This was written in January, but is being re-posted with Villanueva on his way to Chicago as part of the Ryan Dempster trade.

In 2011, Hickory was a hotbed of minor league talent including the best true shortstop prospect in baseball and multiple first round picks in catcher Kellin Deglan, center fielder Jake Skole and pitcher Luke Jackson. If not for being blown away by Boston Red Sox shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts, my trip to Greenville would have been highlighted by a modestly performing, all but unknown third base prospect named Christian Villanueva. Villanueva went on to belt 10 home runs and steal 14/15 bases over the final two months of the season raising his prospect profile to legitimate sleeper.

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A number of big-league position players were once pitchers. Blessed with strong arms, they excelled on the mound, as well as at the plate, against amateur competition. Only a few would be able to return to the hill with any chance of success against professional hitters. Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland is among them.

In high school, Moreland logged a record of 25-2 and in his senior year he had a 0.53 ERA with 112 strikeouts in 55 innings. Continuing as a two-way player at Mississippi State, he made 25 appearances out of the bullpen, logging a pair of saves and going 5-0, 3.31 with 45 strikeouts in 33 innings. One year after being taken in the 17th round of the 2007 draft, he had a brief flirtation with returning to the mound.

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David Laurila: What is your background as a pitcher?

Mitch Moreland: Pitching is kind of how I got my recognition as a player. It seems like everybody recruited me as a pitcher. I only had about three schools that wanted me to hit.

I didn’t have a whole lot of professional scouts looking at me coming out of high school. I went to college as a two-way guy, at Mississippi State, and I did pitch a little there. I ended up throwing about 40 innings. When draft time came, I thought I was going to get drafted as a pitcher, but I ended up getting drafted as a hitter, by Texas.

Texas actually brought me into instrux, in 2008, to pitch. Read the rest of this entry »

As a rule, scouting directors are among the humblest people you’ll find in professional baseball. Almost to a fault, they’ll deflect credit away from themselves while lauding the efforts of others. Kip Fagg of the Texas Rangers is no exception, but you could hardly blame him if he wanted to take a bow. Under his leadership, the Rangers have signed as many potentially elite players as any team in baseball in recent years.

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Fagg, on 2011 first-round pick Kevin Matthews not being ranked among the top 20 prospects in the system: “I believe it shows the strength of our system and what our scouts have done. We have a good group of guys involved in our scouting and we all see each other’s players. I see a ton of international guys. Under the direction of [Senior Director of Player Personnel] A.J. Preller, [Senior Advisor to the GM, Scouting] Don Welke, [Director of Pro Scouting] Josh Boyd, and [Director of International Scouting] Mike Daly, the whole group has done a tremendous job identifying interesting players that are high-end with upside. It‘s a group effort.”

“In regard to where Kevin, or any of our players, are ranked, it doesn’t alarm me too much or excite me too much. Rankings are subjective and opinions vary on where certain players show up on various lists. I’ve also been doing this for a long time and understand that this is a process. Young kids with Kevin’s upside will take some time to mature and develop. Scouting, and baseball in general, are very humbling experiences, so I try not to get caught up in rankings, especially when the player is only one or two years into the pro game. So much can change in four or five years.”

INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS

On the team’s success in the international market: Read the rest of this entry »

Wendy and Matt have already covered the NL West and AL Central, so let’s continue to show that we here at FanGraphs are not subject to East Coast bias and look at the other set of second baseman on the left coast: the AL West. Due to the presence of the A’s and Mariners, the AL West does not generally project as a strong offensive division, but second base is the exception with two All-Stars, a potential star, and the younger brother of an All-Star second baseman. Let us know how you think these players will perform next year.

