Danny Hultzen went 1-4, with a 5.92 ERA in 12 starts for Triple-A Tacoma this year. In today’s what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, some people could look at those numbers and discount him as a top prospect. But that would be a mistake.

The Seattle Mariners took the 23-year-old (as of tomorrow) southpaw second-overall in the 2011 draft for a reason: He knows how to pitch. Hultzen logged a 1.19 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 13 Double-A starts before moving up to Tacoma. His Double-A performance is every bit as telling as his Triple-A speed bump. When you finish your first professional season one step from the big leagues, your future is bright.

Hultzen talked about his approach to pitching — and his second-half struggles — near the end of this year’s minor league season.

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David Laurila: How do you get guys out?

Danny Hultzen: My mentality is to keep things simple. I attack the hitter, and by that, I mean coming at him aggressively by throwing everything in the strike zone and not being afraid of anybody. I’ve found that if you keep that aggressive mentality, you have a better shot than if you try to trick people.

DL: Has your approach changed since coming to pro ball?

DH: A little bit. In college, you can rely more on your fastball. You can attack hitters that way. I still do that in pro ball, but at the same time, these guys are really good fastball hitters. It doesn’t really matter how hard you throw, they can turn on it, so it’s more important to hit your spots and keep the ball down. It’s important to mix pitches, because if you become predictable — even if you’re throwing hard — these guys will punish you for it.

DL: Does velocity still matter?

DH: It does, but at the same time, it doesn’t. The harder you throw, the more mistakes you can get away with. But at the higher levels, you don’t get away with as many. I’ve seen guys throw 98 and get turned around. What velocity does is not force you to be as perfect.

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Major League Baseball’s 2012 amateur draft is less than a week away. The first round is scheduled for June 4, beginning at 7 p.m. EST, and the next 39 rounds will be on June 5 (rounds two through 15) and June 6 (rounds 16 through 40), beginning at noon EST on both days.

The draft will be interesting for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the overall talent is considered one of the weakest in recent memory; second, new rules have been implemented by MLB in an effort to control draft spending. Among many other changes, each team will be given a pool of money to spend (based on the number and position of their picks) and penalties can be assessed for exceeding the “recommended” funds.

Because teams are limited by the amount of money they can spend, you’re likely to see a lot of good prep players, who are not consensus first-round talents, head to college because they won’t be able to sign above-slot deals after being selected later in the draft, like in the past. As well, junior college enrollement could skyrocket because that route allows players to re-enter the draft after just one year, rather than wait three seasons with the four-year college route.

Below is my take on the first round selections. It is not a guess of what teams will do; it’s a ranking of what I would do if I were running the draft war room for each team. I drafted without considering each club’s willingness to spend money on the draft, and I looked to take who I considered the best player available — based on scouting reports, word of mouth and first-hand observation.

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Brendan Ryan is the best defensive shortstop in baseball, despite what Gold Glove voters want you to believe. The slick-fielding Mariner is annually snubbed, but he boasts the highest UZR at his position during the past three-plus seasons. The Fielding Bible panelists have noticed. They awarded him their own Gold Gloves in 2010 and 2011. Most Seattle fans have, as well, although they probably wouldn’t mind a little more offense. Doing his best Ray Oyler impersonation, Ryan is currently hitting just .165/.288/.248.

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David Laurila: Why are you a good defensive shortstop?

Brendan Ryan: I take a lot of pride on the defensive side. Even going back to high school, it is something that has come a little bit easier to me. I also came up in the Cardinals system and worked with Jose Oquendo. He really helped me simplify my footwork, and everything else. We spent hours and hours and hours working together. Beyond that, you have to throw in instincts, you have to throw in positioning — all of that stuff. It’s kind of a hard question to answer.

DL: The Fielding Bible rates you as the top defensive shortstop in baseball. Does that make up for not winning a Gold Glove?

BR: It’s definitely been a little bit frustrating. Read the rest of this entry »

Tom McNamara is playing a major role in the Mariners’ rebuilding efforts. Seattle’s scouting director for each of the past three drafts, McNamara added a franchise cornerstone when he took Dustin Ackley with the second-overall pick in 2009. A year later, he selected a raw high school right-hander named Taijuan Walker — now the team’s top-prospect — 43rd overall. Last June, he boldly nabbed left-hander Danny Hultzen with the second pick of a draft considered to have been one of the deepest in years.

