The Blue Jays Should Plan for 2020
Entering play today, four American League teams have better than a 94% chance of making the playoffs. You are probably aware that those teams are the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, and Astros. The Yankees (99.9%), Red Sox (99.6%), and Astros (99.8%) are projected as locks for the postseason barring a series of catastrophes. The Astros (+138), Red Sox (+103), and Yankees (+91) also rank Nos. 1-2-3 in the majors in run differential. In 2016, only five clubs in baseball produced 100-plus run differentials. In 2015 and 2014? Only four.
The only postseason races that appear likely to provide compelling theatre later this summer are the battle for the AL East crown (the Yankees and Red Sox ought to be aggressive buyers) and the second Wild Card. But with Shohei Ohtani’s right UCL apparently hanging on by a thread, and Andrelton Simmons also on the DL, the Mariners are in a seemingly strong position to capture the second Wild Card — though their modest run differential (+27) casts some doubt over their staying power, leaving open the door open for the Twins and Angels. The Mariners, with what remains of the farm system, also ought to try and strengthen their grasp of a playoff position.
Still, the Mariners (73.5%) are the only other AL team with better than coin-flip odds of making the postseason. In fact, the Mariners and Angels are the only other two teams with double-digit odds of making the playoffs.
Heading into the season, there was much talk about a growing divide between the Have and Have Nots, about the growing canyon between Super Teams and Tanking Teams following NBA-, Astros-, Cubs-style demolitions to add financial flexible and assets (draft picks, pool space) with which to accelerate rebuilds. While Ben Lindbergh found, after the season, that what we saw in 2017 was not a departure from historical norms, the AL field, at the moment, is even more extreme than it was a year ago.
Consider that one year ago to the day, only one team — the Astros — had a 90% chance of reaching the postseason. Ten AL teams had double-digit odds or better. This season, it’s six.
Two years ago to the day, 12 teams had double-digit probability, eight had 30% or better, and all five AL East teams had at least a 13.5% mark. The Blue Jays and Orioles had coin-flip odds.
Three years ago to the day, 10 teams had a 20% playoff probability or better in the AL, and eight teams, over half the league, had a 35% or greater chance.
Four years ago, on June 14, 2014, 10 teams also had a 20% or better chance of the reaching the postseason.
While the NL field is fairly wide open, the AL field is unusually extreme.
While we cannot retrieve to-the-day playoff odds beyond 2014, this landscape feels particularly unusual. Whether this is an outlier season, or the consequences of a Super Team-and-Tanking environment, we’ll have to see. But there are plenty of incentives to be really bad, from hopes of accelerating rebuilds to making cash through revenue sharing and shared media dollars with reduced payrolls.
So what about that shrinking class of teams in the middle? The Twins were among the teams that added this offseason to seemingly build upon their greater-than-expected 2017 season and make a play for a Wild Card. While the Twins are six games under .500, they do have the benefit of playing in the AL Central with an unbalanced schedule. Perhaps it’s too early to consider selling assets. The Twins have the seventh-best postseason odds in the AL at 8.0%. Six teams have playoff odds of 0.3% or worse: the Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox.
Another team that attempted to boost their odds of slipping into a postseason spot were the Blue Jays, with subtle offseason moves like adding Yangervis Solarte and Jaime Garcia, but they ought to sell what they can… and quickly.
The Blue Jays are eight games under .500 and 15.5 games behind the Yankees. They have 1.5% probability of qualifying for the postseason. It appears their attempt to thread the needle in 2018 has failed.
The good news is they might possess the top prospect in baseball in Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Their Double-A infield includes two other legacy prospects in Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, other future building blocks. Sean Reid-Foley is rebuilding his prospect status on the mound with a strong season to date. Reese McGuire could be part of the future at catcher. Reid-Foley and Biggio were not even regarded as top 10 organizational prospects to begin the season. There are a lot of good things going on down on the farm, which makes the Blue Jays’ situation less dire than that of, say, the Royals and Tigers. A turnaround in Toronto shouldn’t require a decade of patience. It could happen relatively quickly, at least in terms of competing for Wild Cards. But it’s time for Toronto to shed assets that are impending free agents and/or are not going to be part of the next core or surrounding it.
And in a landscape littered with non-contending clubs, the Blue Jays might want to get out ahead of the market and sell what they have.