Texas has the most well established player in the division in Ian Kinsler, a player with a strong walk rate and excellent power for his position. Last season, he posted the 4th highest WAR total in the American League on the strength of a .370 wOBA. Pretty impressive considering his .243 BABIP was 39 points below his career average. The big factor was that he eclipsed 650 plate appearances for the first time in his career. No one has ever doubted Kinsler’s talent level – for his career he has posted 4.64 WAR per 650 plate appearances – just his durability. This is the big question going into 2012, along with whether he can maintain his power while simultaneously raising his BABIP. It may be a coincidence, but the two seasons in which he has posted an ISO above .220, he has had BABIP’s of .241 and .243. All of his other seasons have resulted in ISO’s below .200, and BABIP’s ranging from .279 to .334. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, Eno Sarris covered the potential cost of Yu Darvish by using Major League comps, eventually settling on a Jordan Zimmermann comp to go along with the $100 million price tag. While this is certainly not a financial commitment for the faint of heart, the rumour mill is saying that the Blue Jays have submitted the top bid for the Japanese star. However, Nippon Ham is under no obligation to take the highest bid, and there have been rumors swirling around the Rangers as well. While we will find out who the official winner is by Tuesday, let’s take a preliminary look at how Darvish would fit on these two teams, and which fit is best.

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In three years scouting prospects, the instances in which a highly touted prospect is even better than advertised are few and far between. In the case of Texas Rangers prospect Jurickson Profar, I arrived in Greenville expecting to see a talented, but maybe not elite shortstop prospect and left with a firm belief Profar was the best true shortstop prospect in all of baseball.

As a person who’s much more conservative in my approach to scouting than political leanings, the terms “elite”, “franchise”, “all-star”, “gold glove” rarely find their way into my scouting reports. In actuality, most critiques thrown my way involve my being too critical. In the case of Jurickson Profar, I’ve scoured my notes and video to identify problem areas in his all-around game, but I simply can’t find any. At present, the young shortstop is as complete a position prospect as one could hope to find at any level of the minor leagues.

Video after the Jump Read the rest of this entry »

With an FIP a full half-run less than the South Atlantic League leader, to suggest that Rangers pitching prospect Cody Buckel excelled would be an understatement. Statistically, the young right-hander, whose pitching mechanics aim to emulate Giants Tim Lincecum, successfully utilized a four-pitch mix to overwhelm both younger and older hitters at the level. So why then was he only considered the 19th best prospect in the league ranking behind Colorado Rockies Tyler Matzek, who combined for a 6.22 ERA in 2011? The answer lies in Buckel’s upside projection, which falls below that of his higher velocity, bigger-bodied counterparts.

Video after the jump

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This past weekend the Rangers clinched the AL West, their first division championship since 1999. Many things have gone well for the Rangers this season, and while a full look back will be worth doing after the playoffs, this post, like Friday’s on the Minnesota Twins, is a forward-looking post about their starting rotation going into the American League playoffs.

The simplistic take on past Rangers teams has been “good hitting, bad pitching.” This has always been at least a bit problematic in the past because the Rangers’ home park has tended to exaggerate both their hitters’ prowess and their pitchers’ futility, at least when looking at raw stats. This season, they’ve hit well, but their pitching has taken a step up. One season’s stats don’t tell the whole story, so while I’ll list each player’s 2010 statistics, I’ll also include numbers from the most recent update of CHONE’s pitcher projections (using CHONE’s context-neutral component nERA and also a FIP I derived from the stat line) to give a sense of each pitcher’s current “true talent.”

1) Cliff Lee, CHONE: 3.29 nERA , 3.16 FIP
2010: 6.6 WAR, 2.66 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 2.75 tERA, 3.29 ERA

I’d call Lee the other forgotten AL Cy Young candidate, except I just remembered that what a player does in May and June doesn’t count for awards voting. But hasn’t Lee been a lot worse in Texas, anyway? Let’s see, his K/9 rate is slightly higher. His walk rate has doubled all the way up to over one per nine innings, and his HR/FB rate skyrocketed to almost league average. His xFIP in Seattle was 3.21; in Texas, it is 3.35. Whatever might be going on with Lee’s back, it looks to me like he’s basically the same pitcher as he was in Seattle, except he forgot not to let his HR/FB ratio regress to the mean when moving from one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league to one of the most hitter-friendly parks. Since 2008, Cliff Lee been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Of the likely AL playoff starters, only Francisco Liriano and CC Sabathia really match up with Lee.

