The Headaches of Suggested Trade Returns

This is my last post before baseball’s regular season gets underway. That means, anything that needs to be written before 2010 kicks off, needs to be written now. I’ve chosen to make the most of this closing window by previewing an issue that I guarantee will be written about extensively throughout this season, which just so happens to be the big trade return.

There are a few subsets under this. I’ll focus on two in particular: 1) The free agent to be and 2) the minor league signee who lights it up. Pretty transparently named, but here’s a rundown of each.

The Free Agent to Be

Let’s use Carl Crawford. After the season he will reach free agency. He’s no guarantee to acquire Type-A free agent compensation. Say he does, though; at the deadline, if the Rays are not 150 games ahead of the rest of the American League, undoubtedly some will wonder whether the Rays will trade Crawford or let him walk for nothing. Sky Kalkman put together a great resource for comparative analysis between draft picks and prospects that, in theory, would sprinkle some logic into hot and heavy rosterbation sessions. Only since have we found that to be impossible.

More to the point, though. People overrate returns on players like Crawford all the time. No, he’s not bringing back Buster Posey. Everybody wants shiny prospects but nobody wants to tell their player goodbye until the season’s outcomes are definitive. That will not stop people from wondering out loud as to whether Crawford for Wandy Rodriguez and Hunter Pence is a fair deal come July 30th.

The Minor League Signee

Sticking to the Rays roster for an example, let’s go with Hank Blalock. A month ago, Blalock was without a job and had to choose between minor league offers from the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays. A few weeks later, he may or may not make the opening day roster. Either way, nothing, I repeat, nothing he’s done since is going to alter his market value dramatically. As much as his agent and the Rays wish a sucker rally would develop, it’s just highly, highly unlikely.

Teams have years and years of data on a guy like Blalock, why would three weeks worth of spring data change his market from two minor league deals to a flood of trade offers that have any modicum of value? Even an injury at this stage in the game does not mean Blalock is suddenly going to become an attractive option.

And yes, I’m well aware this post isn’t preventing or curbing either of these scenarios from popping up all across the internet. But, if it stops just one brain-numbing proposal from being written about, then I think I’ve done my part.