Strasburg Signs

After nearly a year of hoopla surrounding just how large of a signing bonus Stephen Strasburg would command, we finally got the answer last night – $7.5 million in up front signing money and $7.5 million in guaranteed salaries from 2010 to 2012 (along with the pro-rated league minimum for what’s left of 2009), bringing the total package to just over $15 million. This is the largest contract ever given to a player signed through the draft, breaking Mark Prior’s record of $10.5 million from the 2001 draft.

However, after all the hoopla, the deal isn’t that much different than what Prior got, once you adjust for present value. The annual inflation since Prior signed has been about 2.4%, so adjusting Prior’s deal to present day dollars would put his original contract at about $12.7 million. Strasburg’s $15 million in guarantee is “only” an 18% premium over the adjusted value of Prior’s deal.

Now, beating a record by 18% isn’t bad, and of course Strasburg would have been a bit nutty to walk away from that kind of money as a 20-year-old pitcher. But, really, after all the talk of shattering previous draft records – 18% over Prior’s deal was the best Scott Boras could do? Maybe he’s lost a step.

Anyway, congratulations to the Nationals organization for getting the deal done. You have a franchise player. Now, the question is what to do with him.

Because of the way the deal is structured, Strasburg is only under contract through 2012, and then will have his three arbitration years before he qualifies for free agency. If the Nationals stick him in the major league rotation next spring, they’ll control him through 2015. Despite the strong fan interest in seeing him, however, there are several compelling reasons to let him begin 2010 in the minors.

For one, there’s the issue of workload. In his two years of starting for San Diego State, he threw 97 and 109 innings respectively. Given the significant potential value he holds to their long term future, Washington has every reason to be cautious with Strasburg next year, and holding him under 150 innings is probably in everyone’s best interests. That’s very hard to do if he starts the year in the big league rotation.

Secondly, there’s still the transition to professional baseball that needs to be made. His stuff is overwhelming, but he’s still going to have to learn how to pitch on four days rest, and how to respond if he isn’t hitting 100 with the fastball every time out. Working on pitching without his best stuff will be a far easier experience if he isn’t being saddled with the weight of an entire fan base watching.

And, yes, there’s the free agency issue. The Nationals could add an extra year of club control by holding him down for approximately three weeks next season. While I’m not a fan of using that as a decision making tool in most cases, when it comes to a kid straight out of college, there are significantly less ethical issues here than with the J.J. Hardy case, for instance.

For a variety of reasons, it makes sense for Strasburg to begin 2010 in the minor leagues. Washington fans, I’m sure you want to see this kid in D.C. as soon as possible, but I hope you’re willing to wait until May of next year for his big debut.