2) C.J. Wilson, CHONE: 3.13 nERA,* 3.53 FIP*
2010: 4.2 WAR, 3.58 FIP, 4.23 xFIP, 3.78 tERA, 3.15 ERA

I include the asterisks because it looks like CHONE is still projecting him as a reliever. I’m not sure how CHONE or other projection systems handle reliever-starter switches, and obviously it needs to be accounted for. The (very) general rule is to add one to a reliever’s FIP/ERA to see what he would produce as a starter. That is a only a general guideline, though, and Wilson has outperformed all but the loftiest expectations of his transition into a starting role. Wilson walks a lot of batters, and his 4.23 xFIP reflects some good fortune on fly balls (5.1% HR/FB ratio, the league average this season is about twice that). However, Wilson strikes out a lot of hitters and keeps the ball on the ground enough to make it work.

3) Colby Lewis, CHONE: 3.47 nERA , 3.48 FIP
2010: 4.4 WAR, 3.52 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 3.51 tERA, 3.72 ERA

Lewis has probably been better than Wilson; he has a better FIP, xFIP and tERA. Lewis hasn’t quite had Wilson’s good fortune on fly balls (although Lewis certainly hasn’t been unlucky) , and that’s a bit more of a problem because he’s a flyball pitcher. However, he has a very good walk rate and a higher 2010 K/9 rate than any of the other starters on Texas’ staff.

4) Tommy Hunter, CHONE: 4.83 nERA , 5.07 FIP
2010: 0.7 WAR, 5.02 FIP, 4.75 xFIP, 5.20 tERA, 3.83 ERA

…and then there’s Tommy Hunter. Yes, his ERA is good this season, and yes, xFIP indicates he’s has some bad luck. But he’s basically the Rangers’ version of Nick Blackburn. I guess Hunter strikes out a few more hitters than Blackburn, but he also walks more and gives up more fly balls. Basically, he’s an acceptable back-of-the-rotation starter during the regular season who a team really shouldn’t want to count on during the postseason.

The good news for Rangers fans is that Texas may not have to start Hunter in the Divisional Series, as the team is considering pitching Lee on short rest. As far as I can tell, the Rangers are the only team in the American League with three starters each over 4.0 WAR so far this season. Assuming Lee is healthy (and I doubt the Rangers would consider pitching him on short rest if they didn’t think so), the combination of Lee, Lewis and Wilson may be the best “top three” in the AL playoffs.

There was something oddly fitting about both a statue of Bud Selig being unveiled and the final set of leaked MLB financial documents becoming public on Tuesday. Selig has said on more than one occasion that we’re witnessing the “Golden Era” of baseball, citing the economic windfall that has come to the league over the last decade. Revenue-sharing, a pride and joy of Selig’s, is at the center of the largest public release of club financial documents – leaked to Deadspin – that include the Pirates, Rays, Mariners, Marlins, Angels, and Rangers (see them all here).

In July of 2000, with the league claiming projected losses of $232 million for the 2001 season, Selig came before Congress with his Blue Ribbon Panel on Baseball Economics report, which at its heart states, “Proper competitive balance will not exist until every well-run club has a regularly recurring reasonable hope of reaching postseason play.” The report then went on to say that, “The limited revenue sharing and payroll tax that were approved as part of MLB’s 1996 Collective Bargaining Agreement with the Major League Baseball Players Association have produced neither the intended moderating of payroll disparities nor improved competitive balance. Some low-revenue clubs, believing the amount of their proceeds from revenue sharing insufficient to enable them to become competitive, used those proceeds to become modestly profitable.”

So, with each Collective Bargaining Agreement since, revenue-sharing has been increased, funneling money from the haves to the have-nots of the league in order to gain competitive balance. In 2009, $433 million in revenue-sharing moved from high-revenue clubs to those in need of assistance.

Along the way, sizable increases in the amount of “central revenue” has found its way into club coffers. The growth of national television money from ESPN, FOX Sports, and TBS which total approx. $660 million a year in rights fees funnel back to each of the 30 clubs. Add in annual dividend checks from MLB Advanced Media of $2 million, revenues from MLB Properties, international broadcast agreements, etc.,  and all clubs, large revenue-making, or not, have found extra money that can be used to help produce a winning product on the diamond.

