The Astros Are the New Royals
Did you hear the news? Last postseason, the Royals made quite a name for themselves. In the midst of their first playoff run in 30 years, Kansas City carved out their own brand of baseball. For the first time in a long time, “Royals baseball” meant something positive, something exciting, something worth watching. The Royals captured our hearts until the final out of Game 7, with their unique blend of speed, defense and a dominant bullpen — a postseason formula that had long lurked in the shadows of the traditional power pitching and power hitting approaches.
Did you hear the news? What’s written above still holds true, but there’s a new Royals in town. You might not have heard about them, because they haven’t yet made their feel-good World Series run that still only has something like a 1-in-3 chance of actually materializing. Also, the Old Royals are still here and they’re still quite good, and these New Royals don’t quite feel like the Old Royals, but that’s just on the surface. Dig a little deeper, and you’ll find that the Houston Astros are the New Royals.
Speed
The Astros are the New Royals because of their speed. Did you know the Astros had speed? I’m not even talking about Triples King, Evan Gattis. No, I’m talking about real speed. Did you know the Astros stole 121 bases this year? Most in the American League and 17 more than the Old Royals?
We all know about Jose Altuve. Little guy stole 56 bases last year. The success rate dropped a bit this season and he wound up with “just” 38, but he’s still second in baseball over the last four years with 162 steals and — wait, why am I trying to justify Jose Altuve’s speed to you? Of course he’s fast. Everyone knows that. It’s the other guys that need talked about.
It’s Carlos Correa‘s 14 major-league steals, which, when added to his 18 minor-league steals prior to his debut, make for an impressive total. It’s George Springer’s 16 steals, despite missing roughly one-third of the regular season. It’s Jake Marisnick being perhaps the sneakiest, most underrated base stealer in baseball. Say, did you know Marisnick stole 24 bases this year with just 372 plate appearances and a .281 OBP? That’s remarkable. For some context, I whipped up a quick leaderboard to help illustrate Marisnick’s ability. All I’ve done is take total steals, and divide it by the total number of times reaching base, with homers and triples excluded. A rough proxy of how often, upon reaching, one successfully swipes an extra bag:
Steals/Times reaching base:
- Billy Hamilton, 47%
- Dee Gordon, 25%
- Jake Marisnick, 25%
- Charlie Blackmon, 20%
- A.J. Pollock, 17%
Had you ever before thought of Jake Marisnick as a Dee Gordon-like base stealer? You have now.
Defense
The Astros are the New Royals because of their defense. Did you know the Astros play great defense? I sure didn’t. Rather, I sure didn’t expect them to. Before the start of the season, I previewed all 30 team defenses. Within that preview, the Astros are ranked as the 28th-best team defense. At the time, it wasn’t a controversial ranking. The Astros, for three years running, were among the league’s worst defensive teams by both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. This season’s Astros rank fourth in team DRS. This season’s Astros rank fourth in defensive efficiency. This season’s Astros are closer to the middle of the pack by UZR, but, point is, they’re at least a good defensive team, if not an elite defensive team, depending on what metrics you value.
The preseason preview assumed Colby Rasmus would spend lots of time in center, unable to foresee the extent of the role Marisnick would play, that he would post a +20.3 UZR/150, good for third-best among all MLB outfielders, or that the Astros would trade for Gold Glover Carlos Gomez. The preview assumed an underqualified Jed Lowrie would receive the bulk of the time at shortstop, unable to foresee that he’d be moved to third after an injury and a Correa promotion. The preview assumed Altuve would continue to be among the league’s worst defensive infielders, unable to foresee his apparent improvement in the field.
The preview assumed that the Astros wouldn’t have a great defense, unable to foresee that the preview would be wrong.
Bullpen
The Astros are the New Royals because of their bullpen. Did you know that the Astros had the best bullpen in baseball this season, by FIP? The sixth-best, by ERA?
Tony Sipp and Will Harris each finished the regular season as qualified relievers with ERAs that begin with a 1. Josh Fields struck out a third of all the batters he faced, and posted a top-10 FIP, one spot ahead of Wade Davis. And those are just the guys that get Houston to their closer, Luke Gregerson, who, despite a bit of a down season statistically, has a long track record as one of the game’s more effective relievers.
To be fair, none of those guys compare to a 2014 Davis, Greg Holland, or even Kelvin Herrera, who set a new bar for what the back end of a bullpen can look like. This year’s Astros pen might not have quite the dominant, eye-popping numbers, but what they lack in stuff, they help make up for in depth.
