The 2023 Playoff Odds Are Now Available!

The FanGraphs 2023 Playoff Odds are now available on the site. As a reminder, here’s what each column represents in the current 12-team playoff structure:

  • Win Div: The probability the team wins their division.
  • Clinch Bye: The probability that the team wins their division and is one of the top two seeds in their league, thus earning a Wild Card Series bye.
  • Clinch Wild Card: The probability the team qualifies for the playoffs through a Wild Card berth.
  • Make Playoffs: The sum of Win Div + Clinch Wild Card, indicating the probability that the team qualifies for the playoff in any capacity.
  • Make LDS (Postseason section): The probability the team wins the Wild Card Series or earns a bye.

Our playoff odds continue to use a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, with pro-rated playing time coming via our Depth Charts. We then use that projection to calculate BaseRuns for each team’s batters and pitchers, which are used as inputs in the Pythagorean expectation formula to get a team’s winning percentage. Each team’s winning percentage is then used in a Monte Carlo simulation of the full 162-game schedule, which is run 20,000 times. You can find more information about our playoff odds here.

And a reminder that these are also live on the FanGraphs mobile app! The app is a great way to read articles, check player stats, and keep up with scores and playoff odds. It’s available for both iOS and Android.

David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

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Joe Joemember
1 year ago