Someone Should Sign Lorenzo Cain
(Photo: Keith Allison)
With Austin Jackson reaching a two-year deal on Monday to play center field for the Giants, another potential landing spot for Lorenzo Cain has evaporated.
Typically, in the free-agency era, impact up-the-middle talents like Cain are not available on January 23rd. A year ago to the day, all of Dave Cameron’s top-19 free agents had signed. As of this January 23rd, just eight of his top 20 have found a home.
Cain is coming off a four-win season. Even with his injury issues, he ranks 21st in position-player WAR since 2015 (13.1). J.D. Martinez, by comparison, ranks 42nd in WAR during that same period. Martinez reportedly has a five-year offer on the table, though. We’re unaware of such interest in Cain. There is a case to be made that Cain is the best remaining positional free agent available and that he’s quickly becoming the best bargain.
Part of the fear with Cain is how a speed-dependent player will age. The Michael Bourn, Carl Crawford, and Jacoby Ellsbury and signings did not happen too long ago.
FanGraphs alum and MLB dot com stalwart Mike Petriello has noted the concern but also pointed out that, because Cain is starting from such a high floor, it should be less of a concern.
While it’s true that Cain will be 32 in April and that speed tends to peak early, he’s starting from such a high place — in the top 4 percent of speed, according to Statcast’s Sprint Speed, similar to Trea Turner — that even some age-based decline should still allow him to be a plus defender. But where? And how much would he help on defense? We can investigate.
Here’s a chart from Baseball Savant illustrating sprint speed by position. Note Cain’s place on the far right.
Cain is hardly a legs-only player. Since 2015, he owns a .299/.356/.445 slash line and 118 wRC+. Cain might also be getting better in some capacities as an offensive performer. Last season, he posted a career-low strikeout rate (15.5%) and career-best walk rate (8.4%). His out-of-zone swing rate (30.4%) has declined by five percentage points from his 2014-2015 levels.
Before he left for the Padres, Dave ranked Cain as his No. 2 free agent bargain.
And while Cain does get a lot of his value from his speed, he’s not a Dyson-esque slap hitter. His exit velocity measurements are almost identical to Buster Posey‘s. Of the 100 hitters who had at least 400 batted balls tracked by Statcast in 2017, Cain’s 89.2 mph average exit velocity ranked 22nd, tying him with Edwin Encarnacion, one spot behind George Springer. This isn’t a guy to whom you can just throw fastballs and get away with it.
With Carlos Santana off the board, with prices typically lower after the New Year than before it, Cain is now likely the No. 1 bargain in free agency.
The crowd and Dave each projected a four-year deal worth $68 million for Cain. But since no free agent has yet to sign a deal greater than three years, since deals signed after the New Year were 25% below the FanGraphs crowdsourced dollar predictions (compared to 4% above the predictions before it) from 2013 to -17, since there seems to be a lack of market for Cain, there stands a good chance that Cain can be signed for three years or less.
FanGraphs projects Cain to produced 3.3 wins in 2018. With a win worth roughly $9 million on the open market, Cain projects to create significant surplus value in the early part of a potential deal.
So who could use Cain? The following chart examines all the teams FanGraphs projects to produce less than two wins above replacement in center field.
| Rank | Team | WAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royals | -0.2 |
| 2 | White Sox | -0.2 |
| 3 | Giants | 0.6 |
| 4 | Brewers | 0.9 |
| 5 | Tigers | 1.0 |
| 6 | Reds | 1.3 |
| 7 | Nationals | 1.4 |
| 8 | Rangers | 1.5 |
| 9 | Padres | 1.7 |
| 10 | Indians | 1.7 |
| 11 | Athletics | 1.9 |
| 12 | Mariners | 1.9 |
The list, of course, contains a number of non-contenders who figure to have little interest. Had the Indians not picked up Michael Brantley’s club option, there might be a case to be made for Cleveland, but Brantley and Bradley Zimmer, who was so promising as a rookie in 2017, figure to open in left and center.
The Nationals could perhaps upgrade the position but they can also probably win their division without doing anything, and catcher remains a glaring need.