There should be a strong market for J.A. Happ, a free agent after the season. There is probably little market for Josh Donaldson at this precise moment because of his health, but the Blue Jays ought at least to explore what demand exists. Marcus Stroman is getting close to returning and is under club control for just two more seasons. While he could be built around and extended, conceivably, if Stroman can prove he’s healthy prior to the deadline, the Blue Jays ought to at least explore to see if someone will pay a hefty return. Kevin Pillar is under club control for two more years and could upgrade many center fields. Justin Smoak has a team option for next season. Russell Martin has an awful BABIP, but he can still frame and has shown he has positional versatility — he could have some value if the Blue Jays eat his contract. Relievers are at a premium as we witnessed last deadline and in the offseason, so most of the Blue Jays’ relief corps ought to be on the block.
The Blue Jays’ future resides at Double-A, and it’s not that far away. And perhaps rather than looking at 2018 as a failed shot at contention, it can now be looked upon as an opportunity to add to the next core. By selling short-term control assets now, the Blue Jays can shorten their downturn. Now, this might be easier said than done in a landscape of sellers, but there will be buyers. Considering that the first sellers to the market might have an advantage, now is the time to sell in Toronto.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
While I agree with your overall point, Danny Jansen should be the catcher in 2020, not Reese McGuire. The Blue Jays are allowed to use players at levels other than AA in their system for the rebuild.
Ha. McGuire is Triple-A! The Blue Jays could have two in-house catching options in 2020 in Jansen and McGuire. Jansen is the more highly-regarded prospect. I mentioned McGuire because he’s rehabbed his prospect status along with Reid-Foley … in addition to some of their more notable top 10 prospects like Jansen. The system has made gains since the start of the year.
Maybe I’m missing something with McGuire but he still looks like a guy on a backup catcher career trajectory to me.
A lot of people were sucked in by McGuire’s big power breakout in AA. At this point, I think we should be pretty skeptical of any left hander who starts whacking lots of homers in AA. Rowdy Tellez did it, Reese McGuire did it, Ryan Schimpf did it, Cavan Biggio is doing it now. The power gains suddenly evaporate when they get to AAA.
That said, he’s a good defensive catcher on the big side of a platoon and you would think at the minimum he’d be able to do that.
might not want to jump the gun there.
McGuire (40gms)
First 20: 78pa, 5.0b%/20.0k%, .190bip/.160avg, .053iso, 15wrc+
Last 20: 78pa, 15.4b%/16.7k%, ,383bip/.333avg, .117iso, 168wrc+
Last year (135wrc+) was the first year McGuire wasn’t young for his level, and this year (91wrc+) is the 2nd year he hasn’t been young for his level, and both marks are encouraging for a defense-first catcher. If he continues his recent trend this year and goes way back over 100wrc+ here this year again like he was last year, then he looks like starting catcher potential.
And don’t look now, but my boy Rowdy is also in his first year where he’s not young for his level, and he’s started to wake up now too.
Rowdy (53gms)
First 27: 111pa, 12.6b%/18.0k%, .289bip/.240avg, .073iso, 89wrc+
Last 26: 105pa, 8.7b%/16.3k%, .306bip/.278avg, .189iso, 131wrc+
and for the record, Rowdy’s AA power wasn’t out of nowhere.
Age 18 (Rk): .137iso
Age 19 (Rk/A): .133iso
Age 20 (A): .148iso
Age 21 (A+): .198iso
Age 22 (AA): .233iso
the real power spike came the year prior in A+, though really that looks more like a fairly steady power improvement as a player young for his levels gets older and stronger. And none of those numbers explain his nosedive in AAA.
And I don’t get your ryan schimpf comment – Schimpf has a .300 career iso in the MAJORS.
Schimpf
MLB: ,300iso
AAA: .237iso
AA: .273iso
A+: .209iso
I don’t know how you could possibly conclude there is anything other than a massive advantage to left-handed power in New Hampshire. McGuire had a .217 ISO in AA, and has never cracked .09 at any other level. Tellez mashed 23 homers in AA and then only 6 in AAA. Cavan Biggio has more than doubled his ISO (and hit more homers in half the PAs) than he did in single-A.
This is to be expected. The right-field line is only 306 feet. Of course left-handed mashers are going to have a power breakout. Given the available evidence and the obvious explanation, I don’t know why anyone could argue against the idea that left-handers often experience a power breakout in New Hampshire that may not be sustainable later.
well, given the numbers I just posted, it seems clear you are hugely exaggerated any effect. Rowdy went from a .198 to a .233, which is well in the range of normal growth. Schimpf has a higher MLB iso than he did in AA. Your biggio example doesn’t even make sense, given he’s just no in AA.
and the Jays have had plenty of LHH prospects who haven’t enjoyed any power boost there – Smith, Urena, Snider, etc.
not to say there’s no effect, but you seem to making a bigger deal out of it than it actually is.
