Sunday Notes: The Red Sox Expect Sonny Gray to Be Better Than Walker Buehler

The Boston Red Sox made a pre-Thanksgiving trade on Tuesday, acquiring Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for 25-year-old right-hander Richard Fitts and hard-throwing prospect Brandon Clarke. How well the deal works out for Craig Breslow’s club is anyone’s guess — my colleague Michael Baumann wrote that he couldn’t “declare this trade to be a robbery in either direction” — but the 36-year-old righty does have a track record of reliability. Gray has graced a big-league mound 92 times over the past three seasons, gobbling up 531 innings and posting a 3.63 ERA as well as a 3.11 FIP. If he can continue to fend off Father Time a while longer, the erstwhile Vanderbilt Commodore will add value to the Red Sox starting rotation.

A Vandy product Boston brought on board as a free agent last winter came to mind when the trade was announced. That would be Walker Buehler, who despite high hopes ultimately proved to be a bust. Unable to return to old form, the veteran righty struggled to a 5.45 ERA over 112-and-a-third innings and was cut loose by the Red Sox in late August.

There are clear differences between the two pitchers — their respective health histories particularly stand out — but they nonetheless have things in common. One is a diverse repertoire. Another is a lack of high-octane heaters.

Buehler was in the 43rd percentile for fastball velocity in 2025, while Gray was in just the 16th percentile. As Baumann pointed out, the latter “has started leaking fastball velocity… [but has] compensated by leaning into a cutter and changeup, making him a legit six-pitch pitcher since 2023.” Meanwhile, the 31-year-old Buehler leaned heavily on a six-pitch mix while compensating for the velocity he lost following Tommy John surgery in 2022.

Buehler threw his four-seamer 25.3% of the time this past season, and his two-seamer at a 16.4% clip. Gray threw his four-seamer 22.3% of the time, and his two-seamer at a 17.4% clip.

How similar — or different — are Gray and Buehler at this stage of their careers? Prefacing it with my health-history caveat, I asked that question to Breslow when he met with the Boston media over Zoom to address the trade.

“Obviously, we had Walker here last year,” Boston’s president of baseball operations replied. “I don’t think anyone would say that it worked out as well as we had hoped. Sonny has a pretty significant track record of not only performance and consistency, but of shouldering a pretty significant workload. Two out of the last three years he’s thrown at least 180-plus innings with what I’d call impeccable command. This guy is sitting on a 5% walk rate for each of the past two years, so there’s not just the 200 strikeouts and swing-and-miss, but limiting free passes as well. So, they’re fairly different. We made decisions in each of those cases to go forward with the players, and hopefully Sonny’s acquisition works out.”

Breslow is indeed correct about there being differences — one could reasonably call them meaningful differences — so the comp is in many ways apples and oranges. Even so, there are no guarantees that the Red Sox will be getting the level of quality they bargained for. Quoting my colleague once again, Baumann wrote that you can’t “downplay the risks of hitching one’s wagon to a 36-year-old right-hander whose fastball averaged just under 91 mph last season.” What to expect from Gray is anything but black and white. He could be a horse, but he could also be a lemon.

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Kendrys Morales went 16 for 34 against Chris Archer.

Jose Morales went 13 for 22 against Larry Gura.

Jerry Morales went 11 for 21 against Pat Zachry.

Rich Morales went 6 for 11 against Jim Kaat.

Michael Bourne went 6 for 12 against Franklin Morales.

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Luis Morales showed why he ranked third on our 2025 Athletics Top Prospects list with a 50 FV after reaching the majors at the beginning of August. The 23-year-old right-hander made 10 appearances, all but one as a starter, and logged a 3.14 ERA with just 34 hits allowed over 48-and-two-thirds frames. Moreover, his pitch metrics were as impressive as his results. Morales’s 97.3-mph four-seam fastball ranked in the 90th percentile for velocity, while his sweeper averaged 19.5 inches of horizontal break, the most among hurlers who threw that particular offering at least 100 times. He tossed 218 sweepers in all, at an average spin rate of 2,999 RPMs.

