Stephen Strasburg Returns: A Pitch FX Review
Tonight, Stephen Strasburg returned from Tommy John surgery to make his season debut for the Nationals. Here is a look at his Pitch FX speeds from tonight compared to one of his starts from last season.
| Date | Pitch Type: | FF | FT | CH | CU |
| 08/15/10 | Top | 99.3 | 96.8 | 91.8 | 84.4 |
| Average | 97.6 | 96.6 | 90.2 | 83.0 | |
| 09/06/11 | Top | 98.7 | 97.1 | 91.5 | 82.0 |
| Average | 96.7 | 95.1 | 89.5 | 80.4 |
It can be seen that his average fastball speeds are about 1 MPH slower tonight than last year. The change is nothing to worry about, especially for a pitcher that has a fastball that averages 97 MPH.
The most noticeable change was a “new” off-speed pitch. His changeup was not breaking down as much today. This season, the average horizontal break was -9.4” and the vertical break was 5.3”. Last season the values were -7.7″ for the horizontal break and 0.0″ for the vertical break. Also, the changeup is closer to the same plain as his fastball. This difference can be seen in the following two images (thanks to Brooksbaseball.net):
Note: It can also be seen that his fastballs are not drop as much as they did last season.
2010
2011
The difference in the changeup is due to a different spin axis on the ball has seen from these two graphs.
2010
2011
From the few cut-ins I saw of the game, there was no mention of a new changeup grip. It has a new spin and break compared to the one he threw last season.
Strasburg is throwing a bit slower this season than last. Also, he looks to have added a changeup that breaks down less. As a whole, he seems back in form and the results tonight seemed to speak for themselves.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I saw the game. Good job Ted Lilly for striking out 9.
I didn’t get MLB network at all. They kept going to the rain delay in philly instead of showing the nats game. Is it too hard to put some small wording on the screen that says the other game is in delay?
Yeah, what was up with that. I didn’t even know 9K’s in 5IP was possible for Mr. Lilly.
After the first inning, Lilly had three K’s and Strasburg had 0.
You mean somebody played, even PITCHED, in this game other than Strasburg? I never would have known.
I was at the game and Lilly didn’t look great in spite of the 9 strikeouts. He was getting behind in the count and had a high pitch count. He did work a long at bat against Strasburg before grounding out which is better than his teammates seemed to do at the plate.
Did you see how awful his first swing was? I laughed out loud, then noticed his 0.083 BA.