The 2016 All-KATOH Team

Last week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Washington Nationals, which concluded his “Evaluating the Prospects” series. Previously, Baseball America published their top 100 prospects list, as did Baseball Prospectus (top 101), Keith Law, MLB.com and newcomer 2080 Baseball (top 125). Additionally, I put out KATOH’s top-100 list back in January. All of these works attempt to accomplish the very same goal: identifying and ranking baseball’s best prospects. But KATOH goes about it in a very different way than the others. While most others rely heavily on scouting, KATOH relies exclusively on statistical performance.

On the whole, there’s a good deal of agreement between KATOH and the more traditional rankings. Many of KATOH’s favorite prospects have also received praise from real, live human beings who’ve watched them play. JP Crawford, Corey Seager, Orlando Arcia and Julio Urias all fall within this group. However, there are other KATOH favorites who’ve received very little attention from prospect evaluators. The purpose of this article is to give these prospects a little bit of attention.

At each position, I identified the player best acquitted by KATOH who was excluded from all top-100 lists, and received a 50th percentile FV grade no higher than 55 from Dan Farnsworth. These players have performed in the minors in a way that usually portends big-league success. Yet, for one reason or another, each received limited praise from prospect evaluators.

You might have noticed that I did not include John Sickels’ top 175 list in my analysis. This wasn’t because I do not respect his rankings and/or take them seriously. In fact, it’s closer to the exact opposite of that. Since Sickels relies heavily on minor-league performance when constructing his rankings, a few of KATOH’s guys who were overlooked by everyone else snuck onto his list. My goal was to identify minor-league performers who were overlooked by the scouting consensus, and Sickels’ rankings don’t feel like the scouting consensus to me.

Of course, the prospect community overlooked these players for a reason. Often times, it was due to underwhelming physical tools That’s important information! The outlook for players like this tends to be worse than their minor-league stats would lead you to believe. There’s a reason experts always say “don’t scout the stat line.” Although KATOH scouts the stat line in an intuitive fashion, it still overlooks the non-numerical attributes that can predict big-league success.

KATOH would have whiffed badly on guys like Ruben Quevedo and Joe Thurston back in the day. Had I been writing publicly back then, I would have written about those players tirelessly, and would have had copious amounts of egg on my face after they failed hard. At the same time, though, KATOH would have been all over Robinson Cano, Josh Donaldson and Dan Haren. None of those three cracked Baseball America’s top-100 list even once, but obviously wound up becoming extremely productive players. There very well might be a Cano or Haren in this group, but there are also almost certainly a few Quevedos and Thurstons, and a few more who will fall somewhere in-between.

Keep in mind that this exercise excludes the KATOH darlings who still wound up on top 100 lists. For example, KATOH loves Jose Peraza, Jacob Faria, Max Kepler, Chance Sisco, Alen Hanson and Jake Bauers way more than most. Yet, although KATOH’s the high man these prospects, they’re ineligible for this list because at least one well-respected source ranked them among the top 100 rookie-eligible players on the planet. The players below are the ones who are a bit further off the radar. Also note that these projections are current as of the 2015 season and do not take into account early 2016 stats.

*****
C – Dom Nunez, Colorado (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Nunez did a fine job of controlling the strike zone in Low-A last year. He walked in 12% of his trips to the plate, and struck out equally as often. Meanwhile, his 13 homers speak to his budding power. Nunez excelled in all areas offensively last year, and catchers who do that are few and far between.

Why scouts don’t:

Nunez hasn’t played an inning above A-ball, so he still has a good deal of developing to do before he’s ready for the show. Defensively, he’s only been a catcher for a couple of years, so he’s still rough around the edges. There are no major red flags, but he might just be a year away from making waves in prospect circles.

*****

1B – Sam Travis, Boston (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Travis struck out in just 14% of his plate appearances last year, which enabled him to hit over .300. He complemented that contact with ample walks and power, along with 19 stolen bases. Statistically speaking, there aren’t any holes in his offensive profile.

Why scouts don’t:

Travis isn’t a particularly athletic player. He’s limited to first base defensively, but more importantly, most don’t give him the offensive upside his numbers suggest is possible. In particular, Dan had some concerns about his swing: “There is scant physical projection left, and he already can look rigid when he’s trying to tap into his power in batting practice. He doesn’t have the swing path to support a hard fly ball/high line drive batted ball profile, nor does he have the brute strength to just muscle balls out of the park.”

