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We knew the Giants were going to miss Zack Wheeler when they pulled the trigger on the deal to acquire Carlos Beltran. Brian Sabean was sacrificing a piece at the future for the sake of the present. Many of us thought the pain would at least be dulled by a postseason appearance and a shot at defending their 2010 championship. It’s OK, though. We all make mistakes. Myself included:
The Giants’ addition of Beltran should put the NL West title squarely in the bank for San Francisco, as they already hold a three-game lead over a flawed Arizona team. Beltran will replace Nate Schierholtz in right field. The 27-year-old right fielder has been serviceable so far, posting a 109 wRC+, but Beltran has been worth nearly three more wins this season and could be an upgrade of as much as two wins over the next 50 games and change remaining.
Whoops.
Fast forward to September. The Giants have dropped 11.5 games in the standings and, depending on your source, have between a 0.2% and 0.3% chance of winning the National League West. Beltran’s play hasn’t quite been what the Giants were hoping for — the 34-year-old has a .296/.333/.463, good, but not superstar-level — and he’s spent much of his time in San Francisco injured and on the pine, missing 14 games and only playing in 28.
It’s exceedingly easy to win in the court of public opinion when a prospect is traded for help to win now. This trade was the perfect situation: the Giants’ offense was easily the worst in the National League at the time, and Beltran was having one of his best seasons in recent memory. Sure, Wheeler looked good in the minors, but he was still in the low minors and years away from impacting the major league team. With the memories of 2010 fresh in the brain, the mental gymnastics necessary for a fan to justify the move were hardly Olympic-level rings. Maybe more like rhythmic floor exercise.
At the time, it seemed like the Giants’ acquisition of Beltran didn’t make much sense because their position was too good to trade away such a prized prospect as Wheeler. Beltran’s fate since joining the Giants’ shows yet another reason the risk for the Giants was too great. At 34, his susceptibility to injury made his production in San Francisco far from a guarantee.
Hindsight remains 20-20, and as such, my original vision of the Beltran trade sits somewhere around 20-200. Now, the Giants 8.5 games out of the NL West lead and Zack Wheeler just finished posting a 2.00 ERA and 1.68 FIP for the Mets High-A squad in his last six starts of the minor league season. Although these risks are often acknowledged when these moves are made — particularly by teams in great positions to make the playoffs — rarely are they ever realized so swiftly and so harshly. Perhaps this trade will serve as a reminder both for the Giants and for the rest of the league, of how the veteran-prospect swap can backfire, and backfire horribly.
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“Beltran was having one of his best seasons in recent memory…”
I know the dude is getting old, but has he really played in any season that lies outside the limits of our collective memory? That seems a little harsh.
Speak for yourself. I’m a precocious six-year-old.
I honestly can’t remember him doing anything since using his skull to take out Mike Cameron’s face.
If you honestly can’t remember anything after that, then that’s a shame because he spent the next 3 1/2 years as one of the best players in baseball.
the injury killed it IMO
he’s been hitting decently since he’s gotten back but since he’s been back we’ve been effectively out of the race…
sucks but I’m not too torn up about it.
As a lifelong Giants fan I have the fork ready because my boys are done. BUT, I don’t think this trade made much of a difference now or in the future. If Wheeler wins big in the majors, he will be the exception. If Beltran would have hit a ton he would have still been the only positive (except maybe Pablo) to a pitiful offense. I’d like to see a lineup that inlcudes Posey, Beltran and Sandoval at the same time next year and this may erase any second thoughts about the trade.
Belt too. I’m excited for next year.
Beltran is a FA…do you really think Sabean will be bringing him back?
No, wishful thinking
I think he’ll try, but Andy Baggarly at the SJ Mercury News has written about how Beltran seems very unlikely to sign with SF, if body language and attitude are any indication.
.01% or next to none like jack moores article for colorado “buster posey injury opens door for colorado”
real competietor my butt
Well that’s the point isn’t it. It looks like Wheeler is turning into a pretty good young talent, and you’re trying to rationalize this trade by saying that you’re excited about the possibility of resigning Beltran for his age-35 season to bolster your offense.
The problem with this trade IMO is that the addition of one decent bat was unlikely to turn the tide of offensive hideousness that the Giants were exhibiting up to that point. Beltran is just one guy, who’s not really even a good right fielder any more. Yes, he had a wOBA around .380 at the time of the trade, but it seems unlikely to me that you could realistically make the case that one more decent hitter was going to make a difference this year.
