Sorting Through Friday’s Non-Tender Decisions

Friday was a key deadline in the offseason calendar: the last day that teams could non-tender players instead of offering them a contract in arbitration. It’s something of an annual tradition. Once a year, a bunch of guys whose names inspire you to think “oh, he’s not bad” nonetheless get non-tendered because their performance doesn’t measure up to their projected salary. This year, the non-tender group was larger than I’m used to, so I think it merits a recap.

One classic archetype of the players who get non-tendered is the older breakout who then regresses toward the mean in subsequent years. An example: Adolis García, probably the most famous player in this group, burst onto the scene as a 28-year-old rookie in 2021, piling up 10.6 WAR in his first three full seasons. He starred on the 2023 World Series champion Rangers, blasting eight home runs and a record 22 RBI, and taking home ALCS MVP honors.

The next two years weren’t so halcyon, with García posting an aggregate 89 wRC+ and 0.6 WAR. Heading into his age-33 season, it’s hard to expect a return to his peak form; our projection systems think he’s more of a fourth outfielder than an everyday starter these days. The problem, from Texas’ standpoint, is that García earned $9.25 million this season in his second year of arbitration. He stood to make at least that much in his last pass through arb. The Rangers quite reasonably looked around for alternatives. Several free agent corner outfielders with similar projections were available, and probably for less. And Texas likely went into the Friday deadline with some idea that the Marcus Semien/Brandon Nimmo salary swap was on horizon, which meant fewer outfield openings; given that backdrop, García’s non-tender isn’t a big surprise.

I don’t think García is done by any means. He’d hardly be the first player to bounce back after a few down years. He still has enormous power when he can turn on the ball. He’s a solid defender in right field. He hasn’t lost a step. The problem is that sketchy plate discipline meant he was often behind in the count, lunging at pitches off the plate or striking out. García’s game always felt balanced on a knife’s edge, and when he’s too aggressive, pitchers just don’t give him enough to hit. Guys with that profile sometimes figure it out, but they tend to do so on minor league deals or one-year pacts with playing time incentives. Someone is sure to give him a chance, it just didn’t make much sense for the Rangers to do so given the contract situation.

Likewise, backstop Jonah Heim starred for the 2023 World Series team and promptly turned into a pumpkin, racking up a 71 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR in the next two years. His receiving, his best skill when he debuted, has fallen off to roughly average. He, too, was headed into his last year of arbitration, projected for a salary of around $6 million. Rather than tender him a contract in that range, the Rangers let him go.

Heim’s situation isn’t exactly the same as García’s. His contract is more affordable; it’s hard to find a backup catcher, which is presumably the role he’s best suited for at this point in his career, for much less. But can Heim hit? Let’s put it this way: Thirty-four catchers batted 300 or more times in 2025; Heim’s batting line was 33rd out of 34. Thirty-one catchers have batted 600 or more times in the past two years; he’s 30th out of 31 there. Even at a position where the bar for offense is low, Heim hasn’t been a great option.

Like García, I don’t see this non-tender as a sign that Heim doesn’t belong in the majors. Decent defensive catchers – he definitely still clears this bar – can play in the big leagues for what seems like forever, bouncing around between teams on one-year deals as backups. And it isn’t a forgone conclusion that he won’t regain some of his offensive punch. I don’t make a habit of expecting 31-year-old catchers to regain lost skills, but “it’s less than 50%” and “it can’t happen” are not the same thing. Like García, though, Heim’s salary climbed while his future outlook dipped, and when the lines crossed, the Rangers pulled the plug.

Those two are the headliners of this year’s list of non-tendered players, established major leaguers who started for a playoff team most of us remember. There are plenty of other guys you’ll remember too, though. Looking for not-quite-everyday hitters? JJ Bleday, Will Brennan, Jake Fraley, Nathaniel Lowe, Christopher Morel, Michael Toglia, and Ramón Urías all got cashiered. Between them, that’s a lot of interesting veteran options, none of whom you’d love to pencil in as a starter in 2026.

