The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised top 100 released last week by Baseball America — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Wilmer Font, RHP, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
Last Friday, the right-handed Font struck out 10 of 20 batters he faced over 6.0 innings against Milwaukee’s Triple-A affiliate Colorado Springs (box). Last night, Font added seven more strikeouts against 23 batters in a game against the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in Iowa City (box). The result of those two starts? This: 12.0 IP, 43 TBF, 17 K (39.5%), 1 BB (2.3%), 7 H, 1 R. That’s quite good.

As to whether it’ll translate to the majors, the author of this post isn’t entirely confident. Consider: Font recorded four swinging strikes in the first inning of last Friday’s game. Here’s video of all four:

All four of those whiffs were produced by way of the fastball. The next three whiffs were produced by the fastball, as well. That’s a great deal of reliance on a pitch that — in terms of velocity, at least — is probably just average. The probability of a journeyman with an average fastball dominating major-league hitters with that same pitch is low. But minor-league success often begets major-league success, and Font has had a considerable amount of the former this year. As an alumnus of the indy leagues, his success is already improbable.

Danny Mendick, 2B, Chicago AL (Profile)
Mendick’s fringe credentials are beyond reproach. A product of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, he was selected by the White Sox in the 22nd round of the 2015 draft only after his senior year. It’s not a profile that often translates to a successful career in affiliated ball. But Mendick has played quite well, not only recording one of the lowest strikeout rates in the Carolina League but also an isolated-power figure that currently sits in about the 80th percentile among the league’s qualified batters.

Of perhaps even greater interest, however, is his defensive acumen. While having recorded most of his games as a second baseman this year, the numbers suggests that he provides value more reminiscent of a plus shortstop. According to Baseball Prospectus, he’s provided the equivalent of a win and a half defensively — in limited playing time — over each of the past two seasons. Clay Davenport’s methodology produces similarly impressive numbers, as the following table illustrates.

Danny Mendick, Defensive Runs
Year Level Pos Games Runs
2015 R SS 36 +12
2015 R 2B 8 +4
2016 A- SS 48 +10
2016 A- 2B 29 0
2017 A+ 2B 35 +9
2017 A+ 3B 8 0
SOURCE: Clay Davenport
Defensive numbers for seasons/levels at which he’s recorded more than 100 PA.

Mike Tauchman, OF, Colorado (Profile)
Tauchman appeared among the Five proper almost exactly a month ago. His inclusion, at that point, was due to largely to the combination of above-average contact and power numbers he’d produced relative to his peers in the Pacific Coast League — complemented by promising defensive numbers in center. Nearly midway through June, Tauchman still possesses above-average contact and power numbers relative to his PCL peers — and continues to complement that offensive profile with promising defensive numbers in center. This is already a great success for a former 10th-round draft pick.

The past week has been particularly strong for Tauchman. Over 24 plate appearances since the last edition of the Five, he’s recorded a 3:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio, two doubles, and two homers. He made three of five defensive starts in center field.

Nik Turley, LHP, Minnesota (Profile)
Last Friday, Turley appeared among the Five for the third time this year on the strength both of a strong week and very strong overall season. He appears here now because, in the meantime, he’s produced what is possibly the best start of all the minor leagues this year. Facing the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, Turley recorded a 15:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 24 batters over 6.0 innings, allowing just four hits and zero runs in the process(box) .

Turley appears to continue having success when he throws his fastball at the top of the zone and curveball at the bottom of it. Both sorts of pitches are featured in what follows — namely, video footage documenting some of Gleyber Torres’s whiffs against the very tall left-hander on Tuesday.

Ildemaro Vargas, 2B/SS, Arizona (Profile)
Like Turley, Vargas appeared among the Five last week. Also like Turley, he’s actually improved his seasonal numbers in the meantime. In 29 plate appearances since last Friday, the 25-year-old infielder has hit three doubles and two home runs while striking out only three times. Combined with a .500 batting average on balls in play, the result is a slash line (.500/.483/.821) nonsensical for multiple reasons.

With elite contact skills and better-than-average defensive skills, Vargas really only needs to experience modest success on batted balls. Currently, he possesses a .157 isolated-power figure — i.e. almost precisely league average for the PCL (.154). That’s something more than modest success.

Here’s an example of Vargas experiencing something more than modest success against Felix Hernandez this past Tuesday:

And another such instance from the day after — in this case, from the other side of the plate:

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Austin Hays, OF, Baltimore (High-A Carolina League)
Tim Locastro, SS/CF, Los Angeles NL (Double-A Texas League)
Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City (High-A Carolina League)
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Tampa Bay (High-A Florida State League)
Sean Murphy, C, Oakland (High-A California League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here is the top-10 list of players who have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season. For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.

Fringe Five Scoreboard, 2017
Name Team POS FF NF PTS
1 Ildemaro Vargas D-backs 2B/SS 3 3 12
2 Nik Turley Twins LHP 4 0 12
3 Max Schrock Athletics 2B 3 2 11
4 Brandon Lowe Rays 2B 2 3 9
5 Wilmer Font Dodgers RHP 3 0 9
6 Michael Russell Rays 2B/SS 2 2 8
7 Nicky Lopez Royals SS 1 5 8
8 Mike Tauchman Rockies OF 2 1 7
9 Jason Vosler Cubs 3B 2 0 6
10 Josh Morgan Rangers SS/C 2 0 6
11 Scott Kingery Phillies 2B 2 0 6
12 Tzu-Wei Lin Red Sox SS/CF 2 0 6





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Brandon Warnemember
6 years ago

I think the Phillies would be thrilled to have Gleyber in their system, but alas, I believe SWB is now the Yankees’ AAA affiliate.