The Deserving All-Stars: AL Edition
Just like the NL crop this afternoon, let’s take a look at where the AL voting would leave us as of today, and then I’ll give my picks below.
Catcher: Russell Martin
First Base: Adrian Gonzalez
Second Base: Robinson Cano
Shortstop: Derek Jeter
Third Base: Alex Rodriguez
Left Field: Josh Hamilton
Center Field: Curtis Granderson
Right Field: Jose Bautista
Designated Hitter: David Ortiz
The moral of this story? There are too many Yankees fans currently occupying the planet. Also, they have a lot of money and some pretty good players. That said, if I were picking the team, the line-up would be significantly less Yankee-centric, and I think most of us could agree that that would be a great thing.
My team? Glad you asked. Same as before – starters listed first, every team gets a rep.
Catcher: Alex Avila, Matt Wieters, Kurt Suzuki
Avila has been the league’s best catcher this year, Wieters is quietly having a good season, and Suzuki gets the A’s nod here because I couldn’t figure out how to get Trevor Cahill on the pitching staff – the rest of that roster is blech.
First Base: Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Paul Konerko
No real news here – these guys are pretty awesome.
Second Base: Howie Kendrick, Ben Zobrist, Robinson Cano
Kendrick gets the start so that Zobrist can fill the utility role, and Cano gets the nod over Pedroia because he’s healthy.
Shortstop: Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta
Ramirez’s massive imporvement deserves to be recognized, and his superior defense gives him the nod over Cabrera. Peralta is probably one of the surprising first half stories, but he’s legitimately been excellent for the Tigers.
Third Base: Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Beltre, Kevin Youkilis,
Longoria lost his spot when it was pointed out that I forgot to include David Ortiz at DH, and someone had to go. Lots of good candidates here, though.
Outfield: Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, Denard Span, Matt Joyce, Alex Gordon
We make room for the extra infielders by only carrying five outfielders – Zobrist can move to the OF at the end of the game. The first two are easy calls, and Joyce has been good enough to earn this. Span is having a terrific year and Minnesota needs a rep, while Gordon is having a slightly less great year but is the best of the KC bunch.
Designated Hitter: David Ortiz
.437 wOBA. That is all.
Starting Pitcher: Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, David Price, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, Alexi Ogando
I don’t know that there’s a credible case to exclude any of the first seven, who are all among the game’s premier starting pitchers, but there are a lot of guys who could make a strong case for that final spot. I went with Ogando over other deserving picks including James Shields, Michael Pineda, and Justin Masterson. Sorry guys – only so many spots, and way too many good arms in the AL this year.
Relief Pitcher: Mariano Rivera, Jordan Walden, Rafael Perez, David Pauley
Rivera has earned a lifetime achievement spot, but he’s still dominating, so he gets his usual closer role. Walden brings his ridiculous fastball to the bullpen, and Rafael Perez gives us a high quality lefty. Pauley is the controversial pick of the day, but it’s hard to argue against the guy who is #1 among AL relievers in both innings pitched and ERA. He’s obviously not as good as his numbers suggest, but for two months, he’s been lights out. There are a bunch of guys who could reasonably fill that last bullpen spot, of course, and I won’t argue if you want Kyle Farnsworth (this deserves a post in itself), David Robertson, or Daniel Bard instead.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Koji Uehara x1000000.
Check out his numbers before you criticize, especially Shutdowns and Meltdowns (11:1, probably best ration in baseball). He’s been amazing, despite (inexplicably) not being used as Baltimore’s closer. Easily as good as any of the relievers picked or those mentioned as other possibilities.
The best ration in baseball is a $8.00 beer at the Red Loft @ Nats Park.
Nicely done.
I’ll be there all week.
should be 9$ , 1 $ going to strike out cancer
Cancer, you’re fucking out!
I thought it was mixing a half pint from the liquor store across South Capitol with a small diet coke???
The little people in baseball article was cover last week. Besides, I don’t think they’d mix well with a small diet coke.
Your attempt to jinx Euhara was successful. John Farrell and crew applaud you.
I’d take off longoria and replace him with Adam jones, who’s having a fine year.
No need for four third basemen, and while longoria is a fine player, he’s having an average year.
Asdrubal and Rafael Perez are both Indians
“Rafael Perez gives us a high quality lefty and Cleveland a representative”
Can’t argue much else. Maybe Andrus instead of Peralta for late inning D after Ramirez goes out.