Biggio has been better on the road than at home though.
Biggo has 4 HR at home this season and 10 HR on the road with virtually the same # of PA (130 vs 133 respectively)
You had me until Rowdy
Rowdy shall be avenged.
let’s not forget about Kevin Smith! SS in High A. Dude has improved significantly this year!
While the Sox, Yankees, and Astros are extraordinarily good, they got that way through getting extraordinary collections of great young talent. But the dynamics of baseball have changed in the past couple years. Between draft pools, international signings limitations, and a de facto salary cap, it will be very hard to put together and sustain excellence like that in the coming years.
Yeah I’d be shocked if this wasn’t the plan. I’d go as far as to say they should move everybody on the current 25 man roster, in addition to the guys who are pending FA this season and the 2019/2020 group including Smoak/Pillar.
I don’t know if the Jays will be able to move Stroman now until he shows he’s healthy and productive. Sanchez has to show he’s productive before they can sell him.
Oddly the guy who might have the most value right now is Tepera who has a ton of control as he’s not near FA, and we’ve seen relievers get paid a ton.
The Blue Jays were clearly treading water, hoping to put a semi-competitive product on the field while keeping themselves flexible for a couple years down the road. From that perspective, they’ve done pretty well.
And the farm system does look really good, perhaps even better than Travis says. Between Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, and Luke Maile, they’ve got a great set of options at catcher. Guerrero and Bichette and Biggio (between them) should nail down 2B/3B. Logan Warmoth could be an answer at shortstop, and Alford looks like he could potentially hold down CF. If either Warmoth or Alford pans out, you’ve got four of the five most difficult non-pitcher positions to fill. It’s a lot easier to fill in 1B and the corner outfield from what’s left over, and Teoscar Hernandez looks like he could hold down one corner spot anyway.
If they can target guys with an ETA of 2020 who play anything other than 2B, 3B, or C they could have a huge crop of talented youngsters to go along with Teoscar Hernandez and Aaron Sanchez. They’d need more pitching for certain (since Pearson and Reid-Foley are their only real starting pitching prospects right now, and they’ll have a million holes in the rotation)…but I do think that Donaldson and Happ could return top-100 prospects, and Granderson and Solarte and Pillar and Loup could return something of value.
(One caveat about Biggio–sometimes left-handed hitters look really good in that AA ballpark.)
I’m not sure I’d want to build around Sanchez. I think Stroman is a better option. Sanchez hasn’t looked right in years, his 2 seam fastball/sinker isn’t as effective as it’s been in the past, and he’s really been unreliable against lefties outside of 2016.
If someone offers a good package for Sanchez now I’d take it.
probably a great buy-low opportunity on Stroman and Sanchez right now – both for the Jays extending or for other teams trading for them.
Edit: Ignore.
I guess I don’t see any reason why the Jays would want to trade Sanchez or Stroman at the absolute nadir of their value. Nor do I see any reason why a contender would be interested in trying to fix either one while they’re in the middle of a playoff hunt. They have to rebuild some value.
That said, I only mentioned Sanchez as a future building block because I thought he had a lot of team control, and I was mistaken on that point. That makes the need to find pitching even more acute.
Yeah the Jays definitely need to find more pitching.
As far as Stro/Sanchez they can’t trade either until they perform well for multiple months, that’s clear. My point is that I don’t see Sanchez rebounding, whereas I do Stroman once he’s healthy. The quality of Sanchez’s stuff just isn’t what it used to be.
I think pretty much any FV50 pitcher listed here is a reasonable target for Donaldson or Happ (assuming that the team is actually looking for Donaldson or Happ):
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/
This list includes Ian Anderson, Franklyn Kilome, Griffin Canning, Kolby Allard, and Adbert Alzolay…all of whom would fit the timeline. Not that any or all of those guys will be available. But if the Blue Jays are going to restart in 2020, more guys like that are likely necessary (since half of pitching prospects bust anyway, and they’ll have no one of note in the rotation).
