Smoak Time
In general, it’s not a great idea to react to early season slumps and make rash decisions about who should play and who should not. The numbers are all still small samples, and we should generally expect players to perform about the same as we did when spring training ended, regardless of how they’ve played so far.
However, there are teams that should make some changes, and one in particular stands out. Down in Texas, it’s time for them to make a change at first base.
Chris Davis is, once again, struggling at the plate. This isn’t new, as he posted a .311 wOBA last year. He’s tried to increase his contact rate to cut down on the strikeouts, but it’s coming at the cost of his power, as he has yet to hit a home run. Davis doesn’t do enough other things well to be a valuable player without the longballs, and he’s still got a decent amount of work to do if he’s going to become a good big league hitter.
The Rangers can’t afford to let him work out his problems in Arlington, however, not when they have a viable alternative hanging out in Triple-A. Justin Smoak, one of the game’s premier prospects, is just terrorizing PCL pitching, hitting .326/.500/.587. As a stark contrast to Davis, Smoak has drawn 16 walks and struck out just 6 times in his 62 plate appearances so far.
Smoak has a really good approach at the plate, and while he doesn’t have Davis’ raw power, he puts the bat on the ball enough to drive the ball into the gap with regularity. With the Rangers offense scuffling, they could use Smoak’s ability to get on base. Davis may yet turn into a quality big league first baseman, but the Rangers are in a pennant race, and they can’t dig too big of a hole early in the season.
Texas’ best line-up includes Smoak at first base. Already three games back in the AL West and losers of six in a row, it’s time for them to make the move.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Nice post Dave. However, I do wish the title was “Smoak em if you got em”
Or “Smoak and mirrors”
They’re saving that one for when one of his stats is deceptive, or seems deceptive but is actually legit.
And when/if he gets injured:
“Smoak Break”
And if he runs up great numbers on first being called up
“Where There’s Smoak…”
Really, this guy is a headline writer’s dream. The guys at the newspapers around Arlington must be salivating, when they’re not worrying about their jobs.
“Where there’s Smoak, there’s fired Chris Davis taking his place in AAA.”
Wow. That has a nice ring to it. It’s catchy . . . like Blur’s “Song 2.”
Or “Smoak Rings” like the phone rings when you call him up…
“Smoaky and the Backbit”
OK, I have no idea what that might insinuate, at least not without a little help from Marv Albert.
I think Wyatt Earp said it best..
“You skin that Smoak Wagon and we’ll see what happens”
I was thinking “Smoak signals”
The Rangers offense seems to have done pretty well the last few games against Red Sox starting pitching.
Which may say more about Red Sox starting pitching at the moment. Certainly it would help if the Red Sox pitcher/catchers were capable of throwing out a racing tortoise. At this point I think Oprah could steal second at Fenway without breaking a sweat.
That’s sure not because of Davis.
Their recent 3 game series against NYY skews it, I think, but nobody else is scoring off them, either.
Smoak on the water – for me.
Why start is service time clock this early when clearly the Mariners are going to run away with the AL West.
Uh….. right. Even Mariners fans like Dave don’t think that, though I’m sure they hope the Rangers follow your line of thinking.
Smoak has a .6e5 OPS against from the right side. That’s going to have to improve if they want to avoid a platoon.
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi
There’s a law that this can only be raised with respect to Ike Davis.
Let’s see…
Smoak, versus minor leaguers in 130 AB: 15 BB, 25 K
Davis, versus major league LHP in 217 AB: 11 BB 85 K
I know where my bet is.
(Sorry, that’s versus minor league LHP for Smoak)
Forget Justin Smoak, it is Derek Holland time.
+1
Get him back in there already!!
this article should’ve been posted on 4/20.
That is so right on man.
He, like, totally meant to do that. He just, you know, really really needed to get something to eat. Sorry about that, dude.
Let’s not forget Cheech and Chong – Justin “Up in” Smoak
I was thinking something simple, such as “Time for a Smoak”.
Or something more complicated: “Rangers Say ‘Can We Bum a Smoak?’ Off Triple-A”.
My vote is for the Smoak Monster – LOST reference.
Funny, Rob Neyer voted for that one about half an hour ago, too.
Weak! Fortunately I’m on record proposing that and even photoshopping up something *last year* (Apr 23 2009):
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/4/23/850111/4-23-milb-thread#
Fair enough.
My vote is for people to get over his name. Of course, I’m jaded, since at Rangers sites we’ve been through this already long ago.
Fair point. You know Sportscenter is going to go nuts with this when he’s mashing for the Rangers though, right? I hope you’re prepared for that.
Smoak Alarm
No Smoaking
Smoak Grenade
Evan Grant just reported on twitter than Smoak is coming up to replace Chris Davis.
You’re welcome, Rangers fans. I take full credit for this move.
Yeah WTF dude? The only possible conclusions are 1) Fangraphs has infiltrated the Rangers organization or 2) The Rangers organization is making decisions based on the latest Fangraphs stories.
Either way well done. Seriously that is impressive.
Or
3) This was a pretty obvious move, and the Rangers are run by smart people.
Go with #3. My post was totally in jest. The Rangers didn’t need to read FanGraphs to figure out that Justin Smoak was ready.
Wow. Crazy timing.
Projections for Smoak?
.271/.351/.481 w/ 19 HR in 450 PA.
I didn’t look at Smoak’s stats. That’s MLB average for a 1B in 2009. As a rookie 1B, he’s probably not that good, but Arlington is friendly, so I’ll be lazy and predict it washes out.
Long term, at the plate, I think Smoak has Texeira as a ceiling and Milton Bradley as a floor. Indeed, given an injured history, I wonder how much the latter is a solid comp. He’s a 1B, but I think he might be a pretty good one.
Are you comping to Bradley as a LH or Bradley as a RH?
Justin Smoaks Pole in Walk Off.
Smoakin’!
I’m seriously thinking about dropping Peavy for Smoak. I simply just don’t see Peavy turning it around and would be willing to take the chance on Smoak. Thoughts?
I wouldn’t do that. You don’t have anyone else on your roster that you can drop? The WS have a solid history of improving pitchers as the year goes on. They have a very underrated pitching coach and I’d bet Peavy is doing something wrong mechanically. Also if you look “inside” Peavy’s numbers last year you’ll see that when he did pitch, it was at an elite level. I fully support picking up Smoak as I feel he is a legitimate 4 category star, but not at the expense of Peavy.
And there it is!
Yahoo Fantasy Sports Homepage: “Smoak signals”
I guess Rangers coaches read Fangraphs.