The First Week of College Baseball by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

On multiple occasions last year, the author published a statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.

What follows represents the first such report for the 2016 college campaign, which began last Friday.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The three conferences I’ve chosen represent those most typically responsible for producing good major-league players.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current through Tuesday’s games.

ACC
Top Batter
Corey Ray, OF, Louisville (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Corey Ray, OF, Louisville (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
John Sansone, 3B, Florida St. (Sr)

Top Pitcher
Drew Harrington, LHP, Lousville (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Drew Harrington, LHP, Lousville (Jr)

Top Starter
Drew Harrington, LHP, Lousville (Jr)

Leaderboards

 

Notes
It’s not surprising to find a number of Louisville batters near the top of the ACC leaderboards at the moment: the Cardinals scored 57 runs over their first four games, recording seven homers and a collective 32:10 walk-to-strikeout ratio as an offense. That some of their success is a product of a pair of weak opponents is a distinct possibility. Regardless of opponent, junior outfielder Corey Ray — who sits atop the batting leaderboard currently — still projects as a first-round selection in the 2016 draft. Prospect writer Jesse Burkhart examined Ray’s offensive developments in some depth earlier today.

***Pac-12
Top Batter
A.J. Balta, OF, Oregon (R-So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
A.J. Balta, OF, Oregon (R-So)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Colby Woodmansee, SS, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Eder Erives, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Eder Erives, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Starter
JC Cloney, LHP, Arizona (Jr)

Leaderboards

 

Notes
While he hasn’t been summarily ignored — appearing, for example, on the preseason watch list for the Golden Spikes award — Arizona State’s Colby Woodmansee also isn’t generally regarded as a first-round talent either. The learned editors of D1 Baseball, for example, omit him from their list of the top-30 college prospects. That having been acknowledged, one also finds that Woodmansee is the only batter among the Pac-12’s leaders through the first week also to play shortstop, that most premium of defensive positions. Whatever his limitations, he does appear to offer value on both offense and defense.

***SEC
Top Batter
Tristan Pompey, OF, Kentucky (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
JaVon Shelby, 3B, Kentucky (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
JaVon Shelby, 3B, Kentucky (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia (Jr)

Top Starter
Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia (Jr)

Leaderboards

 

Notes
Georgia junior right-hander Robert Tyler’s performance in his season debut matched the stuff he’s exhibited as a collegiate player. Last Friday, Tyler recorded a 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against just 17 batters over 5.0 innings versus Georgia Southern (box). Tyler appeared within the top-10 players on Kiley McDaniel’s ridiculously early 2016 draft rankings last spring — on the strength, in no small part, of mid-90s velocity. Tyler sat around 94 mph during that debut — and exhibited, in a way he hadn’t previously, the ability to convert that arm speed into results.