I asked Athletics pitching coach Scott Emerson about him when the Sacramento-based club visited Fenway Park in mid-September.

“He defected from Cuba,” Emerson said of Morales. “Dan Feinstein, one of our assistant GMs, found him in Mexico and we signed him to a $3M deal [in January 2023]. He’s got a lot of upside. He’s a very limber and flexible guy who can get bigger and stronger. There are some things he needs to work on with his mechanics to throw better-quality strikes, but he’s got all the ingredients you want. He throws hard. He’s got an elite sweeper. He’s also got a good slider and a good changeup. It’s just a matter of him putting everything together in the strike zone. Really, the sky’s the limit for him.”

Emerson told me that Morales can get up to 26 inches of horizontal movement on his sweeper. Is that the most he’s seen over his two-plus decades of tutoring hurlers?

“Yes, I would say that it is the most sweep I’ve had,” replied Emerson, who joined the A’s organization in 2002 and has been their big-league pitching coach since 2017. “Now, Luis Severino can get into the 20s now and then, and he puts tremendous spin on the baseball as well, but [Morales] probably has more consistent spin than Sevvy. But Sevvy has also been doing this a long time. He knows how to control his pitches a little bit better. That’s something Morales needs to continue to improve.”

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A quiz:

Six players have been caught stealing 200 or more times over the course of their careers. Five of them led either the AL or NL in stolen bases multiple times, while another never had a season where he led his league in steals. Who was the lone non-SB leader? (A hint: He finished his career with 2,375 hits, 558 steals, 42.2 WAR, and made one All-Star team.)

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NEWS NOTES

Former FanGraphs contributor Justin Choi has been hired by the Cleveland Guardians to work in their R&D department. His FG pieces can be found here.

Ethan Katz is notable among recent coaching-staff additions, the Houston Astros having hired the highly-regarded 42-year-old to be their assistant pitching coach. Katz spent the last five seasons as the head pitching coach for the Chicago White Sox.

Geoff Arnold won’t be returning as the radio voice of the Baltimore Orioles next season after six years in that role. The Mid-Atlantic Sports Network’s decision not to renew Arnold’s contract came as a surprise. The popular broadcaster won the 2023 Maryland Sportscaster of the Year award, and earlier this month he was named one of Front Office Sports’ 26 rising play-by-play announcers.

George Altman, an outfielder whose nine MLB seasons included seven with the Chicago Cubs and one each for the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets, died recently at age 92. “Big George” was at his best in 1961 and 1962 when he put up a combined .311 batting average, 135 wRC+, and 49 home runs with Chicago’s North Side club. Bookending his time in the majors was a brief stint with the Negro American League’s Kansas City Monarchs in 1955, and seven seasons in Japan, primarily with the Lotte Orions.

Dave Morehead, who pitched for the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals across the 1963-1970 season, has reportedly died at age 82. The right-hander made 177 appearances, going 40-64 with a 4.15 ERA and tossing six shutouts along the way. Morehead, then just 21 years old, threw a no-hitter against the Cleveland Indians at Fenway Park in 1965.

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The answer to the quiz is Brett Butler, who was caught stealing 257 times. The speedy outfielder finished in the top 10 for stolen bases in 13 different seasons, but never ranked higher than third.

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Hall of Famers Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio are the most prominent among Houston’s erstwhile “Killer B’s,” but Lance Berkman put up some impressive numbers of his own. That is especially true when you compare him to Bagwell. The famously-traded-for-Larry-Andersen slugger hit more dingers than the switch-hitting outfielder/first baseman (449 to 326) , but they were otherwise much the same guy at the dish.

