The Abreu Impact

The Angels spent most of the winter declaring that 2009 was the season when they were finally going to give their young kids a real shot, and used that as an explanation for why they weren’t active in replacing Mark Teixeira after he headed to the Yankees and told Garret Anderson to enjoy the rest of his career elsewhere. However, with the price for Bobby Abreu crashing through the floor, they couldn’t pass up a deal when they saw one, and have reportedly signed him to a one year, $5 million-ish deal.

From a pure dollars per win standpoint, this is obviously a good move. Even with Abreu’s defensive decline, he’s still something like a +2 to +2.5 win player, so the Angels are paying just a couple of million per win in this deal. If he puts them over the top and helps them win the AL West, the return on those dollars could be in the 500% range. It’s money well spent.

However, it creates some interesting questions in LA. They already re-signed Juan Rivera to a three year contract earlier this winter, and obviously Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero are going to play when healthy. Plus, there’s guys like Gary Matthews Jr and Reggie Willits hanging around as reserve outfielders already on the roster. There had also been talk of moving Chone Figgins to the OF to make room for Brandon Wood, one of the young kids who the Angels had been saying was going to get a real chance to prove himself in the majors this year. So, how do they sort all this out?

Let’s take a look at the five positions that are related here – LF, CF, RF, 3B, and DH. Between those five spots, the Angels have something like 3,500 plate appearances to hand out. 2,500 or so will be against RHP, with the other 1,000 coming against LHP, assuming a 70/30 split. Let’s start filling up those PA totals with one potential option.

RF – Guerrero, 375 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
RF – Abreu, 125 PA vs RHP, 50 vs LHP

CF – Hunter, 450 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
CF – Matthews, 50 PA vs RHP, 50 PA vs LHP

LF – Abreu, 250 PA vs RHP, 75 PA vs LHP
LF – Rivera, 125 PA vs RHP, 100 PA vs LHP
LF – Matthews, 125 PA vs RHP, 25 PA vs LHP

DH – Rivera, 200 PA vs RHP, 100 PA vs LHP
DH – Abreu, 125 PA vs RHP, 25 PA vs LHP
DH – Figgins, 75 PA vs RHP, 25 vs LHP
DH – Guerrero, 50 PA vs RHP, 25 PA vs LHP
DH – Wood, 50 PA vs RHP, 25 PA vs LHP

3B – Figgins, 400 PA vs RHP, 125 PA vs LHP
3B – Wood, 100 PA vs RHP, 75 PA vs LHP

Total by Player:

Guerrero: 425 PA vs RHP, 175 PA vs LHP
Hunter: 450 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
Abreu: 500 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
Rivera: 325 PA vs RHP, 200 PA vs LHP
Figgins: 475 PA vs RHP, 150 PA vs LHP
Matthews: 175 PA vs RHP, 75 PA vs LHP
Wood: 150 PA vs RHP, 100 PA vs LHP

That’s one way that the Angels could potentially distribute the 3,500 PA they’ll get from those five positions. As you can see, the regular line-up would include Guerrero, Hunter, Abreu, Rivera, and Figgins, with Matthews and Wood relegated to backup duties.

The problem, however, is that if you’re consistently starting Guerrero, Rivera, and Abreu, two of those three have to play the outfield. That’s just not going to be a pretty sight to watch, and the pitching staff will take a hit with that kind of outfield defense behind them.

Abreu will help the Angels offense – that’s not in question. However, there are roster issues here that need to be worked out. In reality, the at-bats Abreu is going to get are coming from Gary Matthews (which downgrades the defense) and from Brandon Wood (which stalls his development, again). The marginal impact of Abreu’s presence on the team, while taking playing time from those two, is probably in the +1 win range.

This is a good move for the Angels. Adding a +2 win player, who is about +1 win better than your current alternatives, for $5 million in a season where you’re expecting to contend is a move that you should make. But this isn’t a huge upgrade for the Angels – it’s a marginal improvement, and one that could potentially cause some other issues.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

56 Comments
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Jones
15 years ago

Did you really just say Abreu is only +1 win better than GMJ/Wood?

alskor
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

That’s what i would have guessed. Its a decent move because of the price, but its a pretty marginal upgrade. Still worth doing.

Jones
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

This is assuming Wood doesn’t stink up the joint again and Matthews doesn’t continue to succumb to injuries. I’m not confident that will be the case.

Jones
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Apples to oranges. Abreu is proven and has a long track record of success. Wood does not. Wood was overmatched in the majors. I’m not confident that he will suddenly do a respectable job. Not until he gives us a reason.