2020
stroman 29
Sanchez 27
Borucki 26
R-Foley 24
Zeuch 24
Pearson 23
A contender might want Sanchez as a bullpen option down the stretch, and might be willing to pay something for him. I don’t see anyone being too interested in him as a starter at this point unless he *really* turns it around soon and puts up a dominant month or so on the mound.
is there any evidence that Sanchez’s stuff has eroded? or is it just his longstanding bugaboo of not commanding the ball?
i might take Sanchez just cause of the arm. Stroman i think has a ceiling maybe around a 3-4 starter these days. peripherals have trended consistently down since his rookie season. he’s really a guy in need of a new wrinkle, cause the extreme sinker/slider thing has gotten worse and worse results over the years.
how have his peripherals trended down?
as SP
2014: 20gs, 85era-, 73fip-, 84xfip-
2015: 4gs, 41era-, 87fip-, 83xfip-
2016: 32g, 103era-, 86fip-, 80xfip-
2017: 33gs, 70era-, 88fip-, 82xfip-
2018: 7gs, 184era-, 109fip-, 95xfip-
Career: 96gs, 90era-, 86fip-, 82xfip-
This year’s tiny sample is off but otherwise his peripherals have been extremely steady….and much better than 3-4 starter quality.
Not to speak for him but I would assume that by peripherals he means K%, BB%, HR/FB etc etc. And to that extent his statement is pretty accurate.
Stroman’s BB% and HR/FB% especially have steadily increased each year since his debut in 2014 (and they are up again this year) while his K% has remained fairly flat. Something like xFIP would not show this because it uses league average HR/FB rate as opposed to actual HR/FB and ERA- would not show this because, well its ERA based. It simply shows ERA in relation to the rest of the league.
If you look at Stromans SIERA, which is almost certainly a better measurement of peripherals than ERA- or xFIP, it has gone up every single year he has been in the league.
2014 – 3.18
2015 – 3.28
2016 – 3.62
2017 – 3.85
2018 – 4.23
you dont even need to look at SIERA. Plain old FIP specifically looks at just peripherals (BB, K, HR) and it has also gone up every single year Stroman has been in the league. Pointing to ERA-, FIP- or xFIP in a discussion about peripherals is really pretty nonsensical. Unless you dont know what those stats measure and/or what a peripheral is.
The previous poster is pretty spot on with his assessment about Stroman.
oh I see, you guys still use unadjusted stats.
imo that’s misleading yourself.
league FIP last 5yrs:
3.74
3.96
4.19
4.36
4.05 (small sample)
what you’re seeing is a league wide effect, not stroman specific.
You talk about being misleading and then use a macro stat like league wide FIP to hand wave away the clearly rising peripherals of a single pitcher.
So do you just think every SP in baseball has had their FIP steadily rise a full run the past 5 years? is that how you think it works?
lol.
yes, on average, pitchers have seen their fips rise as shown.
that’s exactly how that works.
Yup, it only makes sense to retool for 2020 and beyond. You’re not making it this year. Maybe next year you have a shot, but the kids will still be very raw then, and still a few bad contracts on the books, so I wouldn’t count on it being overly likely. But if these kids are as good as we think, then certainly they could be back in the picture by 2020, especially if they can add another couple pieces this year from selling guys.
The Blue Jays should view the 2012 Phillies as a cautionary tale. Like the current Blue Jays, they were caught in the middle, with ageing assets that still had some value, and an upstart Nationals team that was just starting their contention window. They held on too long, and ended up getting greatly reduced returns, if any, the players they eventually flipped. As a result, the Phillies have been wondering in the wilderness until finally showing signs of life this year.
The Blue Jays aren’t in quite the same situation. Their farm system isn’t barren the way the 2012 Phillies farm was. As the article mentions, a few shrewd moves will have them back in the mix as early as 2020. But its still better to rebuild too early instead of waiting until it is too late.
Well, one argument currently is that there isn’t a ton of value on the current roster. Happ should be sold for a decent return, but Donaldson’s going to need a couple healthy months to bring back a value much higher than the QO would return.
Ideally they should have done this a year ago, when they could have gotten a much larger value back for a guy like Donaldson. What they get back now for guys like Pillar, Martin, Smoak isn’t really going to move the needle a lot (although obviously every little bit helps).
Last year the Jays were coming off of an ALCS run. Would’ve been odd to blow it up then even though in hindsight, it may have been a good move.
This last offseason though, they definitely should have. This is likely confirmation bias talking but it was pretty clear that the offseason moves were Band-Aid solutions, trying to drag out the contention window past where it had already closed. The core from 15-16 were either aging or gone. Vladdy and Bo are still a year or two away. Donaldson’s on the wrong side of 30 and his value would never be higher. They couldn’t get any superstar talent and had to make do with good, but not great players like Granderson.
