Shohei Ohtani Is a Dodger

Baseball’s version of Lebron James’ The Decision appears to have come to pass, with all-universe talent Shohei Ohtani announcing on his Instagram that he has found a new home in Los Angeles, this time with the Dodgers. The deal is for 10 years and $700 million.

While the full details of the contract’s “unprecedented” deferrals aren’t yet known, 10 years and $700 million is the mega-contract of all mega-contracts, besting the previous record by hundreds of millions of dollars. And like the Alex Rodriguez signing more than two decades ago, this will likely be the record for a while, including a possible Juan Soto deal next winter.

I doubt I have to describe just how good Ohtani, but ZiPS projects him to be in the MVP race most years that he’s healthy. And while his 2024 season won’t feature any trips to the mound, there are still another nine years on the contract!

The value of baseball stars is very largely tied to the perceived effects of teams winning games. When Andrew Zimbalist examined this question in Baseball and Billions, he found that very few players really drove revenue for teams beyond their on-field contributions. The exceptions — where baseball fame transcends the simple act of winning baseball games — are few and far between. Think Fernando Valenzuela when Fernandomania struck Los Angeles 40 years ago, an example Zimbailst pointed to. Or Nolan Ryan in the twilight of his career, or Cal Ripken Jr. breaking Lou Gehrig’s consecutive games played record, or the great home run race of 1998 between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Ohtani is that kind of player, in a way that other recent greats like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are and were not.

Now, as a result of the surgery that will keep him from pitching next year, ZiPS sees Ohtani as more of a $300 million – $400 million player. But here’s the thing: You can simply ignore that number. ZiPS is a generalized model; it isn’t really equipped to deal with special situations. And Ohtani is more than a special situation. He’s an event, capable of capturing the attention of fans across this country and the rest of the world just by taking the field. His baseball value may be $300 million – $400 million, but the Dodgers are surely looking past that to all the ways he can make their franchise the franchise for Ohtani fans (and make them a lot of money in the process).

My colleague Michael Baumann will have a more extensive reaction piece up soon.