Matthews? Already injured and not expected back until May. Injuries+Aging mid-30s OFer = not a good combination.

Geez
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Dave, I think he’s saying there’s a much better chance of Abreu performing to expectations than Wood performing to expectations (in terms of the CHONE projection, that is) We know what Abreu is capable of and what he is likely going to do this season. The same can’t be said for Wood.

He makes a good point. Wood was a complete disaster in the majors. I think he’ll do a much better job this year, but we can’t just dismiss his major league performance. That plate discipline was something else.

And it’s true…Wood hasn’t shown ANYTHING in the majors (small sample, I know) that would make us think he’ll hit what CHONE projects him to. The only thing we can do is go by his minor league numbers, but it doesn’t always translate and it might take some time before it does. So…

Matthews is a mess. He was injured last year and is already expected to miss the first month of the season.

Anyway, I’m not arguing with you. If Wood and GMJ perform, then Abreu isn’t that much of an improvement. If they don’t, then he is a big improvement.

Geez
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

I don’t think that’s true. There’s a big difference between projecting major leaguers and minor leaguers.

Do all players hit instantly when they reach the majors? Some do, some don’t. Some players need time to adjust, some don’t. Some even do better in the majors than minors. Some do the same. Some do as expected. Some just don’t perform at all. Then, you have to consider that not everyone is a finished product in the minors. Players improve, too.

Sorry, Dave….but minor leaguers are unpredictable.

Geez
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Dave, that is not what I am saying. At all. I know we can project performance based on minor league data. I’m just saying you can’t confidently expect Wood to do a decent job. Keyword: confidently.

Yes, it could happen. Yes, I want it to happen. But that doesn’t mean it will. And given the unpredictable nature of minor leaguers, we just don’t know what to expect.

The point is, it’s much easier to project what Abreu will do than what Wood will do.

Geez
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

OK, Dave. It’s good to know you’re as confident in projecting Wood’s numbers as you are with Abreu’s.

The data is there, but I’m not seeing the results. Share the data right now. Show me the results. Show me how minor league projections are as accurate as major league projections. Right now.

Geez
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Just send me the link of the actual data. I’m not going to search through an entire website. Present the data. Show me the results. Show me how CHONE’s accuracy isn’t significantly different in projecting players based of MLB or MILB numbers.

Geez
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

When you make an argument, present the data. Don’t expect people to do that for you, Dave.

I’m telling you minor league projections are not as accurate or useful as major league projections. You’re telling me they are. Show me the data, then.

If I’m wrong, I’ll gladly admit it. I’m not seeing you post any data that proves me wrong.

Geez
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Then prove it. You know what, if there was actual data out there that shows CHONE’s minor league projections are as accurate and useful as major league projections…you would’ve posted it by now.

It hasn’t been established. I remember reading from CHONE Smith himself about how his minor league projections were way off when compared to his major league projections. He posted a few articles about this.

I’ll read about it once you direct me a link. I’ll be waiting, Dave. Please prove me wrong. All you have to do is post a link.

kensai
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Can’t seem to find a copy of CHONE’s 2008 projections. Been searching.

Matt B.
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

I was skeptical about CHONE for Justin Upton last year, but they nailed it pretty good. Dave, maybe you still have the CHONE projection for 2008, I can’t seem to find it for him. Upton was essentially a career minor leaguer to that point…

BoSox Dog
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

I think Dave is wrong. Count me in as a non-believer until shown otherwise.

Geez
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

*Crickets*

Educate yourself, Dave. Minor leaguers are unpredictable. Minor league projections are not as useful or accurate as major league projections. You can’t project minor leaguers as easily as you can major leaguers. You can very easily just prove me wrong on this, but you can’t. And you won’t.

What you say and think just isn’t always accurate. Maybe if you got off your high horse, you would realize you’re not nearly as clever and smart as you think you are.

Geez
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

No, no…it isn’t. And you’re not. If what you say is true, you would’ve provided a link that supports your claim. Anyone can see that. The fact that you haven’t speaks volumes. All you have to do is post a link, Dave. That is all. Enough clever talk. Put up or shut up. I’ll gladly admit I was wrong if you can prove yourself right. Unfortunately, you won’t do that because you can’t. Which means I am right. A link ends this.

You will never find a link that shows CHONE’s minor league projections are as accurate and useful as major league projections. You will never find data that supports your claim. Because it just isn’t true.

vivaelpujols
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

At 5 million for 1 year, it is a good move.

vivaelpujols
15 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

I was replying to the first post