Sunday Notes: Nathan & Perkins, McHugh, Norris Debut, Rowdy Tellez, Giants’ Arroyo
Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins agree that closers could earn more multiple-inning saves and throw more overall innings. But they don’t necessarily feel they should, and they certainly don’t see it happening.
Once upon a time, it wasn’t all that uncommon for a team’s top bullpen arm to log a lot of action. Notable examples are Mike Marshall, John Hiller and Goose Gossage.
In a six-year stretch from 1971-1976, Marshall averaged 73.5 appearances and 137 innings, and twice led the league in saves. Between 1973-1974, Hiller averaged 62 appearances and 137 innings, and had a 38-save season. Gossage averaged 56 appearances and 78 innings in the 10 seasons in which he saved at least 20.
Five closers have at least 40 saves so far this year, and all are averaging less than an inning per appearance. Of them, only Trevor Rosenthal – currently at 66 – is likely to finish with as many as 70 innings.
Nathan and Perkins are used in much the same manner. Over his career, Nathan has thrown 746 innings in 738 relief outings. In his three seasons as a closer, Perkins has pitched 192 innings in 191 appearances. Earlier this summer I asked both if a return to the Marshall-Hiller-Gossage days was possible.
“Can a person physically do it? Absolutely,” said Nathan. “Arms are capable of doing anything, it’s just a matter of training them. But do ball clubs want that? They invest a lot of money in [closers], so probably not.”
“You can throw that many,” concurred Perkins. “It’s basically a conditioning thing. But there’s a reason why innings have gone down: The money has gone up. I also think guys can be healthier and more effective with shorter stints. Teams are always trying to find the best balance between usage and rest to keep guys as healthy as possible.”
Injury-risk isn’t easy to quantify. The Marshall-Hiller-Gossage trio combined to pitch in over 2,200 games, while others have blown out their arms with far less usage. Many pitchers have gone under the knife recently, and Nathan has an idea of why that might be.
“You’ve got more guys throwing between 95-100 mph now, which means greater arm speed,” said the Tigers closer. “As we’re seeing, that means more injuries. Everybody has a theory as to why there are more Tommy Johns going down, and while I’m sure it’s a mixture of a lot of things, the bottom line is, if you throw harder you’re more vulnerable to getting injured.”
True as that may be, the vast majority of pitchers who have gone under the knife since the start of the season have been starters – Nate Jones and Bobby Parnell are among the exceptions. Your typical short reliever could increase his innings by 25 percent and still finish with roughly a third as many innings as Max Scherzer or James Shields. I presented the idea that a top-notch closer would add more value to his team if he threw 90 innings instead of 70.
“That’s true, assuming he gets that many situations to help his club out,” responded Nathan. “If the game can sway one way or the other, yeah, it’s valuable. If the situation calls for it and you have a guy who is better than your other options, absolutely. If a reliever can give you those innings, more power to him.”
Perkins agreed in principle, with his own caveat.
“If a pitcher can sustain that, yeah,” said Perkins. “But if you’re going to throw twice the innings, are you going to be as effective? I don’t think you can say what a guy does over 50 innings can be simply be doubled and he’ll do it over 100. Craig Kimbrel can be a 3.0 WAR pitcher over 50 innings, but I don’t think he’s a 6.0 WAR over 100.”
In order to add innings and accumulate more WAR, a pitcher would have to become more accustomed to getting up and down. For many – Nathan and Perkins included – it’s easier said than done.
“Sitting down between innings and then coming back takes a little out of you,” admitted Perkins. “Every time I pitch in a tie game at home I petition to go another inning – usually unsuccessfully – but it is harder to do something you’re not used to doing. There are guys who are used to bridging innings and there are guys who aren’t. Maybe it’s a mental thing? I’m thinking, ‘Man, I had to sit between innings.’ I sound like a huge wimp saying that, but it’s kind of how it is.”
“When I was younger and a starter, I’d look at relievers and think ‘Man, how do they throw every day?’” said Nathan. “Now I think ‘Man, I don’t think I could ever start, because I can’t do that whole get down, get up, get down, get up. But again, I think it’s about training your arm and body to do certain things. Our bodies are the same structure now as when guys were pitching a lot more.”