Peralta can also play OF.
Wait, so the Yankees AREN’T deserving? No way could fanbase skew voting…
No Jacoby Ellsbury? He makes a better case than any of Beltre, Youkilis, Longoria. He’s tied with Joyce and only .1 WAR behind Span. A 3-4 performance tonight could make him one of the top 3 OF in the AL and deserving of a starting spot.
WAR is overrated, and minn needs a rep. sorry jacob.
Correct. I’m sick of everybody quoting WAR like its the end of the conversation. If anything, WRAA is a much better stat to quote since fielding is so volatile.
Ellsbury’s case is based on far more than just WAR. He’s a CF hitting .318/.376/.477 and leading the league in steals.
His fielding is actually negative, so whats your point exactly?
John, so look at his 15.8 wRAA, add in any positional adjustment of your choosing, and call him the 3rd best outfielder in the AL (behind Bautista and Granderson).
Wait, so Ortiz doesn’t make your team? Or am I missing something?
Well, crap. I guess one of the third baseman has to go away after all. Good catch.
Good picks, Dave. You can always argue a bit over the borderline candidates, but I’d take that team anyday.
Carlos Quentin > Alex Gordon.
And I do understand that the Royals need a rep.
If you take Quentin over Gordon, you’re going to have to come up with another Royal for the team. Go ahead, I’ll wait.
Aaron Crowe?
Can’t we just give them extra spots on the futures team?
If the Royals have a rep, you can’t call it “deserving All-Stars”… there’s no way you can leave Quentin off of this team
Going to leave off DH Ortiz? Ouch Papi no happy. He’s definitely deserving. Probably top 10 wOBA this season and more traditional stats to back it up
Why Cano? Pedroia has been worth almost a full win more by WAR! He plays every day, so what helath issues? I’ll take that over a guy with a sub-5% BB rate who can’t field.
ill take the guy with an OPS of .827 over the guy with an OPS of .747
Cano can’t field? He’s a better fielder then Pedroia
Good for you. i’ll take a guy with a 17.4 uzr/150 over one with -2.8.
And i’ll take the 2.7 WAR over 1.9 WAR.
Maybe the health issues refers to Pedroia’s struggling at the plate (which possibly result from an injury) but considering defense he is still at least as deserving as Cano imo.
Way to be rash and use UZR from 2.5 months of Data when UZR isn’t even reliable to make judgements on until you have 3 years of Data
I’ll give you that Cano is having a down year in the field though while Pedroia is having a better year then normal
Right-and to you and DD80 I’ll say this-Cano never has been or will be a good fielder-3 years and more of data of UZR say Pedroia>>Cano in the field. Despite the better hitting, Pedroia > Cano.
UZR isn’t indicative of true talent level over 2.5 months – but neither is OPS. It’s pretty silly to compare players based only on OPS in the first place – not to mention that OPS undervalues getting on base, which Pedroia has been very good at, and which Cano has been very mediocre at.
ddriver80, Pedroia’s UZR 150 for his career is much better than Cano’s. Also, Pedroia has had a positive UZR every year except one while Cano has had a negative UZR every year but one. Additionally, Pedroia has much better career DRS and TZL numbers as well.
Wasn’t aware UZR determined everything defensively. If you look at the numbers from last year, Cano led all AL 2B in Putouts, Assists, DP’s and tied for the fewest errors in the league.
This year he has not been good though at all but last year he was one of the best in the league.
And I will agree Pedroia > Cano defensively overall
People who use counting stats to try to prove anything don’t deserve internet connections to begin with, but then you have to try to apply it when comparing to a guy who missed half the season to injury?
Come on!
Few errors = bad range.
Putouts, assists, DP’s = your pitchers are getting groundballs.
MB,
I’m not sure why you seem to imply that I believe “UZR determined everything defensively” since I mentioned DRS and TZL as well. No, those three measures do not determine everything about a player’s defensive abilities, but they’re much better indicators than putouts, assists, double plays and total errors.
UZR and UZR/150 for middle infielders is probably the worst statistic to use.
UZR isn’t a good statistic for MI, 1B and CF In my opinion. It always clashes with TZL, rPM, DRS which are usually in aggreement. For corner OF and 3rd base though, Its usually pretty good.
