The Death of the Sinker
This is Alex Stumpf’s third piece as part of his May residency at FanGraphs. Stumpf covers the Pirates and also Duquesne basketball for The Point of Pittsburgh. You can find him on Twitter, as well. Read the work of previous residents here.
Jared Hughes first realized his sinker might be something special in little league. He was admittedly goofy, uncoordinated and a head taller than anyone else on his team, but he pitched. One day when throwing sinkers during a bullpen session with his dad, he was given very simple advice that he would ride throughout his playing career.
“He said ‘keep throwing that. That’s the one right there that will make you a major leaguer,’” Hughes said.
The sinker did make Hughes a major leaguer. Now 6’7”, more coordinated but still goofy, few have thrown sinkers as often as he has. In 2016, only Brandon Kintzler threw as many as he did and have it represent as high of a percentage of his pitch selection. It has allowed him to pursue his true baseball love: groundballs. Armed with that pitch, he has posted the 12th best grounder rate out of all relievers since his debut in 2011.
Hughes is passionate about groundballs. He says it’s a way of life for him, delivered in a way that is half joke and two-thirds heartfelt sincerity. He talks about groundballs the same way a high school English teacher would “Romeo and Juliet.” He is not a strikeout pitcher. He is not going to use the four quadrants as effectively as others. What he does is punish batters for going below the strikezone and getting groundballs with his sinker.
It’s Hughes’ way of life. It’s also a pitch that is being thrown less and less.
Teams are valuing velocity more and more, especially in the bullpen, and a sinker does not, cannot and will not have the same giddy up as a four-seamer. Home runs are more prevalent, and in a world where uppercut swings has put the league at the cusp of a flyball revolution, the lower part of the zone is starting to become more dangerous to navigate through. Talk of raising the strikezone only amplifies those fears.
Hughes has noticed the change around the league. The Pirates — the team that drafted him, raised him through the farm system and made him a staple in their bullpen — cut him loose in late March after an off year and an unimpressive spring. His new team, the Brewers, have three sinkerballers in the bullpen, joined by Jhan Marinez and Rob Scahill.
According to Baseball Savant, in 2008, pitchers threw 101,091 sinkers. 900 games into 2017, there were 8,554 pitches classified as sinkers. If sinkers were being thrown at the same rate now as they were in 2008, there would have been over 10,000 more.
Hughes says his sinkers are being misclassified as four seamers, and any time there’s a big shift in pitch-type data, you have to be aware that it might be a change in classification algorithm more than a change in pitch-type usage. But this also doesn’t have to be an either/or situation; it’s possible that fewer sinkers are being classified as such, but also that the pitch is also falling out of favor in the big leagues.
| Year | Sinkers | % of Pitches | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 101,091 | 14.2 | |
| 2009 | 95,765 | 13.3 | |
| 2010 | 97,896 | 13.8 | |
| 2011 | 86,879 | 12.3 | |
| 2012 | 79,460 | 11.3 | |
| 2013 | 73,358 | 10.3 | |
| 2014 | 70,689 | 10.0 | |
| 2015 | 59,684 | 8.5 | |
| 2016 | 50,025 | 7.0 | |
| 2017 (projected) | 46,192 | 6.4 |
Despite the decrease in sinkers, grounders are still being induced at a fairly consistent pace, never deviating from its 43.9-45.3% clip in 10 years. The top six league leaders in groundball percentage have not thrown a sinker this year. Kyle Freeland, Clayton Richard and Dallas Keuchel have two-seamers. Marcus Stroman, Robert Gsellman and Lance McCullers do not, relying on anything from cutters to knuckle-curves to get the job done.
And if there is anything being valued more than worm-killers now, it’s strikeouts, which is a sinker’s achilles heel. Less than one half of one percent of sinkers have been a whiff this year, and since a good sinker doesn’t sniff the zone, it’s no surprise that only one in 77 are looked at for a strike. It is no coincidence that the league’s increase in strikeouts is coinciding with the fall of the pitch that is designed to be put in play.
Even though the trend points to the sinker being phased out, there are exceptions to the rule. Some of the best pitchers in the game right now have it in their arsenal. Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard and Kyle Hendricks all finished in the top 10 in the NL Cy Young voting in 2016 and are throwing it for over 42% of their pitches this year. If the two-seamer is considered as well, it brings in even more prestigious names like Stroman, Keuchel and Zach Britton.
It’s why Hughes is confident that the pitch he threw to his dad on a little league field and in front of sellout crowds is not going anywhere. He stands by a belief that has been ingrained in him that the best way to get a grounder is late downward movement, and it will always stay in style. If used correctly and executed well, it’s as deadly as it has ever been, even if it is not as utilized.
“I don’t think the sinker’s gone,” Hughes said. “I think teams might be trying to find a way to focus on velocity, but in my opinion, the sinker is the best pitch in baseball.”
Thanks for sharing but this piece was…underwhelming?
This is a fair criticism. It is unclear if the author considered two-seam fastball classification. Are two-seamers on the rise (basically the same pitch) as compensation? It doesnt seem very likely that sinkers are going away considering many SP rely on this approach.
No mention of Zach Britton was disappointing.
One thing to look at: What has been the trend with two-seamers? I confess ignorance as to how Pitch F/X discriminates two-seamers from sinkers, but in casual usage among baseball people they sometimes refer to the same thing. At any rate, they can have the same effect though we tend to associate the 2-seamer with more armside run than downward movement.
Yeah good call. The article’s table shows a fall from 14% to 7%, from 2008 to 2016.
