The Fascinating Free Agency of Melky Cabrera

Melky Cabrera’s season ended on Friday with a broken finger. Normally, “team headed for 22nd straight year out of the playoffs loses second-best outfielder for the final three weeks” isn’t much of a story, but this situation is a little different. Cabrera is about to be a free agent in what looks to be a terrible market for offense, is only entering his age-30 season in 2015, and has had three pretty good seasons in the last four years. He’s been essentially the same hitter as Anthony Rendon has this year. That’s a pretty good resume to take into free agency, and understandably, talk is already focusing on where he’ll be playing next season.

Also understandably, that discussion has mostly centered around the considerable baggage that Cabrera brings with him, notably his 2012 PED suspension and the associated “let’s build a fake website” weirdness that came with it. Buster Olney devoted a column to it earlier this week, interviewing at least one player who complained that the system is set up in such a way that a rule-breaker can still find himself collecting a huge free agent payday. That player suggested that two-time offenders be restricted to one-year contracts in the future, which seems to me to be a thing that will never, ever happen.

Whether the feelings of that unnamed player are correct or not — you can probably guess my feelings on the subject — is kind of beside the point, because the fact is that Cabrera will go into free agency without any official restrictions, just unofficial reservations. While there’s some real reasons to question about him going forward, he’s also about to enter a market that is almost totally devoid of outfield offensive talent. Cabrera’s going to get paid, and it’s going to make a lot of people unhappy.

* * *

Let’s start with the market. I made a custom leaderboard of available free agent outfielders this coming winter, and it’s… not pretty. This doesn’t include potential trade targets like B.J. UptonAndre Ethier or Carl Crawford, but most of those guys are salary dumps of limited value anyway, and any potential Giancarlo Stanton deal takes place on an entirely different planet. I also made some assumptions on options, figuring that Ryan Ludwick would be be bought out, but that Denard SpanBen ZobristAlex Rios and Nick Markakis wouldn’t be. (I went back and forth on Markakis, because $17.5 million seems awfully high for him, so feel free to mentally include him if you like.)

Name Age PA AVG OBP SLG HR wOBA wRC+ Off Def WAR
Nelson Cruz 33 601 0.264 0.333 0.532 39 0.371 137 22.3 -9.4 3.5
Melky Cabrera 29 621 0.301 0.351 0.458 16 0.354 124 15.2 -11.3 2.6
Emilio Bonifacio 29 378 0.270 0.309 0.352 2 0.293 83 -3.9 7.7 1.6
Norichika Aoki 32 468 0.265 0.331 0.334 1 0.302 90 -2.3 0.1 1.4
Michael Cuddyer 35 146 0.328 0.377 0.560 7 0.406 145 8.1 -1.5 1.2
Michael Morse 32 480 0.280 0.338 0.477 16 0.357 134 13.2 -17.5 1.1
Josh Willingham 35 339 0.220 0.348 0.415 14 0.339 116 7 -7.5 1.1
Colby Rasmus 27 367 0.228 0.289 0.456 18 0.326 105 2.9 -8.3 0.7
Delmon Young 28 230 0.290 0.330 0.438 7 0.340 115 4.2 -6.7 0.5
Chris Denorfia 33 337 0.235 0.287 0.318 2 0.272 74 -8.9 1.1 0.3
Torii Hunter 38 507 0.282 0.318 0.444 15 0.334 111 6 -21.3 0.1
Jonny Gomes 33 295 0.236 0.329 0.336 6 0.301 88 -3.4 -5.6 0.1
Ichiro Suzuki 40 327 0.283 0.323 0.326 1 0.291 81 -4.8 -4.8 0.1
Grady Sizemore 31 350 0.248 0.311 0.379 5 0.308 92 -2.4 -8.2 0
Tyler Colvin 28 149 0.223 0.268 0.381 2 0.285 85 -2.4 -1.8 0
Scott Hairston 34 78 0.217 0.256 0.319 1 0.252 56 -3.9 -2.8 -0.5
Chris Young 30 288 0.204 0.282 0.345 8 0.280 80 -5.3 -8.7 -0.6
Ryan Ludwick 35 364 0.248 0.308 0.383 8 0.307 92 -6.8 -10.3 -0.7
Reed Johnson 37 169 0.217 0.251 0.318 2 0.254 56 -8.2 -3.5 -0.7
Tony Gwynn 31 122 0.158 0.274 0.198 0 0.226 38 -9.3 -2.8 -0.9
Raul Ibanez 42 273 0.169 0.260 0.289 5 0.252 60 -14.9 -2.7 -1

So what do you have there? You have Cruz, who has had a fantastic season but is four years older than Cabrera, is probably a DH going forward, and who comes with many of the same PED questions that Cabrera does. (Not that Cabrera is a great outfielder either, but he’s younger and at least acceptable.) You have Cuddyer, who has hit well, but has missed most of the season due to injury, will be 36, and wasn’t traded by Colorado because they want to keep him. Morse has power and little else. Rasmus is young and talented, but frustratingly inconsistent, and hasn’t even been playing full-time in Toronto lately. Everyone else here is either a bench player at best or an aging star well past their prime.