Still, the field would remain unlevel without revenue-sharing tied to net local revenues, so with the leaked Deadspin docs having three clubs (the Pirates, Marlins, and Rays) that have received considerable amounts via the revenue-sharing system, the documents provide ammunition for clubs such as the Yankees and Red Sox when collective bargaining begins in earnest shortly after the World Series ends.

Parsing the documents, here’s how much revenue-sharing was either received or paid out for a given year:

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UPDATE (4pm ET): Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that News Corp. will not be bidding for the Rangers, according to Randy Freer, president of Fox Sports Networks. Also, Dennis Gilbert has dropped out, although he had dropped off the radar some time ago, and was thought to be marrying up with Jim Crane.

Sources indicated to me early Tuesday that Mark Cuban and Jim Crane have filed bids simultaneously ahead of the 8pm CT deadline and are working together. That leaves Dallas businessman Jeff Beck as the only open question mark for tomorrow’s auction.

A bit of history will be made on Weds. when the Texas Rangers will be put up for auction, with its outcome determined at a hearing on Thurs. To place this in perspective, the last time an MLB club was auctioned out of bankruptcy was the Baltimore Orioles in 1993. Here’s some key information to know leading up to the auction:

Who’s Bidding?

The group led by Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan is, of course, going to be there, but beyond that, official bidders have until 8pm CT on Tues. night to file for the Weds. auction that begins at 9am CT and will be overseen by the Honorable Russell F. Nelms. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has filed documents with the court in attempts to gain access to the club purchase, and Houston businessman Jim Crane has been involved with mediation sessions with William Snyder, the chief restructuring officer in the case. Dallas businessman Jeff Beck is a possibility, as well. What is unknown at the time of publication is whether Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. will be preapproved by MLB for bidding on the club, as well. If so, there could be as many as 5 groups anteing up for the purchase of the club.

Still, if no other bidders outside of the Greenberg/Ryan group show up for the auction, the proceedings will be shifted from an auction to hearing on the confirmation of the Rangers’ Third Amended Plan of Reorganization, filed July 30, 2010.

What’s the Bidding Going to Start At?

Determining the very lowest a group can bid means looking at the Greenberg/Ryan’s group offer. The approx. $520 million “stalking horse” bid is really broken down into three parts.

Rangers Baseball Express (the group led by Greenberg/Ryan) is assuming approx. $220 million in liabilities of the Rangers. Secondly, approx. $220 million is then funneled back Rangers’ Equity Owners and the creditors. After that, an approx. $80 million balance will be paid to other creditors following closing of the sale. The “stalking horse” provision of the bid process has the first bid needing to be $15 million over, so Judge Michael Lynn has said that in principle, any bidder that has at least $95 million ready in hand, can be involved in the overbid process.

That doesn’t mean $95 million is what is going to be the bid price. It means that bidders, other than Greenberg/Ryan have been given the opportunity to use “bridge funding” from creditors to cover any balance above the $95 million. Certainly, all the bidders (should more than Greenberg/Ryan be at auction on Weds) will have far more to place at bid. But, any and all funding by the bidders through bridge funding has to be paid off no later than Oct 11, more than two months from the end of the auction. Should the winner of the auction fail to reach all the funding by Oct. 11, it would likely mean that the process would be opened back up, and yet another auction could take place.

But, the focus should be on the $306.7 million cash offer Greenberg/Ryan has on the table on Weds. Once the overbid of $15 million is added as a minimum, all subsequent bids will be in $2 million increments.

What’s Up for Sale?

Given that there are still looming questions about what William Snyder, the chief restructuring officer called “insider” transactions surrounding the lease of Rangers Ballpark of Arlington, as well as the Lenders arguing that “it is impossible for…. Potential bidders – in the time allotted… — to negotiate their own separate agreements with the parties that have the right to transfer them,” Lynn is suggesting that “it is preferable that a bidder exclude tainted assets or [other parties]” that may seek to claim damages from the “eve-of-filing transaction” that involves the lease transfer and/or the $70 million separate land deal that has been brokered between Tom Hicks and the Greenberg/Ryan group. That “side deal” includes the parking around the Ballpark that is a key revenue stream for both game day events, as well as during the NFL season when the lots can be used for new Cowboy Stadium. Another side deal that has raised eyebrows is an aircraft lease.