Perhaps the most interesting fit would be the Brewers. The Brewers have the motivation to try and close the projected gap between themselves and the Cubs and Cardinals, and/or contend for Wild Card berth. There hasn’t been a Cain update at MLB Trade Rumors since Jan. 4, but on that day The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Brewers had Cain on their radar. While I was among those on the Keon Broxton bandwagon in 2016, it’s fair to wonder if he will ever make enough contact to be a positive offensive contributor.
There is also a case to be made for the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Braves, or Rockies finding a spot for Cain. While none of these hopeful contenders possess a glaring vacancy in center field, they rank 26th, 28th, 29th, and 30th, respectively in projected left-field WAR. While the Braves will not want to block Ronald Acuna they could perhaps still accommodate Cain, and there is a case to be made for some of these aforementioned clubs playing Cain in left or shifting a current center fielder to left.
Cain can help some club. He can probably help some club quite a bit in the short term. Cain was already top the value play remaining among position players in free agency, and that status might only be strengthening. Cain is still a star-level talent. Someone ought to sign Lorenzo Cain.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
I doubt the Braves get Cain, but there’s no block there. Cain can play left, Acuna can play right, and Markakis can play on the Fangraphs softball team.
What about the deal they gavethe lefty leadoff ? cannot remember his right nown. Even tho he is a favorite. Jeebus, great defender low K rate guy?
And the company has broken a plate? I don’t remember what my rights are. Even if the lover. Jeebus, good defensive player at a slow speed in K?Join the discussion
Must be a Diamondbacks fan who would like to forget that the Inciarte trade ever happened.
Pirates could always pay up and keep Marte in LF 😉
get that win projection back into the 80s in striking distance of the Rockies, Mets, Dbacks, and Giants
Gets them back most of the Cutch performance and they keep the trade returns. Would look good with the fans. Even better on a two year deal. Four? Not so much.
i would understand not wanting to block Meadows… but there’s a point where it’d have to make sense.
i just want them to spend more than 80 million and improve on a position where theyre bad, to be honest. Lucroy, Cain, Gomez, Machado. i dont care haha.
They arent THAT far behind the 2nd WC.
Meadows isn’t that great. He hit .250 in AAA last year and is having health issues
For the pirates it’s probably about not losing a draft pick and the approximately $2M in draft money.
It would be much better if it got them back into the late 80s with Bonds and company.
I’m sure Dave Cameron is doing his best to get him on the Pads
Much better fit than Hosmer.
Cheaper, too.
He’s 3.5 years older than Hosmer. If the plan is to land a star on a 5-7 year deal that’ll carry into the Padres next window, Cain doesn’t make much sense. I don’t buy into Hosmer, personally, but Cain seems even less likely.
The idea with Cain at SD would be a much shorter contract (2-3years) and he might make them Semi-respectable.
Unlikely IMO.
Cain is a good player, but he relies on a high BABIP. His career BABIP is .344. He is a ground ball machine: 1.54 GB/FB ratio over his career- though he also hits a lot of line drives (22.5%). He doesn’t offer much power (.131 career ISO), so much of his value is tied up in a high BABIP, good defense and good baserunning- none of which sustain well as players move into early 30s.
Cain has already seen both his defense and baserunning fall off dramatically in the past several years- his defense and baserunning runs from 14 & 15 more than doubled his output from 16 & 17.
Cain is almost certainly the best remaining position player on the FA and should be able to get paid market value for his projected WAR- but, turning 32 in April, his signature would hardly be a coup for anyone. The Padres wouldn’t have much reason to pay FA rates for a 32 year old declining OF who projects to fall below league-average by 2021.
He’s obviously not a power hitter but if he can consistently get on base and keep up good speed, he would be a great asset at the top of the order.
If the Rockies cannot get an extension in place for Blackmon they should seriously consider Cain. They should anyway as insurance in case Charlie leaves. Not to mention that more PA’s for Cain equals fewer for Parra and Desmond.
And given the size of the outfield at Coors, having multiple guys capable of playing CF roaming around out there would be a great idea.
In 2018, looks like Desmond in LF (and Parra in RF). Your point is well taken about Coors outfield. Desmond and Parra seem decent defenders, but I am hoping that Desmond’s 2017 season was a result of his broken hand and other injuries. If not, Dahl and Tapia seem much more affordable options in LF than Cain. Parra had about an .800 OPS in 400 AB, so my guess is that he is set to replace CarGo in right.