My guess is UZR is less reliable due to the fact that middle infielders play shifts so much more then the corner positions.
ddriver80,
I’m not going to debate anything you claim about UZR because I am not exactly sure how it accounts for shifts. However, if you are going to say that it is probably the worst tool to use when evaluating middle infielders, I think you need to provide evidence of how and why your claim is true.
But let’s forget UZR. DRS, rPM, and TZL all have Pedroia rated much, much higher than Cano for their careers. If you want to claim Cano has improved since his early years, fine. Last three full seasons (2008-2010) Pedroia is +30 DRS, +22 rPM, +21.7 TZL. Cano is +1 DRS, -2 rPM, +6.9 TZL.
ddriver80,
When I say you need to provide evidence about how and why UZR is insufficient for middle infielders I mean that you need to show some kind of proof that yes, UZR inaccurately gauges middle infield play. Just saying that you think it does isn’t good enough.
I wonder if Jeter “earns” another gold glove this year
It’s not a “flashy range” glove, it’s a “solid” gold glove.
Gold Gloves are pretty heavy, must be why Jeter can’t move that far!
to be fair he’s an ok fielder as long as you don’t hit it to his left, which i believe is the exact criteria for winning a gold glove, yes? maybe he and betancourt will be allowed to tandem field at some point and between the two of them they can field the entire shortstop position
I made it on the list, surprising cause I’m in high A ball!
Alburquerque should’ve been in over Pauley. He’s on pace to break the single season K/9 record.
Albuquerque honestly looks like Lidge before Pujols ruined his mental state. That slider is ridiculous.
I’m surprised Jorge Posada isn’t leading the fan’s vote for starting catcher.
Because he’s listed on the ballot as a DH, maybe.
Yeah, so? They could write him in! Would it shock you if he was in the top ten in write-ins?
im just surprised they stopped trying to write in bernie williams
And how is Rafael Perez on there? 14 K’s, 9 walks in 25 innings, good god, he shouldn’t even be in the majors.
I think he screwed up should be Chris Perez no?
‘Cept C. Perez isn’t a lefty or a lone Indians rep. No reason to have anybody from their bullpen on the team.
No Pineda for pitchers? I get you’ve got a grudge against him, but he’s a legit RoY and all-star candidate. Especially for Seattle.
you think Dave has a grudge against a great young Mariners pitcher?
He rather publicly said he didn’t think Pineda was much this year.
Not sure if serious…
Source? I have never seen a discouraging work from Dave regarding Pineda. The only thingI remember is that if he’s brought along too quickly, he may struggle against lefties because he needs more work on his changeup. If you have something else, I’d love to see it.
Link to where “He rather publicly said he didn’t think Pineda was much this year” please.
Because all I remember Dave saying (prior to the beginning of the season mind you) is that Pineda’s offspeed stuff didn’t look strong enough to survive in the Majors. Thus far Pineda has been fantastic with his double plus fastball and his good slider, proving half of Dave’s point wrong (that changeup still needs a lot of work). And from this you determine Dave is holding a grudge against the best thing to happen to the Mariners since Felix?
I seem to recall that somewhere he said he’d take Kyle McClellan over Pineda. I think it was in a chat. Oops.
You can argue that Pineda’s future performance might not be sustainably good, but it’s hard to argue that what he’s accomplished thus far this season isn’t All-Star worthy. He has a 3.07 FIP and 3.5 K/BB. He’s averaging almost a K/IP.
Without looking it up, I’d venture to say those numbers are better than at least a couple of the SP’s that were selected.
Ok, now I looked it up and that FIP ranks 6th in the AL among starters. Just ahead of Verlander and Beckett and a half run ahead of Ogando…
“He rather publicly said he didn’t think Pineda was much this year.”
He did predict that Pineda could struggle a bit upon promotion, but his attitude since Pineda has shown him to be wrong has been anything but bitter. He’s a Mariner fan. He loves what Pineda is doing.
As an avid USSMariner.com reader. I can pretty much remember Dave’s comments about Pineda. He predicted that he would do very well against right handed hitters but would probably struggle against lefties. This was due to Pineda’s lack of a good change-up. However, he has made comments (I cannot remember if it were posts, chats, or podcasts) that he was wrong about Pineda and is very happy so far. He has posited that Pineda will not be this good long term as he will lose a little velocity in the future. I’m not Dave but I’m guessing that he did not pick Pineda due to his Mariner fandom and did not want to cause controversy as a result of this (we all remember the #6 org article, which given the quasi-curse it has caused for the Mariners and Twins can someone make the Yankees the #6 org next year please?), he only selected Pauley due to his really good numbers.
