The Actually Official 2020 ZiPS Projected Standings
I’m a big liar, or at least I am thanks to Major League Baseball. Last week, after the longest offseason in modern baseball history, I posted the Final ZiPS 2020 Projected Standings. It turns out, however, that these weren’t quite as final as we hoped. Last Thursday, MLB took the step — unprecedented in major sports, at least in my memory banks — of changing the league’s playoff structure the day the season started. The already-bloated 10-team playoff format became an engorged 16-team one. In are four mediocre teams; out is most of the advantage division winners get for being the best in their divisions.
I’m still hopeful this is solely a 2020 issue; the agreement between MLB and the Players Association was only for this year. Baseball’s regular season is the most important in major team sports, after all. Plus, it’s in the interests of the players to avoid further decoupling championships from team quality, as that would inevitably create a further drag on salaries. Assuming 2021 reverts to normal, it still leaves the question of 2020 projections. After a three-day weekend immured in my Fortress of Statitude, I’ve reconfigured ZiPS for the umpteenth and hopefully last time, and present the final, actually official 2020 projected standings. All the commentary in my original article still stands, but now the numbers are quite different.
Warning: There are lots of charts coming.
Let’s start with new start-of-season projections. For these standings, ZiPS knows nothing about what has happened so far this season, whether it’s wins, losses, player stats, or injuries. Whatever it knew last Wednesday, it still knows.
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 37 | 23 | — | .617 | 44.8% | 28.8% | 12.4% | 86.0% | 7.6% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 35 | 25 | 2 | .583 | 34.8% | 30.7% | 14.6% | 80.0% | 6.2% |
| Boston Red Sox | 30 | 30 | 7 | .500 | 14.5% | 23.7% | 19.7% | 57.8% | 3.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 27 | 33 | 10 | .450 | 5.6% | 14.4% | 17.4% | 37.3% | 1.4% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 20 | 40 | 17 | .333 | 0.4% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 0.2% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Minnesota Twins | 35 | 25 | — | .583 | 40.1% | 26.8% | 12.6% | 79.5% | 6.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 34 | 26 | 1 | .567 | 32.1% | 27.7% | 14.0% | 73.8% | 5.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 31 | 29 | 4 | .517 | 19.6% | 24.7% | 16.4% | 60.7% | 3.3% |
| Kansas City Royals | 26 | 34 | 9 | .433 | 5.9% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 33.9% | 1.2% |
| Detroit Tigers | 23 | 37 | 12 | .383 | 2.4% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 20.1% | 0.6% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Houston Astros | 35 | 25 | — | .583 | 43.9% | 26.1% | 11.2% | 81.3% | 6.4% |
| Oakland A’s | 33 | 27 | 2 | .550 | 30.4% | 28.7% | 13.1% | 72.3% | 4.7% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 30 | 30 | 5 | .500 | 15.8% | 22.7% | 15.7% | 54.2% | 2.6% |
| Texas Rangers | 28 | 32 | 7 | .467 | 8.4% | 16.6% | 15.0% | 40.0% | 1.6% |
| Seattle Mariners | 22 | 38 | 13 | .367 | 1.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 0.4% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Washington Nationals | 34 | 26 | — | .567 | 32.4% | 25.6% | 17.9% | 75.9% | 5.3% |
| Atlanta Braves | 33 | 27 | 1 | .550 | 34.6% | 25.4% | 17.8% | 77.8% | 5.6% |
| New York Mets | 31 | 29 | 3 | .517 | 18.7% | 22.5% | 16.2% | 57.4% | 3.2% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 28 | 32 | 6 | .467 | 10.6% | 17.2% | 12.6% | 40.5% | 1.9% |
| Miami Marlins | 25 | 35 | 9 | .417 | 3.7% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 18.6% | 0.7% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Chicago Cubs | 32 | 28 | — | .533 | 27.4% | 22.7% | 14.5% | 64.6% | 4.0% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 29 | 1 | .517 | 22.7% | 22.0% | 13.8% | 58.5% | 3.4% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 29 | 1 | .517 | 22.1% | 21.6% | 13.9% | 57.6% | 3.3% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 29 | 1 | .517 | 21.5% | 21.6% | 13.7% | 56.8% | 3.2% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 26 | 34 | 6 | .433 | 6.3% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 25.3% | 1.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 38 | 22 | — | .633 | 56.6% | 23.2% | 15.3% | 95.2% | 9.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 32 | 28 | 6 | .533 | 22.5% | 29.7% | 20.4% | 72.6% | 4.3% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 30 | 8 | .500 | 12.8% | 23.2% | 16.3% | 52.3% | 2.6% |
| Colorado Rockies | 26 | 34 | 12 | .433 | 4.9% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 27.2% | 1.1% |
| San Francisco Giants | 26 | 34 | 12 | .433 | 3.2% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 19.8% | 0.7% |
Well, if the goal was to give every team a real chance at making the playoffs, no matter how weak the roster, you can pin up the mission accomplished banner. Where the second and third-tier contenders made huge gains when we went from 162 games to 60, the basement dwellers make the largest gains here. A team like the Orioles got a boost from a 60-game schedule, but to make the playoffs, they still had to actually be good in that shorter season. With eight teams per league now making the playoffs, even that bar is lowered significantly. Over the million seasons ZiPS simulates, 2.5 teams with losing records made the postseason in an average year; being a .485 team over 60 games is plausible for any team at the major league level.
