Two Jake Peavys

Two different guys named Jake Peavy pitched in the Major Leagues in 2014. One made 20 lacklustre starts for the Boston Red Sox. He was hit hard and hit often and, strangely a little wild. His walk rate brushed up against 10%, higher walk rate than at any point since his first full season in the big leagues.

Another guy named Jake Peavy made a dozen starts for the San Francisco Giants. Starts that were worth about 2 WAR, a nice bump given their playoff race context. He was miserly in his distribution of both home runs and walks – dropping his BB% below 5% and coughing up just three home runs in a Giants uniform. He was very good and was quickly identified as the second best starting pitcher on a playoff team.

The Giants would not be in the World Series without that Jake Peavy. He gave the Giants options (moving Tim Lincecum to the bullpen, an act of mercy for all involved) and now they’re here, competing for their third title in five years. Somebody in San Francisco saw something in Peavy that, with a little fine tuning, could help the Giants win the World Series.

Somehow, both these pitchers showed up to participate in Game Two of the World Series. The Red Sox-version of Peavy was battered and bashed by the Kansas City Royals for the first two innings on Wednesday night. This is how the initial trip through the Royals lineup went for the Giants starter:

1. Ground ball (single scalded through the shortstop)
2. Fly out
3. Liner (double)
4. Walk
5. Ground ball (single)
6. Fly out
7. Liner (out)
8. Liner (double)
9. Fliner (out)

For good measure, the next two batters went liner (double) and liner (out) to end the second inning. It was at this point  Royals fans began lamenting their inability to put away their weakened prey, scoring just twice despite the early inning laser show. I believe “let him off the hook” was trending on Twitter at one point.

And, as quickly as it seemed his night would end, Peavy settled in and recorded nine straight outs. It was Frisco Peavy, born again. But how? What was the difference between these two trips that allowed Peavy to make these adjustments?

After relying heavily on his fastball(s) the first time through, Peavy leaned on his breaking ball in the third, fourth, and fifth innings. He turned the Royals aggression against them. They came out eager to put his fastball in play and did a fine job of doing just that, tagging the wide variety of poorly located four-seamers. With nothing to lose, Peavy turned to his curveball, his slider, and his cutter to hold the Royals at bay.

courtesy of Brooks Baseball

It follows the pattern established when Peavy moved back to the National League. Pitching coach Dave Righetti and Peavy worked to right his mechanics (an ongoing process) and get the experienced starter away from this fastball so much.

Since becoming a Giant, establishing the inside corner with his four seamer was a huge key, allowing him to go to his myriad other options and keep hitters off-balance. Getting ahead in the count allowed him to all but drop his sinker and reduce his number of four seamers in favor of more cutters (an underrated offering), curves and sliders.

Much is made of Peavy’s lineup penalty, struggling as he does when facing hitters for the third time in a single game. Manager Bruce Bochy elected to allow Peavy to start the sixth inning, a decision that ended in disaster for the Giants. Does this start confirm or confound that reputation as a five-and-dive guy? It’s unlikely that we’ll see Peavy tackle a lineup for the third time this postseason, but his ability to change things up in real time

Now staring at a long series, the Giants and Peavy have a lot to consider before any potential start in either Game 5 or 6. What lessons can they take from his breaking ball-heavy assault on the Royals that might carry over? How will they adjust their collective game plan, better prepared for his slurry of soft offerings as they’re sure to see.

“You gotta keep the opposition guessing on what you’re going to do…especially the older you get, when your stuff is not as good, you have to be unpredictable.” This is what Jake Peavy told Fangraphs’ own Eno Sarris in early September. He’s very much a kitchen sink operator at this point, the kind of pitcher who tinkers and uses whatever’s working on a given day to get him the 17 or so outs he craves.

In his first World Series start this year, his breaking pitches worked just well enough to get him into trouble when, perhaps, he was best served coming out of the game. After an ugly beginning to his night, those three bonus innings surely felt like money in the bank.

If five innings or two trips through the order is all the Giants need, they have to feel Peavy can deliver. Perhaps it will be the cutter that features prominently next time out. Maybe the slider or his newly-discovered change. It’s a gamble not unlike the gamble they took on him in July. There are two Jake Peavys these days, and nobody on either side of the field knows which one might show up.