In my ideal world, they sign Cain and trade for Yelich. At least get one of those two.
Parra and Desmond are below-average defenders, even on the corners, and I am not convinced that Tapia is ever going to do enough at the plate to be a regular.
Why are the Giants still on the list at 0.6 WAR? I have been reading that Austin Jackson is projected for about 1.0 WAR or possibly slightly more.
Where have you seen that?
Maybe he/she is referring to the 6 fans that have predicted 2018 stats for Jackson, resulting in 1.3 WAR?
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9848&position=OF
That being said, the Giants number is out of date. The depth chart predictions now show the Giants with 0.8 WAR in center, as opposed to 0.6 in Travis’ chart.
I wonder if Cain is being hurt by the Ghost of Michael Bourn. To be sure, Cain is a better hitter than Bourn was but they’re both CFers who add(ed) a lot of value via defense and baserunning. And Bourn was younger than Cain when he entered free agency and coming off a better year (6.2 WAR vs 4.1).
Fangraphs readers predicted that Bourn would sign for 5 years, 70 million. He ultimately signed for 4/48, with a vesting option. And even that proved to be way too much.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/michael-bourn-joins-indians-roster-of-interest/
The ghost of Michael Bourn and a lot of other fast OFs. How many center fielders in recent memory have remained above-average players past age 32, and how many of them have remained above-average defenders?
The best-case scenario is probably Brett Gardner, who kept his high walk rate and baserunning, while adding a little more power than he had in his youth. Even then, the defensive value has fell off significantly from his elite prime.
Cain has the power, but not quite the same level of plate discipline, and the defensive numbers have shown some decline over the past two years.
Actually if you look at the numbers there’s a good case that speed/defense guys age better into their early to mid 30s than no-D slugger types.
4yrs up to age 31, and the 4yrs after.
(since the 5th yr is just a sweetener anyways).
similars to L.Cain from the last 25yrs or so
Age 28-31
B.Jordan 1863pa, 118wrc+, 17.5war, 6.1war/650
L.Cain 2185pa, 114wrc+, 17.9war, 5.3war/650
M.Cameron 2447pa, 104wrc+, 20.0war, 5.3war/650
D.White 2514pa, 104wrc+, 19.8war, 5.1war/650
K.Lofton 2527pa, 111wrc+, 19.2war, 4.9war/650
I.Suzuki 2954pa, 117wrc+, 21.0war, 4.6war/650
R.Winn 2720pa, 115wrc+, 17.1war, 4.1war/650
C.Granderson 2613pa, 119wrc+, 16.3war, 4.1war/650
A.Soriano 2685pa, 115wrc+, 16.5war, 4.0war/650
S.Victorino 2594pa, 110wrc+, 15.3war, 3.8war/650
J.Ellsbury 2095pa, 100wrc+, 11.7war, 3.6war/650
J.Damon 2782pa, 110wrc+, 13.9war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2246pa, 111wrc+, 10.4war, 3.0war/650
well, “similars” is generous – he’s been better than almost all of them and much better than a bunch of them.
Age 32-35
I.Suzuki 2915pa, 113wrc+, 21.4war, 4.8war/650
J.Damon 2525pa, 116wrc+, 13.3war, 3.4war/650
M.Cameron 2136pa, 113wrc+, 12.5war, 3.8war/650
K.Lofton 2388pa, 103wrc+, 12.0war, 3.3war/650
B.Jordon 2302pa, 105wrc+, 11.8war, 3.3war/650
T.Hunter 2409pa, 120wrc+, 11.2war, 3.0war/650
R.Winn 2552pa, 94wrc+, 11.0war, 2.8war/650
C.Granderson 2214pa, 116wrc+, 10.5war, 3.1war/650
D.White 2011pa, 100wrc+, 9.3war, 3.0war/650
A.Soriano 2081pa, 104wrc+, 7.6war, 2.4war/650
S.Victorino 869pa, 102wrc+, 6.0war, 4.5war/650
J.Ellsbury 1035pa, 95wrc+, 3.6war, 2.3war/650
Seems like most all of them aged very well, actually. A couple guys did get destroyed by injury, but otherwise most of them performed well enough to justify the kind of deal Cain is rumoured to be getting.