To get a better idea of the new playoff format’s winners and losers, here are the standings transmogrified to display the differences between the current system and the old one (and hopefully, in 2021, the new-old one!).
| Team | Playoffs | Old Playoffs | Change | WS Win | Old WS Win | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 72.6% | 42.9% | 29.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| Atlanta Braves | 77.8% | 50.3% | 27.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 0.6% |
| Boston Red Sox | 57.8% | 33.1% | 24.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Chicago White Sox | 60.7% | 36.4% | 24.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | -0.1% |
| Oakland A’s | 72.3% | 48.2% | 24.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | -0.6% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 54.2% | 30.2% | 24.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 73.8% | 50.3% | 23.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | -0.6% |
| Washington Nationals | 75.9% | 52.4% | 23.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.3% | 29.1% | 23.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 95.2% | 72.0% | 23.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 0.2% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 80.0% | 57.3% | 22.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | -0.7% |
| Chicago Cubs | 64.6% | 41.9% | 22.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
| New York Mets | 57.4% | 34.9% | 22.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 58.5% | 36.6% | 22.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Minnesota Twins | 79.5% | 57.7% | 21.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | -1.0% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 57.6% | 36.0% | 21.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 56.8% | 35.2% | 21.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Houston Astros | 81.3% | 59.8% | 21.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | -1.2% |
| Texas Rangers | 40.0% | 18.7% | 21.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 37.3% | 16.4% | 20.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| New York Yankees | 86.0% | 65.6% | 20.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | -1.1% |
| Kansas City Royals | 33.9% | 14.5% | 19.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 40.5% | 23.3% | 17.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Detroit Tigers | 20.1% | 6.3% | 13.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Colorado Rockies | 27.2% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 25.3% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Seattle Mariners | 15.2% | 4.0% | 11.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 19.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Miami Marlins | 18.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 7.9% | 1.5% | 6.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Baseball’s middle class sees a large benefit here, but they have to share the gains with the bottom dwellers more than they did when the season was trimmed to 60 games. Clubs in a division with one or two complete doormats see the largest bumps thanks to the guaranteed spot for a second-place team. Suddenly, teams like the Padres and Red Sox make the playoffs more often with records in the 83-to-88 win range. At the low-end, the Orioles get the smallest boost in terms of percentage points, only gaining a tad over six points, but when you start from just 1.5%, that’s still a giant gain in terms of magnitude.
Since we’ve already got the ZiPS machine open and teams have played nearly a week of games (as well as seen players such as Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber succumb to injury), we might as well run the first in-season update for dessert.
