Stealing on Catchers (Not Named Molina)

I spent the last week on my newest tool, which analyzes play by play in order to rate catchers on their throwing.

The task is to seperate the catcher’s ability to throw out base stealers from that of the pitchers they are teamed with. My initial table, extracted from the RetroSheet events for 2003-2008, contains IDs for the catcher, pitcher, baserunner, the hand of the pitcher and batter, natural or artificial turf, and the the number of steal opportunities and total of each type of result for each combination of these factors. For each catcher, for each season and base, there is how he did with each pitcher (the observed values). In a WOWY fashion, that is compared to the results for each of those pitchers, over the past six seasons, with every other catcher (the expected values). The sum of all players forms the mean values. Using a variation of the Odds Ratio I’ve called the Inverse James Function, I then calculate what true talent level would give us that observed value, given the expected and the mean.

The mean CS% for the past six seasons is .243. If a player’s observed value is the same as his expected, then his normal value is equal to the league mean. If the observed is higher (or lower) than expected, then the normal will be higher (or lower) than the mean, with the normal value limited to between 0 and 1.

Check out the top 5. What’s on that gene pool? Bengie, who’s always been a little better than average, had a great season despite adverse expectations, and jumped to the head of the list ahead of his brothers. Jason Kendall has been on a roller coaster, being average, average, poor, average, poor and very good the past six years. Despite the fluctations, averaging all that together, he projects as league average for next year. Most of the values are consistent from year to year.

Henry Blanco is the “career” leader of the six year period, with a normal CS% of .445, and a runs allowed above average (RAA) of 10.1 per 1800 base stealing opportunities. He’s followed by Yadier Molina at .442 and Gerald Laird at .406. The worst rates are Gary Bennett .139, Michael Barrett .152 and Mike Piazza .160, with Piazza having the worst R/1800 at -12.1. At age 36, Blanco has shown no signs of slowing down, having a normal CS% over .500 in 3 of the past 4 seasons.

On the other hand, Jason Varitek and Brad Ausmus, two catchers with a past record of defensive accolades, have both shown sharp downward trends. Varitek’s normal CS% has been .419, .255, .211, .160, .139 and .118, dropping from very good to very bad. Ausmus similarly has marks of .308, .222, .180, .169, .103 and .136.

Despite four consecutive years of poor throwing, the rate of steal attempts versus Ausmus has been at or below average, likely based on his past reputation and the ability of his pitchers to hold runners. Ivan Rodriguez, who in the 1990’s routinely had observed CS% of over .500, has the past two seasons only been slightly better than average at .273 and .275. Although the rate attempt rate against Rodriguez has risen to .040 (average=.047), over the last six years he has the lowest rate at .029, followed by Rod Barajas at .036, Joe Maurer .037, Toby Hall .038, Chris Snyder .038 and Ausmus .040. The catchers run against most often have been Mike Piazza .074, Brandon Inge .066, Victor Martinez .060, Paul LoDuca .058 and Michael Barrett .055.

2008 Leaders

Name	RAA	R1800	nCS%	oSB	oCS	oCS%	eSB	eCS	eCS%
Molina, Bengie	13.0	11.3	0.420	68	31	0.313	106	20	0.160
Kendall, Jason	11.6	9.3	0.419	55	36	0.396	89	26	0.224
Molina, Jose	8.7	12.8	0.408	42	32	0.432	61	22	0.259
Navarro, Dioner	3.4	3.7	0.367	45	23	0.338	53	19	0.263
Molina, Yadier	5.8	5.9	0.364	34	16	0.320	47	12	0.205
Martin, Russell	3.9	3.5	0.325	68	17	0.200	86	15	0.149
Snyder, Chris	4.5	5.2	0.324	49	19	0.279	63	15	0.198
Schneider, Brian	2.7	3.1	0.312	42	16	0.276	54	15	0.217
Suzuki, Kurt	4.4	3.9	0.303	53	18	0.254	82	22	0.214
Mauer, Joe	4.4	4.0	0.301	51	19	0.271	67	18	0.216
Laird, Gerald	0.6	0.8	0.293	52	18	0.257	55	14	0.207
Johjima, Kenji	-0.6	-0.8	0.290	51	19	0.271	43	12	0.223
Rodriguez, Ivan	3.2	3.4	0.275	51	22	0.301	64	23	0.262
Torrealba, Yorvit	-1.5	-2.8	0.224	45	10	0.182	34	9	0.198
Bako, Paul	-6.0	-7.7	0.217	55	20	0.267	40	28	0.409
Pierzynski, A.J.	0.3	0.3	0.212	96	11	0.103	106	14	0.119
Hernandez, R.	-4.5	-4.1	0.207	98	18	0.155	75	17	0.181
Doumit, Ryan	-4.2	-4.3	0.202	68	15	0.181	61	17	0.221
Ruiz, Carlos	-1.6	-2.0	0.202	65	14	0.177	50	14	0.214
Soto, Geovany	-1.9	-1.8	0.198	67	17	0.202	63	20	0.240
McCann, Brian	-6.1	-5.7	0.189	93	21	0.184	72	21	0.227
Treanor, Matt	-0.8	-1.5	0.186	44	11	0.200	31	10	0.241
Mathis, Jeff	-6.7	-9.7	0.175	57	16	0.219	44	20	0.306
Napoli, Mike	-4.6	-7.5	0.131	52	9	0.148	42	15	0.263
Varitek, Jason	-8.2	-8.6	0.118	56	14	0.200	56	33	0.372
Buck, John	-8.1	-8.9	0.098	59	9	0.132	51	24	0.322

