The Danger of Upside

Last year’s free agent market had a surplus of one thing – talented starting pitchers with health concerns. The market was flooded with guys who had previous success but were battling questions about the conditions of their arms, and were going to settle for one year deals because of it. And, pretty much without fail, they’ve all been busts.

Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer, Chien-Ming Wang, and Erik Bedard were given a total of $25 million in guaranteed money as free agents. They have produced a grand total of +0.3 wins of value as a group, so they’re on pace to have bilked their teams out of $20 million over the course of the season. Now, things could change, and maybe Bedard or Wang will pitch well down the stretch or Sheets will have a great finish to the year, but so far, they’ve essentially been a waste of cash. It gets even worse if you include Brandon Webb’s $8 million option that the Diamondbacks exercised to keep him from hitting the market.

I think most of us thought that these deals were, by and large, good risk/reward propositions. Sheets got a bit more money than expected, but still, his contract wasn’t seen as too far out of line with what he could produce. And yet, the whole group has basically been a failure. It makes me wonder if most of us are overvaluing perceived upside in pitcher valuations.

After all, arm injuries don’t just sideline players, but they also diminish velocity and command, leading to lower levels of effectiveness. Even though Sheets has avoided the DL, he’s still not what he used to be. Harden lost enough off his fastball that he can’t really challenge hitters anymore, leading his always problematic walk rate even higher. And the rest of the group has spent nearly the entire season on the DL.

Upside is a tricky thing. It is the perception of what a guy could be, not necessarily a realistic expectation of what he will be. So far, in 2010, teams who spent on upside have been burned by doing so. I would imagine the money won’t flow so freely for guys with health concerns this winter, and perhaps that reaction is the correct one.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

31 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Mike Green
13 years ago

I wouldn’t put Harden in the same category as the rest. He had pitched well enough in 2009, albeit nowhere near his career best. The Rangers were effectively not paying for “upside”, but rather for what he had been able to produce every year of his career including 2009.

It seems that the biggest change between 2009 and 2010 has been a loss of effectiveness for his change-up, with the result that opponent’s contact rates are way up. His ball-to-strike ratio is at about his career norms, but it appears that more 2 strike pitches are being fouled off.

oompaloopma
13 years ago
Reply to  Mike Green

What are you looking at his 2/3 year stats at roughly 140 innings? His upside is not his stats, its will he may pitch an entire season.