There’s just not a lot out there for teams looking to upgrade in the outfield, and that’s going to make this an extreme player’s market. Just off the top of my head, the Mets have a big hole in left. So do the Phillies, and the Reds. The up-and-coming White Sox could use a bat to go along with Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton. Maybe the Astros decide it’s time to start buying some players, and don’t think Robbie Grossman and Marc Krauss are enough in left. The Padres are in desperate need of offense. You could do the same exercise for a half-dozen other teams, and don’t count out the Blue Jays themselves, where Cabrera has said he’d be happy to remain, lest they have Kevin Pillar and Anthony Gose making up a 2015 outfield next to Jose Bautista.

The point is, Cabrera is likely to be the only available free agent outfielder who hasn’t yet played his age-30 season who is to be considered an every day player, aside from whatever Rasmus is. (Sorry, Tyler Colvin.) That alone is going to make him considerably desirable.

So what did last year’s outfield market yield? 12 outfielders signed a free agent deal of at least two years, though as you can see, most aren’t really a great comparison for Cabrera:

Name 2014 Age 2013 wRC+ 2013 WAR Contract
Shin-Soo Choo 31 151 5.2 7/$130m
Jacoby Ellsbury 30 113 5.8 7/$153m
Curtis Granderson 33 95 1.4 4/$60m
Carlos Beltran 37 131 1.9 3/$45m
Nate McLouth 32 100 2.6 2/$10.75m
Garrett Jones 33 146 -0.2 2/$7.75m
Skip Schumaker 34 92 -1.1 2/$5m
David Murphy 32 73 0.4 2/$12m
Rajai Davis 33 87 1.2 2/$10m
Marlon Byrd 36 137 4.1 2/$16m
David DeJesus 34 103 2.1 2/$10.5m

There’s two superstars here who got huge deals, two guys in their late 30s, and several role players who got two years for between $2.5 million and $8 million per. There’s only two who fall into the “solid starter” range that Cabrera would be in, and one of them — Byrd — is so much older that it’s hard to compare the two on that basis. Granderson, however, is interesting: He’s three-and-a-half years older, had the qualifying offer on him, was coming off a season ruined by hand injuries, and had put up one hitting season (2011) in the previous five better than what Cabrera has done this year. He’s not a PED guy, of course, but he still came away with four years and $60 million. It seems pretty clear that on the basis of what the market paid for outfielders last year, where older bit players received two years, Cabrera is easily in line for three or four years. But for how much?

Cabrera is currently playing out a two-year, $16 million contract he signed with the Blue Jays fresh off his 2012 drug suspension, the first year of which was a terrible disappointment. Of course, as I outlined here in April, the convenient narrative that goes along with that is that he “got clean” after the bust, and immediately fell apart. What those stories generally fail to mention is that he playing all season with a tumor on his spine that hindered his movement; with the tumor removed, his 2014 offense has been a whole lot more in line with his 2011 (Kansas City) and 2012 (San Francisco) seasons.

So far, so good for Cabrera, but we haven’t yet made it to the two drags on his potential free agency: the qualifying offer, and the stigma of his PED association.

Let’s start with the second part first, and note that as much as players and fans may despise known PED cheats, teams simply haven’t seen it the same way. Yes, Cruz was forced to sign for only one year and $8 million, but as we noted here several times last winter, there were many reasons to be terrified of signing him; it’s impossible to say anyone saw this kind of season coming. It didn’t stop Jhonny Peralta from getting four years and $53 million from St. Louis; it didn’t stop Byrd from getting two years and $16 million from the Phillies despite his advanced age and completely lost 2012. There may be a few teams who refuse to add a PED guy, and there may be others who think twice about it, but there aren’t nearly as many of those clubs as there are teams who badly want to add offense. His reputation probably hurts him a little; it won’t kill his free agency.