No Adam Lind at first?
And Ogando over someone like Romero? Ogando is not going to keep this up, his peripherals are terrible, especially for playing in Arlington.
I don’t think Ogando is amazing or anything but he definitely doesn’t have horrible peripherals, his K/BB has improved by month. He’ll definitely regress but he’s a good pitcher.
He’s got a nasty fastball and slider, which makes me wonder how he only has a 36% GB rate.
I think he’s going to be one of those guys that defies sabermetrics, but with some regression of course
By horrible periferals i mean his Batted ball rates, and LOB%
Turns out you can be a fine pitcher and also a flyball pitcher. Who knew? Not that Ogando is the posterboy for that movement, but Weaver is.
I’m refering in terms of his home field, which is a Kraft Dinner carton where Fly ball pitchers should struggle
I really don’t get the whole voting for guys who are not stars (performance-wise I mean) or future stars because they had a good two months. Given that many of them are likely to regress (David Pauley!) in the second half, and the fact that their two best months came in April/May is just random/luck, it just seems silly to me.
I laugh at the people who think they’re intelligent because they decry the “popularity contest” aspect. It should be a popularity contest. It’s an all-star game.
The word “Deserving” here is a joke. The fact that two months of performance is considered the definition of “deserving” by a smart guy like Dave really bugs me.
I agree to an extent. But players should still be deserving. Perhaps we should expand the performance we are considering to all games played since last all-star game. That way it would be a full season of performance coming into play.
I understand this sentiment, but I believe each All Star selection should be made on the merits of the current season and nothing else. If you base it on prior performance, I think you skew the evaluation of players’ overall careers. When a player retires, if he’s a 7-time All Star, I want that to mean that he was independently worthy in 7 different seasons, not that he was worthy in 4 seasons and then got in on reputation in 3 more.
Now, I realize that sample size and the inability to get a whole year’s body of work are issues, but I think we can live with it. Flukey All Star selections happen; there will always be the occasional Mike Sharperson or Lance Carter. And his B-R page will have that red and blue band and “All Star” logo forever. When those guys retire, they’ll be answers to obscure trivia questions. I’m okay with that.
derek jeter will make the allstar team. is he deserving this year, or is his awesome career and reputation getting him in?
Is that a trick question, phoenix2042?
by awesome career and reputation i think you mean yankee fan base
But the ASG voting starts so early, MLB is forcing fans to chose based on previous years. Since it is in the middle of the year, I’d like it to be based on performance from poll closing to poll closing.
Derek Jeter is not the first all-star selection based on his career numbers. Ripken, Griffey,, Gwynn, Sosa and many others were voted into the starting lineup long after they were deserving. This is not just something that happens to Yankees.
All-Star games aren’t a life-time achievement award. They have actual awards for that. All-Star games reward popularity and current performance, and they should. Dave isn’t making the case that they shouldn’t. But what’s popular to you, isn’t what is important to everyone, and isn’t what is important to Dave. We individually shape what is popular. This is Dave’s column. If you don’t like it, go click on some other link. Better yet, go write your own column and see how popular it gets.
this is an example of a very good article. I think Martin deserves to be the number 2 catcher and VMart should be somewhere, but the top list is the same one I had a month ago.
V-Mart has started a whopping fifteen games behind the plate this year and having two pure DH’s on the squad would be silly. If Ortiz had gotten off to his customary slow start of the last few years, you could MAYBE make an argument for Martinez, but with the way Ortiz is killing the ball, Martinez stays home this time.
I like how suddenly it’s okay to value ERA when we’re talking about an underdog Mariner. His xFIP (as Dave Cameron has told us many times, is best when looking at small samples) is good, but barely puts him in the top 20 in the AL alone among relievers.
BTW, I would say the same if he played for Cleveland, I just think the bias here is obvious/comical. Before you attack me for taking the AS Game too seriously, just remember the outcry over Omar Infante last year. It’s fine to bitch when the pick doesn’t suit your agenda.
Agreed Noom, League even puts up better numbers then Pauley, but since Mariners hate League because of 3 blown saves, they wont give him anything
League hasn’t put up better numbers than Pauly.