The biggest issue for most of those guys was defense–they pretty much all stopped being plus in center field and moved to a corner, except for the truly godly defenders among them.
However, they did seem to remain good offensive players, which is I think part of your point.
but even then they continued to be valuable defensively in a corner OF spot.
I think the Brewers are probably less likely to block Lewis Brinson (and replace Keon Broxton) than Cleveland would to replace Zimmer. It’s true that Zimmer looked pretty good, but Cleveland has a superteam right now and may weight current performance more heavily.
I am surprised to see that the Rangers aren’t mentioned. And to upgrade at catcher, the Nationals would actually have to have a catcher to upgrade with.
(I also don’t think he’s likely to go to the Nationals either, but that is because they’re close to the tax line and Cain isn’t repped by Boras…not because of catcher)
My dark horse sleeper is the Cubs, another potential superteam that has okay but not stellar options in center field.
The problem is that the teams like the Cubs, Brewers, and Cleveland are all likely bargain hunting, so while I think it is likely someone is going to sign Cain, it’s not going to be for a top notch contract. There’s just been a real devaluing of position player free agents lately because only a few teams need a guy at one particular spot, and “need” is sometimes interpreted as “want”.
Cleveland could use him without blocking Zimmer.
Cain is a righty and their entire OF and 1B is lefty.
Right now the rh ABs are scheduled for Diaz, Urshela, and Melvin Upton.
If he would take a 2+1 deal they should grab him.
But at 32 a 4 year deal from a mid market team doesn’t seem likely. Not Cleveland, Not Pittsburgh, not Milwaukee. Maybe SD.
Maybe tbe ChiSox would.
Are the Rangers still trying to win though? They sort of look like they’re quietly starting a rebuild/retool.
I have to think that, in addition to concerns about age-related decline, a lot of teams are being steered away by the QO attached to him. He’s that classic mid-level FA whose value gets destroyed by having a comp pick tied to his free agency.
I have no idea. If I were the Rangers, I’d be following the path you suggest. But if they are trying to keep the wild card in play, he would make sense.
“He’s that classic mid-level FA whose value gets destroyed by having a comp pick tied to his free agency.”
Not sure that’s really true. The rules are very different then before. It used to be that only the first 10 picks in the draft were protected. But now all teams have at least their first pick protected and over half (16) have their first two picks protected. So the penalty for signing one of these players is a lot less severe than what it used to be.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/which-draft-picks-each-team-would-lose-by-signing-a-qualified-free-agent.html
And as a side note, the comp pick isn’t the same as the forfeited pick. The comp pick is what the team that loses the player gains. But it’s not the same pick as what the signing team forfeits.
IMO, the logical catcher upgrade for the Nationals would be working a trade for Realmuto.
I think that Nationals are almost certainly going to be over the tax line in 2018, barring anything wildly inaccurate in the Cot’s numbers. Cot’s estimates that the Nationals are already ~$5 million over the tax line for 2018, and you’d expect that number only to go up for a contender making in-season moves.
He makes so much sense for the Diamondbacks. They have a glaring need in LF, and Pollock is on the last year of his deal, and if he returns to the 5 win player he’s been in the past, there is no way they will be able to resign him.
They’re also on the perfect place on the win curve. With the Brewers, Giants, and Cardinals all pushing for a wild card spot, the Diamondbacks need to keep up if they want to try and return to the postseason.
That makes the most sense to me, too. Maybe they want to leave room in the budget to keep Pollock, and Goldschmidt only has two more years. In 2020, they’ll owe $52M just to Greinke and Tomas, so another $20M to Cain would make it really hard to afford Goldy.
But Cain looks like he’d fit perfectly next to Pollock in either CF or LF. At least in 2018.
Angel Pagan is one of the most similar players to Cain in my memory. Speed, good defense, could hit. Had one mediocre year sandwiched between two great ones. He had a 4.7 WAR in his age 30 season. He had 4.3 WAR in the next 4 years combined. Obviously, because it happened to one player doesn’t mean it will happen to another but there’s a not-insignificant risk for this kind of decline arc. Cain’s baserunning and defense are both declining already. He also will cost a draft pick and international slot money which does factor into some teams decisions. Despite all that, I’d happily take him on a contender for 3/$55 or similar.