The qualifying offer, expected to be about $15 million this winter, and which Toronto would be crazy not to offer, could be a bigger problem. We all know what it did to Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew, and it’s a big part of what hurt Cruz. It’ll hurt Cabrera too, though not so much if one of the teams interested in him happens to have a protected draft pick. Wouldn’t you know it, if you look at the standings, most of the teams I named above currently have a protected pick, and the Reds & Mets may yet sneak their way in there. The potential that Cabrera can market his services to one of those teams, much like Granderson did with the Mets, would be a huge boost to his prospects.

So what are we left with? Olney suggested the 3/$39 million that Shane Victorino got, coming off a down 2012. The Toronto Star polled agents last month and came away with “a contract somewhere in the neighbourhood of three years and between $36 million and $45 million, or roughly $12 to $15 million per season.” The Score, last month, also said 3/$39 million. That’s all pretty consistent, and maybe it’s right.

Then again, when you look at what Granderson got, and how much money is in baseball right now, and how awful the outfielder market looks to be, and how desperate everyone is to get some offense into their lineup, it’s not hard to see someone pushing to a fourth year. (One scout, not that scouts offer contracts, told Jeff Blair of Sportsnet.ca that “he thought his team would do a four-year deal for Cabrera,” referencing Peralta’s deal.) That sounds like a lot, and with the qualifying offer — which Peralta, a good fielder at a premium position, did not have — it’s possibly not realistic.

Then again, Cabrera has, after all, set a three-win or more pace in each of the last three years in which he didn’t have a tumor on his spine, and that’s a valuable thing. If you believe the valuation that says a win is approximately $6 million in the market, maybe he’ll even be undervalued, though the PED bust and qualifying offer should bump that back to the estimates above. Either way, this is less about what Cabrera “should” get and more about what he actually might. For a lot of people, that’s going to be a very scary thought.

We hoped you liked reading The Fascinating Free Agency of Melky Cabrera by Mike Petriello!

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Mike Petriello used to write here, and now he does not. Find him at @mike_petriello or MLB.com.

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MrKnowNothing
Guest
MrKnowNothing

My guy says 4/$50ish.

A 3 win player who might put up a 5 if things click and who is on the right side of 30 in a market where basically NO ONE who is good is a free agent before 30 makes him unique. Outside of the Rays, I think every team in the AL East will consider him. And the tigers and rangers are always out there to make that “one last move” for a title.

LaLoosh
Guest

welp, the Rangers aren’t in spitting distance of a title at this point so I wouldn’t put them in the discussion tho they will have a protected pick.

But yeah could easily see half or more of the protected pick teams on him plus a few teams picking at the back of the 1st rd like Detroit as mentioned or the Giants. This illustrates the problem with the draft compensation system – the penalty differs depending on where you pick in the 1st round. Teams that fall just out of the bottom 10 pay the biggest price to sign one of these FAs who turn down a QO, while the best teams who pick at the end of the 1st round suffer far less by having to give up the 29th or 30th pick.

Aaron (UK)
Member
Aaron (UK)

Yes, using the next CBA to extend protected picks to all non-postseason teams might be fairer (and help prevent tanking). That #10/#11 bubble is huge if you are planning a major move.

Plucky
Guest
Plucky

Rangers record is awful this year but that’s mostly because they have had the worst injury luck of any team in a decade. Around intelligent baseball sites there’s been about 1 article a week on this topic, so you can probably consider “Rangers are a good team that’s hurt” to be conventional wisdom. Even if you disagree with that consenssus, with near certainly the Rangers will consider themselves contenders this offseason.

james
Guest
james

It is unrealistic to have not seen the Prince injury coming. I have seen at least 20 break downs of how similar players break down at 29/30, so that is more a reality of the decline than anything. I can agree with profar and a few more, that team is better than their record, but if things clicked would have been a wild card at best

Jonathan
Guest
Jonathan

The Red Sox have like 12 outfielders, I don’t imagine they’ll consider him either. Plus, I seem to recall Girardi and Melky not getting along. Even still, with A-Rod coming back next year and probably needing DH time, I’d expect Beltran to get some extra RF time next year, meaning they won’t likely want to go to extreme lengths to sign Melky back.

Edgardo
Guest
Edgardo

Don’t be mean and remind Jeterless, non-contending Yankee fans of ARod coming back.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B

They’re technically “contending”, in the sense that all teams that aren’t like 60-90 are still in the playoff hunt because of the second wild card. If that cheers ’em up any.

King Buzzo's Fro
Guest
King Buzzo's Fro

Don’t do it for yank fans, DO IT FOR EVERYONE ELSE!

RichW
Member
RichW

Is that an upgrade?

Rickey Henderson Sox
Guest
Rickey Henderson Sox

I had originally thought Nava might me a non-tender candidate, but, with the dreck available in free agency, Nava might be a semi-attractive trade target.