The First Week of College Baseball by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

by
February 26, 2016

On multiple occasions last year, the author published a statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.

What follows represents the first such report for the 2016 college campaign, which began last Friday.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The three conferences I’ve chosen represent those most typically responsible for producing good major-league players.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current through Tuesday’s games.

ACC
Top Batter
Corey Ray, OF, Louisville (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Corey Ray, OF, Louisville (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
John Sansone, 3B, Florida St. (Sr)

Top Pitcher
Drew Harrington, LHP, Lousville (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Drew Harrington, LHP, Lousville (Jr)

Top Starter
Drew Harrington, LHP, Lousville (Jr)

Leaderboards

Top Ten Batters of the ACC
Name School Yr Pos PA K% ISO BABIP xK% xISO xBABIP MPS+
Corey Ray Louisville Jr OF 14 7.1% .778 .571 15.5% .204 .369 121
John Sansone Florida St. Sr 3B 15 0.0% .583 .500 14.0% .192 .368 118
Will Craig Wake Forest Jr 3B 12 16.7% .700 .500 17.4% .193 .368 114
Colby Fitch Louisville So C 6 0.0% 1.000 .500 15.9% .186 .367 113
Gage West Florida St. Jr OF 9 11.1% .714 .800 16.7% .185 .370 113
Ron Sherman Pitt Sr 3B 20 30.0% .563 .500 20.6% .200 .369 112
Trevor Craport Georgia Tech So 3B 11 0.0% .400 .556 14.8% .173 .368 110
Brendan McKay Louisville So DH 12 0.0% .429 .167 14.6% .176 .364 110
Logan Hoggarth Boston College Sr OF 9 0.0% .500 .400 15.2% .175 .367 110
Logan Taylor Louisville Jr OF 12 0.0% .364 .364 14.6% .171 .366 109

 

Top Ten Pitchers of the ACC
Name School Yr Pos IP TBF K% BB% xK% xBB% MPS-
Drew Harrington Lousville Jr LHP 6.0 21 42.9% 0.0% 30.6% 8.3% 88
Hansen Butler N. Carolina So RHP 3.1 10 60.0% 0.0% 31.0% 8.8% 88
Alex Eubanks Clemson R-Fr RHP 3.2 14 50.0% 0.0% 30.7% 8.6% 88
Daniel Lynch Virginia Fr LHP 5.0 20 45.0% 10.0% 30.9% 9.4% 90
Jack Roberts Virginia R-So RHP 2.0 7 71.4% 14.3% 30.9% 9.6% 90
Zac Gallen N. Carolina Jr RHP 7.2 28 39.3% 7.1% 30.4% 9.0% 90
Scott Tully Notre Dame Jr LHP 2.1 8 62.5% 12.5% 30.5% 9.5% 91
Anthony Kidston Lousville Sr RHP 2.0 8 62.5% 12.5% 30.5% 9.5% 91
Donnie Sellers Wake Forest So RHP 2.0 6 66.7% 0.0% 30.0% 9.0% 91
J.B. Bukauskas N. Carolina So RHP 4.2 20 45.0% 15.0% 30.9% 9.9% 91

Notes
It’s not surprising to find a number of Louisville batters near the top of the ACC leaderboards at the moment: the Cardinals scored 57 runs over their first four games, recording seven homers and a collective 32:10 walk-to-strikeout ratio as an offense. That some of their success is a product of a pair of weak opponents is a distinct possibility. Regardless of opponent, junior outfielder Corey Ray — who sits atop the batting leaderboard currently — still projects as a first-round selection in the 2016 draft. Prospect writer Jesse Burkhart examined Ray’s offensive developments in some depth earlier today.

***
Pac-12
Top Batter
A.J. Balta, OF, Oregon (R-So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
A.J. Balta, OF, Oregon (R-So)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Colby Woodmansee, SS, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Eder Erives, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Eder Erives, RHP, Arizona St. (Jr)

Top Starter
JC Cloney, LHP, Arizona (Jr)

Leaderboards

Top Ten Batters of the Pac-12
Name School Yr Pos PA K% ISO BABIP xK% xISO xBABIP MPS+
A.J. Balta Oregon R-So OF 12 0.0% .800 .125 14.7% .159 .300 120
Colby Woodmansee Arizona St. Jr SS 21 9.5% .450 .444 15.6% .151 .304 118
Logan Ice Oregon St. Jr C 15 0.0% .357 .308 14.1% .134 .302 112
Cadyn Grenier Oregon St. Fr 3B 17 5.9% .273 .500 15.1% .129 .304 110
Brenden Farney California R-Sr 1B 17 11.8% .308 .545 16.4% .132 .305 110
Stefan Van Horn Wash St. R-So C 11 27.3% .667 .000 19.2% .147 .298 109
Jack Meggs Washington Jr OF 15 13.3% .333 .556 16.8% .132 .305 109
Andrew Snow Arizona St. So 2B 20 5.0% .176 .563 14.5% .121 .306 109
Tim Susnara Oregon So C 12 16.7% .455 .250 17.5% .137 .301 108
Josh Cushing Washington Jr 3B 11 18.2% .400 .714 17.7% .132 .306 108

 