Bagwell played 14 full seasons and one partial season in Houston, while Berkman bookended 10 full seasons with a pair of partials. Here is how their rate stats as Astros compare:

Berkman: .296/.410/.549, 148 wRC+, .406 wOBA, 15.5 BB%%, 16.7 K%.
Bagwell: .297/.408/.540, 149 wRC+, .405 wOBA, 14.9 BB%, 16.5 K%..

Berkman garnered scant support in his lone year on the HoF ballot, receiving just five votes. Was his career Hall-worthy? No, but he was a pretty darn good hitter.

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A random obscure former player snapshot:

Scott Bullett had a long professional career that included parts of two seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates followed by two more with the Chicago Cubs. All told, the left-handed-hitting outfielder from Martinsburg, West Virginia played from 1988-2006, with his itinerant journey taking him to minor-league outposts, NPB, the Chinese Professional Baseball League, and the Mexican League. Speed was Bullett’s best attribute. He swiped 356 bases, 19 of them during his 247-game major-league tenure.

His September 1991 call-up was noteworthy. Bullett was summoned from the Salem Buccaneers having never played above High-A. The Pirates wanted wheels, and that’s what the 22-year-old brought with him to The Steel City. Bullett appeared in 11 games for the 98-win NL East club, serving as a pinch-runner eight times and going hitless in five plate appearances.

He got more opportunities with the Cubs across the 1995-1996 seasons, ultimately compiling an MLB ledger that included 87 hits, including 10 doubles, nine triples, and six home runs. He later founded, and still runs, Bullettproof Baseball Academy in St. Catharines, Ontario.

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Miguel Sanó is 18-for-51 with seven home runs for the Dominican Winter League’s Estrellas Orientales. The 32-year-old corner infielder last played stateside for the Los Angeles Angels in 2024.

Ashton Goudeau has hurled 19-and-a-third scoreless innings over four appearances for the Puerto Rican Winter League’s Indios de Mayaguez. The 33-year-old former Colorado Rockies right-hander pitched for the independent American Association’s Kansas City Monarchs this summer.

Jo-Hsi Hsu will reportedly sign with NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. The 25-year-old right-hander had a 2.05 ERA and 120 strikeouts over 114 innings with the Chinese Professional Baseball League’s Wei Chuan Dragons this season.

Josh Bishopp has allowed a pair of earned runs and fanned 15 batters over three appearances comprising eight-and-two-thirds innings for the Australian Baseball League’s Sydney Blue Sox. The 24-year-old right-hander from New South Wales pitched stateside at Missouri Valley College and Northwest Nazarene University.

Blue Sox outfielder Pablo Nunez is 19-for-40 with three two-baggers and five free passes. The 19-year-old native of Maracay, Venezuela had a 169 wRC+ over 157 plate appearances with the Cincinnati Reds’ Dominican Summer League affiliate.

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Travis Honeyman has been hampered by health issues. Seen as a potential first-rounder going into his 2023 junior season, the Boston College product suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery, resulting in his falling to the 90th-overall pick (the New York Mets then took Nolan McLean 91st overall). An arduous recovery process followed, with Honeyman playing in just 20 games in 2024.

This past season was also burdensome, albeit for a different reason. This time the
24-year-old outfielder was hamstrung by a hamstring injury that cropped up during spring training and lingered throughout the campaign. Honeywell hit well while active — a 130 wRC+ between Low-A Palm Beach and High-A Peoria— but that was in only 358 plate appearances as he was limited to 83 games. Moreover, the speedster swiped just 10 bases due in part to the balky hammy.

What I most wanted to hear about when I caught up to Honeyman during his stint in the Arizona Fall League was his bygone draft situation — specifically, which teams were most in on him prior to the need to go under the knife?

The Massapequa, New York native wasn’t forthcoming on the subject.

“I’m just blessed that the Cardinals took me,” replied Honeyman, whose AFL output included eight hits in 44 at-bats and four stolen bases without being caught. “I don’t really like talking about other teams. That’s all said and done, and I’m happy to be where I am.”

