The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced last April by the present author, wherein that same ridiculous author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists* and also (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on the midseason prospect lists produced by those same notable sources or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

*In this case, those produced by Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law, and our own Marc Hulet.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

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Seth Mejias-Brean, 3B, Cincinnati (Profile)
Either owing to his multiple appearance within this important weekly column or for some other, less likely reason, Mejias-Brean was promoted by the Reds to Double-A last week after recording walk and strikeout rates of 14.1% and 15.7%, respectively — plus also 11 home runs — over 313 plate appearances in the California League. A brief inspection of the internet reveals that the 23-year-old’s first week in Double-A has been a shockingly promising one. Through 26 PAs now with the Pensacola Blue Wahoos, Mejias-Brean has produced an 8:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio and also a home run.

Unfortunately, footage of that home run doesn’t appear readily available. In its place, is this still of Mejias-Brean just before facing his first Double-A pitch:

And then a disappointing GIF of that same prospect drawing a walk moments later:

Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto (Profile)
One could pretty reasonably dispute the notion that Norris is a fringe prospect. Indeed, the left-hander was drafted originally in the second round and appeared before the 2012 season on Baseball America’s top-100 list and has advanced through Toronto’s system with a celerity typical of more promising younger players. That said, he appeared on none of the relevant top-100 lists prior to this season — and, as a result, has perhaps received less of the attention of late that his recent achievement probably merits. As with Seth Mejias-Brean (above), Norris made his debut at Double-A last week after a promising half-season at High-A. Also like Mejias-Brean, Norris has produced startlingly proficient fielding-independent numbers so far, having recorded now a 19:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio after just two starts and 11.1 innings with the New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

Luigi Rodriguez, OF, Cleveland (Profile)
Of Luigi Rodriguez the editors of Baseball America write in their most recent Prospect Handbook both that “home runs won’t be his forte” and also that “place discipline has been an issue.” It is appropriately encouraging, therefore, that he has both improved upon his established home-run rates and also recorded decidedly more promising walk and strikeout rates (14.7% and 19.5%, respectively) over his 190 plate appearances at High-A Carolina. His last six games have been of particular note, during which interval the 21-year-old outfielder has produced a 5:2 walk-to-strikeout ratio and two home runs in 27 plate appearances. The emergence of either power or plate-discipline would complement the athleticism and footspeed for which Rodriguez has been already been praised.

David Rollins, LHP, Houston (Profile)
The author did not purposely set out this season to dedicate the largest part of these weekly Fringe Five pieces to pitchers within the Houston system; one could reasonably claim, however, that such a thing has happened. Josh Hader, Thomas Shirley, Kyle Smith, and Aaron West have all previously made appearances — in many cases, multiple appearances — among the Five. This week, a fifth Houston pitching prospect appears in the person of left-hander David Rollins. A 24th-round selection by Toronto in 2011 draft, Rollins was one of seven players acquired by Houston in a trade that sent David Carpenter, J.A. Happ, and Brandon Lyon to the Blue Jays in 2012. Through eight starts and 11 appearances within the Astros’ tandem system, Rollins has produced strikeout and walk rats of 25.8% and 6.5%, respectively, over 38.0 innings.

During his most recent appearance on June 20th against Frisco (box), he threw fastballs at 92-94 mph according to the Corpus Christi Hooks broadcast. Here’s an example of him throwing one of those types of pitches to very celebrated prospect Joey Gallo for a swinging strike three:

Blake Treinen, RHP, Washington (Profile)
Provided the author’s calculations from yesterday’s post aren’t terribly incorrect, Washington right-hander Blake Treinen’s WAR projection has improved by a greater margin since the beginning of the season than any other pitcher for whom a projection is currently available from either Steamer or ZiPS. Much of that improvement is likely to how, over 65.1 innings this year between Triple-A and the majors, Treinen has allowed zero home runs. Indeed, with a ground-ball rate of 59.8% so far with the Nationals, the 25-year-old right-hander has given opponents little opportunity to hit the requisite number of fly balls.

Treinen induces those ground balls by means of a sinker with terrific movement — such as the one here at 93 mph against Brandon Crawford from the former’s most recent major-league start, on June 12th:

A slow-motion version of which pitch is available here, as well:

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Aaron Blair, RHP, Arizona (High-A Califonria League)
Billy Mckinney, OF, Oakland (High-A Califonria League)
Dario Pizzano, OF, Seattle (Double-A Southern League)
Chris Taylor, SS, Seattle (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Shawn Zarraga, C, Milwaukee (Double-A Southern League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here are all the players to have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season. For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.

Name	Team	POS	FF	NF	PTS
Thomas Shirley	Astros	LHP	6	1	19
Jace Peterson	Padres	SS	5	2	17
Josh Hader	Astros	LHP	4	2	14
Robert Kral	Padres	C	3	5	14
Jose Ramirez	Indians	2B	4	1	13
Taylor Cole	Blue Jays	RHP	4	0	12
Billy Mckinney	Athletics	OF	2	5	11
Ben Lively	Reds	RHP	3	1	10
Seth Mejias-Brean	Reds	3B	3	1	10
Daniel Norris	Blue Jays	LHP	3	0	9
Andrew Aplin	Astros	OF	1	3	6
Bryan Mitchell	Yankees	RHP	1	3	6
Francellis Montas	White Sox	RHP	2	0	6
Michael Reed	Brewers	OF	2	0	6
Wesley Parsons	Braves	RHP	1	3	6
Aaron West	Astros	RHP	1	2	5
Adam Duvall	Giants	3B	1	2	5
Dario Pizzano	Mariners	OF	1	1	4
Shawn Zarraga	Brewers	C	1	1	4
Blake Treinen	Nationals	RHP	1	0	3
Cameron Rupp	Phillies	C	1	0	3
David Rollins	Astros	LHP	1	0	3
Kyle Hendricks	Cubs	RHP	1	0	3
Luigi Rodriguez	Indians	OF	1	0	3
Marco Gonzales	Cardinals	LHP	1	0	3
Ryan Rua	Rangers	3B	1	0	3
Tsuyoshi Wada	Cubs	LHP	1	0	3
Brian Johnson	Red Sox	LHP	0	2	2
Chris Taylor	Mariners	SS	0	2	2
Roberto Perez	Indians	C	0	2	2
Tommy La Stella	Braves	2B	0	2	2
Aaron Blair	D-backs	RHP	0	1	1
Billy Burns	Athletics	OF	0	1	1
Brett Eibner	Royals	OF	0	1	1
Conrad Gregor	Astros	1B	0	1	1
Danny Winkler	Rockies	RHP	0	1	1
Darnell Sweeney	Dodgers	2B/SS	0	1	1
Edwar Cabrera	Rangers	LHP	0	1	1
Jesse Winker	Reds	OF	0	1	1
Kyle Smith	Astros	RHP	0	1	1
Stephen Landazuri	Mariners	RHP	0	1	1
Tim Cooney	Cardinals	LHP	0	1	1
Ty Kelly	Mariners	2B/3B	0	1	1
Tyler Goeddel	Rays	3B	0	1	1