Brady Anderson on Analytics

Brady Anderson’s title within the Baltimore Orioles’ organization is Vice President of Baseball Operations. According to the team’s media guide, the 51-year-old former all-star “collaborates with Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter on player development and roster management.”

Anderson, who hit .256/.362/.425 over a 15-year career, isn’t your typical ex-player. He spends a lot of time in the clubhouse – his multi-faceted role includes working with hitters — but he’s equally comfortable interacting with the analytics department. A stat geek for most of his life, Anderson is well-versed in sabermetrics.

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Brady Anderson on stats and understanding value: “I’ve always been interested in statistical analysis. From the time I was five years old I was quizzed by my dad and my uncle about members of the 500-home-run club, the 3000-hit club, and a variety of other stats. It was just part of what seemed like normal conversation to me, because that was the environment in which I lived.

“I was drafted in 1985, and remember getting the Bill James “Historical Baseball Abstract.” I used to enjoy his rankings of players and his rationale for his rankings. I also grew up reading Ted Williams‘ “The Science of Hitting.” I used to travel with it and read it frequently while in the minors. Read the rest of this entry »


Player’s View: No-hitter Silent Treatment

A pitcher throwing a no-hitter typically receives the silent treatment once the late innings roll around. His teammates begin giving him a wide berth, leaving him alone with his thoughts. No one wants to be the guy who ruined a no-hitter by doing or saying the wrong thing, which includes invading a pitcher’s solitude.

What do pitchers think of the superstitious convention? Do they like being avoided between innings, or would they prefer everything to be as normal as possible? I asked several pitchers, some of whom have thrown a no-hitter. Here are their responses:

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: “In the sixth inning of mine, I was sitting in the dugout by myself. No one talked to me. I was here for Jon Lester’s and it was the same thing. When Josh Beckett threw his, he was walking around talking to guys. He treated his a little differently, but for the most part, everybody leaves you alone. But it wouldn’t bother me if someone talked to me.”

R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays: “It’s part of tradition. You see the pitcher sitting at the end of the bench. When Johan (Santana) threw his, I was in a different spot every time, starting in the sixth inning. Everyone wants to feel they had a part in it, psychologically. That’s what every superstition is. You put the right sock on before the left and feel that’s part of what helps you succeed. It’s a bunch of gibberish, of course.”

Dennis Eckersley, Red Sox broadcaster: “Guys did (avoid me), but every game I sort of had my own place to sit. But having a no-no, everybody knows that. Later in the game, they didn’t come near me. I was so young then – I was 22 years old – and looking back, I didn’t know the difference.”

Doug Fister, Nationals: “I don’t like to have things changing. I want everything to be normal. Even if it’s one of my teammates – I don’t want them to start acting weird or do anything out of the ordinary. Just do the same thing you would if I’ve given up three hits or 10 hits. I want everything to be consistent.”

Kevin Gausman, Orioles: “It’s kind of an unspoken rule. You try to not be the reason – you don’t want the pitcher to say, ‘He never talks to me, but he came and talked to me and that’s why I gave up a hit.’ But honestly, most guys don’t talk to the pitcher on the days he pitches anyway. Some guys are really social on the days they pitch, but I usually only talk to a couple of guys.”

Ubaldo Jimenez, Orioles: “I’d rather things were just normal. That way you don’t have to think about how you’re doing something different. I would like to be normal, talking to the guys and pretending everything is the same. When I threw mine, some people (avoided me) but I talked to a couple of the guys. They came to me and I came to them.”

Daniel Norris, Blue Jays: “The other day, Hutch (Drew Hutchison) had five or six no-hit innings and we were just trying to keep it on the low. That’s around the time you start noticing. We were kind of staying normal, but we definitely knew what was going on.”

Henry Owens, Red Sox prospect: “I refrain from saying anything if someone else has one going. Ask Brian Johnson about my first start this year. He said something right before I gave up a hit (in the sixth inning). But as far as superstitions go, I don’t really believe in them. Everyone was saying, ‘Brian, apologize,’ but I told him I didn’t care.”

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals: “It’s just something they’ve been doing over the years, and it doesn’t affect me either way. Some pitchers don’t want to be bothered, but I’d rather keep it the same as if I was giving up three, four, or five hits. I don’t like sitting there by myself and not having anyone to talk to. You realize a no-hitter is going on whether there are people talking to you or not.”


Sunday Notes: Bryce Harper on Stats; Storen, Gausman, Eflin, Almora, more

When I first met Drew Storen, his train had yet to reach Big League Station. The Stanford product was 22 years old and pitching in the Arizona Fall League, his Nationals debut still six months away. Since that time he’s ridden a roller coaster.