I don’t understand why the Blue Jays haven’t been connected to Cain at all during this off-season. I guess it’s possible they just really, really don’t want to give up that comp pick, but man he just seemed like the perfect fit for them.
Instead they’ve signed and traded for approximately 1000 mediocre OFs with potential upside and now have 8 guys, who will all undoubtedly be an upgrade over what they had last year, but it’s also doubtful that any two of those guys will provide as much value as Cain.
For a team that needed upgrades in the OF (as well as SP and backup C) and plans to contend it’s mystifying why Toronto has shown so little interest in Cain. Even a 4 year deal seems unlikely to become an albatross if the AAV is only around $16M.
And the same argument could’ve been made for Cleveland, Arizona and San Francisco (and maybe the Rangers?)
Obviously SF had luxury tax concerns that took them out of the running, Cleveland doesn’t really need him, and I’m not sure the Rangers are actually contending, but it’s still surprising that no team with holes in the OF has so far wanted to sign a guy coming off a 4+ fWAR season.
The Jays have a Gold Glove-worthy CF in Pillar, so paying a premium for Cain’s defense just to stick him in a corner wouldn’t be an efficient use of the team’s (artificially) constrained budget.
Also, I am of the belief that the Jays aren’t actually trying to compete this year – rather, they’re trying to APPEAR to be competing in order to keep up the momentum of their fan base, without spending any real money on players. Which is why signing someone like Granderson for 1/5 or acquiring Grichuk (who’s making $2.6M) fits in with their plans much better than signing Cain for something like 4/64.
Last year it sure seemed to be a fake offseason of pretend contending, but this year they seem to be actually trying to teambuild with legit prime aged controllable pieces with 3+war seasons in their very recent past, and even trading some depth prospects to do it.
Cain always seemed like the ideal fit for the jays this offseason to me, as a corner OF, but with the grichuk/cain adds i’m not sure he’s the best way to upgrade the roster anymore.
Not too sure which transactions have you sold on them trying to compete….all I see is about ~15M spent on middle infield and corner outfield depth, heading into a season where the top 2 teams in the division are projected for 90+ wins and the Angels have made massive upgrades. The Jays’ transactions feel more like moves you make to tread water and hope to be hovering around .500 so you can still sell some tickets in September, rather than really pushing the chips in and making a run at contending….I’m not saying they should go all-in but I think that trading away prospects to make smaller present-oriented moves (like the ones they’ve been making) without augmenting that with bigger splashes does nothing but keep you on the mediocrity treadmill – I would much rather they picked a direction and fully committed to it rather than staying in this weird middle ground they’ve chosen
I don’t think it’s a weird middle ground – they are currently projected to be the best of the AL non-playoff teams this year. Arguably no AL team has a higher premium on adding wins this offseason than the Jays do. IMO they should be trying to compete. But not trading top youth to do so. Unlike last year, when signing Kendrys was such an obvious fan move (dingerz) for a guy who was clearly barely above replacement level, or when they signed a couple vet RP who were obvious attempts at pump’n’dumping at the deadline, this year they’ve gone out and acquired guys with real recent value. And mostly guys in prime age.
Last 4yrs numbers
OF Grichuk (26): 108wrc+, 3.4war/650pa
OF Grandy (37): 115wrc+, 2.9war/650
IF A.Diaz (27): 111wrc+, 2.5war/650pa
UT Y.Solarte (30): 106wrc+, 2.2war/650pa
obviously grandy is old, while he and solarte are platoon guys so can’t be projected for full time use, but these are guys with legit on field value, not just cheapo no upside vet patches like we saw last year.
This is much more reminiscent imo of when the yankees added guys like Didi, Castro, and Hicks during their tweener years.
I hope you’re right….I’m probably being overly cynical about the FO/ownership. That being said, given the market size, attendance numbers, win curve position and FA market conditions, I would still be pretty disappointed if they don’t make any more moves due to budget restrictions….if they’re going to make win-now moves and try extending their window then I want them to really go for it. Not necessarily by trading prospects but at least sign a decent SP – and Chris Tillman doesn’t count haha
Hey I’ve railed against shapkns more than anyone since they got here. This offseason though it finally seems that they’re trying to build instead of just patch.
