The 2023 Playoff Odds Are Now Available!

by
February 16, 2023

The FanGraphs 2023 Playoff Odds are now available on the site. As a reminder, here’s what each column represents in the current 12-team playoff structure:

  • Win Div: The probability the team wins their division.
  • Clinch Bye: The probability that the team wins their division and is one of the top two seeds in their league, thus earning a Wild Card Series bye.
  • Clinch Wild Card: The probability the team qualifies for the playoffs through a Wild Card berth.
  • Make Playoffs: The sum of Win Div + Clinch Wild Card, indicating the probability that the team qualifies for the playoff in any capacity.
  • Make LDS (Postseason section): The probability the team wins the Wild Card Series or earns a bye.

Our playoff odds continue to use a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, with pro-rated playing time coming via our Depth Charts. We then use that projection to calculate BaseRuns for each team’s batters and pitchers, which are used as inputs in the Pythagorean expectation formula to get a team’s winning percentage. Each team’s winning percentage is then used in a Monte Carlo simulation of the full 162-game schedule, which is run 20,000 times. You can find more information about our playoff odds here.

And a reminder that these are also live on the FanGraphs mobile app! The app is a great way to read articles, check player stats, and keep up with scores and playoff odds. It’s available for both iOS and Android.





 

David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

3 Comments
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Joe Joe
3 years ago

Thanks!

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sadtromboneMember since 2020
3 years ago

I’m definitely taking the over on the Mariners. Nothing else stands out as being particularly weird to me, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the A’s or Nationals only win 55 games each. I can’t justifiably say they’ll win less than that, since virtually every team wins a third of their games and loses a third of their games, but they seem to be trying very very hard to get there.

1
bookbookMember since 2019
3 years ago

It feels like every projection system sells the Mariners rotation a bit short. They should have picked up a bat, but they still feel like probable wild card contenders.

0