*****

2B – Jamie Westbrook, Arizona (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Westbrook broke out in a big way in 2015, slashing .319/.357/.510 at the High-A level with 14 steals. All of this while playing half the year as a 19-year-old. Even in the hitter-friendly CAL League, his wOBA was ninth among qualified hitters. Not bad for a super-young middle infielder.

Why scouts don’t:

As a 5-foot-9 second baseman, Westbrook isn’t exactly a bastion of tools. He feels like the type of hitter who’ll need to prove himself at the higher levels before he cracks any top-100 lists. Furthermore, many attribute last year’s success to the Cal League, rather than an improvement in skill.

*****

3B – Kevin Padlo, Tampa Bay (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Padlo hit a loud .300/.421/.594 in Rookie ball in 2014. He hit similarly well in short-season A-ball last year, slashing .294/.404/.502 with 33 steals in 70 games. Padlo’s demonstrated a rare combination of power and speed despite being young for his level.

Why scouts don’t:

Padlo’s stats have been great, but he’s played exclusively in the low minors, where the samples are small and the pitching isn’t great. Furthermore, Padlo’s tools aren’t particularly exciting, which is why he wasn’t drafted until the fifth round. I think erstwhile lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel summed it up well last winter when he described them as “low-end everyday third base tools.”

*****

SS – Ruddy Giron, San Diego (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Giron hit a solid .285/.335/.407 in 96 games at Low-A last year, and also kicked in 15 steals. That’s mighty impressive for an 18-year-old who has enough defensive ability to play shortstop. The power especially stands out. Shortstops who hit that well as teenagers in full-season ball often turn into quality big leaguers.

Why scouts don’t:

Giron doesn’t have much of a track record. Before his short-lived breakout last year, he struggled in Rookie ball in 2014. And before that, Giron signed for peanuts out of the Dominican. Many have acknowledged Giron’s potential, but unlike KATOH, most would like to see a bit more before they completely buy in. Furthermore, Dan expressed concerns about Giron’s long-term power potential due to his current swing: “He loses a lot of power he could have with his great bat speed due to a level to downward path and swinging across the ball.”

*****

OF1 – Mallex Smith, Atlanta (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Smith hit .306/.373/.386 with an eye-popping 57 steals between Double-A and Triple-A last year. Smith’s control of the strike zone and high BABIPs have resulted in excellent OBPs in the minors. When a player has top-notch speed, he doesn’t need to hit all that much to be a valuable player. Smith was recently promoted to the big leagues.

Why scouts don’t:

Smith is a ground-ball hitter whose power is almost nonexistent, which obviously limits his upside. Dan also observed that his minor-league numbers were largely fueled by poor minor-league defense, so his BABIP-heavy skill set might not play as well in the show. Furthermore, his routes in center field haven’t been great, which has prevented him from taking advantage of his 80-grade speed for now.

*****

OF2 – Ramon Flores, Milwaukee (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Flores hit .308/.401/.454 as a 23-year-old in Triple-A last year and .247/.339/.443 as a 22-year-old at the same level in 2014. His near-equal strikeout and walk rates speak to his ability to control the strike zone, while his 18 homers in 155 games over the last two years hint that he has an acceptable amount of power.

Why scouts don’t:

Flores is a tweener. He isn’t quite fast enough to play center and lacks the power of a prototypical corner outfielder. Furthermore, his underwhelming tools suggest he doesn’t have much upside left, leading many to peg him as a future reserve outfielder.

*****

OF3 – Andrew Aplin, Houston (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Aplin controls the strike zone excellently and runs well. He’s walked slightly more than he’s struck out over the last two years — 15% to 14%, respectively — and swiped 32 bases in 106 games last year. Aplin isn’t sexy, but aside from his lack of power, he doesn’t have any holes in his game.

Why scouts don’t:

Like most of the others on this list, Aplin is a grinder who succeeds despite having minimal tools. He’s an undersized outfielder who hasn’t hit for much power, and although he steals a ton of bases, he’s only a 55 runner according to Dan. Dan also capped Aplin’s future power at just 35 due to “a choppy swing path and little torque.” Like Flores, he’s one of those tweener types who isn’t fast enough to be a great center fielder, and doesn’t have the power of a prototypical corner outfielder. As if that weren’t enough, Aplin’s also already 25, making him much older than the typical prospect.

