The First Overall by Actual Record

Prior to the 2005 version, the Major League draft used to alternate picks between the American and National Leagues like they also used to do with home field advantage in the World Series before Bud Selig had to dip his meddlesome fingers in. There are some well-known times when the first overall pick did not go to the team with the worst record in the previous season.

The most recent was when the Padres got to select ahead of the Tigers in 2004 despite the 2003 Tigers having happened. Luckily for the Tigers, the Padres picked Matt Bush and the Tigers landed Justin Verlander. I don’t think they’re crying foul over that missed opportunity.

However, before that case was 2001 when the Minnesota Twins, despite having the fourth worst winning percentage in 2000, finished worst in the American League and it was the AL’s turn to go first. So the Twins had first dibs on the Mark Prior draft class. They still passed, electing to go with Joe Mauer. The Cubs, who should have picked first, probably would have gone with Prior, but who knows what happens with the Twins. Would Mauer have fallen to four? And what about the poor Pirates, who were bumped back from fifth – where the Rangers took Mark Teixeira – to eighth, where they took John Van Benschoten?

It’s easy to get dragged down the speculation hole of retroactive draft histories, so I want to pull back and quickly run down only the cases of the first overall pick. Here are the times since the mid-1960s that the first pick went to some team other than the one with the lowest winning percentage (using the current tiebreaker rule) during the previous season.

Draft	1st Pick	Worst Team	Drafted at 1	Drafted at 2
2004	Padres	Tigers	Matt Bush	Justin Verlander
2001	Twins	Cubs	Joe Mauer	Mark Prior
2000	Marlins	Twins	Adrian Gonzalez	Adam Johnson
1999	Rays	Marlins	Josh Hamilton	Josh Beckett
1998	Phillies	Athletics	Pat Burrell	Mark Mulder
1996	Pirates	Twins	Kris Benson	Travis Lee
1995	Angels	Padres	Darin Erstad	Ben Davis
1993	Mariners	Dodgers	Alex Rodriguez	Darren Dreifort
1992	Astros	Indians	Phil Nevin	Paul Shuey
1991	Yankees	Braves	Brien Taylor	Mike Kelly
1990	Braves	Tigers	Chipper Jones	Tony Clark
1988	Padres	Indians	Andy Benes	Mark Lewis
1987	Mariners	Pirates	Ken Griffey Jr.	Mark Merchant
1985	Brewers	Giants	B.J. Surhoff	Will Clark
1984	Mets	Mariners	Shawn Abner	Bill Swift
1982	Cubs	Blue Jays	Shawon Dunston	Augie Schmidt
1980	Mets	Blue Jays	Darryl Strawberry	Garry Harris
1978	Braves	Blue Jays	Bob Horner	Lloyd Moseby
1977	White Sox	Expos	Harold Baines	Bill Gullickson
1976	Astros	Tigers	Floyd Bannister	Pat Underwood
1975	Angels	Padres	Danny Goodwin	Mike Lentz
1974	Padres	Rangers	Bill Almon	Tommy Boggs
1972	Padres	Indians	Dave Roberts	Rick Manning

The Twins benefitted from the system in 2001, but the year prior were harmed by it when they lost a deserved shot at drafting Adrian Gonzalez. Instead the Marlins grabbed him before eventually sending him on an odyssey to Texas, San Diego and now Boston.

The pair of 1977 expansion clubs, the Blue Jays and the Mariners, both have had more than their full share of losing or gaining draft position. Their fates were quite divergent though. While the Blue Jays were denied an opportunity at Bob Horner, Darryl Strawberry and Shawon Dunston (all eventually good players), the Mariners jumped ahead in the Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. drafts and saw the Mets take Shawn Abner ahead of them in 1984, which was no big loss.

There is never one universal draft board and different teams, in different positions would have made different decisions. In some cases, switching the teams drafting one and two would not have changed their picks, but I think it’s fun to look at without getting too carried away. Is there anything more arbitrary than the requirement to alternate leagues in the draft that potentially swung the fortunes of two franchises more than the Mariners nabbing Griffey ahead of the Pirates?