The 2014 American League Gold Glove Awards, Strictly by the Numbers

The finalists for the 2014 Rawlings’ Gold Glove Awards were announced on Thursday afternoon, and if you’re here on the internet with me, you know how much people hate the Gold Glove Awards.

Part of that is for good reason. For a long time, the Gold Glove Awards were pretty much a joke. Rafael Palmeiro has three. Derek Jeter has five. There have also been tons of worthy defenders to earn Gold Gloves, but throughout history it’s seemed to be more of an award that valued good hitters who weren’t terrible at defense, rather than the game’s best actual defenders.

But! Things appear to be getting better. Last season, the MLB introduced a “sabermetric component” to the decision making process. Advanced defensive metrics are still a hotly debated topic, but I think we can mostly agree that they do a better job than the “errors and the eye test” method that has been used for decades. There were still some questionable choices last year, sure, there are questionable choices this year and there will continue to be questionable choices in the future, because awards are subjective and people are never going to see eye-to-eye.

I think the eye test has its merits, but since this is FanGraphs, let’s imagine a world where the Gold Glove Awards are decided strictly by the numbers. I did a similar post last year when I was still a wee Community Blog writer, and I’m going to use a similar method this year.

First, our player pool. For catchers and infielders, I’m simply going with qualified batters. This is pretty standard. For outfielders, I’ve lowered the innings threshold to 600 innings, because outfielders move around more than infielders, and I don’t think an everyday outfielder should be discounted because he had to split his time between left field and center field.

Now, for the numbers. We’ve got Defensive Runs Saved and we’ve got Ultimate Zone Rating. Neither are perfect, and sometimes they disagree with each other, but when put together, I think we can all agree they do a pretty good job. I’ve prorated each to 1,000 innings and simply used a 50/50 split to determine each player’s total defensive value, per 1000 innings (tDEF/1000). In the tables, I’ve also decided to include each player’s Revised Zone Rating and Fielding Percentage, just because.

Catchers, as we know, are a whole other beast. We’ve got three main components of catcher defense that we can measure: controlling the running game, blocking pitches and receiving pitches. Only two of them are included in the advanced defensive metrics we use, and the one we’re leaving out (receiving) appears to be the most important skill. To make up for that, I simply added up the run values of each of these three components, using StatCorner’s catcher framing report for my framing numbers. Some people don’t agree with how much weight is given to catchers in framing data, and I kind of agree with that, but as the National League results will show, the top spot doesn’t simply go to the best framer.

Enough methodology talk. Let’s get to the awards!

Catcher – Mike Zunino

	Inn	tDEF/1000	rSB/1000	RPP/1000	FRM/1000
Mike Zunino	1121.0	19.4	0.9	-1.4	19.9
Yan Gomes	1082.0	11.1	1.8	1.8	7.4
Jason Castro	971.0	7.3	-2.1	0.1	9.3

Zunino, unsurprinsgly, was left off the Rawlings’ finalists, because he doesn’t appear to be a great defensive catcher by the traditional metrics. He’s just slightly above average at controlling the running game and was among the worst pitch blockers in the MLB. That last part makes some sense, though, when you consider Eno’s study which suggests blocking and framing are negatively correlated, and that Zunino is maybe the best pitch framer in the MLB. Framing is a more important skill than blocking, and his elite framing ability is enough to put him on top.

Biggest offenders: Kurt Suzuki (-24.2), Dioner Navarro (-19.5), Tyler Flowers (-7.4).

First Base – Mike Napoli

	Inn	tDEF/1000	UZR/1000	DRS/1000	RZR	FP%
Mike Napoli	959.1	6.3	5.2	7.3	.772	.992
Albert Pujols	1017.0	6.0	6.2	5.9	.816	.997
Chris Davis	942.2	5.6	2.8	8.5	.810	.996

Mike Napoli’s time at first base in Boston has been something like that gif. Nobody has any idea what’s going on, but they’ll be damned if the end result isn’t great. Napoli didn’t even know he had the ball! Last year, Napoli led all American League first basemen in combined UZR and DRS and wasn’t named a finalist. This year, Napoli led all American League first basemen in combined UZR and DRS and, again, wasn’t named a finalist. Two consecutive years of both metrics agreeing Napoli is the American League’s best defensive first baseman makes it hard to believe otherwise.

Biggest offenders: Jose Abreu (-7.0), James Loney (-0.9), Eric Hosmer (+1.2).

Second Base – Dustin Pedroia

	Inn	tDEF/1000	UZR/1000	DRS/1000	RZR	FP%
Dustin Pedroia	1187.1	14.9	15.4	14.3	.835	.997
Ian Kinsler	1414.0	11.7	9.2	14.1	.844	.988
Jonathan Schoop	1010.2	7.8	5.7	9.9	.778	.987

Hey, the guy that plays right next to Napoli is pretty great, too! He came out on top in this study last year, and he comes out on top again this year. Also appearing for the second consecutive year and cementing his place as one of the game’s best defensive second baseman is Ian Kinsler. Pedroia and Kinsler both got the nod from the MLB, though Robinson Cano was chosen as the third finalist. Cano has a reputation as a good defender, but the metrics haven’t liked him as much the past two seasons, or really most seasons. According to the numbers, Jonathan Schoop and his cannon of an arm might have been a more deserving candidate.

Biggest offenders: Jason Kipnis (-8.8), Rougned Odor (-8.7), Jose Altuve (-7.1).