Unique Offensive Approach
The buzzword, with last year’s Royals offense, was “home runs.” The Royals didn’t hit any home runs. Their lineup had a unique, somewhat experimental construction, and some people weren’t sure how to feel about it. Ended up not mattering. Production is production, whether it comes with home runs, and the Royals got their production. It was fun to watch.
The buzzword, with this year’s Astros offense, is “strikeouts.” The Astros strike out a ton. Their lineup has a somewhat unique, experimental construction, and some people aren’t sure how to feel about it. Ended up not mattering, at least for the regular season. Production is production, whether it’s littered with strikeouts, and the Astros have gotten their production. It’s fun to watch.
Good for the Game
It’s undeniable that last year’s Royals were great for the game of baseball. The team had been through hard times, what with their three-decade playoff drought and all, and it was refreshing to see them defy the odds and play exciting baseball. They were also good for baseball because they highlighted the importance of some potentially undervalued aspects of the game — notably speed, defense, and non-traditional lineup construction and bullpen deployment — for the common fan on a national stage.
Though you might hear this year’s Astros described as “one-dimensional,” the narrative being that they live and die by the homer, that couldn’t be further from the truth. The Astros run, play defense, and can wrap games up with a lead after six innings with their bullpen, as did last year’s Royals. And, like that same Kansas City team, a deep postseason run by Houston would be great for the game. A compelling turnaround by a team that was considered the laughingstock of the MLB just a couple years ago, led by an unconventional approach that could help shift the public perception of strikeouts, home runs, and teams built around the extremes.
This isn’t meant to persuade the rooting interest of you, the reader. When you don’t have a horse in the race, every team is interesting and worth rooting for in some way. It’s also not meant to serve as a death sentence to Kansas City. They’re still a great team, a fun team, and a very-much-alive team, though last night’s Game 1 loss to the New Royals did drop the Old Royals to the bottom of our World Series odds, with the New Royals pacing the American League. It’s simply meant to point out that the Astros, like last year’s Royals, are a fresh, unique, and fun team, who aren’t as one-dimensional as you might think. Lucky us for getting to see them play one another. It’s too bad only one can move on.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
Half of fun of the Royals was their storyline as well: historically terrible franchise with a rebuild so long last year’s success felt more like a fluke than a foregone conclusion. (And their rise to playoff qualification and WC heroics set them up as the epitome of an underdog on the postseason alone: KC being a good team was only half-discussed throughout most of the regular season.)
HOU doesn’t quite have that same charm. Similar to the Cubs, they were a surprise only in that no one thought their heralded rebuild would pay off quite yet; their franchise’s pain isn’t quite so deep; and coverage of HOU as coming out of left field was tapped months ago. Which isn’t to say they’re not a fun team to root for (though I’d guess Jacob Nix won’t be cheering too loudly), just to appreciate how much the stars aligned for KC last year.
“their franchise’s pain isn’t quite so deep”
I know right! We don’t know the pain of actually winning a World Series…
“their franchise’s pain isn’t quite so deep”
The Houston Astros have never won a World Series. In 53 years, they have won 1 pennant.
It’s not just that they’ve only been to 1 World Series in 53 years (only to be swept). It’s how they’ve lost. Losing in ’80 to the eventual champion Phillies w/4 of 5 of those games going to extra innings. Losing in ’86 to the eventual champion Mets despite a 3-0 lead in the 9th of game 6 and Mike Scott on deck for game 7. Getting upset by Kevin Brown and the Padres in ’98 despite a team that won 101 games and Randy Johnson as ace. Even the World Series sweep was torture. Everyone of those games was close with half of them decided by a Brad Lidge meltdown at the end. Not to mention the even more painful memories associated with Astros fandom: J.R. Richard, Don Wilson, Dickie Thon. Even Caminiti and Darryl Kile, though they were with other teams at the end, are part of that sad legacy for Astros fans who grew up watching them.
Of course fans of other teams have their litany too. But trust me on this, for any longtime Astros fan, the only other fans they’re going to feel sympathy for when it comes to comparing franchise pain are the Cubs’.
To be fair, at least the Astros have been to the World Series and have been to the ALCS with a legit team multiple times.
Sincerely,
A Mariners Fan
P.S.: There is no spite in that, of course. I know it can be easy to forget about us. After all, we’ve never had a single WS appearance in 37 seasons and have had all of 4 — count ’em; 4 — playoff appearances. We may be able to debate which is a more futile franchise, but I’d rather share a beer and mope together about our shared futility.
The Astros have never been to the ALCS…they were a National League team until the last few years, forced to move despite Milwaukee previously playing in the AL. However, I think the move has been excellent for the Astros!
The Royals made much greater use of their team speed and athleticism because they always put the ball in play; which is something the Astros clearly don’t do.