But I agree – this offseason doesn’t really make sense unless they make more moves. And hopefully one impact move at least. I was all on the Cain train as that impact move, but now that we added these 4 position players, I’m more inclined to think that they should try to make that impact move in the rotation. Cobb?
But if this is all they do this offseason, I’ll agree with you that it’s pretty lacklustre. again.
Yeah i think cobb would be a good move
While the numbers averaged over the last four years per 650 PA look pretty nice — STEAMER/Depth Charts are way under on the playtime.
Adding them straight up from above, that is 11.0 fWAR in 2600 PA [2.8 fWAR/650]
STEAMER
Granderson 357PA/1.0 fWAR
Grichuk 436PA/1.5 fWAR
Solarte 224PA/0.9 fWAR
Diaz 204PA/0.6 fWAR
TOTAL 1221 PA 4.0 fWAR [2.1 fWAR/650]
Depth Charts
Granderson 441PA/ 1.3 fWAR
Grichuk 525PA/1.8 fWAR
Solarte 189PA/ 0.7 fWAR
Diaz 182PA/0.6 fWAR
TOTAL 1337 PA 4.4 fWAR [2.1 fWAR/650]
True. Though I would probably project Grichuk closer to a full season of PA and so about half a war more. (I’m also not quite sure why the projections take away all of Grichuk’s baserunning value this year, fwiw).
I imagine there was definitely talks. Cain’s camp doesn’t seem to be playing the leak game in general, or I’ve missed it. I imagine last week’s move was basically agreeing to disagree.
I figure the Jays gave him a big tire kick, but between sending him to a corner and the money they couldn’t work it out. Their moves last week pretty much took them off the market.
How many Travis & Craig articles a week are going to focus only on ‘teams should be spending more to buy FA?”
It is literally every day with no other topic being discussed. Could you guys maybe write an article that advocates a smart approach- the type of approach that clubs like Houston, LA, Chicago et al are actually taking- i.e. a clever trade, a clever promotion, a cheap FA acquisition, or something other than “team ____ should spend big money to acquire Boras client _____.”
Otherwise, what is tomorrow’s article? “Teams should pay over-value for Mike Moustakas, because …plight of the middle class”
But, shouldn’t teams be spending? Revenue is monstrous, and the percentage of that going to players is probably close to 30% now. Clearly, the money is there. While it may sound ridiculous to pay someone $20M a year to play baseball, is it really? It is also ridiculous to pay $1M a year, or $40M a year. Relative to revenue, yes, teams should be spending on FA.
the question IMO ought to be ‘shouldn’t teams buy wins if they are worth it,’ and the answer is of course.
But no, teams shouldn’t be spending on FAs merely because there is money available, and when agents refuse to sign deals apart from underwater contracts, then teams are right to look for value. The mere fact that clubs have money doesn’t mean they ought to spend on free agency- there are tons of ways to spend money, teams don’t necessarily need to spend in the least effective manner.
Cain is a good player, but consider- there are only 1 team (Giants) that is projected for more than 73 wins who would improve their CF projection by 2 WAR by signing Cain. That team, SF, has ruled out signing FAs attached to draft picks.
The other clubs that Cain would improve by 1.4-1.9 WAR are all projected at .500 or worse besides the Nationals- who have a younger CF (Taylor) coming off of a 3+ WAR season, plus Robles and Turner.
Therefore, what team ‘ought’ to sign Cain? The best argument seems to be SF or Washington- as Cain doesn’t improve any other teams projected above .500 by more than 1.3 WAR. But Washington doesn’t really need Cain- so probably only SF ‘ought’ to acquire Cain, but they have ruled it out.
Giving up a draft pick plus $15-20m over 3-4 years, for a 32 declining player, is simply not the sort of move smart organizations are prioritizing. Why can’t fangraphs write more articles on smart moves instead of the same dumb moves that Buster Olney and Jim Bowden encourage? Why not an article on the next break out player, which teams ought to target the next Michael Taylor, the next Jose Martinez, the next Charlie Morton, etc?