Top Ten Pitchers of the Pac-12
Name School Yr Pos IP TBF K% BB% xK% xBB% MPS-
Eder Erives Arizona St. Jr RHP 5.1 20 45.0% 0.0% 25.9% 8.3% 83
Dylan Drachler Utah Jr LHP 4.0 18 50.0% 11.1% 26.5% 9.4% 85
JC Cloney Arizona Jr LHP 7.0 24 37.5% 0.0% 24.8% 8.1% 86
Erik Martinez California So RHP 3.0 12 58.3% 16.7% 26.0% 9.7% 87
Cole Irvin Oregon R-Jr LHP 7.0 26 34.6% 0.0% 24.3% 8.0% 87
Kyle Davis USC Sr RHP 8.0 29 34.5% 3.4% 24.6% 8.4% 87
Daulton Jefferies California Jr RHP 6.0 26 34.6% 7.7% 24.3% 9.0% 89
Stephen Nogosek Oregon Jr RHP 2.1 8 50.0% 0.0% 23.5% 8.8% 91
Colton Hock Stanford So RHP 3.0 9 44.4% 0.0% 23.2% 8.8% 92
Jeff Paschke USC Jr RHP 3.0 10 40.0% 0.0% 22.9% 8.7% 92

Notes
While he hasn’t been summarily ignored — appearing, for example, on the preseason watch list for the Golden Spikes award — Arizona State’s Colby Woodmansee also isn’t generally regarded as a first-round talent either. The learned editors of D1 Baseball, for example, omit him from their list of the top-30 college prospects. That having been acknowledged, one also finds that Woodmansee is the only batter among the Pac-12’s leaders through the first week also to play shortstop, that most premium of defensive positions. Whatever his limitations, he does appear to offer value on both offense and defense.

***
SEC
Top Batter
Tristan Pompey, OF, Kentucky (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
JaVon Shelby, 3B, Kentucky (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
JaVon Shelby, 3B, Kentucky (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia (Jr)

Top Starter
Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia (Jr)

Leaderboards

Top Ten Batters of the SEC
Name School Yr Pos PA K% ISO BABIP xK% xISO xBABIP MPS+
Tristan Pompey Kentucky Fr OF 11 9.1% 1.200 .333 13.4% .239 .337 124
JaVon Shelby Kentucky Jr 3B 14 0.0% .833 .600 11.5% .227 .340 123
Jeren Kendall Vanderbilt So OF 19 15.8% .625 .800 14.6% .222 .344 119
Jack Kruger Mississippi St. Jr DH 20 10.0% .500 .615 13.2% .211 .342 116
Kyle Smith Vanderbilt Sr 1B 15 13.3% .667 .400 14.1% .217 .337 115
Hunter Melton Texas A&M Sr 1B 19 5.3% .438 .385 12.1% .204 .337 113
J.B. Moss Texas A&M Sr OF 16 0.0% .417 .538 11.2% .198 .339 113
Niko Buentello Auburn Jr 1B 14 7.1% .583 .222 12.9% .209 .335 113
JJ Schwarz Florida So C/DH 16 6.3% .500 .222 12.6% .205 .335 112
Deacon Liput Florida Fr 2B 14 0.0% .417 .583 11.5% .196 .340 112

 

Top Ten Pitchers of the SEC
Name School Yr Pos IP TBF K% BB% xK% xBB% MPS-
Robert Tyler Georgia Jr RHP 5.0 17 76.5% 5.9% 35.2% 9.2% 73
Adam Hill S. Carolina Fr RHP 6.0 20 55.0% 0.0% 31.8% 8.6% 80
Josh Reagan S. Carolina Jr LHP 2.2 8 62.5% 0.0% 29.0% 9.2% 89
Thomas Burrows Alabama Jr LHP 3.0 9 55.6% 0.0% 28.7% 9.1% 90
Jace Vines Texas A&M So RHP 7.0 25 36.0% 4.0% 28.0% 8.9% 91
Colton Provey S. Carolina Jr RHP 3.1 13 46.2% 7.7% 28.5% 9.5% 91
Kirby Snead Florida Jr LHP 4.0 15 40.0% 0.0% 27.8% 8.8% 91
Tyler Johnson S. Carolina So RHP 2.0 7 57.1% 0.0% 28.1% 9.2% 91
Andrew Vinson Texas A&M Sr RHP 2.0 7 57.1% 0.0% 28.1% 9.2% 91
James Teague Arkansas Jr RHP 1.0 4 75.0% 0.0% 27.9% 9.4% 92

Notes
Georgia junior right-hander Robert Tyler’s performance in his season debut matched the stuff he’s exhibited as a collegiate player. Last Friday, Tyler recorded a 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against just 17 batters over 5.0 innings versus Georgia Southern (box). Tyler appeared within the top-10 players on Kiley McDaniel’s ridiculously early 2016 draft rankings last spring — on the strength, in no small part, of mid-90s velocity. Tyler sat around 94 mph during that debut — and exhibited, in a way he hadn’t previously, the ability to convert that arm speed into results.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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paulkrugman
8 years ago

Logan Ice

I move we bypass the voting and move Mr. Ice directly into the All-Time Name Hall of Fame.

3