2003-2008 Leaders

Name	RAA	R1800	nCS%	oSB	oCS	oCS%	eSB	eCS	eCS%
Blanco, Henry	24.6	10.1	0.4	128	79	0.382	177	47	0.209
Molina, Yadier	38.0	9.7	0.4	115	89	0.436	190	53	0.218
Laird, Gerald	22.9	7.7	0.4	165	93	0.360	212	55	0.206
Molina, Jose	27.7	9.4	0.4	160	104	0.394	205	69	0.252
Martin, Russell	17.6	5.4	0.4	219	75	0.255	256	49	0.160
Schneider, Brian	36.6	6.5	0.4	259	134	0.341	349	96	0.216
Johjima, Kenji	12.6	4.1	0.3	154	72	0.319	174	49	0.218
Rodriguez, Ivan	44.9	7.5	0.3	236	119	0.335	455	140	0.235
Mauer, Joe	17.0	4.5	0.3	150	78	0.342	225	74	0.246
Hall, Toby	24.1	5.4	0.3	241	94	0.281	335	84	0.200
Ross, Dave	9.9	3.5	0.3	140	73	0.343	172	60	0.258
Olivo, Miguel	20.5	4.4	0.3	214	95	0.307	278	87	0.239
Snyder, Chris	15.9	4.8	0.3	181	67	0.270	241	64	0.211
Barajas, Rod	15.8	3.7	0.3	203	90	0.307	297	95	0.243
LaRue, Jason	5.7	1.4	0.3	198	84	0.298	224	71	0.242
Molina, Bengie	23.5	4.3	0.3	328	120	0.268	416	110	0.210
Inge, Brandon	5.1	2.9	0.3	125	56	0.309	95	33	0.257
Miller, Damian	8.4	2.1	0.3	200	76	0.275	237	74	0.238
Navarro, Dioner	-1.3	-0.4	0.3	196	69	0.260	183	64	0.261
Matheny, Mike	5.4	1.6	0.3	165	64	0.279	184	64	0.258
Hernandez, R.	-0.9	-0.1	0.3	397	123	0.237	375	109	0.225
Paulino, Ronny	3.7	1.5	0.3	165	51	0.236	158	42	0.210
Torrealba, Yorvit	2.4	0.7	0.3	216	71	0.247	207	61	0.228
Posada, Jorge	5.1	0.9	0.3	428	147	0.256	441	141	0.242
Redmond, Mike	-1.0	-0.4	0.3	146	45	0.236	126	41	0.243
Moeller, Chad	-0.6	-0.2	0.2	174	44	0.202	160	41	0.205
Bako, Paul	0.6	0.2	0.2	166	59	0.262	166	65	0.282
Lo Duca, Paul	-8.5	-1.7	0.2	439	136	0.237	359	106	0.228
Treanor, Matt	0.0	0.0	0.2	139	40	0.223	124	34	0.217
Kendall, Jason	-6.2	-0.9	0.2	465	133	0.222	447	126	0.220
McCann, Brian	-12.5	-3.6	0.2	254	59	0.188	222	71	0.243
Martinez, Victor	-13.5	-2.7	0.2	396	120	0.233	298	108	0.266
Lieberthal, Mike	-7.0	-1.9	0.2	264	70	0.210	245	75	0.234
Pierzynski, A.J.	-2.4	-0.4	0.2	422	96	0.185	446	114	0.204
Ruiz, Carlos	1.3	0.7	0.2	133	33	0.199	120	33	0.217
Napoli, Mike	-3.9	-2.1	0.2	139	39	0.219	128	42	0.245
Doumit, Ryan	-4.7	-2.7	0.2	121	30	0.199	107	31	0.225
Varitek, Jason	-7.3	-1.3	0.2	366	97	0.210	394	128	0.246
Valentin, Javier	-4.7	-2.2	0.2	119	36	0.232	112	41	0.267
Johnson, Charles	-0.9	-0.5	0.2	112	26	0.188	114	30	0.208
Zaun, Gregg	-11.1	-2.8	0.2	323	77	0.193	303	87	0.222
Ausmus, Brad	-4.1	-0.8	0.2	310	89	0.223	349	129	0.270
Bard, Josh	-10.9	-4.0	0.2	279	47	0.144	229	54	0.190
Lopez, Javy	-7.8	-2.6	0.2	203	51	0.201	193	69	0.264
Buck, John	-11.0	-2.5	0.2	225	63	0.219	240	103	0.299
Estrada, Johnny	-16.1	-4.1	0.2	285	70	0.197	238	93	0.280
Phillips, Jason	-12.4	-6.4	0.2	177	32	0.153	140	43	0.236
Piazza, Mike	-27.5	-12.1	0.2	272	47	0.147	153	47	0.236
Barrett, Michael	-29.2	-6.7	0.2	362	73	0.168	269	101	0.272
Bennett, Gary	-10.8	-4.2	0.1	156	28	0.152	160	52	0.247