IP, ERA, FIP, xFIP:
Pauley: 38.1 – 0.94/2.49/3.23
League: 28.0 – 4.18/2.64/3.11
They’re close and Pauley has had more luck on his side in terms of BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB, but League’s numbers aren’t better.
I’d just go with Pauley because he’s posted those numbers leading the majors in innings pitched for a reliever, he’s not as good as those numbers, but not many are.
But, shouldn’t All Star game selection be based on the actual results not on projected results? If a pitcher has a great XFIP, but his ERA sucks because of the Luck Dragon or poor defense, he shouldn’t get in. Awards should be based on results, not expected results. In this case, ERA is more important than xFIP or FIP. I hope my team picks players based on expected results, but pitchers should be rewarded for good results, regardless of their sustainability.
“Way to be rash and use UZR from 2.5 months of Data when UZR isn’t even reliable to make judgements on until you have 3 years of Data”
You’re right, let’s take 3 years of data:
Pedroia: +10.7
Cano: -4.4
Only a difference of 15 runs.
But Cano is black and athletic, he must be better!
And you actually value UZR?
UZR is a terrible statistic, I mean 3 separate stats (rPS, DRS, TZL) and the Fielding Bible voters say that Yunel Escobar is a better then Alexei Ramirez, but then people say Ramirez is better because of UZR, when in fact it isn’t the case, it makes UZR a joke.
But no, Cano isn’t a better fielder, I was mocking commentators on YES who are like hurr durr, Cano best second baseman because of how he turns double plays.
Maybe UZR really is junk, but then again, you apparently also think that 1 is better than 9 in TZL (Escobar vs. Ramirez’s TZL in 2010), so maybe you shouldn’t be so strident in your claims.
I’m not just taking about last year. From 2008-2010, the only thing that Ramirez leads in is UZR, Escobar superior in all other metrics, maybe the field in the Rogers center screws with UZR, because we do use numerous shifts and Toronto’s MI’s are always subject to UZRs that are below their actual value, Aaron Hill, Escobar etc. Even when Fielding bible voters and other metrics say that they are far better then their UZR.
I don’t trust UZR at all, especially not for half a season
1) You’re including a year Ramirez played a different position, one that he’d never played regularly before. It skews his numbers, because he was pretty clearly terrible at 2B. It was also his first year in the country. It doesn’t seem to be relevant at all to his shortstop play.
2) You hate UZR, but are fine with TZL despite an utterly silly 28 for Escobar in 2009? That’s more ridiculous than anything UZR has to say on Ramirez’s or Escobar’s defense. Was Escobar’s TZL of 1 in 2010 screwed up by some unknown Rogers Centre bias as well? Maybe defensive stats just hate Canada?
Basically, my point is this: I’m not saying any one stat is obviously junk or obviously correct. But you are ripping people who blindly accept a certain number as truth by blindingly accepting certain numbers as truth yourself.
And claiming that UZR is biased against Blue Jays doesn’t really help the argument.
Either way, TZL, rPM, DRS are all usually in agreement on everything while UZR has constant misfits (like Alexei) And I meant to right 2009.
And Rogers Center has always not reflected kindly on MI for the Jays in terms of UZR as Fielding Bible voting and all these other metrics show.
UZR is silly to use if you aren’t going to use it right. As I said, UZR works for Corner OF, 3rd base, and that is about it
mocking commentators on YES for totally ignoring bad defense is hardly fair sport
Because The Fielding Bible voters aren’t basing any of their opinion on UZR, right.
What?
I mean looking back to last year Cano was voted a better fielder then Pedroia.
I don’t think you follow what I’m saying. I’m saying UZR is a joke.
Using the term “UZR is a joke” isn’t going to win you any points with someone trying to champion its use…
It’s just a narrow view of one aspect of defense. People try to pretend like it’s a number that can be pointed at when it really needs supplemental data to be useful.
UZR does have its place, but in context.
I would like to see UZR stop using zones and tracking where players start the play
My point for tracking where players start the play is it seems that MI’s on teams that use alot of shifts tend to have inherently lower UZR’s.
I think UZR is only really usefull for Corner OF’s
“I mean looking back to last year Cano was voted a better fielder then Pedroia.”
Which couldn’t conceivably have ANYTHING to do with the fact Pedroia missed over half of the season.
Johnathan.
Completely miss the part above where I mention I’m mocking YES commentators?
Really, tell us more.