This is a team that has given Aubrey Huff (and his .294 wOBA) 550 AB’s this year. Andres Torres is an above average defensive CF, but his wOBA for the season is .293. Add to that the Giants’ collection of replacement level (or worse) catchers and the black hole known as shortstop and there are far too many lost at bats to expect a competitive result. Right field was one of the few bright spots, with Nate Schierholtz giving the Giants slightly above average production while playing lock down defense out there. Move him to left (as Bochy stupidly agreed to do, perhaps at Beltran’s request) and a good chunk of his value is lost.
A lot of Giants fans will blame the lost season on injury and while that played a big role, the regression bug has bit the hardest. Huff, Torres, Ross and Burrell played way more like we thought they would this year than last. This roster was formed with the bright eyed optimism that comes from a World Series run where almost everything went right. To expect such fortune twice in a row, well that’s just foolish. The cold hard truth states the obvious. These guys (Pitching excepted..) just aren’t very good.
I don’t disagree with you, as painful as that is, but the Gianst were right in the race until about 6 weeks ago. If the Giants could have played .500 ball from the first of August till now they would still be in first place even with a terrible offense. They are capable of playing at least .500 baseball even with very little offense, proven by last year and 2/3rds of 2011. Note: Huff has sucked this year badly, but he did finish in the top ten last year in MVP. That “bought” him the AB’s I’m sure.
If the Giants would’ve played .500 ball from Aug. 1 until now they’d still be 3-5 games back (assuming they didn’t get to .500 all through wins against the Dbacks), wouldn’t they?
It’s very true though. The problem with this trade is that the Giants let go of a top prospect for a now or never acquisition. With the handful of offensive holes the Giants have now, and will have heading into next year, they could have restructured an offer to at least acquire someone who might have been a reasonable contributor today, as well as insurance for 2012 and beyond. The Colby Rasmus deal comes to mind…
The Giants will most likely be in a similar position yet again, to what they’ve been in the past few years, where they will be digging through scraps, looking for offensive help in July of 2012, even if they meet expectations with players like Belt, Sandoval, and Posey. Beltran was a mirage. Wheeler should have been used more effectively.
Colby Rasmus has been far inferior to Beltran this year. If they were looking long-term he’s a good option, but this is a lost year for him. He’s not someone you acquire to put you over the top in 2011.
There’s a lot of second guessers now that they’re out of the race – and the trade was by no means a slam dunk at the time it went down – but everybody seems to be forgetting that Beltran was the best available bat in July. For a team that needed an offensive boost, he was the best player they could have traded for. It just didn’t work out.
When you evaluate this trade, you have to consider that it involved a number of elements that are real but very difficult to quantify. SF is the defending champ, was in position to make the playoffs, and had a horrendous offense that almost definitely could not win another WS. What is the long-term value of winning consecutive championships (or appearing in consecutive WS) in a large market, in terms of fan goodwill, attendance in later years, merchandise, TV ratings and contracts, etc? A stretch of dominance can increase revenue in the present and make / cement lifelong fans who provide revenue for many years to come, which can be used to overcome the loss of value from not having Wheeler at a minimal salary during his early years. So if Beltran increased their odds of winning a championship by on a bit, this may have been worth it b/c the potential payoff was quite large.
I also don’t like the idea of it serving as a ‘reminder’ of how trades can backfire. This sounds suspiciously like the error of putting undue weight on the chances of an occurenc of a particular outcome in the future just b/c it happened to occur in the past, like a boogeyman. SF’s downside was obvious from the outset – SF falls apart and has no need for Beltran, and Wheeler shows great promise. There was a chance that this would happen, there was also a chance that Beltran would carry SF to a title and Wheeler suffer a career ending injury, and every other mix of outcomes in between. You take all these into account before you make the trade, weigh the probabilities of each, and decide whether to go forward or not. What matters in evaluating decision making is if the probabilities assigned to each before the trade are accurate.
As a Phillies fan, I am pleased–even if the Mets got a good return. The only thing that would please me more is if Cody Ross fell into an industrial meat grinder.
Ssory Doc
I understand what happened last year hurts, but saying a person, who has not done anything truly wrong, should fall “into an industrial meat grinder” is pretty messed up, even in jest.
Yeah, that seems like a Phillies fan. Perhaps you could barf on Cody Ross? Oh wait, he’s not a pre-teen girl.