Craig & Travis write on almost nothing other than the theme that teams need to spend more in free agency on non-stars- without even competently using the data to demonstrate which team should acquire a FA at what amount.
The Giants still are looking for a center fielder, though likely via trade… unless Cain’s price drops far enough to make the luxury tax plus loss of picks worth it to them.
It’s worth mentioning that Cain could also fill a corner OF spot if a team is solid in CF and he’d be a good addition there as well.
Give Cain the 4th year, or trade prospects for Yelich?
I want someone other than definite candidates to sign guys like Cain, Arrieta, etc. Pirates, Orioles, Brewers can challenge contenders if they add some pieces. For baseball sake, don’t give up before season starts.
The Giants are still very much in the hunt here. GM Bobby Evans said that he saw Jackson “adding depth at all 3 outfield positions” and did not suggest he’d be an everyday CF. Signing Jackson can also be seen as improving their leverage in conversations with Cain.
They have Pence who missed 28, 56 and over 100 games the last 3 seasons and McCutchen who is durable but aging. Duggar and Slater might not be ready, and they’ve shown a clear willingness to go all-in in their pursuit of Stanton. Getting Cain on a 3-year deal would line up well with all their core talent.
And put them $10 million or so over the CBT. And add to their regrettable pool of aging talent over 30.
A bit of a problem, I think. Not a huge upside from the point of view of the FO.
The thing with the Giants is that they’re already pushed in so far on the short-term, with a cliff looming a few years out, that doubling down on the short-term actually does make a lot of sense of them. That’s only more so since they look to have enough revenue to push payroll up more. And, thinking for the longer-term, they’ll probably have a bad baseball team for a few years in the early 2020’s, but they’ll also lower payroll as contracts for aging players run off. It looks like in a few years they’ll be in Phillies mode as a rebuilding big-market team that isn’t maximizing annual revenue but is still making plenty of money because the payroll is pretty low.
Putting some numbers to this one, in 2020 the Giants already have ~$120 million committed to seven aging players: Cueto, Posey, Samardzija, Melancon, Crawford, and Longoria. The farm system was poorly-ranked, and they’ve weakened it even more in the trades for Longoria and McCutchen.
So I can see the logic of signing Cain and going over the CBT with the idea that the potential window is short, very likely just 2018-19, and that a 3 or 4 year contract for Cain expires not long after the team would like it to expire.
I suppose the other route of scraping by just under the CBT for 2018 is that they want to re-set penalties, because the Giants also reached the 50% luxury tax level in 2017. The other part of that idea could be to try to sign Harper or Kershaw after 2018, pushing in a lot for 2019, and then evaluate the team after 2019 on what to do with Bumgarner hitting free agency. A problem I see with that path is that even with Harper or Kershaw plus Bumgarner they could very well have a really expensive non-playoff team in 2020 and 2021. Harper and Kershaw would presumably also see that looming issue, which might make it tough to sign either of them (though maybe that concern is finessed with player opt-outs early in a contract).
Why would a team spend money on a contract where upwards of 40% of it will be sunk cost by its end?
I’m struggling with the math here.
The premise is that Cain might be available at LESS than the estimated amounts. Let’s pick Dave’s projection at 4/$68 (or $17MM/year) as our example.
Cain is projected at 3.3 fWAR. Standard age regression of 0.5 each season puts him at 10.2 fWAR over 4 years. Using the $9M assumption per WAR (and not factoring in increases for cost/WAR) he would be expected to produce something like $92M in value. Overall it’s a $25M surplus. Even in his last year the contract projects to be basically market rate. Very rare for any longer term FA signing.
Now, throw in the assumption that you can maybe land Cain for 3 years due to the market being suppressed. Risk goes way down. You project $75M in value while only outlaying $51M. Nice surplus. Or if he signs for less than the AAV – say he now goes for 4/$60M his surplus soars to $32M.
Cain represents one of the “safest” FA expenditures on the market. Sure – the deal could go south. Just like any deal. But baking in even aggressive aging curves, he still feels like a bargain. The only way you lose 40% of your investment is if Cain signs for far more than everyone anticipates AND he suffers significant performance reduction.
Agreed, but two things
(1) the pick
(2) and while I’d trust Dave and the crowd estimate over my sense of market value, their assessment for Cain struck me as pretty light.