Now, Donaldson’s value has dropped, the only trade piece really is Happ. Injuries have killed Tulo as expected and Martin has lost his value in the lineup. We’re half a season closer to Vladdy and Bo’s prime. A rebuild now is already late, but better than never I suppose.
those phillies were screwed by absolutely pathetic drafting for near a decade. not by their investments in big contract players, imo.
they literally didn’t draft one good mlber in at least a 7yr stretch (maybe more, but it’s been a while since I remember checking).
I don’t see any parallels between the 2012 Phillies and the 2018 Jays, the O’s are more like the 2012 Phillies and I think you could argue that the 2018 Blue Jays look more like the 2016 Yankees. The turn around might not be a single year as the Yankees were able to do but the lack of future commitments and impact prospect on the horizon means it will be quick, much like the O’s do right now, when the Phillies entered their rebuild they had/have unmovable contracts, players with NTC’s, aging stars with little value and a baron farm. I will say that the O’s have a lot of potentially valuable pieces, more then the 2012 Phillies but I just don’t see how the O’s FO isn’t going to fuck this up.
The Phillies are farming barons? Atrocious!
Yes *barren was the word I wanted to use, also at the beginning I wanted to use the phrase *I don’t see many parallels* not *any parallels*, your beef is with auto-correct. I neither fixed it during the editing period or commented on it to correct it because I thought we were all adults with the same types of issues with auto-correct and everyone could infer from context, my mistake.
I thought twitter killed the spirit of internet grammar & spelling crusaders, I stand corrected.
JK. It jumped out at me and I couldn’t resist. ;^)
fair enough
Do you think Kevin Smith will soon merit inclusion in the discussion of Blue Jays infield of 2020? They seem to think he could be with the quick promotion he received to high-A this year (and his continuing to rake there).
No need to wait for 2020. They could trade all the vets and field a young team RIGHT NOW that would be no worse than what they’re already doing so far. And might even be better. Certainly more fun to watch.
.
.
with MLB career numbers (milb numbers for current year only):
CF Pompey (25): 158pa, 83wrc+ (AAA 129wrc+)
RF Grichuk (26): 1505pa, 105wrc+
LF Hernandez (25): 433pa, 118wrc+
3B Gurriel (24): 70pa, 42wrc+ (AAA 127wrc+)
SS Diaz (27): 919pa, 105wrc+
2B Travis (27): 988pa, 105wrc+
1B Guerrero (19): (AA 205wrc+)
C Jansen (23): (AAA 159wrc+)
DH Smith (25): 62pa, 144wrc+ (AAA 142wrc+)
UT Tellez (23): (AAA 109wrc+) —————— Lopes (24): (AAA 109wrc+)
OF Alford (23): (AAA 54wrc+) ——————- Biggio (23): (AA 170wrc+)
IF Urena (22): 94pa, 62wrc+ (AAA 82wrc+) – Bichette (20: (AA 125wrc+)
C Maile (27): 414pa, 50wrc+ ——————— McGuire (23): (AAA 91wrc+)
.
.
SP Stroman (27): 600.0ip, 92era-/86fip-/82xfip-
SP Sanchez (25): 426.0ip, 77era-/98fip-/100xfip-
SP Gaviglio (27): 98.0ip, 100era-/129fip-/107xfip-
SP Biagini (27): 106.2ip, 139era-/104fip-/100xfip-
SP R-Foley (22): (AAA 6.75era/1,82fip/2.92xfip)
SP Borucki (24): (AAA 3.60era/4.18fip/4.15xfip)
SP Zeuch (22): (AA 3,32era/4.16fip/4.36xfip)
.
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might as well get started on this right here in 2018, imo.
injuries and development probably have some say in this matter.
might be a handful of those guys who need more development time than they’ll have had by the trade deadline, but not many. And as you can see, there’s extras to to go around.
This Frankenteam loses 100+ a year.
so 10 more losses for $150m cheaper.
And nothing was accomplished.
aside from all the trade returns from all the vets.
and actually giving all those deserving kids a shot to play.
2020 won’t necessarily offer easier competition. The Red Sox should still be relevant, though likely no longer juggernauts, the Astros and Yankees will probably still be great, the White Sox and A’s should be playoff-quality with their youth movements maturing, and there will be a few other wild card competitors– Trout/Ohtani will still be a thing, maybe the Rays, the husk of Cleveland, etc. Competition for free agents might also be fierce, with several rebuilding teams (White Sox, Phillies, Padres, Braves, etc.) looking to pry their windows open with big veteran splashes.
Pretty sure signing Axford, Oh, Clippard, and Granderson this winter was partly to acquire more young talent.