The 27-year-old right-hander has a 43-save season on his resume, but also an elbow injury and a crushing post-season loss. Briefly demoted to the minors in 2013, he bounced back to the tune of a 1.12 ERA in 65 games last year. With everything that’s transpired since our initial conversation, a glimpse in the mirror was in order.

“You try not to reflect when you play,” said Storen. “It’s human nature to do so, but you try to go day-to-day – every cliché possible – in baseball. You have to go forward, because the train is moving.

“But it’s been a good journey. There have been challenges, and good times as well. I feel I’ve grown as a pitcher. Trying harder is not always trying better, and I’m not as pedal-to-the-metal as I used to be, When I came up, I was more of a bar-fighter than a boxer. I’ve learned that you need to be a tactician; you can’t just go out there and out-stuff people.”

Analogy aside, Storen has never possessed a troglodyte mentality. He was already familiar with PITCHf/x when I interviewed him five-and-a-half years ago. He still utilizes the tool, typically to review his release point, and relies heavily on video to “make sure everything is in tune.”

Monitoring his mechanics and the depth he’s getting on his deliveries is an off-the-field endeavor. His mind’s eye is equally attentive on the mound. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Snider’s Swing, Starting Matusz, Backstop Academia, Grapefruit Nuggets

Travis Snider is a breakout candidate. Sound familiar? He’s owned the label for years, and maybe – just maybe – this will be the season he finally explodes. It’s not implausible. Somehow, Snider is still just 27 years old.

Skeptics will surely scoff at the idea, but the 2006 first-round pick feels ready to come into his own. Acquired by the Orioles in the off-season, the former Toronto and Pittsburgh outfielder is settling into his swing after nearly a decade of trying to reinvent the wheel.

‘I think I’ve had about eight different swings in eight years,” Snider told me on Friday. “In the last two years, I’ve been working toward recreating the same swing as much as possible.

“It’s about trying to create a consistent swing through the zone that can cover pitches in different quadrants, and not just be a low-ball hitter, or an inside hitter, or an outside hitter. Understanding, and being able to adjust to, the way pitchers are attacking you is often more important than mechanics.”

Mechanically, Snider said he’s concentrating on allowing his hips to clear and his hands to flow through the zone. He cited Miguel Cabrera as a hitter who can generate torque with his lower half, thus allowing his top half to uncoil. Snider admits to sometimes falling into the habit of trying to use every muscle in his body instead of taking a smooth, effortless swing. Read the rest of this entry »


Evan Meek: Guitar Hero

A lot of professional baseball players – especially pitchers – play the guitar. Evan Meek is among the best of them. The 31-year-old right-handed reliever takes music nearly as seriously as he does pitching. He’s been playing for two decades and composes his own songs.

Meek, who has a 3.63 ERA over 179 career outings, broke into the big leagues with the Pirates in 2008 and spent this past season with the Orioles. He will always be known for giving up Derek Jeter’s storybook final hit at Yankee Stadium, and he just might write some guitar hits if he chooses to pursue a second career.

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Meek on his pitch repertoire: “I throw a four-seam fastball, but most all of my fastballs cut, so it’s really a cutter. I also throw a slider and a split change-up.

“My usage kind of varies over the course of a year. It’s pretty rare you have success with all three pitches when you’re relieving in short outings. One day the slider shows up and the split doesn’t, or maybe the split shows up and the slider or fastball doesn’t. Not all days are the same.”

On his guitar repertoire: “A lot of what I play depends on my mood. What’s my vibe that day? I use the word ‘vibe’ a lot because it kind of translates to the music I like to play. If I got a lot of sleep and am energetic, I might play something more upbeat. If I’m tired, I might play something slower.

“I’ve played in bands, mostly rock. There have been acoustic sets, basically getting a group of guys together to play. The stuff I do now is mostly with a travel guitar. I do a lot of hotel-room playing. Sometimes I’ll go down to a lobby, or somewhere quiet, to play.”

On pitching and playing: “There are definitely similarities between the two. When you play in a band, there’s a plan – there’s a set – and a way you go about doing things. On the mound it’s the same thing. Read the rest of this entry »


ALCS Game Two and Sunday Notes on Saturday Night

There were 46,912 fans at Oriole Park at Camden Yards today/tonight. Between print, radio and TV, there were just over 800 credentialed media. As for the 31 players who performed on the field, they put on another good show. This game wasn’t as wild and wacky as the one that ended just before one o’clock this morning, but it was still a doozy – a doozy that last 4 hours and 17 minutes. The Royals scored twice in the ninth inning on a double by Alcides Escobar and a single by Lorenzo Cain to win 6-4.