Admittedly, Dave/Crowd may be spot on, as Bruce Levine of Inside the Clubhouse reported current offers around 3/$45M. At that price I’d agree most clubs should be interested, as that would make Cain and Cozart the ‘big-money-but-still-bargain’ prizes of the top of the FA market.
Even so, it wouldn’t be odd for Cain to get a better deal than 3/$60, even 4/$80m: as he’s better than Santana (3/$60), is the same age, and plays a position higher on the defensive spectrum. At that point, and including the pick, he is $0-20m surplus, still not bad.
In previous posts I’ve failed to appreciate just how cheap Cain might be, and also perhaps how many teams have holes at corner OF positions. A 3 year deal would project a smart upgrade for a number of good teams- he has the 12th highest OF projected WAR/600.
Unless a team has a glaring need in center, it is difficult to justify the costs for a somewhat better position in a multi-way race for the second wild card. This probably rules out every AL team except KC.
The Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks and (even now) Giants are at least ok fits, but the first three are likely waiting on other deals. The Giants may be trying to clear luxury tax space through trades or perhaps deciding they will just pay the tax – a Melanconundrum if you will.
Someone should sign many of these free agents, but there has to be a two specific someones in a pool of thirty with sufficient demand for it to happen promptly. This requires either a fortunate roster fit, an unusually young free agent such as Hosmer, or a large number of teams with a high marginal value for an extra two wins in 2018. A lack of competitive races shrinks the likelihood of the third dramatically.
The Rangers should sign Lorenzo Cain! DeSheilds is stretched as an everyday player, team has committed to trying to contend w/ Beltre, and they can flip Cain next year if Beltre/Andrus head elsewhere and want to start a youth movement. Taveras should be ready for CF in 2 years, mitigating any concerns over Cain’s diminishing speed/range. Their flirtations with Gomez indicate they are still looking for a CF upgrade, so why not aim for the top?
Seems like the Royals could have Cain and Moustakas back for the price of Eric Hosmer, if they really want to retain someone.
They didn’t compete last year with all 3 of them. Three compensation picks would be better for KC right now.
I agree, but they’ve made noise that they would like to re-sign one of them.
“But since no free agent has yet to sign a deal greater than three years”
This is not a good reasoning why Cain can be signed for three years or less.
If you look at all the free agent signings so far, they have been more or less in line with Dave and/or the crowd’s projection.
Specifically looking at 3 year deals,
Santana was projected at AAV $18M/4 years and AAV $15M/3 years respectively.
He got AAV $20M/3 years somewhere in between the two.
Davis was projected at AAV $17M/4 years and AAV $15M/4 years respectively.
He got $17.3M/3 years with a vesting/mutual option of $15M/1 year, again somewhere in between the two.
Cozart was projected at AAV $13M/3 years and AAV $15M/4 years respectively.
He got almost exactly what Dave predicted.
Bruce was projected at AAV $16M/2 years and AAV $13M/3 years respectively.
He got exactly what the median crowd predicted.
Chatwood was projected at AAV $10M/3 years and got AAV $12.7M/3years.
The point is no free agent has yet to sign a deal greater than three years because only a handful of the free agents expected to sign a deal for four years signed.
Both Carlos Santana and Wade Davis got a 3 year deal but with higher AAV than expected.
And all the other players that signed weren’t expected to get longer deals anyhow.
Are there reasons to believe Cain’s price could be lower than expected? Absolutely.
Is the fact that nobody signed a deal guaranteeing four years or longer so far in the offseason one of them? Not really.
I think he makes Oakland a contender. They’re really close.
The giants are not totally out on Cain. The front office and ownership are willing to go over the CBT And Bobby Evans recently stated that Austin Jackson isn’t Their final solution for center field.
I’m happy to report that, according to sources within the league, someone will, in fact, sign Lorenzo Cain.
The Brewers just did
Brewers 5/80.
So with Cain to the Brewers for 5/$80, chalk one up for the hypothesis that the observation of cheaper late signings is about sequencing of FA signings, not the date on the calendar.
There are admittedly still lots of FA’s out there who were predicted to get healthy contracts. It’s only one data point so our conclusion is still up in the air until we see subsequent signings.