://www.nexttv.com/news/fs-west-angels-ink-3-billion-20-year-deal-sources-361182
If a premier DH is worth $30 million which seems reasonable given what people expect Soto to get, then that means Ohtani is getting $400 million for 9 years as a pitcher or about $44 million a year, which is Verlander/Scherzer territory. I don’t think Ohtani has ever been in that class as a pitcher and it seems doubtful he’ll get there now after missing a 2nd full season because of arm trouble.
The off-field benefits seem less meaningful to a team like the Dodgers, they already put 3+ million fannies in the seats, how many more can they add or how much more can they charge? Does he really make the Dodgers more attractive to free agents, I mean they already were a top if not THE top destination.
It feels like an overpay, but I guess the point is the Dodgers can afford to overpay and by doing so they reinforce their status as the gold standard. Just threw up in my mouth writing that last bit….
This is ABSOLUTELY a status thing for the Dodgers to say:
“We don’t give a damn about min-maxing our luxury tax liability while maintaining competitiveness.
“We’re the Dodgers. We take in more than enough money, every fucking year.
“We care about winning championships.”
And fair play to them – Friedman making Henry and Steinbrenner look like punks is great for the players.
Soto might get $33M this year already and $35 aav on his FA contract. So if you give Ohtani’s $36-37M for his offense, you’re only at 36M for pitching.
100% agree with you. I can see this contract looking unattractive in the not distant future, although I think his ability as a hitter will hold pretty well so it won’t be like the Dodgers will get nothing for the $70m per.
The one variable here is how much of that money is deferred and thereby should be discounted some. Might make it significantly less of an overpay.
I’ve seen some numbers thrown around saying Ohtani brought in $10-$20M per year in extra revenue for the Angels and with the Dodgers being a larger brand it will likely be even larger with them. No other player moves the needle like that. It makes this deal make more sense when you consider that.
It’s a lot of dollars! And yes, I have to agree that $/WAR is probably just not the correct framework in which to think about this. I don’t really even think jersey sales (or whatever — I mean directly attributable, immediate revenue gain) can make up the difference either. The right way to think about what “surplus” the Dodgers are buying here is that it’s prestige, bragging rights, star power, whatever you want to call the thing that puts a sports team into the tier of worldwide fame that goes beyond the sport.
On second thought too, I’m not sure on the inflation math, but it seems to me like top-tier superstars’ contracts have been lagging a bit since the early 2000s and this might be putting them back on track.
I think inflation will make this look a lot better in 5 years time.
Also, paying for Ohtani includes not only having him on the Dodgers, but *not* having him on the Padres or Giants.
The top half of the Dodgers lineup is going to be absolutely bonkers.
-Betts
-Freeman
-Ohtani
-Will Smith?
-Muncy?
I suppose the only way it could be more devastating is if they grabbed another right-handed bat who absolutely destroys left-handed pitching (like JD Martinez) and plays an outfield corner (not like JD Martinez). Teoscar Hernandez, maybe. Or a trade for Chas McCormick. Or if you’re looking for someone cheaper, Robbie Grossman. That way, they wouldn’t have to worry about sliding Mookie Betts back to RF when they sit Heyward, and give someone who can play in LF at least some of he time too.
Who needs starting pitchers, anyway?
I bet they will split the R/L hitters at the top:
Ohtani
Betts
Freddie
Smith
Muncy
Ohtani’s OBP/Power combo means he needs to be 3rd.
Looking at it from a money perspective or war I don’t feel like works at all here. Sure that is a large part of the equation, but not all of it
dan literally says that
Yes. And I was echoing it for no reason because I like to hear myself speak
I feel so seen.
shohei doing them a massive favor taking like half of the contract in deferred money. good for him and the dodgers man, this is gonna be awesome for the business of the entire sport
Ohtani making sure the top line number is $700M is raising the bar for every other MLBer. Regardless of the structure, 700 is 700. No, Juan Soto isn’t going to suddenly get $701M next year, but if the question was “will he get $400M?” yesterday, today it’s “Who will give him $500M?”
The answer to that is “Those who understand the time value of money and will negotiate similar deferrals”. Hate to break it to you but all sides in these situations, even the players themselves, understand that a dollar in hand is better than a dollar tomorrow.