I’m not a Giants fan, but I didn’t like this trade for them at the time because Beltran is very far from a sure thing any more. Giants fans can console themselves in the knowledge that, as good a prospect as Wheeler is, there are quite a few scouts who also feel that he is very far from a sure thing as well.
Dominance in the Minors is no guarantee of dominance in the majors. It was a worthwhile trade that had some bad luck. That is all.
that’s so misleading, because
A. That doesn’t change the fact that before the deal was made we all knew of Beltran’s inconsistencies and the Giant’s past and continuing offensive struggles. The fact that Arizona was obviously being underrated only compounds those problems. The Giants thought they could hold onto the playoffs with what they had while still giving a beat up Beltran the rest he needed to being what he was acquired for, a playoff piece. It’s a pretty gross leap. It’s not to say it couldn’t have happened, but It’s not bad luck because it didn’t.
B If all prospects were treated as being equally volatile, then why not deal them all away with the same intent. In the end, someone has to use them. It’s not to say that the Giants should have kept Wheeler with the intent of him becoming a mainstay in their rotation. It has to do with whether his being an asset was effectively used at that point in time.
baty, point ‘A.’ is pretty absurd. What inconsistencies are you speaking of, with regards to Beltran? And while Beltran did hurt his wrist/hand after the trade, he was leading the Mets in appearances/starts at the time of the trade. Calling him ‘beat up’ is a bit of a stretch. From mid-2009 through last year it was accurate, but he showed no signs of being beat up this season. Furthermore, I’m not sure what you’re considering a pretty gross leap. At the time of the trade, one of the reasons everybody thought it was a bad trade is because the Giants were a virtual lock for the playoffs so they didn’t need Beltran to put them over the top. Only in hindsight could you think it was a leap for them to acquire him as a playoff piece.
beltran i don’t mind so much…orlando cabrera is a different story.
Crawford can’t hit but he definately is a better fielder than Cabrerra.
Of course Cabrerra is better than Tejada, but my Grandmother has more range than Tejada.
I don’t think we need more reminders of trades that don’t work out for the team moving the veteran. People seem to remember trade disasters a lot better than trades where the prospects don’t turn into much. Nobody will forget Lee, Sizemore, Phillips for Fatty Colon. Or the Bagwell trade, or the Lowe and Varitek trade.
People seem to remember less when the prospects turn out to be nothing. Take Teixeira for Kotchman. Or the Cliff Lee to Philadelphia trade. What about the last time Beltran was traded? I think John Buck has had the most notable career of the prospects Kansas City acquired.
then there’s the hanley ramirez and anibal sanchez for beckett and lowell–everyone’s a winner.
20/20 hindsight wasn’t needed to see that this was a terrible trade. As I pointed out at the time, your prediction of a two-win gain for the Giants by obtaining Beltran was ridiculous, since he was not replacing replacement players but players who were collectively about average up to that point in the season. A prediction of a one-win improvement in only two months would have been optimistic.
As it happens, Beltran flopped, and the fact that an injury contributed to that was not surprising, considering his age. Beltran probably didn’t actually cost any wins this season, since all the other outfielders flopped and some suffered injuries as well in that timeframe.
However, he did cost the Giants whatever wins Wheeler would have provided in the future. We’ll never know now how many that might have been, but the odds are good that the number would have been greater than zero.
More precisely, the trade flopped from the Giants’ perspective. But you can hardly call a player who is leading the team in OPS in September at 1.190 a flop, despite his slow start with the Giants in August and short stint on the DL. It’s not fair to place the blame on Beltran. Maybe you were expecting Beltran to ignite his new teammates, but that’s up to them to step it up and do their part. And what no one counted on was the D-Backs getting red hot.
As a Mets fan, I’m very happy with the trade, obviously, and think it was a success. Good job, Sandy Alderson!
I agree, casey. It’s absurd to say Beltran flopped. He’s their best hitter right now – it’s not his fault the rest of the team have somehow regressed offensively.
Vivalajeter-
You sure about Beltran being their best hitter right now?
Beltran in SF 130 OPS+
Pablo Sandoval 138 OPS+
Factor-in Beltran’s poor defensive play, and Panda is the more valuable position player by a landslide.
Romo, yeah I’m sure of it. And if you check your #s today, Beltran now has the higher OPS+ in SF (not even including his tremendous #s on the Mets).
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As a Mets’ fan, all I can say is, “Thank you. Thank you very much.”