Tangotiger’s Projection Tests
Tangotiger posts the official results of his 2007-2010 projection tests. Specifically he tests CHONE, PECOTA, Oliver, ZiPS and the Marcel projection systems using wOBA.
It’s very in depth and there’s a lot of really great information here about how different projection systems fared for different “classes” of players.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Hopefully this will dispel the myth that PECOTA isnt a good projection system. Good work in there, though a lot of it over my head.
Well, aside from last year’s burp.
How so? PECOTA still does worse than a number of free alternatives. I also think Tango is being very generous by counting it as one continuous system, since there was clearly a drop off after Nate Silver left.
He does say that they are all about the same. Yes, you do have to pay for Pecota, but for me, I like that they factor in WAR(P).
To me, it appears as though its at worst only 8/1000ths away from being the best, which I would claim is statistically insignificant.
I thought the myth was “deadly accurate.” ?
PECOTA is in good hands now after being abandoned for a few years there. It’s back to being right there with other systems.
I was impressed with how well Oliver fared in these trials. Good to see.
-j