In terms of where he is developmentally, Honeyman knows that he needs do more than make up for lost playing time. While he identifies as a table-setter, he has been “talking to the Cardinals’ hitting guys and they want me to hit the ball in the air more.” He also needs to improve against higher velocity — “that has been my weakest point” — particularly when the heaters are elevated. He considers hitting breaking balls a strength.

A 29-year-old southpaw who appeared in 30 games for the Cardinals across the 2022-2023 seasons has been a positive influence on the oft-injured outfielder.

“A guy who has helped me since I got to pro ball is Packy Naughton,” Honeyman told me. “He’s a pitcher who has been in rehab the last two years dealing with elbow problems. When I was in rehab my first year, he really took me under his wing, trying to teach me how to be a true professional. We also did live at-bats. I would stand in the box for 25 pitches and he’d be telling me, ‘You can’t miss that one. You’ve got to be on time for that.’ He was right. Timing is the name of the game.”

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Purple Row’s Renee Dechert opined that the Rockies were right to make Warren Schaeffer their new manager.

The Kansas City Royals have hired former Wake Forest pitching lab coordinator Mike McFerran as an assistant pitching coach. Anne Rogers wrote about McFerrin, who was most recently a minor-league pitching coordinator for the Athletics, for MLB.com.

Also at M;B.com Adam Berry wrote about how highly-regarded Tampa Bay Rays prospect Xavier Isaac had life-saving brain surgery over the summer.

The Southern Ontario-based Intercounty Baseball League is being rebranded as the Canadian Baseball League and will now be fully professional. Julius Hern has the story at Barrie 360.

The Athletic’s Sam Blum wrote about why Tyler Skaggs’ iPad could trigger millions in damages against the Los Angeles Angels.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

When Maury Wills became the first player in MLB history to steal 100 bases in a single season, he was at that exact number through 162 games. The Los Angeles Dodgers speedster ultimately finished with 104 steals, as he swiped four more bags over a best-of-three regular-season series with the San Francisco Giants to decide the NL pennant (the arch rivals were both 101-61 through 162 games). Also of note: Wills grounded out in the ninth inning of Game 165. Had he not come to the plate, he would have finished the season with a .300 batting average. Instead, he finished at .299.

Babe Ruth led the AL with 457 total bases in 1921. No one else had more than 365. Ruth also led the circuit with 145 walks. No one else had more than 103. Home runs? Ruth had 59. No one else had more than 24.

The St. Louis Cardinals selected Cecil Cooper in the Rule 5 draft on today’s date in 1970. Subsequently returned to the Boston Red Sox organization the following April, Cooper went on to play 17 big-league seasons, recording 2,192 hits and making five All-Star teams. He also won a pair of Gold Gloves at first base.

On today’s date in 1972, the Kansas City Royals acquired Hal McRae and Wayne Simpson from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Roger Nelson and Richie Scheinblum. McRae went on to play 15 seasons with the Royals, recording 1,924 hits and a 125 wRC+. His 449 doubles and 681 extra-base hits are each second-most in franchise history, trailing only George Brett.

Players born on today’s date include Juan Berenguer, a right-hander who appeared in 490 games and went 67-62 with 32 saves while pitching for seven teams across the 1978-1992 seasons. Nicknamed “Señor Smoke,” the native of Aguadulce, Panama was a member of two World Series-winning squads, the 1984 Detroit Tigers and the 1987 Minnesota Twins.

Also born on today’s date was Barry Evans, an infielder who appeared in 224 games for the San Diego Padres from 1978-1981, and in 17 games for the New York Yankees in 1982. The University of West Georgia product hit two home runs during his modest career, and both were noteworthy. In 1979, he hit an 11th-inning home run off of Houston Astros starter J.R. Richard to break a 2-2 tie, and in 1980 he hit a pinch-hit grand slam off of St. Louis Cardinals reliever Pedro Borbon.