The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels, and (most importantly) FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel* and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing within Longenhagen and McDaniel’s most recent update — and the updates published by Jeffrey Paternostro of Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels at Minor League Ball — have also been excluded from consideration.

*Note: I’ve excluded Baseball America’s list this year not due to any complaints with their coverage, but simply because said list is now behind a paywall.

For those interested in learning how Fringe Five players have fared at the major-league level, this somewhat recent post offers that kind of information. The short answer: better than a reasonable person would have have expected. In the final analysis, though, the basic idea here is to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
Gonsolin debuted among the Five last week following a series of increasingly impressive starts that culminated in an 11-strikeout effort against just 20 batters on July 10th. While he failed to overwhelm his opponents so decisively in his lone appearance over the past week, his July 16th start was notable for another reason — namely, that it occurred against the Arkansas Travelers of the Texas League and represented the right-hander’s debut at Double-A.

The former ninth-round pick was still quite strong, recording an 8:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 26 batters over 6.0 innings (box). One account indicates that Gonsolin touched 98 mph, which is roughly in line with previous reports.

Gonsolin’s slider is naturally effective against same-handed batters, but he appeared to have some strategies for dealing with lefties, as well.

Here, for example, is a back-foot breaking pitch at which Beau Amaral offered hesitantly:

And a changeup that, despite suboptimal location, nevertheless elicited a swing and miss from Logan Taylor:

Josh James, RHP, Houston (Profile)
James began the season by producing basically the best strikeout- and walk-rate differential at Double-A and has continued by producing the actual best strikeout- and walk-rate differential among Triple-A pitchers. In his most recent appearance, facing Giants affiliate Sacramento, he recorded a 12:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 24 batters over 6.0 innings (box).

Here’s a fastball from that recent start, quoted at 97 mph by the Fresno broadcast:

And actually what appears to be a pretty good changeup, which pitch is not James’ most celebrated:

Danny Mendick, SS, Chicago AL (Profile)
After finishing eighth on last year’s iteration of the haphazardly calculated Scoreboard, Mendick has now appeared twice among the Five within the last month. Over the past week, he’s been brilliant offensively, posting walk and strikeout rates of 17.9% and 14.3%, respectively, plus a .261 isolated-power figure and 7.1 speed score (informed by a 3-for-3 stolen-base record). To get a sense of what the typically produces in terms of overall value, consider the major-league seasons recorded by hitters with similar indicators since 2000 (note that no such hitters also recorded a speed score above 5.0 in the relevant campaign):

Danny Mendick’s Week vs. Seasons Since 2000
Name Team Season PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Spd WAR
David Ortiz Red Sox 2007 667 16.6% 15.4% .290 175 3.0 6.3
Lance Berkman Astros 2004 687 18.5% 14.7% .250 161 3.6 6.2
Jose Bautista Blue Jays 2015 666 16.5% 15.9% .285 148 4.5 5.2
Nick Johnson Nationals 2006 628 17.5% 15.8% .230 147 3.6 4.9
Edgar Martinez Mariners 2001 581 16.0% 15.5% .236 157 3.1 4.7
Lance Berkman Astros 2005 565 16.1% 12.7% .231 144 3.0 2.7
Players with 16-20% walk rate, 12-16% strikeout rate, .230-290 ISO.

One week of peak Lance Berkman is obviously a different thing than a season of peak Lance Berkman. That said, it’s preferable to zero weeks of peak Lance Berkman — and, obviously, Mendick offers baserunning and defensive value that the players here didn’t. Whatever the case, Mendick is clearly capable of something atypical of a 22nd-round senior sign.

Isaac Paredes, 2B/SS, Detroit (Profile)
Paredes appeared among the Five for the time last week. Of Paredes, the current author wrote that “[p]layers who are 19 years old at High-A tend not to appear in this space, because 19-year-olds at High-A typically appear in a different space — namely, the sort that’s labeled Top 100 Prospects at the top of it.” Just seven days later, that passage is no longer relevant — not because Paredes has gotten older in the meantime, but because he’s actually been promoted. Now, instead of representing one of the few 19-year-olds at the High-A level, Paredes represents one of the even fewer 19-year-olds at Double-A. Indeed, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto are the only other teenagers to appear in the Eastern League this season.

His final week in the Florida State League was a strong one. Over 24 plate appearances, he recorded walk and strikeout rates of 12.5% and 16.7%, respectively, plus a .286 isolated-power figure. In his first game for Erie, he started at second, which might mark an (anticipated) move slightly down the defensive spectrum.

Luis Rengifo, 2B/SS, Los Angeles AL (Profile)
With this appearance among the Five, Regnifo now moves into third place on the haphazardly calculated Scoreboard situated at the bottom of this post. After beginning the season with High-A Inland Empire, Rengifo has ascended two levels, now essentially playing the same precise role for Salt Lake that Fringe Five alumnus David Fletcher, who’s recorded roughly a half-win in his first month as a major leaguer, occupied at the beginning of the season.

Fletcher is actually a pretty reasonable comp for Rengifo overall, both players featuring passable shortstop defense, contact-heavy approaches, and improbable power output. Just as with Fletcher, Rengifo seems to be creating more damage on contact without the benefit of a more fly-heavy approach. Whatever the case, it’s working: over his first 38 plate appearances at Triple-A, the Venezuela native has recorded walk and strikeout rates of 10.5% and 5.3%, respectively, while also producing a .265 isolated-power figure.

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Jeff McNeil, 2B, New York NL (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Eli Morgan, RHP, Cleveland (High-A Carolina League)
Mike Tauchman, OF, Colorado (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Ramon Urias, 2B, St. Louis (Double-A Texas League)
Taylor Ward, 3B, Los Angeles AL (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here is the top-10 list of players who have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season. For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.

Fringe Five Scoreboard, 2018
Name Team POS FF NF PTS
1 Josh James Astros RHP 9 1 28
2 David Fletcher Angels 2B/SS 6 0 18
3 Luis Rengifo Angels 2B/SS 4 3 15
4 Josh Rojas Astros 2B/3B 4 1 13
5 Chris Paddack Padres RHP 4 0 12
6 Cedric Mullins Orioles OF 3 2 11
7 Erik Swanson Yankees RHP 2 4 10
8 LaMonte Wade Twins OF 2 3 9
9 Danny Mendick White Sox SS 2 1 7
10 Dean Kremer Dodgers RHP 2 1 7
Nate Orf Brewers 2B/3B 2 1 7
12 Nicky Lopez Royals SS 2 1 7
13 Tony Gonsolin Dodgers RHP 2 1 7
14 Zack Short Cubs SS 2 1 7
Highlighted rows represent player who’s ineligible due either to (a) appearing on an updated top-prospect list or (b) currently residing on a 25-man roster.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

12 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
sadtrombonemember
5 years ago

I was pretty surprised to see Taylor Ward as a 3B, since last I checked he was a catcher, and had some decent defensive tools to work with. Lo and behold, he has been promoted to AAA, is playing 3B, and is totally raking.

I would be interested to see if he could catch with that offensive profile, but the Angels definitely don’t seem interested in that anymore.