Third Base – Josh Donaldson

	Inn	tDEF/1000	UZR/1000	DRS/1000	RZR	FP%
Josh Donaldson	1320.2	13.4	11.7	15.1	.770	.952
Kyle Seager	1402.0	7.3	7.6	7.1	.752	.981
Trevor Plouffe	1110.2	5.7	6.0	5.4	.736	.960

On September 10, 2014, Harold Reynolds said the following: “I’m going to throw up if Josh Donaldson wins the Gold Glove.” Somebody get Harold a bucket. Over the last two seasons, Donaldson is third among all MLB third baseman in DRS and fourth in UZR. He has as much range at the hot corner of anyone not named Manny Machado, and you can see it on the play above. What Harold doesn’t like is the errors, and Donaldson led major league third baseman with 23 of them this year. Donaldson had more balls hit to him than any other third baseman, so that kind of makes sense. But at the same time, 17 of Donaldson’s errors were throwing errors. As somebody who has watched all the tape, most of them were pretty bad and throwing errors, to me, are more inexcusable than fielding errors. Donaldson is an interesting case. But with Adrian Beltre‘s aging and Evan Longoria’s dreadful season in every way, nobody else in the AL really held a candle to Donaldons’s range, so he takes this one easily.

Worst offenders: Nick Castellanos (-19.7), Lonnie Chisenhall (-11.0), Conor Gillaspie (-7.6).

Shortstop – J.J. Hardy

	Inn	tDEF/1000	UZR/1000	DRS/1000	RZR	FP%
J.J. Hardy	1257.0	9.5	11.1	8.0	.820	.978
Erick Aybar	1365.0	1.6	5.5	-2.2	.761	.982
Alcides Escobar	1433.2	-0.8	1.1	-2.8	.753	.976

The big thing that jumps out to me here is that the American League shortstop class is really weak defensively. I mean, we’ve got a guy in the negatives there. Elvis Andrus is typically good but had an uncharacteristically terrible year by the numbers, and the same is the case with Yunel Escobar. This isn’t meant to be a knock on J.J. Hardy, though. He’s great. The main thing going for Hardy is his arm, which is evidenced in this clip. Alongside Schoop, he forms half of the best double play combination in baseball, and he was also graded as having the best range of any shortstop in the American League.

Biggest offenders: Yunel Escobar (-17.3), Jose Reyes (-9.0), Derek Jeter (-8.9).

Left Field – Alex Gordon

	Inn	tDEF/1000	UZR/1000	DRS/1000	RZR	FP%
Alex Gordon	1372.2	18.9	18.2	19.7	.900	.994
Yoenis Cespedes	1090.2	10.1	9.3	11.0	.865	.979
Dustin Ackley	1130.0	6.5	6.7	6.2	.929	.992

So, yeah. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. Gordon was the subject of the great WAR debate of 2014. The numbers have always loved Gordon and his arm, and we’re going on four consecutive years now of both metrics agreeing that Gordon’s defensive value is somewhere in the +2 WAR range, which is where it was again this year. Like the second guy on this list, who you may have heard about, a lot of Gordon’s value comes from his arm. Even when he doesn’t have to throw the ball. Gordon seems like a lock to win his fourth consecutive Gold Glove.

Biggest offenders: Rajai Davis (-11.7), J.D. Martinez (-3.4), Michael Brantley (-3.3).

Center Field – Jarrod Dyson

	Inn	tDEF/1000	UZR/1000	DRS/1000	RZR	FP%
Jarrod Dyson	678.1	23.4	26.1	20.6	.975	.983
Lorenzo Cain	723.1	16.7	14.0	19.4	.933	.996
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	949.0	15.8	16.8	14.8	.916	.997

You guys heard anything about the Royals defense lately? No? Let me explain: it’s amazing. Remember that Lorenzo Cain guy that made all those incredible catches in the playoffs? Remember how he got moved to right field in the late innings of games because there was someone else on his team who was somehow better? Yeah, that guy is Jarrod Dyson. The Royals have two of the best center fielders in baseball on the same team, and somehow neither were recognized as a finalist by the MLB. Instead, Adam Jones gets a nod for the millionth* consecutive year, despite having amassed negative totals in both DRS and UZR throughout his entire career.

*estimate

Biggest offenders: Dexter Fowler (-21.8), Coco Crisp (-17.1), James Jones (-14.7).

Right Field – Josh Reddick

	Inn	tDEF/1000	UZR/1000	DRS/1000	RZR	FP%
Josh Reddick	873.1	10.1	5.4	14.9	.936	.975
Kole Calhoun	1036.1	3.7	5.5	1.9	.896	.996
Nick Markakis	1314.1	2.7	4.7	0.8	.872	1.000

Though the MLB agrees with me on two of these three selections, Kevin Kiermaier made the cut instead of Josh Reddick. I don’t mind this too much, as Kiermaier might be the best defensive outfielder in all of baseball, he just didn’t play enough innings in right field to make the cut for this study. But I think they erred in leaving Reddick off, as he’s been a top-five defender by both DRS and UZR among all major league outfielders over the past three seasons, and was typically amazing this year. Also, 80-grade hat flip there after the catch.

Biggest offenders: Torii Hunter (-16.3), David Murphy (-13.3), Dayan Viciedo (-12.3).

Stay tuned for the National League edition.