Drop Zorbrist or Beltre, add Quentin. Not sure why Zorbrist is on this list, David Price can be the Ray’s rep.
… and Beltre? really?
Oh, and Q has a better OPS .941 than Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez. Boot any of them instead.
So “All-Star” now means the player with the best 1st-half of a season – unless it means something else you want it to mean?
You might as well be a “sportswriter” for the Daily News and pick ALL Yankees.
Funny the 4 best American league hitters are fairly recent NL transplants
Bautista
Gonzalez
Cabrera
Hamilton
but the NL sure has inferior talent
Well, by your admission, it is at least 4 talents inferior…
I feel like allot of the AL superiority has to do with the High budget AL teams being better able to bring in uber free agents, the ability to DH those uber free agents later in a big contract plays a big role as well.
except all four of those players came over in trades
Bingo Typical,
Also, Chair, yes to your second point, not sure that it helps you. Big markets like the NYY and BOS spend, bring big talent over, and in turn other AL teams need to do the same in order to compete (on the whole, not everyone does it). As a result, the AL is more talented.
This is Carson’s alterego, isn’t it.
Yes, all four of those players came over in trade, but in the case of Cabrera and Gonzales, these trades were made entirely for financial reasons.
“I feel like allot of the AL superiority has to do with the High budget AL teams being better able to bring in uber free agents”
Its got nothing to do with that. NYY is a special case, but for every Boston, there’s a NYM,or CHC, thats spending just as much money. Boston has just done a much better job at it (and at internally developing talent )
Adam Lind
Adam Lind
400 wba
above average fielding
that is all
right now i would say the best hope is for cabrera to overtake jeter and ellsbury to overtake hamilton
great post !
Using the term “lifetime achievement” in this article is ironic.
Pineda needs to sit out the All Star Game to work on his secondary pitches, obviously.
Seriously, though, a rookie who is quickly piling up the innings should be thankful for the extra days off. An All Star appearance, even just an inning, would be a mixed blessing.
Can someone explain to me the Senior/Junior distinction between the National and Amerian Leagues
NL is the Senior circuit because it has been around for longer.
Longoria: About as many WAR as Beltre and Youkilis with 30 fewer games. He’s just better.
so sergio room doesn’t get the nod for you because he is a righty specialist, while rafael perez gets the nod as a lefty specialist with a 1.56 k/bb ratio??????????????????
Sometimes if you spray a little compressed air under your keys it will stop them from sticking.
I feel pretty confident in saying that James Shields has had a better year than CC, Felix and Price to this point. Understand that Felix probably has to go and that Price actually had better peripheral stats (if only slightly). However, I think CC is out well before Shields and some of the other guys you listed as just out.
The Tigers are the team getting the shaft… Avila should be the starting catcher and Miguel Cabrera should arguably be the first base starter.
While there is a significant difference in WAR, you have to consider that Gonzalez UZR #’s are way out of wack from his career norms. He had a career UZR/150 of ~1.6 coming into this year (yet still gets the “one of the better” first baseman tag attached to him, more so now as he plays for the RedSox) and his UZR/150 this year is nearly 15…. that jump is pretty much equal to the WAR difference between the two.
Cabrera has a marginally better wOBA and when you look at the parks these guys play in and their respective home /road splits, I’d give the edge offensively to Cabrera…
Sorry… not meant as a response to the comment above…
Right now, Cabrera and Gonzalez have identical wOBA of .423. By virtue of the fact Cabrera’s a terrible fielder and Gonzalez is at the least decent, there’s not much argument to be made. Cabrera deserves to be on the team, but Gonzalez unquestionably deserves the starting nod.
Unless Cabrera was outright killing Gonzalez offensively, Gonzalez would deserve the nod for his better defense. The only thing Cabrera’s doing better than Gonzalez right now is drawing walks.
Rather have Miggy over AGon for the simple fact that AGon’s BA is fluketastic at the moment.
Fluktastic?
He went from the worst hitting stadium in the majors, to one thats great for guys who hit the ball in the air to left.
He’s hitting .330 for the same reason Beltre hit .330 last year: the monster.
Splits 2011:
Home: .359/.408/.573
Away: .336/.387/.600
Career:
Home: .271/.364/.451
Away: .306/.377/.570
So we’re talking .30/.10/.30 in his away numbers, which is minor, and could be explained by lineup, etc. His home numbers are hugely different, which is completely in line with the park effects.