As usual, I won’t write much here about what you just saw on TV. What I will do is supply some color in the form of post-game quotes and fold this over into my weekly Sunday Notes column.

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Mike Moustakas on homering for the third consecutive game and executing a sacrifice bunt in the ninth inning: “That’s how we’re playing the game right now. Any way we’re going to score runs, we’re going to score. If that means sac bunting or hit-and-running – anything to generate runs – we’re fine with it. But I’m seeing the ball good right now. I’m getting good pitches to hit and I’m not missing them.”

Lorenzo Cain on making a spectacular diving catch in right-center field: “Zone in and make the play. I don’t think about messing up. I’m not a guy who is scared or fearful about making a mistake. I’m willing to lay out and do whatever it takes to make a play. I’m going to continue to play that way. I’ve played that way my entire life.”

Ned Yost on the Royals benefiting from some soft hits: “That’s good hitting, yeah. I’ll take bloop hits all day long. They get bloop hits, too. They’re a little bit aggravating.”

Buck Showalter on decision-making and being down two games to none: “I could go over about a hundred decisions Ned and I have to make, and the players, more importantly, have to make. It can be kind of maddening if you let it, but you trust your instincts and know your guys. You’ve got to win four games. You’ve got to keep from losing more than three. That’s obviously oversimplifying it.”

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A lot has been written about Buck Showalter in recent weeks, and deservedly so. The quotable manager has achieved cult status in Baltimore, and if he leads the Orioles to the promised land – a more daunting task than it was 24 hours ago – Earl Weaver might eventually have company in Camden Yards statue land.

Less has been written about Ned Yost – at least in regard to positive print – so let’s spill some cyberspace ink on the much-maligned Royals skipper. After all, his holy-crap-they-might-win-it-all team is currently in the driver’s seat against Showalter’s squad in the ALCS.

Let’s start with some words from outfielder Lorenzo Cain, who has been setting the world on fire since I spoke with him at the outset of the series.

“I would say he was kind of conservative to start the season,” Cain told me. “Toward the end here he’s been a lot more aggressive, changing pitchers and making moves. He changed the lineup – one, two, three – and that’s definitely an aggressive move. You have to take risks in this game to be successful and that’s what he’s doing.

“Buck Showalter is a really good manager, but we have a really good manager as well. Managing and making moves is definitely going to come into play in this series, but as players we understand we have to get it done on the field. A manager can make moves, but at the end of the day, we have to go out there and perform.”

So far, Cain has held up his end of the bargain. He’s 6 for 8 with a pair of walks, and his defense in center field has been immaculate. Read the rest of this entry »


ALCS Game One: The Royals Power Up

The story lines have been the same all week. The Orioles hit home runs and the Royals steal bases. Both teams have deep, lock-down bullpens. One manager is sly as a fox and the other is a tactical error waiting to happen. That pretty much covers it.

Actually, one other notable theme crept in: According to FanGraphs odds, the Royals came in with a 63 percent chance of winning the ALCS. Meanwhile, the betting line in Las Vegas favored the Orioles. Baltimore reliever Darren O’Day had a great take on the contradiction.

“My wife told me something about our odds to win the World Series,” O’Day said prior to the game. “But the four teams who had the best odds [coming into the playoffs] are now at home, so I don’t know that the odds mean much.”

Odds were that tonight’s game wouldn’t go as scripted – it seems they rarely do in the postseason – and to say it didn’t would be stating the obvious. Any script it may have followed was implausible. This was an unpredictable baseball game, which lends credence to O’Day’s words.

Another thing the Baltimore sidewinder said about the series stands out, and it ended up being irony in its highest form.

“Juxtaposed are the speed and the power,” said O’Day. “It will be exciting to see how we control the running game and how they keep our guys in the park. Two different styles.”

The Royals adapted their opponent’s style and won – the final was 8-6 in 10 innings – not because of their running game, but because the Orioles couldn’t keep them in the park. That didn’t fit the supposed story line, but it was less surprising than one might think. The Kansas City lineup is by no means power-packed, but Camden Yards isn’t Kauffman Stadium. It’s a veritable launching pad.

“People say they’re not a home-run-hitting team, but that’s because they play in a huge ballpark,” said Orioles first baseman Steve Pearce. “We probably wouldn’t be a huge home-run-hitting team if we played there either. They’re fast, but they can also play a little bit. They can hit.”