Of that group, I think Morel is the most interesting bounce-back candidate. He has a clear carrying tool, namely elite bat speed that he has, at times, converted into excellent power numbers. He has a huge throwing arm, too; his body clearly rotates to generate power very well. Unfortunately, he’s long struggled to make enough contact to put his power to good use. In 2025, his swinging strike rate ballooned to an unplayable 19.4%. It’s not so much that Morel swings at bad pitches – he makes good swing decisions overall, swinging at both more strikes and fewer balls than average – it’s just that he comes up empty a lot.

If this were an easy thing to fix, I’m pretty sure Morel would have fixed it. But difficult isn’t impossible. Every so often, some change clicks, and a player turns from a depth option to J.D. Martinez. Teams with spare roster spots – rebuilding clubs, mainly – do a brisk business in giving guys like Morel playing time and seeing what turns up. In fact, I think that plenty of teams would have kept Morel in the fold, $2.5 million-ish salary and all, because if he figures things out, you can imagine a very high ceiling. Powerful hitters in their prime are valuable if they aren’t striking out as much as he does.

The Rays aren’t most teams, though. They already declined a team option in Pete Fairbanks’ contract, a move that only makes sense through a lens of extreme financial austerity. The Rays are one of the most penny-pinching teams in the majors. Combine that with them looking to cut payroll, and Morel just wasn’t a fit.

Lowe is another hitter who feels a little too good to be on this list, but context is key here. Lowe is headed into his last trip through arbitration, and while he had a poor start to the 2025 season, three straight good years before that meant he was going to get an eight-figure salary. The Red Sox might not have a spot for Lowe next year with Triston Casas returning, and they generally aren’t a team that spends big on the margins of their roster, so he was an easy non-tender candidate. That said, Lowe a competent lefty bat, and I’m pretty certain he’ll find a near-everyday role this winter. It just won’t be for what he would have gotten in arb.

On the mound, relievers are normally the most common non-tender candidates, and this year was no exception. Jorge Alcala, Taylor Clarke, Jake Cousins, Scott Effross, Sam Hentges, Colin Holderman, Mark Leiter Jr., Joey Lucchesi, Dauri Moreta, Eli Morgan, Evan Phillips, Tayler Saucedo, Josh Sborz, Albert Suarez, Trent Thornton, and Josh Winckowski were all non-tendered. Alek Manoah, who you might be surprised to learn was on the Atlanta Braves after some late-season roster machinations, joined the group as well.

I listed that group en masse because that’s how teams treat fringe relievers in the offseason. All of these guys have demonstrated the ability to get major league hitters out at one point or another. None of them are currently firing on all cylinders. That sounds tailor-made for a minor league contract, or perhaps a major league deal with big playing-time incentives. It’s the MLB version of throwing spaghetti at a wall; sign four interesting relievers to cheap deals and see who ends up as your setup man.

Phillips is a notable exception to that paradigm. He’s been consistently effective in a high-leverage role for quite a while now. He’s headed for free agency after next season, though, and currently rehabbing from elbow surgery, which will keep him out for the majority of 2026. Thus, he’s likely to sign a two-year deal that will give him a place to rehab and the team that signs him a bullpen option in a year’s time.

Manoah is another interesting case. He was an All-Star in 2022, definitely one of the best pitchers in baseball. But he followed that up with a disastrous, below-replacement 2023, and then had Tommy John surgery in mid-2024 after shoulder and elbow injuries derailed his season. He still looked diminished in his 2025 return, never reached the majors, and was a 40-man roster casualty. He’s an extremely interesting project, because there’s no doubt that the upside is there, but he hasn’t looked like a major league-caliber starter in a few years now.

The non-tender deadline is rarely a huge source of talent for contending teams. That’s only logical; if these players were meaningfully better, their teams likely wouldn’t be non-tendering them. It’s more often a useful early read on teams’ financial situation heading into free agency, and from that perspective, I think that the tea leaves are pointing towards more spending restrictions than I expected on the margins. The Rangers non-tendered a few close calls and are in salary reduction mode. The Rays did typically Rays things, but with more of a save-money lean than normal. It’s not a huge signal, but I do think that this points towards a more subdued winter than expected.