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 37 | 23 | — | .617 | 42.8% | 30.0% | 12.5% | 85.3% | 7.5% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 36 | 24 | 1 | .600 | 40.2% | 30.3% | 13.3% | 83.8% | 7.1% |
| Boston Red Sox | 29 | 31 | 8 | .483 | 9.9% | 19.9% | 20.1% | 49.9% | 2.3% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 27 | 33 | 10 | .450 | 6.3% | 15.6% | 18.6% | 40.5% | 1.6% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 21 | 39 | 16 | .350 | 0.8% | 4.1% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 0.3% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Minnesota Twins | 36 | 24 | — | .600 | 38.4% | 27.1% | 13.1% | 78.7% | 5.8% |
| Cleveland Indians | 35 | 25 | 1 | .583 | 33.8% | 27.8% | 13.8% | 75.4% | 5.3% |
| Chicago White Sox | 31 | 29 | 5 | .517 | 19.4% | 24.5% | 16.7% | 60.6% | 3.3% |
| Kansas City Royals | 26 | 34 | 10 | .433 | 6.2% | 13.6% | 15.3% | 35.0% | 1.3% |
| Detroit Tigers | 23 | 37 | 13 | .383 | 2.2% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.5% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Houston Astros | 35 | 25 | — | .583 | 42.5% | 27.8% | 10.3% | 80.5% | 6.1% |
| Oakland A’s | 35 | 25 | — | .583 | 36.7% | 29.6% | 10.9% | 77.3% | 5.4% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 30 | 30 | 5 | .500 | 12.4% | 21.0% | 15.1% | 48.5% | 2.1% |
| Texas Rangers | 26 | 34 | 9 | .433 | 6.8% | 15.1% | 13.9% | 35.8% | 1.3% |
| Seattle Mariners | 22 | 38 | 13 | .367 | 1.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 16.0% | 0.4% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Atlanta Braves | 34 | 26 | — | .567 | 33.3% | 25.0% | 18.6% | 76.9% | 5.6% |
| Washington Nationals | 33 | 27 | 1 | .550 | 31.0% | 24.9% | 18.6% | 74.5% | 5.2% |
| New York Mets | 30 | 30 | 4 | .500 | 19.1% | 22.1% | 17.1% | 58.3% | 3.4% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 28 | 32 | 6 | .467 | 12.6% | 18.5% | 14.4% | 45.5% | 2.3% |
| Miami Marlins | 25 | 35 | 9 | .417 | 4.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 19.9% | 0.8% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Chicago Cubs | 33 | 27 | — | .550 | 35.9% | 23.9% | 14.2% | 74.0% | 5.1% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 28 | 1 | .533 | 22.1% | 22.8% | 13.8% | 58.7% | 3.2% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 29 | 2 | .517 | 21.1% | 22.4% | 13.4% | 57.0% | 3.1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 31 | 4 | .483 | 16.5% | 20.5% | 12.4% | 49.3% | 2.5% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 24 | 36 | 9 | .400 | 4.5% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 19.8% | 0.7% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 37 | 23 | — | .617 | 53.3% | 24.3% | 15.8% | 93.4% | 8.8% |
| San Diego Padres | 34 | 26 | 3 | .567 | 27.5% | 30.4% | 20.5% | 78.4% | 5.0% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 28 | 32 | 9 | .467 | 9.7% | 19.6% | 13.5% | 42.8% | 2.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 27 | 33 | 10 | .450 | 5.4% | 13.7% | 8.9% | 28.0% | 1.1% |
| San Francisco Giants | 26 | 34 | 11 | .433 | 4.2% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 23.5% | 0.9% |
As you can see, games have consequences and in a 60-game season, the results of individual contests have an out-sized effect on the standings. Not to keep bringing up the Orioles, but simply winning two-of-three rather than one-of-three against the Red Sox was enough to bump them up a whole win in 60 games and add five percentage points of playoff probability!
This is going to be a volatile season, even before accounting for the uncertain effects of COVID-19, which has caused the postponement of four games already.
One last chart. Here’s how those three or four games have changed the playoff and championship probabilities.
| Team | Playoffs | Opening Playoffs | Change | WS Win | Opening WS Win | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 74.0% | 64.6% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| San Diego Padres | 78.4% | 72.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 13.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Oakland A’s | 77.3% | 72.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 45.5% | 40.5% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 83.8% | 80.0% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 0.9% |
| San Francisco Giants | 23.5% | 19.8% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 40.5% | 37.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Cleveland Indians | 75.4% | 73.8% | 1.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 0.3% |
| Miami Marlins | 19.9% | 18.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 58.7% | 57.6% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 35.0% | 33.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| New York Mets | 58.3% | 57.4% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Seattle Mariners | 16.0% | 15.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 28.0% | 27.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Chicago White Sox | 60.6% | 60.7% | -0.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 19.6% | 20.1% | -0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| New York Yankees | 85.3% | 86.0% | -0.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | -0.2% |
| Houston Astros | 80.5% | 81.3% | -0.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | -0.3% |
| Minnesota Twins | 78.7% | 79.5% | -0.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | -0.2% |
| Atlanta Braves | 76.9% | 77.8% | -1.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Washington Nationals | 74.5% | 75.9% | -1.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | -0.1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 57.0% | 58.5% | -1.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 93.4% | 95.2% | -1.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | -0.7% |
| Texas Rangers | 35.8% | 40.0% | -4.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | -0.3% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 19.8% | 25.3% | -5.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | -0.3% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 48.5% | 54.2% | -5.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | -0.5% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 49.3% | 56.8% | -7.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | -0.7% |
| Boston Red Sox | 49.9% | 57.8% | -7.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | -0.7% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 42.8% | 52.3% | -9.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | -0.6% |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
The 2020 baseball “season” is a dangerous farce that is going to get people killed and writing about it legitimizes a dangerous farce that is going to get people killed.
ok doomer