If those aspects are removed, as Lynn has suggested, it likely means that just the Rangers will be up for sale. Sorting out the other piece, critical to the functioning of the Rangers, will be a tricky matter to undertake outside of the sales process, so it is unclear how those pieces function in the overall.

How Much is the “Breakup Fee”?

If the Greenberg/Ryan group does not win at auction, they are entitled to compensation for all the legal work done in advance that the other bidders have not had to deal with.

Judge Lynn has altered how much the group could gain back, and the amount is dependent on their decision making process.

They can elect to:

A) 125% of the group’s costs or expenses, or;

B) $10 million before the court determines which of RBE expenses and costs are allowable.

At no point will the break-up fee be allowed to exceed $13 million

Does Lynn Have to Take the Highest Bid?

This is the $64,000 question in all of this: Does Judge Lynn have to accept the highest bid, or is this a matter of seeing that there was a fair process in play? The answers to this will come out of the bidding on Weds. and from how Lynn interprets matters when the outcome of the auction is covered during hearing on the Thursday after auction.

When Will The Club Sale Be Approved By MLB?

Having MLB’s owners vote to approve ownership transfer is part of the league’s constitution. Article V, Section 2 of the Constitution (see it here) goes on to say that three-fourths of the leagues owners must approve, “The sale or transfer of a control interest in any Club”.

The league has said that if the preferred group of Greenberg/Ryan is selected through the auction process, they can have the ownership approval completed by Aug. 12, the day that funding commitments tied to the Asset Purchase Agreement reached between the Rangers and the group is set to expire. If another bidding group comes out on top, the league has said it could be as long as 9 months (although, sources close to The Biz of Baseball repeatedly said that it would likely be 3 months), before owners would vote, citing the need for each owner to conduct due-diligence on the prospective owner.

Mark Cuban, who has verbally said that he is going to actively pursue purchase of the club through the auction, is seeking to have MLB go through the approval process no later than Aug. 16, saying that must close on or before the date. The filing does not elaborate as to why Cuban is in need of MLB’s approval by vote less than two weeks after the auction will have been completed.

Could a Marriage Occur?

Whether it’s posturing or alliances being truly forged, there has been word that Cuban could be possibly aligning himself with Jim Crane. Crane had been portrayed by the creditors as having a “significantly higher bid” when they were maneuvering to get the auction to occur. As of early Tues. sources indicate  that the two are, indeed, working together making them a formidable pairing in terms of funding. It should be noted, the league has not looked favorably upon Crane since he backed out of the purchase of the Houston Astros several years ago at the 11th hour.

What Happens if the League Does Not Approve a Bidder?

If the league does not approve the winner of the auction, one could surmise that the club would become “wards of the state”, with MLB taking over the operations of the club until the smoke had cleared in the courts. The last time this occurred was with the then Montreal Expos in Nov. of 2001. The Lenders would most assuredly challenge MLB’s league constitution saying that the bankruptcy process to pay back lenders supersedes that of the league.

Will it All be Over Soon?

The short answer is, no. In some form, the Rangers sale will continue to drag on in the courts. If the creditors lose out, they have said they will appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit in New Orleans. The basis of the appeal would be centered on Judge Lynn not granting enough time for competitive bidding. Should the Greenberg/Ryan group lose, it seems very possible the lawsuits will be filed there, as well.

But, those are likely to be actions on the periphery. The focus is really now on two dates: Aug. 12, should the Greenberg/Ryan group win, and Oct. 11 for any other groups in the hunt. On the latter, if the funding is reached in time, the focus will then move to MLB’s approval process.

So, while Tues., Weds. and Thurs. will set into motion how the ownership of the Texas Rangers could wind up, the sports and business pages will be sprinkled with the bankruptcy case, likely for many months to come.