Even without deferring a penny, inflation over a ten year period significantly cuts into the actual value compared to the perceived value.
This is not an argument against considering this a monster contract. It clearly is the most awesome by any measure. Just don’t go overboard on how much of a leap it was (at least until the deferral details are known).
This contract goes to show you how wealthy the state of California is, not to mention Los Angeles….the rich get richer.
How will the Rocket City Trash Pandas compete? (Clutches pearls to chest)
Can we all agree to call the Astr*s the “Rocket City Trash Pandas,” now that Dusty’s retired?
IDK, pandas are kind of cute.
I wonder how much state tax rates go into how players evaluate contracts. Since California’s tax rates are far more progressive than, say, Texas’, I wonder if player say “the Giants’ offer of 100m gives me less than The Stros’ offer of 95m…”
Feels like the biggest determiner of how this contract will end up looking is just how much Ohtani can stay healthy.
Rare instance of me finding this out within an hour or so; if Ohtani pitches he’s far and away the best player in the league and presumably the bidding war was high; if he doesn’t pitch I guess it all hinges on merchandising; May the Schwartz be with the Dodgers.
It’s crazy to think that, had he not blown his arm out, that number would be even higher. Wow.
I was on the treadmill earlier when I got the notification of his signing, I damn near fell off.
I am skeptical that him blowing out his arm had much effect at all, mostly because I cannot comprehend a contract that close to a billion dollars.
I mean, yeah, good point. I have trouble comprehending it as well. With that said, the Dodgers committed $700 mill to him knowing that he may never be the same pitching wise – there’s a nonzero chance of that. I’d imagine he would earn more coming off a 180+ IP season with a clean bill of health.
The fact that LA committed 700m to him knowing he may never be the same as a pitcher is ballsy, to put it mildly. But I hope he succeeds, because he’s doing what none of us have ever witnessed – and he’s so damn fun to watch play baseball.
Shoutouts to Oakland and Baltimore
Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay fairly close to 70 mil payroll as well
I’m really surprised that even with him sitting out 2024 as a pitcher, ZiPS projects his future value as greater on the mound than at the plate.
Pitchers are much more valuable than DHs is the very simple answer.
It is a bit silly to compare the value of a generic pitcher to that of a generic DH when pitcher Ohtani has been more valuable than DH Ohtani exactly once during his six seasons in MLB.
When somebody is surprised that Austin Gomber is projected better than Josh Hader, the very simple answer might be ‘starting pitchers are more valuable than relievers’, but it does nothing to address the main underlying issue, which is the fact that Hader has been better than Gomber the past X years for any X.
I’ll take the over on the offensive projection. He was insanely good last year, with statcast data to back it up.
Yep – the young man has gotten better EVERY. GOSHDANG. YEAR.
Hot diggity dog.
And he may have a future contract beyond the 10 years
Those Tokyo to LA flights just got busier for April (and probably all the way through Sep). I am guessing a nice Dodger ticket price increase for groups (especially if they can price discriminate against foreign groups).
At $50mm a year I was thinking it would be hard for that contract to not pay for itself, especially in LA/SF/SEA. Ichiro brought 25-30,000 Japanese tourists a year to Seattle. I am guessing Ohtani will bring 40-50,000 Japanese tourists a year to LAD games (they presumably were already going to Angels games so LA region does not get a huge boost). Those additional 50,000 tickets at say $300 a pop is $15mm added revenue a year to LAD from ticket sales alone. If LAD local tv rights have escalators then that will added revenue there too.
In fairness – it’s likely not about extra tickets sold so much as the ability to use the increased ticket demand to justify price rises…towards which fans will have a hard time objecting, given that the Dodgers just signed SHOHEI FREAKING OHTANI
“It’s about more than just his on field value, it’s about how much revenue he generates for the team.” Ok, but he generates that revenue because he’s the best player in the game and does it in a historic way. If that ever changes, won’t that number go down? How much more than his on field value was he worth from 2018-2020? If he does what ZiPS thinks I don’t think he keeps generating the kind of excess revenue he has the last three years.
It would’ve been funny if the entire article was “Holy. Crap”
At $115,000 per plate appearance, I guess if he strikes out four times in a game he gets a platinum sombrero.
A) He turns 39 in the final year of this contract. I am surprised the contract is not for more years.