——
Daniel Norris came close to having an out-of-the-body experience on Friday night. The 21-year-old Toronto Blue Jays lefthander made his big-league debut at Fenway Park with the tying run on second base in the seventh inning. The one batter he faced was David Ortiz.
Norris, who began the season in High-A Dunedin, froze David Ortiz with a full-count curveball.
Prior to the game, I asked Norris if he’s imagined what his debut would feel like. His response was, “I have and it will be like that times 10.”
His assumption proved accurate. Norris told me yesterday that his strikeout of Ortiz was basically a blur and that he’d walked off the mound with chills coursing through his body.
Norris was told to be ready for Ortiz when Dustin McGowan came in to begin the seventh inning. According to the 2011 second-rounder, his response was “OK, I’ll be ready.”
John Gibbons was waiting at the mound when the youngster arrived from the bullpen. The Blue Jays manager handed him the ball and said, “Let’s see that big old smile.”
“When you bring in a reliever – especially if it’s a young kid — his face will tell you a lot,” said Gibbons. “You can tell if he’s wide-eyed and is a little intimidated. He had a different look than that. He looked excited, but also confident, like ‘I can do this.’”
Returning to the dugout as Norris prepared to face Ortiz, Gibbons said a few quick words to Red Sox third base coach Brian Butterfield.
“Butter and I are old friends,” Gibbons told me. “I said to him, ‘We’ve got this 21-year-old greenhorn here and I’m throwing him right into the fire,’ Butter just gave me this big old grin. Then the kid did his thing.”
——
Collin McHugh has been doing his thing in Houston this summer. His previous organizations never saw it coming. The former Mets and Rockies righthander came into the current campaign with career record of 0-8 and an 8.94 ERA. The Astros picked him up on waivers in December.
Opposing hitters aren’t seeing the ball well against McHugh and the numbers bear that out. In 22 starts for the Astros, the 27-year-old is 8-9, 2.89. His strikeout rate is a handsome 9.4.
McHugh doesn’t have overpowering stuff. He does have a low contact rate, 75.9, with many of the whiffs coming on 91-mph four-seam fastballs. The righty can only guess at why that is.
“I know it exists – I know it’s a thing – but truthfully, I don’t really know,” McHugh said of the propensity for hitters to swing and miss at his offerings. “Maybe it’s my ability to effectively throw the ball up in the zone, because a ball up in the zone looks faster to a hitter than a ball down in the zone? I’ve elevated more this year.”
McHugh used to throw a lot of two-seamers, but shelved the pitch early this season. The reason? “Because my sinker wasn’t very good,” McHugh told me.
The transition had its genesis in mid-April during his final start in Triple-A. Knowing he’d have trouble manipulating the ball in the mountain air of Colorado Springs, he threw all four-seamers and cutters. The results were just what he was looking for, and he carried them over upon his promotion.
Brent Strom touched on the reasons behind McHugh’s success in a recent Sunday Notes column. One thing the Astros pitching coach pointed to was McHugh’s fastball playing up because of good extension.
“For some reason, the way I throw lends itself that,” acknowledged McHugh. “I used to think I needed to be more over the top in order to get good extension on the ball, but my natural arm slot is kind of below three quarters. It doesn’t matter where you are from here to here to here, it’s where the ball comes out. The closer you get, the more of a head start you get on the hitter’s reaction time. I’m not thinking about getting good extension, though. I’m just trying to stay behind the ball and dominate it through the zone.”
——
Christian Arroyo dominated the Northwest League this summer. First he was dominated by the South Atlantic League.
A 19-year-old infielder in the San Francisco Giants system, Arroyo began the year in Low-A Augusta and hit just .203/.326/.271 in 125 plate appearances. Then he hyper-extended a thumb and landed on the disabled list. When he returned to action it was at short-season Salem-Keizer.