McNamara talked about his scouting philosophy — including what he has learned working under Jack Zduriencik — and the decisions to take Walker and Hultzen.

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On scouting Hultzen: “About two weeks before the draft we set up our board. We’re running around, seeing players all spring, and then we get into that room and start ranking the players. I keep it simple. We take the best guy and Dan fit that bill for us.

“I saw Dan pitch in high school, so we had a history with him. We saw him all three years in college and he improved each year. He was a Friday-night guy at Virginia, in a good conference, and [last year] I got to see him four times against pitchers who went in the first three rounds. We’d had our eyes on him all spring and wanted to make sure we saw him as much as we could.”

On Zduriencik‘s role in the draft: Read the rest of this entry »

When the Seattle Mariners dealt left-hander Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers for a package centered around first baseman Justin Smoak, my initial reaction was surprise – the New York Yankees were in the hunt and had apparently offered their top prospect, only to be rebuffed at the 11th hour. In March, a spring training piece I wrote on Montero included even stronger sentiment:

Jesus Montero has a chance to have a very special career for the New York Yankees, or any franchise he may be dealt to. Personally, I thought the Seattle Mariners were nuts for wanting Justin Smoak over Jesus Montero at the trade deadline last season.

Having never had the opportunity to scout Smoak in person, my frame of reference for discussing Smoak became Montero as he still ranks as the best pure hitting prospect I’ve had the opportunity to scout.

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Wendy and Matt have already covered the NL West and AL Central, so let’s continue to show that we here at FanGraphs are not subject to East Coast bias and look at the other set of second baseman on the left coast: the AL West. Due to the presence of the A’s and Mariners, the AL West does not generally project as a strong offensive division, but second base is the exception with two All-Stars, a potential star, and the younger brother of an All-Star second baseman. Let us know how you think these players will perform next year.

Texas has the most well established player in the division in Ian Kinsler, a player with a strong walk rate and excellent power for his position. Last season, he posted the 4th highest WAR total in the American League on the strength of a .370 wOBA. Pretty impressive considering his .243 BABIP was 39 points below his career average. The big factor was that he eclipsed 650 plate appearances for the first time in his career. No one has ever doubted Kinsler’s talent level – for his career he has posted 4.64 WAR per 650 plate appearances – just his durability. This is the big question going into 2012, along with whether he can maintain his power while simultaneously raising his BABIP. It may be a coincidence, but the two seasons in which he has posted an ISO above .220, he has had BABIP’s of .241 and .243. All of his other seasons have resulted in ISO’s below .200, and BABIP’s ranging from .279 to .334. Read the rest of this entry »

Brendan Ryan isn’t a scuba diver or a dog catcher. The 29-year-old Cardinal-turned-Mariner is a middle infielder — a pretty good one at that — but when a little subterfuge is in order, he can be most anything. Above all, he can be one of baseball’s more engaging personalities, as adept with a quip as he is with scooping up a ground ball. Befitting a .256-liftime hitter with limited pop, he is also appreciative for the opportunity to wear a big league uniform, which he did last year in Seattle after spending four seasons with St. Louis.

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David Laurila: How did you end up attending college in Idaho?

Brendan Ryan: First of all, it was a very different experience. I grew up south of Hollywood, east of Beverly Hills, and west of downtown, so I was right in the middle of L.A. To go from that to Lewiston, Idaho, a town of 30,000, was culture shock. Things were slower, to say the least.

How did I get there? In high school I was busier playing baseball, and being rewarded with detention, than taking my studies as seriously as I should have. My family and I thought that Lewis and Clark State might be a good fit, because there would be fewer distractions. I also had an opportunity to play there on a scholarship.

DL: Was culture shock a valuable lesson leading into pro ball?
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The Detroit Tigers made a move that will help them today and in the future, acquiring starting pitcher Doug Fister from the Seattle Mariners. The Tigers will also receive reliever David Pauley, and will send Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush, Francisco Martinez and a PTBNL to Seattle.

With Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello already in place, the Tigers headed into the trade deadline looking for a back-end starter. Fister, owner of a 3.33 ERA, will slide in nicely behind Detroit’s other arms. While Fister’s ERA is certainly a result of Safeco Field and the Mariners’ defense, he is by no means a product of a great situation. Fister’s xFIP currently sits below 4.00, as does his SIERA. While his league-average numbers are all well and good, Fister’s value comes from his contract situation. The 27-year old won’t be arbitration eligible until 2013, giving the Tigers another year or two of very cheap production.

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We are pleased to welcome David Laurila to the FanGraphs staff. He’s an accomplished journalist who was accepted into the Baseball Writer’s Association of America in December, and has become one of the premier interviewers of those in and around the game. We’re excited to bring his series of excellent Q&As to FanGraphs, and the series kicks of today with a certain reigning Cy Young award winner.

Few, if any, hurlers combine overpowering stuff and pitching acumen quite like Felix Hernandez. The Mariners workhorse has dominated the American League each of the past two-plus seasons, going 19-5 in 2009 and capturing the Cy Young Award last year despite logging just 13 wins. He’s done so with an array of offerings, all of which induce weak contact and swings and misses on a consistent basis. The 25-year-old right-hander led the league in numerous categories in 2010, including ERA, innings pitched, and hits per nine innings. He topped all American League pitchers in WAR and finished second in strikeouts. In eight starts this season he is 4-2, 3.02, including a pair of complete games.

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David Laurila: How would you define yourself as a pitcher?

Felix Hernandez: I’m a smart pitcher. I’m a hard thrower who knows what he has to do. I know myself and go by my strengths and not by the guys who are hitting. I know what I have to do. That’s me.

DL: Do you use video or scouting reports?

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There was something oddly fitting about both a statue of Bud Selig being unveiled and the final set of leaked MLB financial documents becoming public on Tuesday. Selig has said on more than one occasion that we’re witnessing the “Golden Era” of baseball, citing the economic windfall that has come to the league over the last decade. Revenue-sharing, a pride and joy of Selig’s, is at the center of the largest public release of club financial documents – leaked to Deadspin – that include the Pirates, Rays, Mariners, Marlins, Angels, and Rangers (see them all here).

In July of 2000, with the league claiming projected losses of $232 million for the 2001 season, Selig came before Congress with his Blue Ribbon Panel on Baseball Economics report, which at its heart states, “Proper competitive balance will not exist until every well-run club has a regularly recurring reasonable hope of reaching postseason play.” The report then went on to say that, “The limited revenue sharing and payroll tax that were approved as part of MLB’s 1996 Collective Bargaining Agreement with the Major League Baseball Players Association have produced neither the intended moderating of payroll disparities nor improved competitive balance. Some low-revenue clubs, believing the amount of their proceeds from revenue sharing insufficient to enable them to become competitive, used those proceeds to become modestly profitable.”

So, with each Collective Bargaining Agreement since, revenue-sharing has been increased, funneling money from the haves to the have-nots of the league in order to gain competitive balance. In 2009, $433 million in revenue-sharing moved from high-revenue clubs to those in need of assistance.

Along the way, sizable increases in the amount of “central revenue” has found its way into club coffers. The growth of national television money from ESPN, FOX Sports, and TBS which total approx. $660 million a year in rights fees funnel back to each of the 30 clubs. Add in annual dividend checks from MLB Advanced Media of $2 million, revenues from MLB Properties, international broadcast agreements, etc.,  and all clubs, large revenue-making, or not, have found extra money that can be used to help produce a winning product on the diamond.

Still, the field would remain unlevel without revenue-sharing tied to net local revenues, so with the leaked Deadspin docs having three clubs (the Pirates, Marlins, and Rays) that have received considerable amounts via the revenue-sharing system, the documents provide ammunition for clubs such as the Yankees and Red Sox when collective bargaining begins in earnest shortly after the World Series ends.

Parsing the documents, here’s how much revenue-sharing was either received or paid out for a given year:

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