B) Why is it so high? The Dodgers intend on cashing in on his marketability in Japan? Were the Angels doing that? If not, why not? The Dodgers are much more marketable as a much more iconic team which has been a constant contender for most of this century. And LAD has got to be very popular in Japan because of Nomo.
I mean:..on both counts, it’s pretty clear that the Dodgers aren’t trying to play games.
Which is why they won.
I was at an A’s game vs. the Angels this past season. Most people were there to see Ohtani. When he jogged by the crowd, he looked up and waved, for a half second. The crowd went bananas. A half second. He’s approaching mythological status.
If he ever has to give up pitching I’m not sure you can just make him an outfielder. There’s still a lot of throwing in the OF. What’s the injury that would leave him unable to pitch but still able to cork off throws from deep right? And even if it was more precautionary, say have him stop pitching after a third TJ, would you want to risk losing his bat by playing him in the field?
Answer is to put him in left, haha!
And position-player TJ *is* far rarer than that for pitchers – if he can pick it out there, let him.
You probably only move him to OF after serious arm trouble and if he’s had arm trouble serious enough to end his pitching career would you really want him making throws from the OF? You would be risking a career ending injury at that point.
For an athlete like Ohtani?
He’d just move to 1B and immediately be great at it.
Ohtani would probably just switch to a southpaw and become the next Kershaw.
If he has to quit pitching because of injury issues, it’s unlikely that he will physically be unable to throw, more that he is unable to pitch at a major league level. If he can only consistently throw 90 or can’t spin his breaking pitches or his command takes a step back, any of those would probably end his pitching career. But, they wouldn’t be an issue for an outfielder. The average throw from RF last year was 90.9 MPH and that is usually with a crow hop. The difference between having the arm to be an MLB pitcher and an MLB outfielder is massive, especially for someone who doesn’t have pinpoint command.
YUP.
As talented as he is, maybe he could learn to make OF throws left-handed.
I’ll go on record: Three years from now this will be widely accepted as the worst/most underwater contract in baseball.
You may be correct about the perspective, but nobody on the forum will have access to the actual value of the contract since none of us know how much money the Dodgers will benefit from the marketing of Ohtani!
That said, I’ll upvote and join you in a negative take on this contract. The ZiPS calculation is 36 fWAR. I’ll go on record: I’ll take the under.
( Who cares. In 10 years, nobody will remember these posts.)
Setting a reminder on my work calendar!
(To a job at which I will quit or be fired within six months…)
700 million for a DH. Because at this point, that’s what he is. From a purely baseball perspective, this is the worst contract of all time. He’s had two TJ’s, and unless he is actually a god (he isn’t), the idea that he’ll come back and be a Cy Young candidate is….well, optimistic, at best. Foolhardy is probably the right word.
The only way to justify this contract is to understand how much fucking money every MLB owner makes every year.
It’s definitely trickier, if you think that the lies which they publicly say that are immediately and irrevocably proven to be lies each year aren’t lies.
Or were we not supposed to say that?
Zero chance Juan Soto takes home >=$700M next offseason.
Unless he decides to take up pitching, and is immediately brilliant!
I remember Hideki Matsui attracting a lot of Japanese fans to the Yankees. However, I wonder if Ohtani’s impact on bringing in new fans might be a bit offset by virtue of a lot of Japanese fans already followed the Dodgers because of their history and because if Hideo Nomo.
It could also be multiplicative.
And we won’t know until the season!
Nobody last played for the Dodgers 20 seasons ago. A lot of the ‘new fans’ you’re talking about weren’t born. (Given that we’re talking about a 10-year contract, some of them still aren’t.)
The only good thing about him becoming a Dodger is at least he is not a Yankee. the game clearly has two evil empires nowadays!
Dodgers start the 2024 regular season against the Padres in South Korea.
Excellent article Dan. For the Dodgers this is as much a business decision as a baseball decision. The Dodgers should have spread the $700 million over a 15 year contract to lower the AAV even further.
If only you knew how right you were…
Remember the cover of Inside Sports with Nolan Ryan being the first $1M player?
It’s entirely possible that the contract is an overpay in terms of on field performance while simultaneously making the Dodgers a profit. Ohtani is unique enough in his fame that both could be true.