Simulating a Season with the Ken Phelps All-Stars

On Wednesday, I unveiled the 2018 Ken Phelps All-Star team, in what I hope will be the first in an annual series. Now, thanks to the indefatigable Sean Dolinar, we know how this team would fare were it somehow actually assembled.

First, some explanation. Because this is a team of Quad-A players, the middle relievers and backup position players required to fill out an entire roster have just been projected as replacement-level contributors. As a result, this team would be getting, for example, 314 innings of replacement-level pitching by guys I didn’t mention. Secondly, I allocated playing time based loosely on platoons where appropriate and with additional days off for injury-prone guys. (Slade Heathcott, I’m looking at you.) So, with those qualifications in mind, to the numbers.

If the Ken Phelpses, as assembled, were to take the field for the 2018 season, Steamer projects them to produce a 57-105 record. That is, as they say, putrid. But if a replacement-level team – a team of entirely replacement level players – would win between 45 and 48 games, that means this team is comfortably above replacement level even composed of freely available talent. That’s pretty significant, for a couple of reasons.

First, it shows that these players do have something to offer. We’ve seen this already, with guys like Richard Rodriguez thriving in the Pittsburgh bullpen and Brandon Snyder getting another shot at the big leagues (and then getting DFA’d) just since I wrote my original piece. But what’s also significant is that, basically, all of these guys combined are one Mike Trout above replacement level. Mike Trout is awesome, you guys. He is as good as the entire Ken Phelps team put together. If the Ken Phelpses played Mike Trout – just Mike Trout – the talent on each side would be even. Just think about that for a moment. I’ll wait.

The Phelpses are projected to score 597 runs and give up 827 runs, which is awful. But it’s not as awful as you think. The 2017 San Francisco Giants went 64-98, scored 639 runs, and allowed 776 runs. That’s pretty close to the Phelpses. The Phelpses are well clear of the worst team in our lifetimes, the 2003 Tigers, who went 43-119, scored 591 runs, and allowed 928 runs. That 2003 Tigers team, by the way, had guys like prime Dmitri Young, Craig Monroe, and Carlos Pena on offense, and Jeremy Bonderman in their starting rotation. But the Phelpses are also projected as better than more run-of-the-mill bad teams like the 2002 Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who went 55-106 and scored 673 runs against 918 runs allowed. The pitching on this team, even with 300-plus replacement level innings, is still a relative strength. Relative, I say, because it’s a strength relative to teams like the 2002 Devil Rays and 2003 Tigers, which featured among the worst big-league pitching staffs of all time. But they are better, so it’s safe to say there is some talent there.

The offense, on the other hand, is a different story. Dustin Garneau projects at a 70 wRC+. Steamer doesn’t quite know what to make of Jamie Romak. Dean Anna is projected at a 63 wRC+. Mitch Walding is projected at a 59 wRC+. You get the idea — the hitters are bad. But Steamer might be buying into the labels. Romak’s Korea sojourn might change him a la Eric Thames. Dean Anna draws walks anywhere. Slade Heathcott still has the tools. There’s reason to believe Steamer underrates the offense. They won’t be league average, but they could be useful. The Bat thinks Jabari Blash could be almost league average, at a 94 wRC+, on the back of his light-tower power. And late arrivals like Brandon Snyder can get misjudged by the projection systems; just look at Steve Pearce.

And that’s the whole point of this exercise, really. We’re not looking for stars, really. But the Ken Phelps All-Stars could, within the error bars, catch the White Sox, projected at 66-96. In fact, the White Sox are projected to give up more runs than Ken Phelps, 846 to 827. The Phelpses, in other words, would not be the worst at everything. It is, in fact, possible to build a viable major-league team out of Quad-A players and spare parts. And so long as that’s true, there are still inefficiencies to conquer. There’s no reason why any of the Phelpses’ outfield shouldn’t be playing over Paulo Orlando in Kansas City. Dean Anna is better than Alcides Escobar, I’d wager. Jabari Blash should be playing in Miami. If this exercise proved anything, it’s that the presence of “freely available talent” still remains.