*****

SP1 – Clayton Blackburn, San Francisco (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Blackburn’s succeeded at every minor-league stop, and has now succeeded at every level short of the big leagues. In 2014, he pitched to a 2.54 FIP with a 22% strikeout rate as a 21-year-old in Double-A. Last season, he spun a 3.55 FIP and 19% strikeout rate as a 22-year-old in Triple-A. Based on age and performance, he has the statistical track record of an upper-tier pitching prospect.

Why scouts don’t:

Blackburn’s fastball sits in the low 90s, which just isn’t all that impressive these days, especially for a righty. His secondary pitches are also merely average. As a soft-tossing righty with no stand-out pitch, he’s earned the dreaded “fourth starter” label. Regardless of how close they are to the big leagues, future fourth starters rarely get much love in the prospect world. Nobody likes a low-risk, medium-upside prospect who doesn’t light up the radar gun.

*****

SP2 – Zach Lee, Los Angeles (NL) (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Although he struggled in his first taste of Triple-A in 2014, Lee repeated the level last year and redeemed himself. Lee’s strikeout numbers have been underwhelming, but he walked just 4% of opposing hitters last year. Lee may no longer look like a prospect to the naked eye, but to KATOH sees a 6-foot-4 pitcher who succeeded at Triple-A as a 23-year-old.

Why scouts don’t:

Unlike the other players listed here, Lee has a prospect pedigree. He was drafted in the first round out of high school, and appeared on top-100 lists every year from 2011 through 2014. However, his stuff has diminished significantly since then, and he hasn’t developed an out pitch. As a result, many have written him off as a back-end starter or future reliever. Again, nobody likes a low-risk, medium-upside prospect who doesn’t light up the radar gun.

*****
SP3 – Edwin Diaz, Seattle (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Diaz split time between High-A and Double-A last year, and finished with a 3.32 FIP and impressive 25% strikeout rate. Don’t let his 4.22 ERA in Double-A fool you: Diaz’s 3.22 FIP suggests he pitched very well at the level. Twenty-one-year-olds who pitch well in Double-A often turn into pretty good big leaguers.

Why scouts don’t:

Diaz actually has good stuff. However, due to his high-effort delivery, slight build and lack of a third pitch, many fear he’s destined for the bullpen. Obviously, a move to the pen would severely slash his upside.

*****
SP4 – Zach Davies, Milwaukee (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Davies posted average-ish strikeout and walk numbers in Triple-A last year, which is no small feat coming from a 22-year-old. He also induces plenty of ground balls, which helps him keep his home-run totals in check. Davies succeeded in Triple-A at a young age, and pitchers meeting those criteria often succeed in the show, as well.

Why scouts don’t:

Davies makes the pitchers listed above look like flame throwers. His fastball averaged a tick under 89 mph in his big-league cameo last year, and he relies instead on his plus changeup. As a soft-tossing righty with good changeup, Davies embodies the exact opposite of what many scouts look for in a pitching prospect.

*****

SP5 – Spencer Adams, Chicago (AL) (Profile)

Why KATOH loves him:

Although he hasn’t turned 20 yet, Adams already has a year of sub-3.00 ERA in A-ball under his belt. Adams’ 17% strikeout rate from last year is a bit underwhelming, but he makes up for it with a pristine 3% walk rate.

Why scouts don’t:

Adams’ numbers thus far have been impressive, and unlike most of the other names here, he throws in the mid-90s. But as a guy who’s only pitched briefly in High-A, he still has a ways to go before he’s ready for the show. As Dan observed: “His arsenal requires sharpening and he needs to develop strength to project as a starter.”

*****

If I were a GM of a rebuilding team (or any team, really), I would trade for as many of these players as I could. While its unlikely that any of them will be stars, at least a few of them should make for decent regulars. Given the attrition rate for even the top prospects, those aren’t terrible odds. Perhaps more importantly, most of them would presumably be available for very little in return, as the going rate for consensus non-top-100 prospects isn’t particularly steep. The Brewers, for example, acquired Ramon Flores for the nominal fee of Luis Sardinas.

So that’s the 2016 All-KATOH team. There’s a good chance you’ve barely (or never) heard of some of these players. That said, each of their statistical track records hints at a bright future in the big leagues — even if everything else hints at the exact opposite outcome. I’ll be keeping a close eye on these prospects in 2016, as their performances in the coming months should give us a better sense of whether they can be big-league contributors down the road.