Fangraphs Pf/x data went from 21% to 9% SI, 2010 to 2016, but at the same time up from 10% to 15% FT. I give 2010 because 2008 didn’t have any SI or FT! They must have been bundled under FA?
So yeah. You really have to know what the pitch classification is doing.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=9&season=2016&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=p2017-05-08
The problem with this pitch was evident with Kendall Graveman against the Twins…you just wait it out. It’s not a strike so you wait until you get something to hit. The Twins weren’t biting on that slop and he got bombed.
It was more that he was missing location than anything, every other game this season has has consistently stayed on the corners. He’ll have games like the one vs. the Twins every now and again because the command isn’t going to be there every time.
If the SZ is being ‘moved’ up, and fewer low strikes are being called, then that may explain some of its decline in use, and effectiveness when used. For it to be most effective, count leverage is a must.
The pitch can be thrown for a strike just as any other pitch can. A good pitcher isn’t going to be constantly dropping it in the dirt or something like that.
Interesting trend that I don’t recall seeing identified before. Thanks.
Stroman doesn’t throw a 2 seamer? [insert Wat? gif]
I notice that this is Mr. Stumpf’s 2nd second article.
Sinkers and two-seam fastballs are the same. Full stop. Stroman definitely throws a two seamer. If you google Stroman two-seamer: you get:
The science behind Marcus Stroman’s stellar sinker | Toronto Star
https://www.thestar.com › Sports › Blue Jays
May 12, 2016 – Stroman’s sinking, two-seam fastball has made him one of Major League Baseball’s best ground-ball pitchers –
and there are even images!
I will admit that maybe statcast has different classification rules, but pitchers are generally 4 seam or 2 seam guys and it would be incredibly rare for someone two stop throwing a 2 seam fastball after doing it their entire life. Maybe in some instances adding a 4 seam fastball up in the zone to a repertoire to match a curveball would be a development.
FWIW I was a college pitcher and basically never threw a 4 seam fastball except for pitch outs.
Also, where is the only 1 in 77 are called strikes and they ‘don’t sniff the zone’ coming from? It sounds like people are bowler sinkers up to the plate, which is just not accurate.
I agree that classifying 2-seamers and sinkers as separate pitches seems a little off.
It might be a mistake to conflate grip with pitch. For instance, what Carpenter threw in with the Cardinals was gripped as a two seam, but his finger pressure variation gave him the same pitch, absent tilt, on both sides of the plate.
LOL, Dave Duncan might argue that insight with you.
No they are not the same. They can potentially move the same based on finger position and pressure on the ball as well as release angle. They are still different grips and different pitches.
SucramRenrut (and others), I got curious about this so I googled it. And I got this:
http://whygavs.com/pittsburgh-pirates/not-all-two-seamers-are-created-equal.html
Can you just quickly respond to this so I get a better sense of why you think they are the same? I don’t know that much about this, so I just want to clarify.
“I have a sinker now, and it’s good,” Stroman said, proudly. “It’s a good pitch, and I get excited when I throw it.”
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/91927188/marcus-stromans-variety-of-pitches-spicing-things-up/
If the classification scheme is differentiating a sinker from a two seamer then the classification scheme needs to be reconsidered. Those are the same pitch.
I am wondering what the algorithm is differentiating here. Perhaps someone can clarify. Is the algorithm just binning two seam fastballs with more movement into the sinker category, and those with less into the 2 seam category?
I just had a look at a few pitchers who throw the highest proportion of sinkers in my mind: Ivan Nova and Zach Britton. According to the pitchfx pitch types listed on FanGraphs, neither of these guys ever throw sinkers. Instead they throw 2-seamers. This really is just a classification problem and a terminology problem. Sinkers are 2-seam fastballs.
Yes I think the uppercut swings tend to be more vulnerable up when you can throw with rise above the loop of the swing.the uppercut is perfect to golf low balls out.
But still a really good sinker like britton that has velo can get batters out.
“Less than one half of one percent of sinkers have been a whiff this year”
Where are you getting this data? Baseball Savant shows just over 7% – a big difference
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=SI%7C&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=missed%5C.%5C.bunt%7Cfoul%5C.%5C.tip%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.pitchout%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%7Cswinging%5C.%5C.strike%5C.%5C.blocked%7C&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=league&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0&chk_pitch_type=on#results
Hey, Dave, where is the editing for content?
Combining 2-seam and sinker, the decline is much less stark – it goes from about 24% of pitches in 2008 to 19% of pitches in 2017. So there’s a very real decline – but apportioning it to sinkers and 2-seamers seems tough.
The larger trend here that impacts this is the decline in fastballs of ANY kind. The league, as a whole, is throwing more bendy stuff and change-ups, and thus less fastballs.
Fangraphs’ data shows a decline of 5 percentage points over this same timeline (2008-2017) by BIS data, and a bit lower than that by the pitch fx data.
(As a side note, Fangraphs’ pitch fx data do not show a drop in sinker+2-seam usage, just a shift between two seemingly arbitrary labels. It was ~ 19% in 2010, and it’s ~19% this year).
Wait a minute! Why are you classifying the sinker and the two-seam fastball differently? Isn’t a two-seam fastball exactly what a sinker is?! I thought they were the same pitch, like calling a cut fastball a cutter or a curveball an Uncle Charlie. If not, what’s the difference?
The Cardinals are another team that still preaches the sinker. Wainwright, Lynn, Leake, and Bowman all throw a significant number of sinkers, and there may be a couple others who throw it as well.