Gonzalez’s away split from last year:
.315/.402/.578
His crazy numbers are park effect. It makes a diference.
Are you honestly trying to say he’s a .347 hitter? Wow RC, homerism to the max. Yeah Fluketastic, at best he’s a slightly better than .300 hitter.
They have identical wOBA’s but Gonzalez has a .384 BABIP..
While you expect his BABIP to go up from his career average moving to hitter friendly Fenway… that’s flukish (his 2011 BABIP on the road is .374, home 394). His career BABIP on the road is .324…. Fenway is not tacking 70 points on that and the AL parks are not tacking on 50 points over the NL parks
Miguel Cabrera’s BABIP is .326…. which is below his career average.
And while Miguel Cabrera is not a defensive whiz at 1st… he’s been there all of 4 years and his career UZR/150 is -2.5 vs Gonzalez’s 1.6…. while I would take Gonzalez over him defensively any day of the week, the #’s are not as different as people might think
I’m just saying the decision is not as clear cut as folks are making it. The #’s as is give a slight nod to Gonzalez, but if you consider some of the peripherals and regress the #’s a bit, I think Cabrera would get the nod.
No, I’m not saying hes a .340 hitter, but hes been a .320 hitter now over 3 years of away at-bats.
So there’s a very real posibility that hes a .320 hitter, and that playing half his games in a very friendly park for his skills could put him in the .330 range.
Not sure where you get .320 from… his career road average is .305.
If you are referring to the last 3 calendar years (which is less than 1.5 years of AB’s) you are doing a couple of things wrong:
1) You can’t do a straight average of the 3 years…. he’s hit .306, .314 and .336 (in this partial year)… you need to weight it by AB’s (which would give the .336 a lot less weight as it is less than 1/2 the size of the other 2 years)
2) His road BABIP this year is .374, so you are not only taking a partial year and treating it as a full year of data, but you are also using a # that is probably flukish (in part due to it being a small sample size)
Or to put it in a slightly different perspective….His highest road average prior to this year? .314 You are treating 140 road AB’s this year as significant and using it to determine his new baseline of .320…and with an outlier BABIP helping to drive that figure?
Ot to put it in an even different perspective… if just 3 of his hits on the road this year were outs (which given his .374 BABIP is probably not much of a stretch) his road average would be .314 instead of .336. If 4 of his hits are outs, his road average is suddenly right at his career average on the road.
You are basically taking 155 PA’s and using it to determine a new baseline and ignoring the pitfalls of doing that.
Look, we are voting for the 2011 all star game, not auditioning for GM and deciding whether to sign miggy or gonzo.
The important factors in deciding who gets the nod should be the basic statistics and I’ll be honest, fan appeal (I don’t believe the all star game should count). Gonzo is destroying the AL based on basic things like batting average and rbis and hits. He has fan appeal in his new town, and throughout most of baseball, and he just has a better defensive reputation than Cabrera.
You can talk about their career babip splits and ther minor difference in their UZRs but come on isn’t the guy who is turning out the most blatantly (blatantly to the casual fans, or 98% of voters) productive season the guy who deserves an all star start? No one can remove the hype of a new superstar slugger from the equation of what Gonzalez is doing from the heads of 98% of baseball fans, so why try? Adrian only has one inaugural season in Boston and it’s been pretty damn exciting so far, and I am hard pressed to find the same excitement in Miguel Cabrera’s first half. Not that it has been bad, by any means, but when you stat gurus get down to WAR decimals and uzr, the rest of the voters are going with whoever is making headlines.
Ellsbury should be a starting OF and after Bautista, Grandy and him, its not really close.
Denard Span? Alex Gordon?
c’mon thats a joke.
KC can get a rep with Crow for that final bullpen spot..
Or you can figure out what to do with Minnesotas guy.
But you cant leave off Ellsbury
Good list, though I feel that the people should use the stats for the last half of the previous year plus those for the beginnings of this year to determine their all-star picks – otherwise you end up basing the all-star votes on small samples, especially early in the voting. (Unfortunately that rules out rookies unless they’ve been extremely good.)
Anyway, I’d make a few small mods because of that.
Matt Wieters over J. P. Arencibia? Really? Come on.
Has nobody noticed JJ Hardy? He’s worth consideration. And Wieters, defensively, is much better than Arencibia.
What about Jose Valverde?
