Many fans in New York are probably still in shock over the Yankees’ early expulsion from the 2011 playoffs. The truth is, though, that the dynasty is waning. That’s not to say that it’s over, by any means, but the unstoppable juggernaut of years past has been affected by Father Time.

The majority of the players that make up the team’s core are over 30 years old, including C.C. Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, A.J. Burnett, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher. Even Curtis Granderson, a breakout 2011 player, is already 30. Although it’s hard to fathom, within a few years Rivera, Posada, Jeter, and even Rodriguez will be retired from the game.

What does this mean for the Yankees? Is there an existing core of somewhat youthful players that the organization can use to rebuild – or perhaps renovate is a better word – its dynasty.

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When the Yankees announced their signing of Rafael Soriano, General Manager Brian Cashman admitted that he wasn’t fully behind the move. Rarely has an announcement of a big-ticket signing come with such an admission from the team’s General Manager:

I’m charged with getting the payroll down, and this certainly will help us try to win a championship. There’s no doubt about that, so that’s in the plus column, but I didn’t recommend it, just because I didn’t think it was an efficient way to allocate the remaining resources we have, and we had a lot of debate about that … My plan would be patience and waiting. They obviously acted. And we are better, there’s no doubt about it.

That Cashman didn’t find the signing to be an efficient allocation of resources is particularly telling, as many around baseball have questioned spending so much on a bullpen. Our own Dave Cameron has often talked about overspending on relievers, but this is about spending on the team level. Have the Yankees spent too much on the bullpen for the upcoming season? How does their spending this year stack up against years’ past, and other teams?

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Much of the talk this week surrounding the Yankees has centered on the final game at Yankee Stadium. It is natural for nostalgic love to kick in when something widely considered an historical monument reaches its last legs, but what many have not discussed thus far is how one of the players who calls the stadium home is in the midst of his best season to date. Yes, Mariano Rivera, the 39-yr old closer for the Yankees, the best postseason closer of all time and likely the best overall closer as well, is putting the finishing touches on a masterpiece of a season.

Someone his age, who throws virtually one pitch, will not usually improve as the years pile on, but what he has done this year is nothing short of remarkable. And, for the record, I will be able to show just how great this year is without ever mentioning his saves total. In 68.1 innings, Rivera has given up a measly 41 hits, just 4 of which are home runs. Get ready for his other controllable skills. He has struck out 74 hitters and issued just 6 free passes! 6! That is a 12.33 K/BB ratio. His WHIP is 0.69, and when you add in his two hit batsmen it does not get much higher.

With an 87.6% LOB, which could very well be sustainable for a closer of his ilk, Mo has an ERA of just 1.45 this year. His FIP suggests it should be around 2.06, but still, 2.06 is not too shabby either. His 1996 season was quite dominant as well, but he was still setting up John Wetteland at that juncture. Since 1997, when Rivera became the full-time closer, he has never been better than right now, as he is posting highs/lows in ERA, FIP, WHIP, BAA, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, and LOB.

Looking at his win based metrics, his 4.36 WPA ranks second in baseball amongst relievers to Brad Lidge, who by all accounts is also having a fantastic season. Rivera leads all relievers in WPA/LI, however. WPA is a better stat to look at for closers primarily because they are pitching in high leverage situations, and they are going to be judged by how well they perform in like situations. It would still depend on how often the closer gets to appear and in what situations, but suffice it to say, Rivera has been the best closer in the AL this year (sorry K-Rod), and only Brad Lidge is going to give him a run for his money in the entire sport. This may be the last year of Yankee Stadium, but its beloved closer is going out in style, producing the best closed season of his career… oddly enough, it will be the first time his team misses the playoffs since he took over the reigns.

This offseason there was much speculation that the Yankees were going to lose Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera to free agency. All three returned with shiny new contracts. Rivera, widely considered the greatest closer of all time, may be getting up there in age but his current stats would surely disagree.