Hit they did. In the top of the third, Alcides Escobar homered. Later in the inning, Alex Gordon cleared the bases with a double. In the 10th, Gordon took O’Day out of the yard to give the Royals the lead. Three batters later, Mike Moustakas went deep as well.

“This is a park that’s a lot more conducive to hitting home runs than our ballpark is,” Kansas City manager Ned Yost said after the game. “If you put our club in this ballpark, we’d hit a lot more home runs than we ended up hitting. It showed tonight.”

Buck Showalter was also asked about Kansas City’s power surge, and likewise offered little sign of surprise. He did show some matter-of-fact disappointment regarding the outcome, as well as appreciation for great theater.

“They’ve been hitting home runs lately,” said the Orioles skipper. “It is what it is. It was a good ballgame, except the Orioles didn’t win. It was entertaining.”


Sunday Notes: Adam Jones, Kinsler’s Glove, Price’s Cutter, Britton’s Sinker, more

What is the best way to attack Adam Jones? The answer would seemingly be to avoid the strike zone. The Orioles outfielder walked just 19 times in 682 plate appearances – that’s a 2.8 walk-rate, folks – and his 56.5 Swing% was the highest in the American League. His 42.1 O-Swing% was topped only by Salvador Perez.

Unfortunately for the opposition, while Jones chases pitchers’ pitches, he also chases pitchers by getting hits on some of those pitches. His 63.0 O-Contact% isn’t particularly high, but that says more about his proclivity to sometimes chase pitches in a different area code. If it’s close enough to the zone, he has a knack for getting knocks.

In the words of David Price, “I don’t think there’s a pitch Adam Jones doesn’t think he can hit, and he might be right.” An American League pitching coach offered a similar perspective, saying “Adam Jones will swing at a ball that bounces in the dirt and he’ll also swing at a ball that’s neck high. The difference between him and other guys who do that is he’s like Vladimir Guerrero – he can hit those pitches. One time this year he lined a ball back through the middle on a pitch that was six feet high. It was ridiculous.” Read the rest of this entry »


Orioles-Tigers Game 2: Another Step Toward Respect

The numbers – at least some of them – suggested the Tigers would win Game 2. Justin Verlander was on the mound with a record of 7-0 and a 2.84 ERA in eight starts at Camden Yards. His record in seven ALDS starts was 4-0 with a 1.79 ERA. Baltimore starter Wei-Yin Chen had a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against Detroit and had never pitched in the postseason.

There was also perception. While not without flaws, the Tigers are a superstar-laden club capable of turning it on at any time. The Orioles – you know the refrain by now – aren’t as good as their record and destined to fall to earth.

Of course, this is baseball. Verlander out-pitched Chen, but the story often goes well beyond the starting pitchers. And while Detroit’s all-too-predictable bullpen implosion is going to get the most ink, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that a resilient team was once again resilient. This game wasn’t only about the Tigers losing.

I wrote it last night and it bears repeating: The Orioles are good. This is not a statement based on a two-game sample, nor is it bandwagon jumping. I predicted a postseason berth for Buck Showalter’s team in March and they certainly held up their end of the bargain. The team no one seems to respect is now 98-66.

According to writers covering the ALDS, Orioles fans aren’t off base in complaining their team doesn’t get the credit they deserve. Everyone I queried was in accord with that belief. Lack of star power, particularly in the starting rotation, was a common theme. Also mentioned was market. Baltimore isn’t Boston or New York.

As for projections and how the Orioles got to this point – one win from the ALCS – allow me to say something atypical of a FanGraphs article: Read the rest of this entry »


Orioles-Tigers: Notes from Game One

At some point people are going to come around to the fact that the Baltimore Orioles are good. They finished the regular season 96-66 and I’m sorry, you don’t do that with smoke and mirrors.

Tonight, the Orioles smoked the Tigers 12-3 in Game One of the ALDS. They did so with power, an 8-run eighth, and four innings of exemplary bullpen usage. There’s no point in recapping what you watched on TV, but here are a few perspectives from post-game interviews, as well as relevant comments from Wednesday’s media session.

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Victor Martinez struck out once every 15.26 plate appearances this year, the best mark in the league. He fanned just 42 times, making him the first player to hit at least 30 home runs with 45-or-fewer strikeouts since Barry Bonds turned the trick in 2004. V-Mart’s .409 OBP led the American League and was second to Andrew McCutchen’s .410 overall.

Finding a way to contain Martinez – and Miguel Cabrera – is a priority for the Orioles. Martinez struck out twice tonight – something he did just three times during the regular season – but he also went deep, as did Cabrera.

In the opinion of an American League pitching coach I spoke to earlier this week, there is no one way to get them out. Read the rest of this entry »