You know if the game “counts” than shouldn’t they just scrap the whole one representative from each team act? I mean after all the results matter you really don’t want to be a player you have no intention of using.
Further, should who “deserves” the AS selection really matter? Shouldn’t the game be voted on based on anticipated final production at each position since it counts? For instance, Longoria is a top 3b option but will not make the AS game because he hasn’t played much. But if the AL wants to win they want the player they know to be the best at that position irregardless of whether they deserve to go.
I’ll predict right now that Span does not make it and Mauer (if he accepts) is the second-half catcher (after all, you do want to win the game). The other Twin that could be a rep is Liriano as a nod for the no-hitter.
If Span and Liriano aren’t selected and Mauer won’t go, then the Twins rep might as well be a bat or a glove, because those would have some chance of making it on the field.
James Shields must make it. Drop Ogando who only has a half season of success.
obviously most of us would not agree with a less Yankee-centric lineup condsidering the way people the voting, idiot.
The fact that a player is leading the vote does not mean that most voters have voted for that player. There are more than 2 options for each position. Consider:
Player A = 8 votes
Player B = 6 votes
Player C = 6 votes
In this scenario, Player A wins with 40% (8/20) of the popular vote. However, 60% of the voters preferred a different player (30% preferred B, and 30% preferred C).
Thus, most people probably would prefer a less-Yankeecentric AllStar game, despite the fact that many Yankees are leading the popular vote. This is true unless the Yankees players are out polling the rest of the players combined. Not likely!
I say this as a (non-idiot) Yankee fan.
I don’t like Arod at third. Too much of his value at this point is based on UZR, and hes a guy who hasn’t been particularly good defensively the last year.
Essentially, I think most of his value is a mirage.
Alex Rodriguez .288/.364/.515. I know by A-rod standards this isn’t a great year. But it’s still good enough for him to be the best offensive 3B in the AL. Maybe you just don’t like Arod at third because you don’t like A-rod. Not many people do. But it doesn’t make him less deserving.
Phil Humber? 🙂
looks like those poor old Jays are getting unfairly looked past, as usual. Arencibia, Lind, and Romero all deserve at least a mention here.
Catchers:
1) A.Avila: 216pa, 9hr, 36rbi, .900ops, .387woba
2) R.Martin: 195pa, 9hr, 24rbi, .767ops, .352woba
3) J.ARENCIBIA: 205pa, 10hr, 34rbi, .769ops, .333woba
4) M.Wieters: 217pa, 6hr, 30rbi, .759ops, .331woba
5) C.Santana: 257pa, 7hr, 26rbi, .728ops, .328woba
First Basemen:
1) M.Cabrera: 290pa, 13hr, 46rbi, 1.005ops, .423woba
2) A.Gonzalez: 297pa, 13hr, 60rbi, .984ops, .423woba
3) A.LIND: 182pa, 12hr, 39rbi, .969ops, .413woba
4) P.Konerko: 282pa, 16hr, 52rbi, .953ops, .409woba
5) M.Texeira: 285pa, 19hr, 49rbi, .902ops, .391woba
Starting Pitchers (in order of xFIP, minimum 6.0ip/gs):
1) D.Price: 97.1ip, 6.95ip/gs, 3.51era, 2.92fip, 2.94xfip
2) J.Shields: 103.2ip, 7.40ip/gs, 2.60era, 3.44fip, 2.98xfip
3) D.Haren: 98.1ip, 7.02ip/gs, 2.56era, 2.52fip, 3.00xfip
4) J.Verlander: 111.2ip, 7.45ip/gs, 2.66era, 2.99fip, 3.03xfip
5) F.Hernandez: 106.1ip, 7.09ip/gs, 3.30era, 2.92fip, 3.07xfip
6) J.Weaver: 109.3ip, 7.29ip/gs, 2.06era, 2.54fip, 3.40xfip
7) R.ROMERO: 87.2ip, 6.74ip/gs, 3.18era, 3.86fip, 3.43xfip
8) M.Pineda: 82.2ip, 6.36ip/gs, 2.72era, 3.07fip, 3.45xfip
9) S.Baker: 83.2ip, 6.44ip/gs, 3.55era, 3.93fip, 3.49xfip
10) J.Lester: 89.1ip, 6.38ip/gs, 3.73era, 4.02fip, 3.49xfip
11) C.Sabathia: 107.0ip, 7.13ip/gs, 3.28era, 2.86fip, 3.50xfip