This is a fair point, and certainly one worth noting! And something I meant to get to in the piece before it began to run long!
No worries – the article was a good read. Glad to see you back at fangraphs.
Much appreciated, Gay Ozzie Guillen.
Astros made pretty good use of their team speed and athleticism when Gomez chased down that drive in the 9th. Shame Cain couldn’t do the same….
The Astros storyline is equally fun. The Stros haven’t been good since the Killer B’s and they set the bar for holding on too long and then starting from rock bottom. Remember when media pundits were floored by Correa going 1st overall and passing on Buxton? Well that has worked out pretty well, plus they were able to get McCullers later as a result of the Correa savings.
What’s more is this team is littered with likeable players. Gattis has a cool story and lumbers up there with no batting gloves. Altuve is barely 5’6 and probably the best player on the team. Keuchel came out of nowhere to produce a CY season. Correa, McCullers, Springer, and Marisnick are all really young and fun to watch.
Now if they could only get rid of that stupid hill in center…
They are, in fact, getting rid of the hill in center.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/128572614/astros-receive-approval-to-remove-tals-hill
Speaking from personal experience: Altuve is 2-3 inches shorter than 5’6″
That’s what she said.
And she wasn’t talking about his height.
How the “that’s what she said” zinger works. There is no need for a clarification sentence.
Let’s see 5’6″ minus 3 inches… {stomp, stomp, stomp}…DAMN that’s downright horse-like, especially for a little guy like him.
Just neighing.
And we’ll never be Astros (Astrooooos), it don’t ruh-roh in our blood…..
B-ref actually has Stolen Base Opportunities in its database and Hamilton tried to steal 57% of the time he had a chance and successfully stole the base ahead of him 50% of the time it was open (not 50% of the times he tried, 50% of the time the base was open). Similar to your table, his numbers just dwarf everyone else. Really the last player like that was Vince Coleman. Billy Hamilton might be the biggest outlier/anomaly in baseball right now,there just literally is nobody like him in baseball and hasn’t been in a long time.
1) The Cubs winning a World Series would be *the* sports story of the year.
2) Aside from decades of failure, Royals fans have (for the most part) also dealt with decades of failure from their football team. All things considered, there may be more sports-pain in that fanbase than in the Cubs fanbase (at least have the Jordan Bulls and the Blackhawks to keep them entertained lately).
3) Hard not to root for the Mets, they have that lovable loser vibe although they have had some success.
4) Houston, for the reasons mentioned
6) Blue Jays, the entire nation would erupt if this team won the WS. Plus I like the idea of Canada winning more baseball titles than Stanley Cups. OTOH, they keep winning hockey gold medals, so nvm I’m dropping them to #6.
5) Get Beltre a ring already, plue they probably came closer to winning a WS without actually getting a ring.
7) Get Kershaw, Greinke and Mattingly rings already. Counterpoint: $$$$$
8) St. Louis…just to watch haters break the internet. And they do legitimately care more about baseball than tackle handegg, which is a nice bonus.
Love it! Root for every team!
the crap shoot is amidst!
these ‘stro’s ain’t Royal
Houston probably cares more about one of their local HS teams does against Corpus Christi than they do about the Astros.
The thing is, last year the Royals didn’t have to face THE ROYALS.
Houston A__holes is more like it…
Jinx.
I can’t think of 2 more dissimilar teams. Astros have good SPing Royals don’t, Royals have better RP’ers, Astros hit HR’s and K a lot, Royals don’t hit HR’s or K a lot. Both teams are young and play good defense and steal, but thats about it
They have players and are in the Central Time Zone. Maybe that’s where this article is going.
I don’t buy this for two reasons:
– Power: Houston had 230 HRs this year ( 2nd ), 2014 KC had 95 ( dead last )
– Strikeouts on offense: Houston first two years in a row, KC last two years in a row.
As far as the approach to power vs. contact they are literally as far apart as you can get.
Apparently you didn’t read the article.
No, I didn’t, but if you use a counterfactual headline to draw attention to the rest of your story, you have to deal with the occasional person who’ll criticize you based solely on the counterfactual headline.
Your holiness Pope Francis, I don’t buy your more tolerant image for two reasons:
-Child abuse: you still haven’t really addressed it
-Women in the clergy: you have clung to an obsolete stance.
(I didn’t read your comment, but if you use someone else’s name, you have to deal with the occasional person who’ll criticize you based solely on the shared name).
There’s more than one person named Francis, weirdo.
Your criticism can’t be taken seriously, since you didn’t read the article. Your assumption that its a counterfactual headline is incorrect; which reading the article would prove.
The Royals are the new Royals. the Astros will have better luck next year…