2009 Projections

Name	Age	RAA	R1800	pAtt%	pCS%	Size	pSB	pCS	pPK
Molina, Yadier	27	10.2	10.4	0.042	0.413	4695	43	30	6
Laird, Gerald	29	5.0	6.4	0.046	0.375	3848	41	24	1
Hundley, Nick	25	4.4	8.8	0.037	0.374	1297	21	12	2
Molina, Jose	34	5.4	7.9	0.046	0.367	3313	36	21	3
Martin, Russell	26	7.3	6.5	0.046	0.358	4755	59	33	2
Chavez, Raul	36	2.3	7.8	0.048	0.352	1327	16	9	1
Schneider, Brian	32	4.9	5.6	0.043	0.338	5431	45	23	1
Olivo, Miguel	31	2.9	6.3	0.043	0.326	4438	24	12	2
Johjima, Kenji	33	3.3	4.0	0.049	0.324	4316	50	24	1
Mauer, Joe	26	5.6	5.0	0.039	0.323	4689	53	25	1
Snyder, Chris	28	4.4	5.0	0.042	0.315	4055	45	21	1
Cash, Kevin	31	1.4	3.8	0.049	0.313	1491	23	10	0
Ross, Dave	32	1.4	3.4	0.042	0.313	3145	22	10	1
Barajas, Rod	33	3.0	4.4	0.038	0.312	3933	32	15	1
Molina, Bengie	35	4.9	4.2	0.040	0.310	5592	57	25	2
Rodriguez, Ivan	37	5.1	5.4	0.033	0.306	5588	38	17	3
LaRue, Jason	35	0.5	1.4	0.044	0.294	3343	20	8	0
Quintero, Humberto	29	2.0	4.9	0.047	0.290	1538	24	10	1
Navarro, Dioner	25	2.2	2.4	0.052	0.279	4164	62	24	2
Suzuki, Kurt	25	3.6	3.2	0.037	0.277	3124	55	21	0
Inge, Brandon	32	1.1	2.3	0.054	0.267	1729	36	13	1
Paulino, Ronny	28	0.3	1.2	0.053	0.256	3242	21	7	0
Hernandez, R.	33	-0.1	-0.1	0.053	0.251	5662	78	26	1
Kendall, Jason	35	-0.5	-0.4	0.051	0.247	6670	86	28	0
Torrealba, Yorvit	31	-0.2	-0.4	0.052	0.237	3547	39	12	0
Flores, Jesus	24	0.0	0.0	0.047	0.234	2086	44	14	0
Martinez, Victor	30	-0.5	-1.2	0.061	0.232	4560	34	10	0
Coste, Chris	36	0.2	0.3	0.049	0.232	2126	40	12	1
Shoppach, Kelly	29	0.9	1.1	0.037	0.231	2688	43	13	1
Nieves, Wil	31	-0.7	-1.6	0.060	0.229	1414	36	11	1
Bako, Paul	37	0.6	0.8	0.047	0.228	3044	51	15	2
Pierzynski, A.J.	32	-0.1	-0.1	0.043	0.227	5849	63	19	0
Towles, J.R.	25	0.5	1.2	0.043	0.223	1195	23	7	2
Quiroz, Guillermo	27	-0.1	-0.4	0.050	0.223	1249	28	8	0
Ruiz, Carlos	30	0.4	0.5	0.052	0.219	3109	57	16	3
McCann, Brian	25	-2.0	-1.8	0.051	0.218	4756	78	22	2
Treanor, Matt	33	-0.5	-1.0	0.054	0.217	2582	39	11	2
Soto, Geovany	26	-1.2	-1.2	0.049	0.214	2455	73	20	0
Iannetta, Chris	26	1.5	1.8	0.037	0.214	2684	44	12	1
Doumit, Ryan	28	-2.5	-2.5	0.050	0.211	2837	70	19	1
Zaun, Gregg	38	-1.5	-2.7	0.049	0.206	3916	39	10	1
Napoli, Mike	27	-1.4	-2.3	0.051	0.202	2787	45	11	0
Mathis, Jeff	26	-3.1	-4.5	0.054	0.176	2370	55	12	5
Varitek, Jason	37	-2.8	-2.9	0.044	0.176	5425	63	13	1
Bard, Josh	31	-1.7	-4.2	0.056	0.174	3045	35	7	1
Ausmus, Brad	40	-1.0	-1.9	0.042	0.168	4614	33	7	1
Saltalamacchia, Jarrod	24	-2.6	-5.6	0.052	0.164	1728	36	7	1
Buck, John	29	-2.3	-2.5	0.041	0.163	4966	57	11	1
Montero, Miguel	26	-1.4	-3.8	0.051	0.146	1762	29	5	1
Baker, John	28	-2.2	-4.6	0.051	0.138	1262	38	6	0
Riggans, Shawn	29	-1.9	-6.2	0.048	0.128	1059	24	3	0