Arroyo admits he was pressing in Augusta. The 25th overall pick in the 2013 draft knew expectations were high, and he let them get the best of him. To his credit, he rebounded in a mature manner. Not only did he rake at Salem-Keizer — .333/.378/.469 in 267 plate appearances – the native of Brooksville, Florida did so with a positive attitude.
‘I look at this season as a learning experience,” Arroyo told me recently. “It was a big year for me, because I grew as a player and as a young man as well. I learned a lot about the mental side of the game, as I dealt with adversity and injuries. It was a weird year, but one I can take lot from going forward.”
According to Arroyo, the hyper-extended thumb wasn’t his only malady. He also “wore a ball” on his finger while hitting off of a pitching machine, rolled his ankle, and missed time with the flu.
He also learned a new position. A natural shortstop, he spent all 26 games of his Augusta tenure at second base. When I asked if that contributed to his offensive doldrums, he responded in the negative.
“Baseball is a game of adjustments and I don’t think changing positions really affected me at all,” elaborated Arroyo. “The bottom line is that it doesn’t matter if I’m playing short, second, third, the outfield, or wherever. I still have to go to the plate and hit the white little round ball that’s coming toward me.”
Arroyo went back to shortstop in Salem-Keizer, but there is some question about his position down the road. He believes the plan is for him to remain at short, but he’s amenable to whatever gets him to the big leagues. Interestingly, there was once speculation that he could be moved behind the plate.
“The first time I was talked to about being a catcher was when the Giants area scout first came to watch me play,” explained Arroyo. “He said something about leadership skills, basically how I was vocal and kind of reminded him of a Buster Posey type of player. But by the end of my senior year I think I’d kind of knocked out the catching thing. I got quicker and more agile, and my arm strength increased. I also had a good year hitting.”
——
The Blue Jays may have hit it big when they took Rowdy Tellez in the 30th round of the 2013 draft. The native of Elk Grove, California is no ordinary late-round pick, as evidenced by the $850,000 signing bonus that prompted him to eschew a commitment to USC.
Telez has light-tower power. It hasn’t yet manifested itself in pro ball – he hit six home runs in 267 plate appearances between rookie-level Bluefield and Low-A Lansing – but it will in time. The left-handed-hitting first baseman is 6-4, 220 and already strong as an ox. He expects to get stronger.
“I’m 19 years old and not done growing, so I don’t have all my strength yet,” said Tellez. “My main goal is to just square up as many balls as possible, but it’s pretty fun to hit home runs, too. It was easier to do that in high school, but here is where you learn to become a good hitter. The power is going to play later, although I did hit one over the batter’s eye here in Lansing.”
To say it played big in high school would be an understatement.
“I hit one they said went about 500 feet,” Tellez told me. “It was over the fence, then a back yard, then a house, then over a cul de sac, and then into the next house across the street.”
Tellez molds his game after Adrian Gonzalez’s, so it comes as no surprise he aspires to be more than a bopper. Baseball America rated him the best pure hitter in Toronto’s 2013 draft and he put up a smart 305/.375/.438 slash line this season. When I asked about his approach, he put on his baseball philosopher hat.
“The name of the game is to not get yourself out,” espoused Tellez. “You want to be selective in the zone and not chase. And when you do get your pitch, don’t miss it. Pitchers are going to make pitches and hitters are going to miss pitches they should hit. That’s why it’s a game of failure. It is what it is. It’s baseball. But I don’t find myself striking out a lot, ever, really. Knock on wood.”
The Blue Jays may or may not have knocked on wood when they gambled on the supposedly college-bound prep. Why other teams didn’t take a shot in an earlier round is a question only they can answer. As for Tellez, he likely fell to Toronto because he wasn’t answering questions.
“I think scouts asked me the same things they do every other kid: How much do you want and where do you expect to go?” explained Tellez. “I never really gave anyone a straight answer. My answer was always, ‘If you take me, we’ll talk it out.’ Everybody thought I had a strong commitment to the University of Southern California – and I did – but I also really wanted to play pro ball. I ended up getting what I wanted and now I’m living the dream.”
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes and an enjoyable Sunday Notes column on Fangraphs. A pleasure as always.
You say taxes are inevitable, eh? Just give me some time to work on that.