Last year he experienced what was determined to be his “worst” season as a closer. In 67 games he posted a 3.15 ERA. Oh god that’s terrible! His ERA was the highest it had ever been as a closer and that, combined with his 4 blown saves and age resulted in many wondering what he had left in the tank. Well, he is off to a tremendous start this year and, by all statistical accounts, last year wasn’t as bad as the media made it out to be.

His 2007 FIP came in at 2.65, suggesting his ERA leaned on the unlucky side. He struck out 74 batters in 71.1 IP, walking only 12, which greatly aided his 1.12 WHIP. Additionally, he wasn’t throwing any slower—93.6 mph compared to 93.8 the year before. Take ERA out of the equation and what exactly did Rivera do wrong last year?

Anyways, back to this year. In 23 games Rivera currently has a 0.36 ERA, 1.32 FIP, and 0.52 WHIP. The FIP and WHIP are just about one-half of his 2007 totals. In 25 innings he has given up 11 hits and two walks while striking out 24. His BB/9 of 0.72 is the lowest it has ever been and he has stranded 92.3% of the runners that reach base; his career LOB% is 79.3%.

Batters are hitting just .135 against him with a .191 BABIP. Pizza Cutter discussed Troy Percival’s knack for posting low opponent BABIPs and Dave Studeman commented that it isn’t that unlikely for elite relievers to follow suit. Rivera’s career BABIP is .278 and, since 1997 (when he became the full time closer) he has held it under .280 in seven different seasons.

Rivera’s career rates of balls in play are 16.4% LD/54.2% GB/29.4% FB. This year, he is posting the same 16.4% LD but has traded in seven percent of his grounders for flyballs; flyballs that stay in the park as evidenced by his no home runs allowed.

Interestingly enough, Rivera’s gmLI, which measures the leverage index at the time of his entrance is 1.88, the highest it’s been since 2002. The difficulty level clearly has not phased him yet as his 2.49 WPA dictates a contribution of 2.5 wins in just 23 games.

With the new design of the home page up and running I recently noticed that Orioles closer George Sherrill not only has the oldest-sounding name in baseball but also leads all relievers with a 2.03 WPA. Sherrill, part of the Erik Bedard trade, has 17 saves out of the Orioles 23 wins; his saves:team wins percentage of 73.9 leads all closers as well.

Something interesting about his success—other than the fact that five of his saves have come against his former employer Seattle—is his higher than expected 3.43 ERA. Granted, ERA is not too useful of a barometer when analyzing the efforts of a closer, but his high saves total and high WPA led me to believe he has been shutting down opponents with the greatest of ease.

A closer look at his game logs shows that, of his 8 earned runs allowed, three have come in non-save situations and another two in his blown saves. In all successfully converted saves, Sherrill has allowed just three earned runs. Despite this relative success, there are four other closers who have been performing extremely well while surrendering next to nothing, regardless of whether or not their appearances coincide with blown saves or non-save situations.

Billy Wagner: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 19 K
Brad Lidge: 19 GP, 19 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 21 K
BJ Ryan: 14 GP, 14 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 17 K
Mariano Rivera: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K

Here are the averages of these four stacked up next to Sherrill:

Sherrill: 21 GP, 21 IP, 13 H, 8 ER, 10 BB, 16 K
Others: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 17 K

Another interesting area to look at is the situation in which the closer entered. Coming into a bases loaded, no out situation with a one-run lead is much different than entering into a nobody on, one out situation with a two-run lead. The statistic gmLI measures the difficulty level when the pitcher entered the game. Here are the average gmLIs of these five closers:

Wagner: 1.34
Lidge: 1.83
Ryan: 2.10
Rivera: 1.65
Sherrill: 2.21

Generally speaking, the average LI, or neutral event, is 1.00; 10% of all events will be over 2.00.

Sherrill has the highest average gmLI of the five while Wagner has the lowest. While it is definitely remarkable that Wagner is yet to surrender an earned run—he has given up 4 unearned runs—it looks as though Sherrill has been less successful in preventing runs due to pitching in much tougher situations.

These other four may have better peripherals, but do not let Sherrill’s ERA fool you: In just 21 innings pitched he has contributed two wins while pitching in tough situations.