Tangotiger’s Projection Tests

by
February 15, 2011

Tangotiger posts the official results of his 2007-2010 projection tests. Specifically he tests CHONE, PECOTA, Oliver, ZiPS and the Marcel projection systems using wOBA.

It’s very in depth and there’s a lot of really great information here about how different projection systems fared for different “classes” of players.





 

David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

15 Comments
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smocon
13 years ago

Hopefully this will dispel the myth that PECOTA isnt a good projection system. Good work in there, though a lot of it over my head.

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Blue
13 years ago
Reply to  smocon

Well, aside from last year’s burp.

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Tomas
13 years ago
Reply to  smocon

How so? PECOTA still does worse than a number of free alternatives. I also think Tango is being very generous by counting it as one continuous system, since there was clearly a drop off after Nate Silver left.

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smocon
13 years ago
Reply to  Tomas

He does say that they are all about the same. Yes, you do have to pay for Pecota, but for me, I like that they factor in WAR(P).

To me, it appears as though its at worst only 8/1000ths away from being the best, which I would claim is statistically insignificant.

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Justin Merrymember
13 years ago
Reply to  smocon

I thought the myth was “deadly accurate.” ?

PECOTA is in good hands now after being abandoned for a few years there. It’s back to being right there with other systems.

I was impressed with how well Oliver fared in these trials. Good to see.
-j

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